Newman
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Everything posted by Newman
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Even "surface" temps of 33-34 could mean power lines and elevated surfaces are still cold enough (around 31-32) with the recent cold nights for ice accretion. I still think Berks/Lehigh Valley will see some decent icing Tuesday but guidance has been trending the other direction.
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GFS is just insanity. Places would need consecutive ice storm warnings days apart. We have a chance of light freezing rain Sunday/Monday. Then the Tuesday system (which hopefully trends colder in the mid levels to reduce ice and increase snow) and then the Thursday/Friday system which the Euro likes for more snow than ice, GFS disagrees as of now. Active week ahead
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More ice Thursday and Friday. Here's a clown freezing rain map of both storms. If you're into destruction of the power grid you'll love this upcoming week
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Usually the NAM is good at picking up on CAD and surface cold. But just a quick glance at the MOS guidance and it still looks a bit warmer than I expected. We'll see, I think this weekend is a "nuisance" but still dangerous, ice event. Maybe 0.1-0.2" accretion, which is still dangerous like I said. But the real ice events come Tuesday and Friday IMO.
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Temps in the low-mid 20s
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GFS is really something. Heavy snow and 10F up here in Berks Tuesday morning. Warm layer moving in quick though. Regardless, it's an all frozen event for most. If the press is real, I could see many staying all snow for the interior. If not, it's a 6-8" thump to ice. Not a long-duration storm, only 10-12 hours
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46.5" so far in Fleetwood. I don't take measurements or keep track in Millersville.
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Mean Total QPF on the plumes is 0.56" at KPHL. Do your own ratios however you please
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SREFs plumes increased from 3.5" to 5.5" at KPHL since last run
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Temps in the teens as the storm rolls in next Tuesday. Definitely looking like a "25F and freezing rain" type of storm as of now with the warm mid-levels but strong high pressure anchored in place overhead in SE Canada.
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10:1 ratios are still nearly 5" into Philly
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Saturday/Sunday on the Euro
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Total Euro QPF
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GFS nice out here with Kuchera (if we are to believe ratios will be higher). 4-6" in South Central PA
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GFS says I'll surpass 60" on the season by this time next week
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3.5" in Fleetwood. Elevation helped out with accumulation. Season total now at 44.5"
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Long range HRRRRRR
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3k NAM says 16" in Philly (at 10:1 ratio)
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NAM is a monster hit for most.
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1.5" of snow in Fleetwood this morning. Now just a mist/flurries.
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3k NAM would be a good hit
