bubbler86

Just saw the map posted on MA. Surpisingly warm at 850 and 2M almost as if there was another LP cutting to the west.

I am not as advserse to snow maps as some...especially the snow depth maps. It is interesting to see possibilities. Those TT maps fooled me earlier in the season.

Regardless of the GFS runs, I am still interesated in Wed to Friday of next week. Two opportunities if timing can be a bit better as to shortwaves in the Northern and Southern streams. Need some level of phasing to give us a trough that allows a low to at least come north if not totally phase and get the TV Met's saying the word Nor'easter again. It has been a while since that word has been tossed around. FV3 is actually not all that far off on Wed.

And they all show events with no ice at all so the accumulations on these maps are precise.

12Z GFS Snowfall map. 12Z FV3 Snowfall Map

My tag does not say "Smart Poster" and I am not totally sure of each models bias toward properly gauging wind speed but here is the panel of the 12Z GFS showing the max wind speeds for Eastern PA. Does not really jump out at me as being much different than the other half dozen wind events this season. My specific location has high winds quite frequently and a local WUnderground anemometer has recorded over 65 MPH gusts 3 times since the start of the year so not sure this is much different. These winds are in knots but the conversion to MPH only adds 3-4 on to these sustained predictions.

Not a big FAN.

As fun as yesterday was it stings a bit to see us going into what appears to be a silent time for the next 7-10 days. After this weekend rainer there is no precip on the map within 2000 miles of the area (looking West). The accumulated precip between hour 80 (weekend rain) and hour 240, on the 12Z Euro, is basically nil through most of PA. Would allow the mud to dry but waste away about 1/3 of our remaining climo winter days of now to March 15th. That Wed 2/27 threat phasing is my hope we do not have this long of a break.

This post made my day.

Back then it took 5 min to download one frame of the GFS and trying to look at all 384 hours doubled my monthly Prodigy bill.

This is the 12Z FV3 from 240 Hours to 300 hours after a 3 day snow storm. We were talking about it in a few replies so did not think to add any more detail.

Someone posted something in the MA thread. That's your every day 48-60" bulleseye in the MD Panhandle.

It just hit 50 despite the snow pack. GFS fails again.

The FV3 purposely put that all 240 and back so we could not post snow maps!

So those that like to read models...when going to check out the 12Z American LR just go ahead and pretend the GFS is not there/already decomissioned and use the FV3 because it is our latest and greatest and has to be the best (and will make you feel better than the old hag GFS).