Newman

Some 4-5"+ radar indicated amounts from overnight across northern Berks and into the Lehigh Valley

Quite a few damage reports from Berks county. Trees and power lines down across much of west central Berks

Mount Holly on tomorrow: Guidance consensus suggests a stripe of MLCAPE values around 1000+ J/kg ahead of the front driven by low-level WAA and cooling in the mid-levels as it pushes into eastern PA and New Jersey. This combined with very favorable forcing for convection is expected to result in the development of widespread thunderstorms in the 21-00Z timeframe. The mesoscale and hi-res guidance has been consistent in developing a potent LLJ ~30-40 kts in the 00-03Z timeframe across Delmarva, SE PA, and New Jersey immediately ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front and leading mid-level shortwave. Forecast effective SRH values are fairly high (200-250 m2/s2) and effective inflow layer shear on the order of 25-30 kts. The 06Z and 12Z NAM hint at a secondary low pressure maxima developing along the front, which would further back the surface winds in the warm sector and increase the SRH. Deep layer shear appears to be on the order of 35- 40 kts immediately ahead of the cold front. These shear and kinematic values will be supportive of organized convection and rotating updrafts. The mean flow being largely parallel to the cold front suggests a mainly linear convective mode, but cannot totally rule out a few more discrete cells, especially ahead of the main front.

Tornado risk tomorrow

Storms Wednesday evening??

The next chance for storms will be Wednesday with an approaching cold front. Will need to watch this period both for severe and flooding potential, as the GFS/CMC QPF would suggest localized 1-2 inch totals are possible (despite modest PWs, at least compared to what we have seen recently), and the progged CAPE-shear parameter space is favorable for some strong to severe storms along the front.

Other than RadarScope, what other radar apps or programs do y'all recommend, especially for something like base velocity maps, correlation coefficient, etc? I know the weather.cod.edu site offers those for free, but the radar gridding is too coarse and is not valuable

It's chilly out there tonight, feels like fall

I cant remember a remnant storm that caused so much devastation. Cat 4 (nearly 5) landfall with a trough interaction taking it towards a perfect track ENE into the area. A storm many from Louisiana to New England will never forget

House's leveled or completely destroyed, cars blown around and picked up, trees/power lines completely stripped and sheared. Just things you don't see in south Jersey. Chasing behind the tornado (we couldn't see it because of the RFD and rain shield), we were apparently 1-2 minutes behind it and transformers were blowing everywhere so we knew we were right on it. Unfortunately (fortunately?) we didn't catch a clear view of the twister, but eh there's plenty of videos out on Twitter of it. We set up base just a smidge to the SE of the rotation in an open field to catch the best, yet safest, view possible. The inflow into the supercell was incredible. The wind howled and had an eerie whistle. Like a train. We saw a rotating wall cloud directly in front of us, but as soon as it passed us trees began to obscure the view. But we knew it was there, the radar velocity signatures were getting stronger. So we paralleled the storm and tried hard to catch up. At one point, we made a right instead of going straight which may have saved our lives. Like I said, we were 1-2 minutes behind the storm, well if we had gone straight and not detoured we would have driven directly into it.

I chased the Mullica Hill NJ tornado yesterday, here are some damage photos for anyone interested. At first, my chase team intercepted the apparent Oxford tornado, it was rain wrapped so we couldn't see anything. We then headed to NJ for one last gasp and got more than we bargained for.

Listening to some of the folks from this neighborhood, one person said "You know I NEVER took these warnings seriously. My wife used to always get pissed about it. Now look..."

I tried compressing some of the images, I'll post some of the damage photos I took from Mullica Hill here.

That's my photo on the bottom!! My 4 chaser friends and I were posting to Twitter and what not. This neighborhood that got destroyed isn't a trailer park, or low-end socioeconomic area. No, these are massive houses absolutely leveled. I can't describe what I saw yesterday in words, you truly have to see it to believe it. Straight out of Oklahoma

I chased Mullica Hill with 4 other friends guys. Un-*******-believable damage. I've never seen anything like this in my life. At least an EF4. Saw the wall cloud and strong rotation, but we were in an open field to the SE of the storm away from it. We then drove on the backside of the storm and caught the damage. House's leveled, trees absolutely sheared apart. My images are too big to post here for some reason

@CoolHandMike How's the flooding in Berks?

Flooding is getting bad in Lancaster. And we've got hours left, not looking good. Also, low level rotation will be hard to pick up, especially far away from radars. So keep that in mind...

Geez flooding has started to get really bad here in Millersville. And we've got hours of this left

Millersville University just cancelled classes and will be closing at 1pm

South and East of that line has the best shot at tornados later. Lancaster seems to be in an odd spot: not exactly in the "heaviest" rain axis but also not SE enough for the best Tornado chance. However, I assume as this begins to shift a bit east the axis of rain will also shift with it

WPC forecast

Don't see either of these too often. High Risk in Flooding and 10% tor probs