Newman

I'm holding onto that Euro run like everyone holding onto their GME shares

Snows for 2 days!

That Euro run would rival the greatest. I think we can increase the QPF. Just clean it up a tad more. This could be the one

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The big story in the long term remains the low pressure system Sunday into late Monday, which could be a classic What has changed: No major changes with this forecast update. Guidance came in to some better agreement with the track of the low, but even with the minor differences, could result in significant changes as far as impacts to our region. Thus, for the latest forecast update, stayed close to the previous forecast and a blend of guidance. Timing: There are still some large differences between models with the timing of this system. Precipitation could come in as early as Sunday afternoon, and could linger as late as Tuesday, depending on how progressive the system is. Precipitation type: As mentioned above, the track will be a big factor in the ultimate impacts for our region, especially with regards to precipitation type. The closer the low gets to our region, the more likely we are see wintry mix across the region. If the track is further south, as some of the operational models are trending, it could be more snow. Precipitation amounts: We won`t have a better idea on precipitation amounts through this event until at least Saturday.

Need a more consolidated h500 signature. Also, a tighter closed upper low. Would help to eliminate this "blotchy" precip distribution we're seeing. Even with a messier look, models still show the potential for 12"+. If we can get pieces to come together crisper...

Euro run is amazing. How can it be better? Phase that northern piece in earlier.

Top 3 CIPS analogs off that 12z GFS run: 1. 2015 Juno 2. Blizzard of 2016 3. Blizzard of 1996 (The King)

Yeah Navy CCB's the entirety of EPA

Miller B/C storms like to jump east. It's why I wouldn't mind some NW and amped solutions right now. Also, you can't forget alot of times eastern PA/Western Jersey is where the "shadow" effect occurs in these events. Kinda saw that on the GFS. The coastal forms well east and all the overrunning precip gets choked out and we are in the subsidence zone. Just stuff to watch out for. It's only 4.5 days away

That backside northern vort was wayyyy slower this run. Captures it further east. Lets be real, these storms favor SNE typically. But still a decent run for northern and eastern sections. So much CF too on the models with them unable to figure out the phasing. This is gonna be a headache up until hour 0.

March 1958 being thrown around. The famous storm that dropped 50" out here in Berks/Lancaster.... Regardless, these Miller B/C events all follow a common theme. I'm not saying we're getting 50" lol, but if we can clean up the overall h500 I think we're in an ideal spot to catch this one. Long time away still, Sunday it comes in.

Snowing by 12pm Sunday AND STILL GOING BY TUESDAY EVENING Insane long duration, 48+ hours

I'll take this GEFS mean for the meantime. We're 5 days out, this storm comes in at hr120 on the GFS. We'll see if it slows down in evolution at all. A slower solution would favor us. Would allow the backside vort coming down the spine of the western ridge to catch quicker, phase, and boom...

Where you can get the overrunning plus the pivot will jackpot. The VA/DCA area got it on that Euro run. Typically, these like to move north. We will see....

I'm just hoping for 2-3" from this down here in Lanco. Then we hope for the Thursday storm...

Strong block... RIC to DCA pattern? Hopefully not. I think we will score between the 25th and 30th. We'll have two chances

Looks like a +12 high temperature departure today, forecasted high of 47. Great day to get outside. Off topic, but any hikers here? Check out Rickets Glen State Park up in Sullivan County sometime. Went yesterday and they had 5" of snow on the ground and ice everywhere. Very dangerous! We're talking 4 foot wide ledges covered in 2" ice directly next to 80' waterfall cliffs. Scary times, would recommend going in the summer if you're not experienced in winter hiking or are afraid of heights lol. Here's a pic I took of the 96' waterfall they got there. Anyway, looking at the next 10 days, its primarily two words to describe it: Cold and Dry.

Well the snowpack is all gone but just had some nice light snow for about 20 minutes. Nice!

GFS coming in flatter once again for the Christmas Eve system, tries to bring some backside snows down closer to the coast this run

Saw that too, sneaky system. Any snow won't have a hard time accumulating on the snow we already have down. Also, models picking up on a small clipper like piece of energy trying to swing through Monday night

The Atlantic block and 50/50 goes away which is a shame because, if we had it to slow the flow, this might be a great storm threat. Verbatim, the west coast ridge is in a perfect Boise-centered location until it rolls over on us and pushes the trough out. It's still close though. Will be interesting to watch. In the meantime, I need some rest from tracking this past storm.

March 2017 storm? The great sleet storm in that one, 14" total even though was advertised 2 feet in the medium range (just like this storm). I'd say this one was fairly close in many regards. It acted more like a SWFE. On another note, anyone see those 40"+ reports coming from NY? Insanity! Those Kuchera maps verified after all, which doesn't surprise me. Deep cold air with such a moist system will create insane ratios and totals.

You're right! I measured too early haha. Went out this morning and another inch fell. 10.5" storm total. Solid storm. Getting into work this morning was a nightmare.