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About jaxjagman

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  1. Just zr here,,mostly drizzle right now should pick up in about a half hour
  2. I'm not really sure,the MJO signal looks to really weaken as we get around MId Feb,both the Euro and CFS are showing this,GEFS right now keeps a stronger signal into the WP out of the COD. Seems like at least we;ve seen this same pattern out west since Nov,wash,rinse and repeat.The MJO signal gets strong then it goes into suppression after, then strong then suppressed again and so on.So seemingly if the patten recycles like it has we'll start seeing a stronger signal into Africa and the IO into March,but thats JMO and certainly might be wrong
  3. Dont think we even got below freezing last night and we still are not right now
  4. National Weather Service Memphis TN 901 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 02z surface analysis places an arctic cold front from New England back through portions of the Cumberland Plateau, Northern Alabama, and into Southern Mississippi. The freezing line across the Mid-South extends from near Paris, TN back to Memphis, and generally along the I-40 corridor into Little Rock, AR. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show the leading edge of the wintry precipitation already just east of the Mississippi River. KNQA WSR-88D dual polarization products indicate precipitation is falling mainly as freezing rain with the inclusion of some embedded sleet over Northeast Arkansas. This verifies with METAR observation and winter weather reports we`ve received thus far. Unfortunately, the earliest 00Z models (NAM/HRRR) are indicating slightly cooler temperatures which may end up impacting the potential melting of any ice during the day on Tuesday. A combination of a 30 kt 850 low level jet over the Arklatex and low to mid level warm air advection and a mid-level shortwave trough will assist in producing precipitation across the Mid-South throughout the night with the first wave tapering off Tuesday morning. 00Z KLZK upper air sounding is indicating a well pronounced warm nose approaching 9C resulting in the complete melting of precipitation as it reaches the below freezing temperatures near the surface thus resulting in freezing rain. Some sleet will still be possible further north towards the Missouri/Kentucky border where temperatures are slightly cooler aloft. Ice accumulation amounts across the warning area may end up averaging between one quarter to one half inch across the warning area with this first round if latest model guidance verifies across the area. An evening update will be available shortly to adjust precipitation chances upward and lower temperatures into Tuesday.
  5. Pattern looks more severe than cold as we get into deep Feb,just my two cents,if this was Cane season we'd probably be looking at tropical genesis some where
  6. Long range looks pretty crappy,right now.Models seem to want to build the Upper level ridge into South Korea/Japan into the 2nd week of Feb,this could very well build the Mid Level ridge(SER) the middle of Feb, maybe it will change but as we head into mid Feb that's not a cold look.
  7. Pretty active start of 2023 in Jan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornadoes_in_January_2023
  8. Trough going through East Asia again yesterday and today,same ole same ole.Teleconnection nothing but a -NAO/PNA,,cold chasing rain look,ready for severe if we even have one
  9. Pretty much we've had a minor SSW but the next couple days the winds will pick up again,we never saw a complete reversal just a displaced Vortex ,still be interesting to see what happens later
  10. Last couple days the winds spiked up causing the temps to fall some.What the models today are showing these winds will nowl die off,we should see a temp rise the next day or two
  11. See what happens in the long range,Euro today wants to build a Big Rex block into the Ak,thats not good but there is a trough going through East Asia in a few days,seems possibe at least for now we cool down,warm up then a trough in the East into Feb sometimes in the first week of Feb
  12. Right but i wonder if this site is having the same issues,it dont really show any spike in temps until maybe today or tomorrow?Seems like the maps of what JMA shows we've already seen the winds decelerate last few days,not trying to nit-pick anything
  13. Tomer Burg on twitter says the GFS/GEFS has had data issues into the Polar Vortex
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