Newman

There are some big time western members on the 0z GEFS. Legit one tries to skirt North Carolina. Can't call anything a trend yet with regards to MSLP position really, but you can sure see the ridge over far eastern Canada (around Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, etc) trending stronger on the GEFS each subsequent run. Will be interested to see the spaghetti tracks for the ensembles Also to note, some of the more southwest ensemble members are there because of timing differences. There's a few members that get Lee essentially "stuck" in the northern Bahamas until the ridge moves out and it goes OTS. So a more W or SW member doesn't necessarily equate to a NE hit.

And the GEFS have quite a strong SW lean down in the Bahamas compared to the 18z run previously

The biggest takeaway from that GFS run for me wasn't the impact location, per say. But rather we didn't see that bend/recurve OTS once past Hatteras latitude. Instead, it trucks on due north into eastern New England, similar to the Euro which moved straight north. So as you alluded to, that ridge and trough duo as currently modeled squeezes this thing due north. If you really want a strong New England impact, you'd want this trough to capture Lee, even if it's slightly, to pull it *just* a bit on a NW heading. But you take what you can get. I think y'all all know what's at stake here, and what's the likely outcome. I don't even live on the east coast anymore, but this is still an intriguing situation to follow and I'll be watching along

Say what you will, that was obviously the best looking GFS run in quite a few cycles if you're looking for a hit. Verbatim eastern Maine gets a good impact, as the extratropical transition would expand the leaf and winds on the western side

Latest update Cat 5 160mph

NWS Cheyenne mentions snowflakes at the high peaks this weekend. Point and click showing snow in the Snowies around Medicine Bow Peak for Saturday night-Monday

Atlantic Canada is a hurricane magnet recently

https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1696729259610406963?s=20

Some big time towers just went up on the west side of the eye looking at IR. Tops colder than -80°

Reed Timmer and a few others are in Cedar Key still. I'd hope they get out while they can. 12-16 foot surge won't be survivable

The 0z GFS landfalls Idalia with a central pressure of between 955-960 in the Big Bend around where Hermine landfalled 7 years ago

Looks like KLAR broke daily records the past two days, made it to 89 yesterday

There's trees down coming in everywhere across the southern and central part of Berks county. The EMS page is blowing up with them, some on houses with people stuck

Tornado warning for Norristown, Lansdale, KOP

Man Philly is about to get rocked

Yeah reports of trees down and roofs off houses in lancaster county

Reports of trees down and roofs off houses in western Lancaster county around the river in Holtwood and Quarryville

Big time bow echo pushing towards Philly, warned for 70mph winds

Line is really bowing out in Lancaster county, 70mph winds

That warning heading towards Leesburg has a classic QLCS kink

Yeah Harrisburg might get completely skunked. That discrete cell entering southern York is the real deal and has been tracking for awhile

The line entering Franklin is starting to bow out, warned for 70mph winds currently

You can see the squall line beginning to take form

Tornado warning for state college