jaxjagman

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About jaxjagman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBNA
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  • Location:
    Brentwood,Tn.

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  1. Fairly impressivel.Control did a seemingly nice job in the long range possibly sniffing this pattern out upcoming.To give it some credit, there is a ridge the Euro shows into East Asia building into the mid week and a trough a few days later so this possibly will not be nothing more than a transient warm spell.But could be a good one
  2. Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 30 2020 - 12Z Wed Jul 01 2020 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...2030 UTC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Discussion... Spaghetti plots from the GEFS and SREF point to the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 3 inches from parts of Iowa into western Kentucky into eastern Tennessee...predominantly from ARW cores. The on-going Slight Risk was pretty well aligned in this corridor, so only changes were made to expand the western boundary based on antecedent conditions from the past week or so as well as anticipated rainfall amounts from today to the beginning of the Day 2 period. Also made some minor adjustments to the southern periphery based on latest model runs. These are fairly modest moves considering the run to run and model to model run consistency...but the numerical guidance tended to be in broad agreement with respect to the magnitude of instability and the amount of precipitable water available and the presence of the dynamics to help force and focus the activity. Not many changes elsewhere. Bann
  3. I'm in Maryville right now,that was by far the best convective system i've seen in some time.
  4. Its been sunny and hazy here,waiting on the sun to set.You guys east in the Mountains should be able to snap some good shots,please share if you get some good ones
  5. Euro and Control today are hinting at a potential low which gets cut off somewhat or more slowly meanders around the Valley.But it's still to far off to trust, but there is a trough the next couple days which will slowly move through South Korea.Thus could be a potential odd summer time big rain maker upcoming with really nothing to kick it to fast.You can actually spot it pretty well using the CAG today ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z JUN26 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK FRI 12Z 26-JUN 21.4 572 140 FRI 18Z 26-JUN 0.04 25.9 573 140 SAT 00Z 27-JUN 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.05 24.1 574 140 SAT 06Z 27-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 20.1 573 140 SAT 12Z 27-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 20.9 570 140 SAT 18Z 27-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 27.1 572 141 SUN 00Z 28-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 24.8 573 141 SUN 06Z 28-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 21.9 573 141 SUN 12Z 28-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 22.4 572 140 SUN 18Z 28-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.06 29.6 574 142 MON 00Z 29-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.07 27.7 576 142 MON 06Z 29-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.07 23.3 576 141 MON 12Z 29-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 23.4 574 141 MON 18Z 29-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.08 31.4 577 142 TUE 00Z 30-JUN 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.11 27.1 577 142 TUE 06Z 30-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 23.8 576 142 TUE 12Z 30-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 24.2 575 141 TUE 18Z 30-JUN 0.12 0.11 0.00 0.23 28.9 575 142 WED 00Z 01-JUL 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.34 25.7 575 142 WED 06Z 01-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 23.1 574 141 WED 12Z 01-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 23.7 573 141 WED 18Z 01-JUL 0.17 0.16 0.00 0.51 26.5 574 141 THU 00Z 02-JUL 0.14 0.12 0.00 0.65 24.4 574 141 THU 06Z 02-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.66 21.8 574 141 THU 12Z 02-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.68 22.5 573 140 THU 18Z 02-JUL 0.08 0.07 0.00 0.75 27.9 575 141 FRI 00Z 03-JUL 0.21 0.18 0.00 0.96 24.4 576 141 FRI 06Z 03-JUL 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.96 21.3 575 141 FRI 12Z 03-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.96 22.1 575 140 FRI 18Z 03-JUL 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.98 29.2 577 142 SAT 00Z 04-JUL 0.06 0.03 0.00 1.04 26.0 578 142 SAT 06Z 04-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.04 22.0 577 141 SAT 12Z 04-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.05 23.2 575 141 SAT 18Z 04-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.05 30.4 577 142 SUN 00Z 05-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.06 27.2 576 142 SUN 06Z 05-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.07 23.9 574 141 SUN 12Z 05-JUL 0.07 0.00 0.00 1.14 21.0 572 140 SUN 18Z 05-JUL 0.51 0.03 0.00 1.65 22.3 572 140 MON 00Z 06-JUL 0.82 0.08 0.00 2.47 21.9 574 140 MON 06Z 06-JUL 1.38 0.22 0.00 3.85 21.4 575 140 MON 12Z 06-JUL 3.05 0.23 0.00 6.90 21.3 575 140
  6. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    Been some warming down into the subsurface the past couple weeks along the IDL,even East of it
  7. Nice early afternoon convective storm,with much needed rain.We got close to a inch to 1.5" so far today
  8. Probably wait and see if the timing is right.In East Asia the last day or two there has been a more Baiu-front where heights build into China and an ULL North of Japan and some sort of boundary in between which goes stationary for a time,these fronts can be big rain makers in East Asia,into the early summer
  9. Euro switched out on recent long range runs.This afternoon it shows a trough in the east with shortwaves spinning along.The low level shear 30-35kts would be a potential drought buster for us into next weekend,not sure i'd trust it right now tho
  10. Heh,let's hope they continue to be bad like you said.Even tho last year we broke the record for most 90 degree days in a year,i can't recall triple digits anytime,in which this look would certainly/possibly do this around Mid July
  11. Probably should have been expected but parts of the Valley west of I-65 went into a more abnormal drought,looks like an unsettled period coming up.We had a decent cell come through yesterday but we need more South Drought continues to rapidly develop and intensify across most of Texas and Oklahoma, with patchy dryness beginning to develop farther east in western Tennessee and adjacent Mississippi. Central parts of the region, soaked by heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal last week, remained free of moisture deficits. Only isolated parts of Tennessee saw any significant precipitation this week. Western Texas and eastern New Mexico received less than 0.5 inch the past couple of months, and most of this area recorded under an inch for the past 90 days. Farther east in central Oklahoma, higher normals allowed rainfall deficits of 2.5 to 4.5 inches accumulate over the past few weeks. As a result, moderate to severe drought expanded in many areas from central Oklahoma to the Texas/New Mexico border as far south as the Big Bend. Precipitation shortfalls are less acute and of shorter duration on the east side of the South Region, but conditions deteriorated enough to introduce D0 there.