Newman

Lol true, they both suck how about that

Para-GFS shifted a bit west too

Imagine 30 hours out from right now one model gives Philly 3.5", and another gives Philly 17.5".... well that's the difference between the American guidance NAM and GFS. Thirty. Hours. Out.

LOL GFS parks it into Southern Jersey. I mean, I won't complain, but it's now on the far western side of all guidance. And I mean FAR western side.

Mount Holly upped Berks from 10-15" to 12-16" on the latest WSW. Lehigh and Poconos area 16-24". Updated map:

Yes, but the key word is EAST. Everything is one way or another shifting east. You are better in some models, like the RGEM, for simply being more east. However, other models like the NAM you are unfortunately a tad too south despite being east. One way or another, I think most here see 6".

Again, I'm not throwing in the towel yet. Maybe we can stop the trend east? But it's just so predictable how Miller B's end up.

This morning had promise, but it's obvious every model is ticking less and less sharp/neutral with the trough. PVA orientation is also not as favorable. We're not getting the energy to back into the coast as much. These differences are not much, we're talking 10s of miles. But each time you tick this a couple more miles east, eventually you're sitting under heavy subsidence while NYC and Monmouth county (surprise surprise) rake it in.

And the NE shift continues

Snow has stopped, 1 inch on the board

Euro definite shift SE with heaviest totals. Not bad for most. Still very very worried here about being on the edge. At this point, what can you do though. Time to let it all play out. It's been fun tracking this one with y'all

I made it home back in Berks, snow coming down nicely here.

3k and 12k couldn't be any more different for the Lehigh Valley and Berks. 6-12" on the 3k, 16-24" on the 12k

IMO, the NAM 500mb changes were not miniscule or a "tick". It appears small, but just look at how much more those heights back into the coast from 6z. Plus the trough is trying to dig deeper as well. It's not much, you're right. But considering the NAM was well on the east side of guidance, all I was looking for was for it to come back west. Which it did.

Ticks mean everything at this range. Especially with this CCB

NAM should come further west this run. Everything at 500mb at 15 hours screams it will

Dry out there, any "snow" the radar was showing over my area so far this morning has been virga.

I can't go back to sleep, I think I'm gonna head back home today considering class is almost guaranteed to move virtual for Monday/Tuesday. I think Lanco will get 12+, But Berks and home has increasing chances of this being 20+"

Bump

Just loop the past 3 runs of both the NAM and RGEM at 500mb. I'm not posting the GIF's but: 1.) The RGEM is becoming LESS amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough. 2.) The NAM is becoming MORE amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough. Middle ground consensus? It was clear the RGEM shifted NE. It was also clear the NAM came back west (and maybe could have even more). Jackpot is gonna be east of where the RGEM has it, west of where the NAM has it. Middle ground for everyone. Everyone wins. Goodnight