Newman

GEFS a rather significant increase for some areas, especially South-Central PA. 12z on top, 18z on bottom

Not a fan of the RGEM or NAM. Shows the classic EPA Miller B screw zone setting up. Not saying its gonna happen, but much higher possibility now.

Haven't stayed up for a Euro run yet this winter, figured I'll roll the dice tonight. Btw, just for fun, here was the ICON snowfall:

I don't think that'll phase in, but this piece.... this is the one that matters IMO. Even if we do have a "too south" solution in the end, this piece helps to slingshot the low up the coast. Then we get sloppy seconds with a matured low. But hey, better than nothing and this slipping east. And if the storm isn't too south? Well then that piece helps to rejuvenate the low off the coast and pivot it back to the coast. That piece is everything in my opinion between a 6-10" storm and an 18-24" storm. I'm still young, but over the years I've grown weary of average storms. My mentality is go big or go home. I'm not the biggest fan of snow, but I love tracking MECS and potential HECS events. Especially when you have models print out incredible amounts, it's dangerous. It's like a drug, the last hit might have been great... the next one you want even better. Perhaps why this is such a mentally exhausting hobby... '

If we get this too fast, it misses any chance of phasing with that backside vort. Then it's Juno 2.0. I think slower is better here. Too fast and you risk east slippage. Too late and perhaps you risk too amped. But I'll always take my chances with an amped and tucked closed 500 below me with a fresh arctic cold air mass in place.

I don't think that piece of confluence is all that bad. It forces the low formation a bit further south around the OBX. Then the storm would crawl up to the delmarva and stall as another piece of energy dives in the backside and pulls it back. Would you rather have a low form at the VA Capes/OBX? Or one that forms at the Delmarva? Based on past experience with Juno, I know what I pick...

I'm holding onto that Euro run like everyone holding onto their GME shares

Snows for 2 days!

That Euro run would rival the greatest. I think we can increase the QPF. Just clean it up a tad more. This could be the one

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The big story in the long term remains the low pressure system Sunday into late Monday, which could be a classic What has changed: No major changes with this forecast update. Guidance came in to some better agreement with the track of the low, but even with the minor differences, could result in significant changes as far as impacts to our region. Thus, for the latest forecast update, stayed close to the previous forecast and a blend of guidance. Timing: There are still some large differences between models with the timing of this system. Precipitation could come in as early as Sunday afternoon, and could linger as late as Tuesday, depending on how progressive the system is. Precipitation type: As mentioned above, the track will be a big factor in the ultimate impacts for our region, especially with regards to precipitation type. The closer the low gets to our region, the more likely we are see wintry mix across the region. If the track is further south, as some of the operational models are trending, it could be more snow. Precipitation amounts: We won`t have a better idea on precipitation amounts through this event until at least Saturday.

Need a more consolidated h500 signature. Also, a tighter closed upper low. Would help to eliminate this "blotchy" precip distribution we're seeing. Even with a messier look, models still show the potential for 12"+. If we can get pieces to come together crisper...

Euro run is amazing. How can it be better? Phase that northern piece in earlier.

Top 3 CIPS analogs off that 12z GFS run: 1. 2015 Juno 2. Blizzard of 2016 3. Blizzard of 1996 (The King)

Yeah Navy CCB's the entirety of EPA

Miller B/C storms like to jump east. It's why I wouldn't mind some NW and amped solutions right now. Also, you can't forget alot of times eastern PA/Western Jersey is where the "shadow" effect occurs in these events. Kinda saw that on the GFS. The coastal forms well east and all the overrunning precip gets choked out and we are in the subsidence zone. Just stuff to watch out for. It's only 4.5 days away

That backside northern vort was wayyyy slower this run. Captures it further east. Lets be real, these storms favor SNE typically. But still a decent run for northern and eastern sections. So much CF too on the models with them unable to figure out the phasing. This is gonna be a headache up until hour 0.

March 1958 being thrown around. The famous storm that dropped 50" out here in Berks/Lancaster.... Regardless, these Miller B/C events all follow a common theme. I'm not saying we're getting 50" lol, but if we can clean up the overall h500 I think we're in an ideal spot to catch this one. Long time away still, Sunday it comes in.

Snowing by 12pm Sunday AND STILL GOING BY TUESDAY EVENING Insane long duration, 48+ hours

I'll take this GEFS mean for the meantime. We're 5 days out, this storm comes in at hr120 on the GFS. We'll see if it slows down in evolution at all. A slower solution would favor us. Would allow the backside vort coming down the spine of the western ridge to catch quicker, phase, and boom...

Where you can get the overrunning plus the pivot will jackpot. The VA/DCA area got it on that Euro run. Typically, these like to move north. We will see....

I'm just hoping for 2-3" from this down here in Lanco. Then we hope for the Thursday storm...