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About jaxjagman

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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KBNA
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Location:
Franklin,TN
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Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not much rain,but 74 at 1PM is a relief -
The Phoon headed towrads SE Janpan is doing nothing,its warning the Yellow Sea and even Sea of Japan SSTS,general speaking there really dont seem like there is break down of the PDO any where soon,these waters shouldnt be warm but cold in a +PDO
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Made it to 101 today,should be a record On September 19, 1954...One of the hottest summers on record continues its strangle-hold on the mid state. Nashvilles high hits 97 degrees
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah we are seeing a phoon finally going to recurve but seemingly all its doing is warming especially into Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan ,these waters should be cold and not warm,maybe baby steps not very impressive,maybe this could change as the storm moves off of Japan,but still it was nice to see this for a change -
I guess Nashville is the true meaning of Music City Miracles,how crazy was that with Vandy against NCS,that was one of the ages,kudos to Vamdy,you cant make this stuff up
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Be kinda careful what the CFS is showing, the last several days its warmed down into the subsurface to around +10C around 55M,while yes 1+2 could mix out with any MJO moving across the WH,i dont think its gonna work out very well what the CfS is showing -
Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Maybe we are seeing a pattern change at least for a brief period upcoming,the IO is clearing out and the RRM's for the most part shows the MJO going into the WH next week.Some of the RRMS are going into the IO.This could cause the NINO background to get taking out and we do get a reprieve finally for a short time,believe it when i see it,already see the models showing a phoon headed towards S/Japan in the long range,this hasnt worked out very well in this strong NINIO and the phoon goes into East China and builds a ridge off SE Japan and we warm again -
Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
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Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah we better get aomething this weekend before the 597 sets in for a few days starting Monday for a few days next week anyways -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Just to add in 82-97-15,there has never been a SSWE into winter,left that out which should be noted -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
QBO looks just as brutal,its not even relative closer to its own COD where more planetary waves could seemingly effect the SPV,it looks fairly strong right now into winter -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
To muxh crap already going against this winter,You already have the -PDO at the end of August -1.1 which should be substainally positive right now in a strong NINO and the other is the strong WQBO which should have a chance ATM to be a brick SPV -
Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Maybe we are starting to see a pattern change the next several days.The stubborn ridge off Souitheast Asia is semmingly getting shunted East towards the Central Pac per the ensembles,as to where the MJO goes could seemingly just be getting destrucive interference from Rossy/Kelvin closer to the MC,which JMA has been comsistent in showing but the JMA hasnt been doing a spectacular job as of late -
We dont do very well in MId Tn with a strong NINO,Just as well you mention the QBO,which could lead into a strong SPV.Maybe this winter has its own analogs,just as well you mention the solar and no active volcanoes to add to that as well,meh
