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About jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman

    Fall Observations 2018

    Might hit our first freeze tonight,we'll have to see what heat island comes with it
  2. jaxjagman

    Fall Speculation 2018

    Wouldn't trust no model quite yet.But the GFS seems to be catching on somewhat with the typhoon with what the Euro has been consistent with other than timing,have to wait a few more days.But this is what the control shows this afternoon.But by Wed. you can see a ridge building up into Korea,then a trough,typhoon to follow on the Euro.The control shows a ridge in the Tn Valley.But like i said before we'll have to watch the teleconnections.With the right teleconnections, S/Korea with the dots connects to the Tn Valley,throughs and ridges.Control at the bottom is 360 hrs out or Nov 5th
  3. jaxjagman

    Fall Speculation 2018

    The Euro shows a re-curving typhoon off Japan.Negative AO-PNA-NAO ,trough coming off East Asia,we should see a nice system into the first week Of Nov potential if it holds of course
  4. jaxjagman

    Winter Speculation 2018/19

    That was a great winter for you
  5. jaxjagman

    Winter Speculation 2018/19

    But once again we've had some great snowstorms with this similar setup with lows to the east of the Valley with LP forming into the lower Ms valley Nino years,albeit this was over 50 years ago..lol.Just once again pointing out similarities in Nino years with LP's to the east and storms west in the Valley. II. The Meteorology The surface weather map at 0700 UTC on December 31, 1963 (Fig. 1) showed a developing low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico, with a trough extending northward from the low into the Appalachian Mountains. A broad area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. was the dominant feature over most of the eastern U.S., and this helped the flow across the Tennessee Valley turn northeasterly. Meanwhile, the surface map twelve hours later (Fig. 2) showed the aforementioned surface low having shifted to near Florida's west coast, with a strong surface high still anchored over the northeast. Moisture continued to spread into the southeast U.S. from the frontal system. The atmospheric sounding taken at Nashville, Tennessee (KBNA), 0000 UTC on 1 January 1964 (Fig. 3), already showed that the atmosphere was entirely below freezing, with the atmosphere nearly saturated throughout the 800-500 mb layer, and drier air in the lower levels. Precipitable water at this time was 0.48 inches, with the top of the saturation layer corresponding to -20oC (The latter is significant because moisture introduced into air colder than -10oC tends to be all ice, as opposed to supercooled water droplets in air that is between 0oC and -10oC.). At the same time, the 500 mb analysis (Fig. 4) showed a deep, closed low having formed along the Mississippi coast. A second, weaker closed low could be seen over Arkansas. The -20oC isotherm plunged from the southern edge of Hudson Bay southward into the Gulf of Mexico, indicating the remarkable cold air advection associated with this system. By 0600 UTC on 1 January (Fig. 5), the surface low had turned northeastward to the Carolina coast. Obviously, the Tennessee Valley remained entirely on the cold side of this system, with moisture having spread westward to the Tennessee River and covering much of the southeast U.S. By 1200 UTC on 1 January at BNA, the entire atmosphere below 600 mb was saturated, with the top of the saturation layer still at -13oC (Fig. 6). Despite the saturation that had occurred in the boundary layer, precipitable water values had decreased slightly to 0.42 inches, due mainly to dry advection in the mid-levels. Thus, this time, most of the snowfall across the Tennessee Valley had already occurred, although accumulating snow was still falling at many locations (Huntsville had officially measured 11 inches of snow by 1200 UTC, and would receive an additional 6.1 inches, setting an all-time record of 17.1 inches.). https://www.weather.gov/ohx/newyearsday1964snowstorm ONI 1963 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1964 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8
  6. jaxjagman

    Winter Speculation 2018/19

    We've also had some historic Ice storms from ElNino from this setup especially in 1994.The fact the Valley hasn't had an ice storm,a significant one should be troublesome.Is this the year,once again we just don't know.Per the Weather Channel this was the 2nd worst Ice storm since 1950.I'm once again saying this is not any forecast,just showing similarities. 2.) Feb. 9-13, 1994, Southern Ice Storm The second worst ice storm in history hit the South Feb. 9-13, 1994. Extensive damage totaling $3 billion was reported in portions Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia. 1994 ice storm facts: Of all the states affected, Mississippi Tennessee and Alabama saw the worst impacts. More than 2 million lost power. A half million were still without power three days after the storm. Some residents in Mississippi were without power a month after the storm. More than 80,000 utility poles were pulled down by the weight of the ice. Downed trees and limbs caused widespread damage to homes, businesses and vehicles. Many roads were blocked as well, making travel nearly impossible in some areas. In Mississippi, 3.7 million acres of commercial forests were damaged severely. At least nine deaths related to direct or indirect impacts from the storm. ONI 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 Synoptic pic below
  7. jaxjagman

    Useful Weather Links - Tennessee Valley Style

    Not sure who has CrankyWX site bookmarked, but i'd for sure do this one.You most certainly could delete a few you already have. http://www.stormhamster.com/resource.htm
  8. jaxjagman

    Useful Weather Links - Tennessee Valley Style

    It's leveled off recently.The dark shade is positive the white shade is negative.It could still stay weak/positive-negative into winter then drop off into winter http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore.dat Edit:"Drop off", i mean going more positive, just wanted to clarify that to avoid confusion
  9. jaxjagman

    Winter Speculation 2018/19

    Maybe wishcasting,but if you look at this setup with colder air in place later on, weeks ahead, this is a perfect setup for a winter storm in the Valley.If you go back and look at the synoptics of past big storms in the Valley, you'll see quite a few storms that goes east which bring colder air wrapped around and LP develops somewhere around the Southern Plains/lower Ms Valley.No clue if it will happen but the ingredients would surely be possibly there later on.
  10. jaxjagman

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Have to wake this thread up https://www.apnews.com/9ddb3deeec9a49d6a1349b78f1ca0f03 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2.epdf?author_access_token=PQZthaEqlkut62uLi4HlpNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Ofpugx93Jq3uh7IKWsjvSCCm9cT6oavbBDxy4CNfmgPbnVGCtRW0GfAXKcI3DSQ1vbeVbyw-jzqriwQAlEDMNsLcaDsYkvTU-SaxpOcafW-Q%3D%3D
  11. jaxjagman

    Winter Speculation 2018/19

    Would like to see a white Christmas,the Euro seasonals with the heights looks good in Dec,could also be a severe look just as well also.You guys in the East could have a great winter,i'm hoping here in our parts.
  12. jaxjagman

    ENSO 2018 ....

    IMME Update
  13. jaxjagman

    Winter Speculation 2018/19

    Wish i had some of his maps ,just click the map and it will take you there
  14. jaxjagman

    Fall Banter 2018

    Here's another It won't let me paste the link the image pops up.If you right click on the image you'll have options to pull up the link tho,if you want to book mark it.
  15. jaxjagman

    Fall Banter 2018

    I could tell there were a few Vols fans at the game,pretty loud