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About jaxjagman

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  1. Long range heading into the end of Oct into Nov seems dependent on if we have a typhoon recurving off of Japan or not.GFS and Euro are having a hard time where it's gonna go.The Euro yesterday had it going into Japan,now today it's back off shore.GFS today now shows it going into China.Something to keep a eye on CPC has been down the last couple days and nothing is updating.MJO index has been stuck on Oct 10,plus no enso updates.But either way it doesn't look as progressive but still has some strong signals with a KW working east.Posted a graph. Jamstec update looks warm in the Valley,DJF.weak Nina.More so better chance of winter,in the W/NW Valley.Plus ice and severe,the SST's in the GOM look warm.Like every other seasonal ,Nina should peak into winter and be short lived.But i'm still skeptical using Jamstec.They base the anamolies from 83"-06" for it's forecast.Wish they'd show by month and not tri-months.The NMME shows a potential active January along with some other seasonal models
  2. Some of the seasonals show Nina peaking into winter then rising shortly after.Strong wind burst is showing up today around 3.4 maybe in a couple weeks ,though this could change.MJO has some strong signals by both the GEFS and Euro showing it in the Western Pacific.Sure hope the NMME is wrong for Nov.,one of our wettest months climo could potentially get robbed looking at it.
  3. NMME shows a weak to moderate Nina.SST's in the Gulf of Mexico running well above normal.
  4. Just kinda curious but isn't the storm further west than what the GFS is showing it ?
  5. No drought in our area, which is good news to me.These tropical systems this year has been unreal for our area.
  6. The jury is still out what kind of Nina we will have if we do even have one.Right now a Upwelling Kelvin Wave moving around the equatorial Pacific looks even stronger than a few days ago
  7. Rare to see a Nina develop so late in the year.Ninas usually develops in the late spring and summer time.1984 was the latest ever on the tri-monthlies on the ONI (S-O-N) Though you could count 1974 as well, but this was a drop in between two Nina's.Close to being a historic Nina time 1973 1.7 1.2 0.6 0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.7 -1.9 -1.9 1974 -1.7 -1.5 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 1975 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1976 -1.5 -1.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8
  8. Mt.Agung is on high alert https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/press/view.php?id=95 Edit:You have to translate the article,just saying.I use Goggle Chrome,not sure how other servers will work
  9. Jamstec,IMME and NMME all show AN precip in D,J,F.
  10. US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee 17 hrs · This sudden re-emergence of summer isn't how we had planned autumn's overture. It was all humming along nicely until about 3 days ago when the sun finally re-emerged after Hurricane Irma's remnants and then summer released all that pent-up heat. Looking out 240 hours, which is as far out as the GFS & European models will take us, we don't see any pattern change. There are currently two hurricanes in the Atlantic, foremost of which is Jose, and he has not been playing nice. As long as he's around, the atmospheric circulation that affects us is in sort of a holding pattern. There is a ridge of high pressure running along the Appalachians, and a trough of low pressure stuck over the Great Plains, and as long as that trough stays to our west, there is no available mechanism to affect an air mass change. So that means above normal temperatures for at least the next 10 days. From tomorrow through Sunday, Nashville's predicted highs range from 85-89°, and our lows will run 65-68°. Granted, these aren't exactly oppressive temperatures, but normal high for today is 82° and normal low is 60°, so you have to conclude that we're being shafted. One could point out that the first half of September was well below normal, and there's that whole law of averages thing. But the law of averages also owes us a pleasant, placid and prolonged autumn followed by about 100 inches of snow this winter, and a list of other things. (We meteorologists have grievances, too.) Trust me, we at the NWS aren't happy about this turn of events, but it is what it is.
  11. You're not going to find any great analogs with past winters with a -QBO and Nina.We generally see the QBO fall off into the winter months,not always but in general it does.In 2000 which is closer in modern day era there was a severe drought in North America at this time also in 2000 the tropics were nothing but dead,not like this season
  12. Wondering if we see some tropical genesis the end of the month into the first of the month of Oct.It's rare to see Mid Tn feel the effects of any tropical system 2 times much less 3 times which could be possible.Guess we'll see
  13. Are the Indians ever going to lose again?Good grief,that's an impressive streak
  14. Marker on my Radar shows 44mph at the Chatty airport