Heavy rain beginning to spread into the area. Tornadoes are going to be LIKELY across Jersey and maybe as far west as Philly. That tail across the ocean is fierce. Out this way, I'm dead smack in the middle of the high risk for excessive rainfall
The speed of this thing might be what saves us from even worse flooding. It'll be booking, so a quick soaking is likely. 2-4" likely, pockets of more. Flooding is likely too, just the speed will limit anything too severe I think. We shall see
Temp already back up to 82 and very soupy out. Severe parameters ramping up again. Will we see what we just saw this morning? Probably not. But some discrete cells capable of hail/wind definitely possible. Supercell Composite shooting up nicely. Will be interesting to see how destabilized we can get again...
Sun fully out again, dare I say a rare two-storms in one day occurrence? Atmosphere is very stabilzed behind the MCS but western and central PA have exploded with their severe parameters. Lapse rates will need to recover because there is no buoyancy in the atmosphere right now. But I think with enough sun, we'll be able to boost CAPE and bring in some discrete cells later...
The amount of trees down and damage across Berks County is insane right now. Go to the Fire Alerts of Berks Facebook page to see all the damage. It's incredible.
Went to the top of the nearby hiking spot to catch some pics. Once I got the 80mph warning and saw some lightning I booked it down, got to my car just in time. The first mile drive back the wind was incredible. I almost was blown off the road and trees/branches were literally falling all around me and flying into my car. I parked on the side of the road in a field with no trees around and thank God I did. Massive trees down across southern Berks. This is the pic I got, if I waited any longer I was gonna be in trouble. Maybe not my smartest decision but I'm alive.
Sun beginning to peek through here with low-level clouds burning up, SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE already over 2000 J/kg and LI at -5. Lapse rates are poor, but hopefully we'll have enough lift from the pre-frontal trough to initiate strong convection. Plenty of fuel to be tapped for the first decent severe threat in quite awhile. I'd bet with the decently high PWAT values we see some decent downburst winds.