-
Posts
444 -
Joined
-
Last visited
About WxSynopsisDavid
![](https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/team_member.png)
- Birthday 11/12/1988
Profile Information
-
Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KBKT
-
Gender
Male
-
Location:
Blackstone, VA
-
Interests
Tropical Weather, Severe Weather, Storm Chasing
-
Not much to say other than to post the infrared loop. Still images can be deceiving, an animated loop is more precise. As we can see, when Beryls appearance looks ragged, Beryl explodes in the next frame. Beryl does not show any significant signs of weakening. That deep convection upshear in the north eyewall with a recent spike of lightning activity says otherwise.
-
The fact it achieved this intensity so rapidly in an environment that wasn’t exactly pristine is all the more impressive. Other canes have had environments more conductive and failed to take advantage of the opportunity. Beryl more than achieved its peak. Really have to credit the high pressure overhead Beryl that aided in ventilation at the perfect time, right when diurnal max was peak.
-
Honestly, with Beryl being so small it’s growing highly unlikely that an EWRC begins before striking the islands. With the dry air preventing expansion of the windfield, it will take land interaction with the islands to induce an EWRC. This is where my concern grows. If Beryl waits until land interaction with the islands to induce an EWRC, than it’s possible that completes before entering the Caribbean near Jamaica. Smaller storms are more resilient to shear. If Beryl maintains this small compact size than those intensity forecast showing weakening approaching the Yucatan could be wrong. It’s very possible that Beryl achieves a second peak on approach to the Yucatan. Really believe this is what Josh Morgerman is banking on. Reason why he did not play Island Roulette. Interesting enough, I heard that some in-house data at the NHC is starting to show this potential 2nd peak scenario.
-
I agree with that statement. 2 sections of that damage path warranted EF5. The subdivision near the water (can’t remember if he exact location) featured numerous well built homes wiped clean.