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jaxjagman

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About jaxjagman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBNA
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  • Location:
    Brentwood,Tn.

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  1. You gotta think something is going to happen during this time frame,recurving typhoon and a crashing SOI.But right now it could be anything,could even be severe
  2. Possible "phoon" recurving off of the Japan coast in a few days which would fall in line basically with the timing possibly of those maps
  3. The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña WATCH”. During September 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index below -1℃ is expected to gradually increase to -0.24℃ during the forecast period. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 90% chance of La Niña conditions with weak intensity for November 2021 – January 2022, which gradually decreases. Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to be gradually increasing and then dominant during February – April 2022. Highly probable above normal temperatures are predicted for much of the globe, especially for Eurasia, southern USA, and Argentina for November 2021 – April 2022. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for eastern Russia, some regions of Canada, and the Arctic for November 2021 – April 2022.
  4. Turned my heater on for a bit to get the chill out this morning
  5. We'll see, this is looking more like a more modoki, west based NINA than anything,its even cooling into the subsurface closer to the IDL.After the next KW moving through this week the MJO signal looks mute right now until it strenghtens into the IO towards the end of the month.Least that is what i see,but this still looks stronger than 2011-2012..IMHO.Think if i were a betting man from TX/LA/AR into the OV could see all kind of extremes,cutter heaven.But that is JMHO.
  6. Pretty much all agree a moderate NINA peaking around the new year
  7. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 512 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0559 PM TORNADO 4 N CROSSVILLE 36.01N 85.03W 10/06/2021 CUMBERLAND TN EMERGENCY MNGR AN EF1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CROSSVILLE NEAR THE OBED RIVER AND MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS RYE WOODY RD...LAWSON RD AND TABOR LOOP BEFORE LIFTING. AT LEAST SIX HOMES AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED ON RYE WOODY RD AND LAWSON RD WITH THREE HOMES AND ANOTHER UNDER CONSTRUCTION SUFFERING SIGNIFICANT ROOF AND EXTERIOR DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES WERE ALSO SNAPPED AND UPROOTED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN. PATH LENGTH 1 MILE AND PATH WIDTH 50 YARDS. MAX WINDS 90 MPH.
  8. That looks brutal for Jan especially for severe.Mid level ridge in the SE and a Upper level ridge extending westward somewhere along the the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas.The ENSO already is looking more like the NINA in 2011-2012,with the exception this is colder right now Nothing will probably break the severe outbreak of Jan21-23 of 1999,but this was during a moderate NINA and the most active severe January's on record with 2012 coming in 2nd.Summer was just as brutal in 2012,Nashville hit its all time record high 109F https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_January_21–23,_1999
  9. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/13b68e35b8fd48e0b0188f1645992b98
  10. Its colder right now than the 2011-2012 NINA.Some similar looks tho down into the subsurface but i'm sure technology is much better than it was 10 years ago.But either way it ended up being a moderate NINA into winter
  11. Nina looks pretty strong to me,looks similar back into late Oct when it peaked,i'd be surprised if this doesn't end up at a moderate Nina upcoming as cold as the subsurface is.The recent CCKW is helping this out with another being shown towards the end of the month,but it looks weaker than it did a few days ago
  12. Subsurface is pretty cool.With a passing KW recently and another one being shown towards the end of the month, we should be back into NINA pretty soon.To soon to look at severe fall but seemingly it could be a active one,we'll see
  13. Areas around Tullahoma and Manchester has gotten around 10",about 6 " here so far,that is per RS estimation Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0995 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1146 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Areas affected...western/Middle Tennessee, northern Alabama, northern Mississippi Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 201545Z - 202200Z Summary...Flash flooding is likely today as slow-moving convection develops and moves over moist soils from prior rainfall. Discussion...A cluster of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms was observed over Middle Tennessee this morning. Meanwhile, additional showers and isolated thunderstorms were deepening to the south/southwest acrosss portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and western Tennessee. The environment supporting the ongoing convection was characterized by weak low-level confluence (southerly 850mb flow across Middle Tennessee and south-southwesterly 850mb flow across Mississippi), abundant moisture (near 2 inch PW values), and increasing surface-based instability (500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE - highest in Mississippi). Weak flow aloft was contributing to slow movement of ongoing convection, which was already resulting in a few areas of 1"/hr rainfall rates near the Nashville area. Three-hour rainfall totals around 2-3 inches have also been observed southwest of Nashville Metro. Although the ongoing convective cluster near Nashville may pose a few localized flash flood issues this morning, a higher flash-flood risk is possible later this afternoon as convective coverage increases in tandem with the peak diurnal cycle. Models and high-resolution guidance suggest that the greatest coverage of storms this afternoon will exist from northern Alabama into Middle Tennessee. These areas also have very low FFG values (generally less than 1.5"/hr thresholds, with spots as low as 0.5"/hr). These thresholds should easily be exceeded with convection this evening, especially given the slow storm motions and efficient rainfall production expected. Within the discussion area, the greatest likelihood of flash flooding will exist where FFGs are lowest (Middle Tennessee, Alabama, and far northwest Georgia). Farther west, flash flooding is still possible (Mississippi, western Tennessee) given the favorable atmospheric conditions, although FFGs are higher as this region hasn't experienced the heavier antecedent rainfall as areas farther east. Cook ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX... PAH... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...
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