Newman

I'd totally be down, however it would depend on the extensiveness of the details inside. A localized "KU" climatology book would be awesome, but if it's just surface details and doesn't get into the meat of each event I would pass.

Yes I am very much involved with the MU Weather Information Center forecasts and what not, but I did not have any say in what Kyle Elliott was doing with the winter forecast. His general reasoning, however, is 2nd year Nina's with the SST regime we're in are close in similarity to 2011-12 and 2017-18. The MJO will likely spend the most time as well in the unfavorable phases due to the SST pattern. The biggest wild card, as he mentioned in his bullet points, is the chance for high latitude blocking. The QBO is in a strong easterly (negative) phase right now which favors blocking. There's a lot to consider in a winter like the one coming up, I'm glad I don't have to release any official forecasts myself! I think a 22-27" snowfall winter is reasonable

12z Ukmet is a crusher for much of Philly east

Widespread 2-4", especially for eastern areas. It's gonna be a rainy Tuesday and early Wednesday

Euro for this Saturday

Through Saturday dews shouldn't get above 50F with highs staying in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Lows should be in the mid-upper 40s for the burbs, low 50s for the city. Finally some incredible weather!

Oh I'm aware, I watch just as much Philly sports as I'm sure you do. Although, I was admittedly a Ben apologist. Thought more of him than I should have.

Ben Simmons is a chump

There's some interesting features with that cell/line in Chester. Almost like a really small MCV trying to form. You can get a brief spin up with these QLCS type events, especially today with the high SRH, moderate Bulk Shear, and low LCLs

Yes indeed, personally I am in favor of this change. I need some cooler weather soon

30s and wet snow in September anyone?

Amazing pic! My sister in Shillington sent a similar pic to me too. I had an evening class so couldn't see the shelf cloud in person, but similar views down here in Lanco from what I heard.

Regarding #2, remember that our EF scale is dependent on damage assessment. Is there any chance infrastructure has improved enough to cause this "decrease" in strong tornadoes? Or is there something else going on? Just a thought that came to mind. I chased the Mullica Hill NJ tornado two weeks ago, saw the damage up close and in-person, and was almost certain the NWS would've classified it as an EF4 but alas they didn't (only EF3). Is there any literature or data you can send me that supports your 2nd statement?

Okay so I'm a student at Millersville University down in PA. We have a "chase crew" I'm apart of that, over the next year or so, will be chasing and collecting data from tornadic cells in the Northeast from PA all the way north into ME and using it for a research project. I need some insight from locals.... is southern NH and southern ME a bad spot to chase? I'd imagine it is. Also, it appears to be more of a straight line wind threat rather than tornados, would any meteorologists care to chime in? We talked to the met profs here and got mixed feelings

https://sundogpublishingstore.myshopify.com/products/python-programming-and-visualization-for-scientists-2nd-ed I've been using this book to self-learn Python. It's written by one of my profs here at Millersville Dr. Alex DeCaria. He knows his stuff, and the book is fantastic

Some 4-5"+ radar indicated amounts from overnight across northern Berks and into the Lehigh Valley

Quite a few damage reports from Berks county. Trees and power lines down across much of west central Berks

Mount Holly on tomorrow: Guidance consensus suggests a stripe of MLCAPE values around 1000+ J/kg ahead of the front driven by low-level WAA and cooling in the mid-levels as it pushes into eastern PA and New Jersey. This combined with very favorable forcing for convection is expected to result in the development of widespread thunderstorms in the 21-00Z timeframe. The mesoscale and hi-res guidance has been consistent in developing a potent LLJ ~30-40 kts in the 00-03Z timeframe across Delmarva, SE PA, and New Jersey immediately ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front and leading mid-level shortwave. Forecast effective SRH values are fairly high (200-250 m2/s2) and effective inflow layer shear on the order of 25-30 kts. The 06Z and 12Z NAM hint at a secondary low pressure maxima developing along the front, which would further back the surface winds in the warm sector and increase the SRH. Deep layer shear appears to be on the order of 35- 40 kts immediately ahead of the cold front. These shear and kinematic values will be supportive of organized convection and rotating updrafts. The mean flow being largely parallel to the cold front suggests a mainly linear convective mode, but cannot totally rule out a few more discrete cells, especially ahead of the main front.

Tornado risk tomorrow

Storms Wednesday evening??

The next chance for storms will be Wednesday with an approaching cold front. Will need to watch this period both for severe and flooding potential, as the GFS/CMC QPF would suggest localized 1-2 inch totals are possible (despite modest PWs, at least compared to what we have seen recently), and the progged CAPE-shear parameter space is favorable for some strong to severe storms along the front.

Other than RadarScope, what other radar apps or programs do y'all recommend, especially for something like base velocity maps, correlation coefficient, etc? I know the weather.cod.edu site offers those for free, but the radar gridding is too coarse and is not valuable