Newman

NAM is much snowier for northern parts of the Lehigh Valley and Poconos

I could see Berks, Lehigh, and Northampton counties starting as sleet, then as the column moistens and cools briefly thumping 1-2" of snow. Then as the mid-levels warm we'll switch to sleet and freezing rain before turning to rain. Carbon and Monroe counties will stay snow longer and those further south in Montgomery, Bucks, etc. will likely start as sleet and then go straight to rain. One thing to take note of is if the CAD can hold on longer and prevail. I don't think we're far enough out anymore for major changes. But for areas like the Lehigh Valley, an extra hour or two of sleet/freezing rain is possible than expected if it stays colder.

18z GFS with a solid thump for the LHV Thursday, some areas stay all snow or frozen.

It's super exciting that we should be entering a loaded pattern with our first storm threat centered right around Christmas. I'm rooting for a Dec 24-25 snowstorm.

Just some light rain and mist falling now. Had some heavier snow mix in throughout the morning to give a slushy coating to the car and grass. 33F

I actually just checked Parker Dam, cheap cabins so will consider it

Having serious thoughts of "chasing" this storm out there in central PA, lots of similarities to Dec 1992. Anybody know of any good State Parks I could rent a cabin at in that general area of Blair and Clearfield counties?

Euro is HUGE for much of central PA, west of the river

Latest CIPS analog guidance no surprise has Dec 1992 as the #1 analog It's interesting to note the slightly further west NAO blocking we have this time around compared to 1992 (sitting squarely over the Hudson Bay on the 12z GFS, compared to east of it). Will that make a difference?

6z GEFS... look at member 14. Right now the GEFS are catching back up to the other guidance, so not as many hits. But there are still quite a few solid hits

0z GEFS showing some pretty big hits

There's some pretty big solutions showing up on the GEFS, especially for the interior but even some for the coast

0z GFS with an absolute crusher next weekend. I really like Central PA's prospects for next weekend. Big cutter in the plains gonna get forced under the block and reform off the coast. Lots of cold air.

I would agree with you and John that we will likely need to wait until mid-December to see snow chances. However, what I don't like heading into the winter is the persistent convection in MJO 5-7(which aren't the ideal phases for EC snow chances). You can see it on the OLR maps and the Velocity Potential time series which I'll attach here as a link: (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml#:~:text=Velocity potential anomalies are proportional,to be enhanced (suppressed).) With the Pacific modeled in the long range, it by itself will not produce wintry weather. However, the high latitude blocking and potential for a ridge bridge in the long range is encouraging, and will be necessary, if we don't push the Aleutians ridge into the PNA region.

Record low max forecast at KRDG tomorrow. NWS forecast is 34, current record is 35 from 1951

I think some of the higher elevations NW will see their first snow this week. Probably non-accumulating in most areas

Pressure now down to 995mb on Sable Island. Winds are still fairly calm.

Sea Level Pressure plot from Sable Island from the past 24 hours, you can find these graphs on the MesoWest website: https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CWSA&unit=1&time=LOCAL&product=&year1=&month1=&day1=00&hour1=00&hours=24&graph=1&past=0&order=1 *And to note, on the left hand side of that website, you can change between metric and English units*

Sable Island is at the max like 30 feet tall. Cut those 50 foot waves south of the island to like 25 feet and it's still tragic.

For those that haven't been or seen pictures of Sable Island... This was a picture I took there this summer atop the West Light lighthouse. The island is only 1 mile wide at the largest point, 26 miles long. That white house below is where I stayed for the summer, it was only a 2 minute walk to the north side beach, and maybe a 5 minute walk to the south side beach. I bring this up to mention the true lack of anything there. I can't imagine what surge is going to look like

I was apart of a research group on Sable Island this summer, so it holds a very special place in my heart. If you don't know where Sable Island is, it's that small crescent Island south of Nova Scotia about 200 miles off the coast. I can't imagine what the scene will be on that island this coming Saturday. They've seen quite their fair share of storms, but this will be truly special. If I had to place a Webcam anywhere, it would be there. The surge could be unheard of. Wind is less of an issue due to minimal infrastructure and blowing of debris. But I am super interested to see how this plays out for Sable and mainland Nova Scotia

Here is the current Bermuda radar at 2137 UTC