Newman

Well he hasn't said too much, I'll have to talk to him about it and I'll even bring up your question to ask. However, I do know that it's known that towards the very end/beginning of new solar cycles, that the solar sun spots, CMEs, flares, coronal holes etc. all start closer to the poles of the sun and stronger. As the cycle progresses -> these features move towards the equator of the sun and also subsequently weaken in intensity as well. Here in Millersville, 28 degrees and just some freezing mist/drizzle that has encased my car with a sheet of ice...

I'm minoring in Space Weather and Heliophysics here at Millersville. I agree that the sun is without a doubt a huge driver to even our weather at times through the Global Electric Circuit. An active sun with plenty of solar activity has a higher chance to eject SEPs towards Earth which can interact with our ionosphere, transfer down into the lower atmospheric levels through the GEC.... The sun is important lets just say that haha. Still only light pixie dust falling here, might have around 3-4"

I appreciate your reports, it gives me an idea of what it's like in Fleetwood when I'm down in Millersville. Snow has all but stopped here in Millersville, in a brief lull/area of subsidence

Congrats man, glad you're getting pounded! Only about 2.5-3" out here in Millersville. Moderate snow

This sucks, rates just haven't been too great here all morning despite decent radar returns. Only 2.5" so far. Back to ODE work I guess...

Read the key, totals are in *centimeters* because apparently that's how we measure snow now lol. I thought it was a joke too. Snowing nicely in Millersville, probably only around 2" just eyeballing

School, classes, life is busy haha. Plus I had a date last night. So unfortunately no model checking during that time. Plus my crazy ex gf won't leave me alone, thinking about a restraining order.... anyway, I think a general 4-8" followed by a lull and then some sleet or ice is the forecast. Possibly lollis to 10 somewhere.

HRRR came in much warmer btw

10 years since the last Ice Storm Warning from Mt Holly... unreal

Ice storm warning for those NW

Most of the individual HREF short range models paint at least 0.5" of ice across Berks and the Lehigh Valley. Remember, the freezing rain accretion maps are almost always overdone. But 0.25-0.5" of ice seems likely IMO

Completely agree. It's dry out there, so if rates are too little it obviously won't accrete. We were under a freezing fog advisory maybe a couple months back, and let me tell ya the roads were hella slippery even after something like that. I don't think todays storm and Tuesday are too comparable QPF wise. Tuesday will be loaded with gulf moisture.

If the freezing rain comes down too heavy, however, you won't see as much accrual. Those big rain drops will require a lot more energy to freeze compared to smaller drizzle drops. Also, you can't forget about the latent heat aspect of the rain turning from liquid to ice on contact. That is essentially why its so hard to get significant icing events sometimes. Because the surface naturally warms as the rain transitions in state from liquid -> solid.... Anyway, this isn't a long duration storm. It's modeled to be like an 8-10ish hour storm max. If you can lock in the cold just enough for those NW, I don't see how places escape a moderate icing event

Temps warm up considerably Tuesday afternoon after the storm passes However, by Wednesday morning we're back in the low teens

Sleeting here in Millersville

Even "surface" temps of 33-34 could mean power lines and elevated surfaces are still cold enough (around 31-32) with the recent cold nights for ice accretion. I still think Berks/Lehigh Valley will see some decent icing Tuesday but guidance has been trending the other direction.

GFS is just insanity. Places would need consecutive ice storm warnings days apart. We have a chance of light freezing rain Sunday/Monday. Then the Tuesday system (which hopefully trends colder in the mid levels to reduce ice and increase snow) and then the Thursday/Friday system which the Euro likes for more snow than ice, GFS disagrees as of now. Active week ahead

More ice Thursday and Friday. Here's a clown freezing rain map of both storms. If you're into destruction of the power grid you'll love this upcoming week

Usually the NAM is good at picking up on CAD and surface cold. But just a quick glance at the MOS guidance and it still looks a bit warmer than I expected. We'll see, I think this weekend is a "nuisance" but still dangerous, ice event. Maybe 0.1-0.2" accretion, which is still dangerous like I said. But the real ice events come Tuesday and Friday IMO.

Temps in the low-mid 20s

GFS is really something. Heavy snow and 10F up here in Berks Tuesday morning. Warm layer moving in quick though. Regardless, it's an all frozen event for most. If the press is real, I could see many staying all snow for the interior. If not, it's a 6-8" thump to ice. Not a long-duration storm, only 10-12 hours