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About jaxjagman

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  1. Ever since when you posted this the standing wave popped up west of the IDL along with the strong EWB.The ENSO isn't acting like a typical ENSO.Think if the SPV can stay weak along with a more Modoki look like APEC shows it might not be that bad of a winter and not be a debbie downer,see the next update or two.Subsurface for right now is down to -5C east of the IDL again.Still a pretty healthy NINA with all the fake jabs it's put out to switch out
  2. Parts of the NW Tn is in a extreme drought and around the Ozarks,rest of us is in a moderate.severe west of I-65 and in the south,just as bad around Chatty,Alabama/Tn line .We got some rain yesterday and early this morn but would have liked more.Boundary should lift northward around Sunday so maybe some training cells,anything is better than nothing.Brutal summer here and especially west of us
  3. Been spoiled the last couple years,we haven't seen a heat wave like this in quite awhile.Yard was beautiful a couple weeks ago, not no mo.After the CF passes this week end,looks the same next week.Weird to say enjoy the lower 90's for a couple days,go outside when you can..lol
  4. Pretty strong MJO signal into the early parts of June into the WH/Africa along with a CCKW,should be a good shot to see some TG flaring up into the GOM,Caribbean possibly ,during this time
  5. I'm gonna be disappointed if i can't see this tonight.Band of high clouds is moving in but should clear out ,but thunderstorms seems possible into the evening here.Maybe you guys in the east might have a better chance to see it. https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/nashville?iso=20220516
  6. About split in half into fall.Equatorial has been warming lately. Tidbits seems to be doing better with the east.Couple weeks ago it was way to warm in 1+2 compared to CPC
  7. Pretty boring severe season for us.Looks like it could get unsettled starting this weekend but other than that right now looks blah.CFS does have a Kelvin Wave moving through next week with troughs coming through East Asia along with the MJO could actually strenghten into the IO.Could see a bigger deal around next weekend
  8. Make sure you are signed into twiiter then right click and hit the copy video URL
  9. Best thunderstorm in awhile here in Brentwood right now.Even dropping some pea sized hail
  10. Mis South looks pretty juicy Wed afternoon.TT'S 57-58.Already a 30% hatch for tornadoes Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a large portion of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southeast on Wednesday. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Strong tornadoes may occur. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low will continue to eject eastward from the Plains across much of the MS Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday. A surface low is likewise expected to advance generally eastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward Wednesday across much of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast as well. ...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast... A substantial severe threat is evident for a large part of these regions ahead of the cold front. Pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the negatively tilted upper trough will likely overspread the warm sector through the day. 60s surface dewpoints will be present ahead of the front, with greater low-level moisture likely in place from the lower OH Valley/Mid-South into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Diurnal heating of this airmass and the continued presence of steepened lapse rates aloft should allow for moderate to strong instability to develop by Wednesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear generally in excess of 45-50 kt will support organized severe thunderstorms, and low-level shear is also forecast to be quite strong. Pre-frontal convection appears possible across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley vicinity through the day. If this occurs, then supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, would be likely. Linear convection is also expected to develop along much of the length of the front, and this activity will pose a threat for both damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes as it spreads eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening. Have opted to include a broad Enhanced Risk to account for numerous to potentially widespread damaging winds, and several tornadoes. The main uncertainty precluding greater severe probabilities at this time is the possible effect of early-day convection across the lower MS Valley/Mid-South on prospects for substantial destabilization later in the afternoon. Given the strong flow and sufficient instability forecast, at least an isolated severe threat should continue with eastward extent across the OH Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast Wednesday night. ..Gleason.. 04/11/2022
  11. Either they were caught off guard or they are just plain stupid
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