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jaxjagman

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About jaxjagman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBNA
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  • Location:
    Brentwood,Tn.

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  1. jaxjagman

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Still looks to be a more substantial down welling KW towards the end of the month into Sept.This is where the NMME and it's most counterparts start to kick in Nino or more Modoki leading into fall,so we'll see
  2. jaxjagman

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    The Solar cycle definite went south in July compared to June.So it'll be interesting to follow this into,later on.Enso there is a DWKW into region 4,but it dont look to make it past much further into 3.4,you can see the waters warming into region 4 recently
  3. jaxjagman

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Still looks to be a more trough in the east upcoming.Definite pattern change has been going on in East Asia.The jet into that region has been for the longest going through Mongolia and Russia,now its slipping southward.GEFS shows the trough axis more into the Yellow Sea into Korea and has been consistent with this the last few runs extending even into the longer range.SOI today shows no change -30,Nino
  4. jaxjagman

    ENSO 2018

    Potential for a decent KW towards the end of the month into Sept,but this certainly could change at this point but the MJO looks like it could get stronger into the Maritime .There looks to be a more dying one ongoing right now but it's still is getting into 3.4 the next couple days.
  5. jaxjagman

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    SOI has taken some big ups and downs recently,probably the most Ninoish it's been in awhile today.Think we could see in the long range a decent trough going through East Asia like the GEFS is showing today.Then towards the end of the month a trough in the east Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Aug 2018 1010.20 1013.70 -31.08 0.24 -1.50 9 Aug 2018 1012.24 1013.35 -16.57 1.61 -1.21 8 Aug 2018 1013.91 1012.40 -0.67 1.68 -1.14 7 Aug 2018 1012.14 1012.30 -10.80 1.34 -1.11 6 Aug 2018 1010.69 1013.10 -24.46 1.67 -0.81 5 Aug 2018 1012.05 1012.60 -13.17 2.46 -0.44 4 Aug 2018 1013.34 1012.60 -5.34 2.34 -0.46
  6. jaxjagman

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    The NMME didn't change much from the last update,still looks more Modoki in fall then less Modoki into winter
  7. jaxjagman

    ENSO 2018

    Not very much change from last month
  8. jaxjagman

    Spring and Summer Banter 2018

    Yeah they both are screwed up.One rule i dont like in college is the pass interference,that should be a spot foul. NFL can't even figure out what a catch is.You can throw to the sideline and all you have to do is have two feet down and control.You throw horizontal you have to have two feet down,control plus make a football player move.The heck with the player football move.When you have two feet down and control that should be a catch,if someone comes and waste you and you fumble,too bad, so sad.
  9. jaxjagman

    Spring and Summer Banter 2018

    I really wish the NCAA and NFL would both have the same rules.Keep it simple.
  10. jaxjagman

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Usually an early SSWE means a end to winter sooner than later but not all the time.In Feb we warmed up near 80 into the 3rd week and never got below 40 again past mid month Edit:this is 1984-85
  11. jaxjagman

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Abstract [1] Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are a major source of variability during Northern Hemisphere winter. The frequency of occurrence of SSWs is influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), the 11 year solar cycle, and volcanic eruptions. This study investigates the role of ENSO and the QBO on the frequency of SSWs using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3.5 (WACCM3.5). In addition to a control simulation, WACCM3.5 simulations with different combinations of natural variability factors such as the QBO and variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed to investigate the role of QBO and ENSO. Removing only one forcing, variable SSTs or QBO, yields a SSW frequency similar to that in the control experiment; however, removing both forcings results in a significantly decreased SSW frequency. These results imply nonlinear interactions between ENSO and QBO signals in the polar stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter. This study also suggests that ENSO and QBO force SSWs differently. The QBO forces SSW events that are very intense and whose impact on the stratospheric temperature can be seen between December and June, whereas ENSO forces less intense SSWs whose response is primarily confined to the months of January, February, and March. The effects of SSWs on the stratospheric background climate is also addressed here. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JD015757
  12. jaxjagman

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    84-85 you posted on the other page was a developing Nina but in 1984 we had an early SSWE in Dec.Then into Jan we really felt the artic plunge with all time record lows for any date, for many places in the Valley
  13. jaxjagman

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    First off,i was just pointing out what the QBO was showing NOW.I never in insinuated because it was so negative now that it would be a a cold winter,just wanted to clear that up.You can go up to the July,28 post i made above back then and putting some comparison to the 2009-10 winter.But the ENSO surely doesn't seem to acting like 2009,not right now anyways.
  14. jaxjagman

    Fall and Winter Speculations 2018/19

    Good point about 94-95,the qbo was rather strongly negative in July with Nino starting to develop into ASO,seems it would fit the pattern tho than 01-02 when the ENSO was neutral,but who knows either might be right,3.4 has yet to get shown into Nino land
  15. jaxjagman

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Models show Shanshan basically right now going into around Tokyo around the 9th,then getting kicked out of Japan by a trough.This should set the stage for a cold front into the Valley which still looks to be around the 17th give or take a day maybe.After this East Asia looks like a chance to get broken down from the heat wave they've been going through.
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