WxSynopsisDavid

Dr Knabb been explaining on TWC today that surge effects will actually peak well after landfall. Forecast is for surge to peak around high-tide as the winds shift back around from the west.

WFLA News Channel 8 is live streaming on Facebook. The on-air Mets disagree and said Milton is coming right into the mouth of the Bay. Just told people Tampa will be taking a direct hit.

It’s getting close, yes. Probably about 1-2hrs away from that happening.

Not quite, the symmetry is not there. Milton is lopsided and ragged. Not to mention the eye is still not quite organized and open yet.

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Yet again, Milton is rebounding very healthy from an ERC. Continues to remain resilient to shear and dry air. Absolutely not what you want to see heading into landfall. Milton was expected to have its bottom ripped out from this ERC and roll in as a weak Cat 3. Milton is simply holding its intensity and that strong inner core. Really poses a serious threat to over-performing in terms of landfall intensity. That’s if Milton continues to remain resilient, Milton will most certainly have one final intensification process as it nears land. Would be both environmental and frictional induced. Overall, I’m not liking this trend we are seeing and starting to grow concerned of the aspect of greater intensity on landfall. Hopefully, post ERC, Milton loses the resiliency.

This would make Milton the first ATL Basin hurricane to go Sub-910 three times.

907mb

Yeah, Milton’s core is still very small and compact. Finding Milton’s peak wind is no easy task. They can easily miss it.

Is that correct, NW eyewall? That’s an impressive reading in the NW quad if that’s correct. Since winds are much more intense in NE quad, that would make me believe winds are around 180-185.

This is a remarkable Post-ERC recovery. Milton should begin undergoing intense, rapid pressure falls once again within the next few hours.

Milton is beginning another Rapid Intensification process. Should shear continue to relax, this will be Milton’s last chance at making a run at peak intensity. Milton starting to move over a warm eddie. Should be over this warm eddie for the next several hours. Later today into the evening and overnight, Milton will be over the Gulf Loop Current.

That’s also the NW Eyewall where the weaker winds tend to be. Will be interesting to see what the NE Eyewall yields.

Dry air is not impacting the storm currently. The degrading appearance and egg shape Milton is taking on is a result of the N/NW shear beating down on the storm. Shear should relax later today in the afternoon.