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Newman

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Everything posted by Newman

  1. Newman
    Henri doesn't look so good on vis right now. LL swirl still well north and displaced of the deep convection. Most models don't have intensification until it reaches OBX latitude though.
  2. Newman
    Euro pins the Catskills with 12-14" of rain. Irene all over again. Dear Lord.
  3. Newman
    Yeah holy crap. Catskills have a 12-14" showing up, that would be absolutely horrific.
  4. Newman
  5. Newman
    Huge rains for inland areas on the Euro. I'm not familiar with NY climo per-say, but I'd imagine you'd get some nice orographic enhancement on the east side of the Catskills with this trajectory?
  6. Newman
  7. Newman
    Euro came nearly 100 miles west, rain doesn't make it to EPA but trend is your friend
  8. Newman
  9. Newman
    Timing of this has definitely sped up. We're looking at a landfall early Sunday now, rainfall could last through Monday (if these west trends continue)
  10. Newman
  11. Newman
    12z UKMET rainfall
  12. Newman
    12z RGEM just upped rainfall amounts, bringing this and stalling it over Eastern PA
  13. Newman
    Something like the 6z RGEM would be pretty bad for Philly on east. Wind won't be a factor here, it'll be the rainfall and flooding if anything and coastal erosion/surf. I'm still not convinced this doesn't landfall across eastern LI and much of this area gets nothing, but the trends keep going west. Remember, many of our tropical systems up here are cemented into history for their flooding, not their wind.
  14. Newman
    These western members that take it into NYC would certainly impact the Philly region. Rain shield to the west, tors and wind to the east
  15. Newman
    Nearly 100 miles. From south of the Cape to south of the tip of Long Island
  16. Newman
    Final Ukie rainfall, holy smokes
  17. Newman
  18. Newman
    Bingo, Berks county is in the infamous radar hole. There's been talks here at Millersville University to putting in a radar to serve the local counties for this reason. Regardless, the radar beams would not have been able to pick up on the low-level rotation when the beams shoot well above it.
  19. Newman
    Remember that Irene dropped 3-7" of rain across much of New England and caused tremendous problems in many places, you don't need Harvey levels of rain to destroy things.
  20. Newman
    Yes tropical rainfall is of the "warm rain" variety not the "cold rain" we typically think of in most cases. I have no idea if these numerical models take into account the differing cloud physics and precip processes that occur, so I can't speak to that. But regardless, yes it's why radar has a hard time at picking up on proper dbZ values in tropical systems
  21. Newman
    Strongest gusts stay confined to the coast. Boston would try to gust 40-50mph. Inland just breezy but that's not to say no impacts. Flooding would be pretty bad.
  22. Newman
  23. Newman
    Compared to 0z, I don't think you can definitively say the 6z EPS came west (at least compared to the base mean). But certainly more spread and more members that take it further west. The loop and stall is still evident on many of the members
  24. Newman
    Huge flashes of lightning and loud thunder here
  25. Newman
    2230z UNK 4 E HALIFAX DAUPHIN PA MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED.
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