Newman

High probability of severe wind in the new watch Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Low (10%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes Low (5%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (70%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (10%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Low (20%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (<5%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (90%)

Lots of low level 0-1km veering on the 3k NAM for NYC tomorrow afternoon. Limited CAPE and surface heating though compared to recent events.

Pressure down to 998 at 5pm, still 70mph TS

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms have developed over western NY as of 16z within an air mass characterized by moderate MLCAPE and generally weak (at or below 25 kts) effective shear values. Despite the lack of large-scale forcing, additional thunderstorm development is anticipated over central portions of NY and in the vicinity of a surface trough from the Delaware Valley into southern New England as remaining weak MLCIN is removed through daytime heating, with multiple multicell clusters moving generally east/southeast this afternoon. A belt of enhanced westerly flow averaging 35-40 kts will result in a risk for damaging downburst winds with the stronger storms and clusters. Generally weak deep-layer shear and poor mid-level lapse rates will temper the hail risk, however a few stronger updrafts may be capable of marginally severe hail. Given the expected development, one or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches is expected by early afternoon.

Euro is a scraper, gets it down to 988 off the Cape

11pm update: 65mph winds and 1004mb pressure

Also, marginal risk of storms today for wind and hail ...Northeast States... A seasonably cold mid-level low over Lake Erie should drift east across northern PA through tonight. While pervasive cloud coverage this morning will slow boundary-layer heating, breaks in the clouds should support weak buoyancy this afternoon from central PA into southern NY and NJ. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and the presence of an elongated hodograph owing to strong mid to upper-level speed shear should support potential for hail growth as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop to the east-southeast of the low. Isolated marginally severe hail will likely be the primary threat, in addition to possible tree damage from locally gusty winds.

Current radar from Barbados: https://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro/RadarPro5_displayer.php?subDir=Dir_400KM&PlanetOfTheApes=212 Last frame appears that a formidable eye is trying to form and convection is attempting to wrap fully around the COC

6z GFS brings Elsa into western Florida then up the coast

Cousin is heading to Sarasota for vacation Sunday-Sunday this coming week. Told her probably not the best idea but track/forecast changes are always possible. The entire state of Florida, and all SE states, should be preparing

Loooong way out, and tropical systems are notorious for forecast changes, but we have the first real threat to the US with Elsa that just formed. If it can make it through the Caribbean without getting shredded, I wouldn't put our area at 0% chance of impact. Will be interesting to watch this evolve

First cone:

Nothing like you guys out in Franklin and Adams, but got some good probably 50mph gusts roll through the Holtwood area. Branches down, nothing major though

Heading to southern LANCO, Pinnacle Overlook, to see what I can catch with this

Anybody is better than Simmons. His decision to pass though he had an open dunk sealed the deal for me last night. It's downright pathetic, and what an awful way to end an otherwise great regular season. Embiid needs another star

I'm traveling up with a buddy to Tiadaghton State Forest in Lycoming a week from now to do a 3-4 day backpacking trip on the Black Forest Trail. Fingers crossed 1. The heat breaks for us and 2. The forecast is dry.

Even though there isn't a strong source of lift (frontal, orographic, convergence), the 12z soundings from around the area had a Convective-T of 90F. With SBCAPE and the LI already fairly high, low level lapse rates booming, enough sky clearing, and the LFC/LCL in favorable tandem.... we SHOULD see some afternoon/evening pulse downpours, especially with the PWATs very high. Relying on convective lifting isn't always a best bet around here (would much rather prefer a front), but it's better than nothing! Hoping for some storms later.

The 12z early morning sounding from KIAD had a Convective T of 90F. Will almost surely reach that later, and with enough sun and clearing, possibly some pulse downpours later with PWATs fairly high??

* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon initially across southeast Pennsylvania into Maryland/Virginia Blue Ridge vicinity. A relatively moist/unstable environment along with moderately strong southwesterly deep-layer winds will support sustained multicells and potentially some supercells. Thunderstorm-related wind damage is the most probable risk, but some hail and a low tornado risk will exist as well.

CPC highlighting the western Caribbean mid month for development