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jaxjagman

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    Brentwood,Tn.

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  1. Good storms down south
  2. Two now
  3. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Western Kentucky Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop within an increase moist and unstable air mass across the region. Mostly linear bands of severe thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward across northwest Tennessee into west-central Kentucky, while more isolated storms are expected across northern Mississippi into west-central Tennessee. Large hail and damaging winds can be expected, and at least some tornado risk could gradually increase through the afternoon.
  4. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TN RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF MS/AL TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Lower Ohio/Mississippi River Valleys and Tennessee Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern MO late this morning will continue generally eastward and reach the middle OH River Valley by late tonight. A preceding belt of 40-50 kt west-southwesterly mid level winds will continue to overspread an increasingly moist, albeit modestly so, warm sector. Ahead of an eastward-moving cold front currently across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will continue to become increasingly common across eastern AR, northern MS into western TN, northward into western KY. While warm-sector cloud cover has remained semi-prevalent thus far, some cloud breaks are noted in visible satellite imagery an additional thinning seems likely in concert especially with the eastward-spread mid/high-level dry slot as per water vapor satellite imagery. Linearly organized convection across far northeast AR/far southeast MO late this morning should continue to spread east-northeastward and increase in coverage/intensify into northwest TN and western/central KY as the downstream air mass continues to moisten and destabilize. This activity will pose a damaging wind and severe hail risk, although a tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther south, other initially more discrete storms should develop within the warm sector this afternoon across additional portions of TN, far eastern AR, northern MS and eventually northwest AL later this afternoon/evening. Here, supercell-favorable wind profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates as noted per 12Z observed soundings will support large hail potential. A few tornadoes also appear possible, particularly around mid/late afternoon into early evening across western/middle portions of TN and northern MS and northwest AL. In this corridor, a modest westerly component of the mid-level winds will coincide with modestly strong low-level shear/SRH. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 03/27/2017
  5. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-SOUTH TO CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL MS/AL... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough along the KS/MO border will move east to the Cumberland Plateau by early Tuesday. Attendant surface cyclone will track from the Ozark Plateau into the Middle OH Valley, weakening late in the period. A cold front will shift east across the Mid-South this afternoon with trailing portion stalling tonight over the Lower MS Valley. ...Lower MS/OH and TN Valleys... Two storm clusters are ongoing across southern IL/western KY and separately over northwest AR. The 27/00Z WRF-NSSL and HRW-ARW appear to have the best reflection of these clusters compared to other CAMs. The eastern cluster should slow destabilization north of the OH River today where surface dew points are predominately in the 40s as of 12Z. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will continue to advect northeast ahead of the northwest AR cluster into the Mid-South within a broad 30-40 kt LLJ. This should result in a plume of lower 60s surface dew points nosing towards the MS/OH River confluence, with middle 60s maintained across the Lower MS Valley. The increasing moisture coupled with diurnal destabilization will likely result in MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg developing by mid afternoon. Low-level WAA ahead of the AR cluster in conjunction with convergence along the impinging cold front should serve as a focus for increasing afternoon storm development. With effective shear magnitudes of 35-45 kt, several supercells are anticipated, especially with southern extent in the open warm sector. Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and isolated damaging winds are most probable with this activity centered on the Mid-South. Some of the hail may be significantly severe owing to steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by 12Z Jackson, Shreveport, and Little Rock RAOBs. A few of these supercells will likely organize into one or more east-moving line segments axis, with damaging winds becoming the predominant hazard towards middle TN/central KY/northwest AL. Farther south into central portions of MS/AL, weak 500-mb height falls during the day coupled with heating and weakening convective inhibition should result in at least isolated storms developing within confluence bands in the absence of any well-defined boundary. A risk for hail and wind damage should accompany the stronger storms. ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/27/2017
  6. Best updrafts are right now west of Nashville,though there is some updrafts further east of the enhamcedl risk area,severe threat looks like now in the Western Valley west of Nashville,though there could be some severe storms further east in the slight risk area in the Md Valley ...portions of the OH-TN-MS Valleys... Low-level moisture will return north into the Mid South and OH Valley within a WAA regime associated with a 35-kt LLJ during the morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the MS river at daybreak and move downstream into TN and the lower OH Valley. There is some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization farther north near the OH River where clouds and early-day convection may limit destabilization. Nonetheless, models show a plume of upper 50s dewpoints near the OH River to the low-mid 60s in the MS Delta. The increasing moisture coupled with diurnal destabilization south and west of early activity will probably result in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid afternoon with weak buoyancy forecast farther north near the OH River. Forcing for ascent provided by the mid-level wave in conjunction with convergence along the surface boundary over eastern AR northward to the OH-MS River confluence will likely serve as a focus for storm development during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strongest from TN southward into northern MS/AL with effective shear magnitudes 35-50 kt. Cellular clusters of supercells and organized multicells are forecast with hail (perhaps very large with the most intense storm or two) and damaging winds the main threats.
  7. Nice,850mb winds least if not severe brings some good rain potential into the Mid Valley(Monday after next so its gonna be wrong..lol).Don't want to get in any stinkin drought into summer,this would go west to east not as strong though but at least over 50 kts to the east Valley by the looks,who knows if it will be right,but it's a enjoyable sight to me compared to the last couple years,bring the rain on
  8. Euro shows another system today coming off China today maybe into the Yellow Sea by day 10.Pattern continues it seems just like the energizer bunny,it keeps on and on and on with a ridge behind it and another trough to follow.This system though don't looked as suppressed as the others with more serperation?Not sure,it'd be a severe threat around the 10-11th of the month i believe.
  9. Another strong burst by the IDL is coming up,most of the Enso regions have been falling recently SOI is at 10+ plus today.We are still in a more Nina pattern now.AAM is going into more pattern for storms into the S/Plains around 10 days out,though this changes daily.Much as i thought this might break down in Asia,this afternoons run don't really show this.Could be a wild April.Most of the seasonal models look to fail bad with the ENSO into March.
  10. If we can get some better shear Monday with the shortwave it might not that half bad on the Euro,maybe some hail.Thurs-Fri system looks more wind and t-storms.It's not done yet another system on the 2nd coming into the MO./Valley,this one so far looks pretty decent with instabilities.Nice LLJ 60-70KTS with decent shear,though this of course is far out but this one bears watching ATM,IMO
  11. Nice line along west of the river,nothing severe tho
  12. Least it's not a boring part into spring in the Valley like we've witnessed the last few springs,plus, it's wet !!.Looks like the pattern will last maybe into the 2nd week of April.Long range by D10 the models show a ridge into Mongolia and China,so the freight train stops for a period . Good luck to your Jayhawks Jeff.Think ya'll will take down Oregon.
  13. Been awhile since we'eve seen a wide spread hail event in the Valley http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
  14. ...Ozarks to southern Appalachians region... At least three recognizable convective episodes offering severe-thunderstorm potential may evolve over this corridor, with some fill-in linkage or spatial overlap possible between them: 1. Ozarks to Tennessee Valley, morning through afternoon: Widely scattered, ongoing, elevated thunderstorms across this area will post a threat for isolated severe hail as they move eastward through the western/central Ozarks region this morning. See SPC Mesoscale Discussion 300 for near-term meteorological details. Some combination of this early convection and additional development over the region by midday should move atop a progressively more unstable boundary layer with time, near the Mississippi Valley, and become surface-based. This is expected to occur as diurnal heating and near-surface thetae advection continue along and south of the surface front. The front itself, and associated instability gradient, may offer a preferential propagational corridor for any resulting upscale-organizing storm complex to travel into the Tennessee Valley region. An enhanced corridor of wind-damage potential now appears more probable as the activity gets into favorable moisture/buoyancy in middle TN, where well-mixed subcloud layers and steep low/middle-level lapse rates exist south of the front. Thermodynamic profiles will support 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE atop a strongly mixed boundary layer. 2. Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians this afternoon: By mid/late afternoon, preconvective parts of this area will reside in a regionally optimized zone of weak CINH and relatively maximized lift, where frontal and orographic ascent contributions juxtapose with diurnal heating of higher terrain. This also should be along the northeastern rim of a field of favorable prefrontal low-level moisture -- even after boundary-layer mixing processes -- contributing to the development of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, also atop a well-mixed boundary layer. Although low-level winds will be light, the unidirectional character of the forecast vertical wind profile supports quick evolution to a clustered, forward-propagational convective character that, in concert with its passage across some of that mixed layer, supports damaging gusts. Similarly to the first area, some of this regime may experience a relative concentration of convective-wind potential as well, but also may be overtaken by the western complex. 3. Western Ozarks region later today: Isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon into early evening farther west near the front, across parts of northeastern OK or northwestern AR, as the aforementioned weak southern-stream perturbation aloft crosses over the zone of frontal lift. Coverage will be limited by capping related to the eastern part of the persistent EML. However, a combination of frontal lift and weakened CINH from diurnal/diabatic heating may suffice for isolated convection to survive long enough for a brief risk of hail or damaging wind.