bubbler86

Well the Accuweather long range forecast, from 3 weeks ago, calling for winter to hold off until Late January is looking better and better by the day.

Joe B thinks every storm can surprise.

Good catch. It is snowing here as well and I never would have noticed if I did not see your post.

A little worried about the chances of a fast start to winter. Early December once looked promising but now mid to upper 40's. Looking at the Accuweather long range forecast, which I believe is just verbatim graphic output of the GFS, winter does not start until the end of January.

Ice on the sidewalks and side roads here right now. Not venturing out to see what the main roads are like...probably just wet.

Wear pampers if standing anywhere popular/where people get there early to stand. LOL

My local forecast shows similar numbers: Monday Night Light rain likely before 1am, then showers likely after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Local Turkey Bowl football games will be in jeopardy.

Some significant environmental differences in accumulation in Franklin county. We still have 4-5" of snowpack and the roads still have snow on them while I just drove back from Mt Alto where there is only snow in patches and most yards are green and open. HRRR actually progged that fairly well with what appeared to be a snow hole west of Waynesboro.

Hmmm....this post was not too bad for my first winter back :-). Not sure if anyone caught why I called it the Eskimo Joe storm but several days ago he was on here tooting about its potential and really gets some credit for being one of the first (Both Met and non Met) to take it so seriously.

The Patriot just came out with their "everyone was wrong" article. https://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/11/everyone-was-wrong-snow-forecast-vs-snow-reality.html

If I had not been able to shovel yesterday we would still be stuck as there is no way I am shoveling 1/8" of a mile of what is out there now. I feel bad you had to.

I think some of the blame for lack of road care today has to be put on the NWS zone forecasts. There was a high probability of CAD holding longer than the GFS suggested, and was modeled fairly nicely on many commonly used systems such as Euro, Nam, and short range wise, the HRRR and 3K. The 1-3" forecasts and no WSW for places like York and Adams county were almost bound to fail from the moment the enter button was pressed sending them out. If they really wanted to make sure the public was safe they should have shot high on this one to let everyone know of the potential (likely potential in my eyes) of a borderline crippling snow. Penndot had to allow some of these less than scary forecasts to seep in their subconscious when planning crews. Also the possibility of some places simply not having enough employees this early has to be considered. Here in Washington Twp they are advertising for people for the coming winter season so they do not have a full crew yet.

That would be a fantastical end this super sweet storm. If I had to count on my fingers how often back ends snows have disappointed me I would be a hindu goddess.

Moderate freezing rain down here. Crusting up everything. Did some more measurements and am over 8" but not going to quibble beyond saying 8-9". Still think someone in N Frankilin County will come in over a foot.