jaxjagman

Maybe this Nino has a mind of it own,its still mind boggling to see the PDO so negative,it should be the oppostite right now.maybe that will change in the couple months ahead Tn Valley in a typical strong NINO is dry unlike the 2015-16 Nino that was in a west based and central NINO unlike this year.We just as well we are in a WQBO and should stay that way this winter

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0976 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 212 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026 Areas affected...Mid-South Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 081812Z - 090000Z SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates will promote concerns for at least isolated areas of flash flooding going through the afternoon and early evening hours. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops across areas of northern MS, western TN and northwest AL in association with developing clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Additional activity is also noted farther east across the Cumberland Plateau region of eastern TN. The activity is initiating and expanding in coverage as a well-defined mid-level vort center over eastern AR drifts east into a very moist and unstable airmass pooled up across the broader Mid-South. Farther east, there is also the influence from terrain and differential heating boundaries. MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and PWs of 1.75 to 2+ inches are in place across the region. The strong boundary layer heating with solar insolation will continue to help drive increasing levels of instability over the next few hours, and this will couple with the evolution of smaller-scale outflow boundary activity for additional convection to develop and expand in coverage. Local orographic ascent near areas of elevation will also be a key player in driving more areas of convection. The morning 12Z RAOB soundings from KLZK, KBNA and KBMX confirm rather high WBZ heights and plenty of moisture extending through the vertical column. This will support high efficiency with this afternoon's convection with high rainfall rates that will be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms. The lack of effective bulk shear suggests the convective mode should mainly be pulse in nature, but there may be enough outflow boundary collisions and cold pool activity to facilitate some loosely organized multi-cell convection. This coupled with slow cell-motions and some cell-merger potential may help yield some localized 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals over the next several hours. This will drive a threat for at least isolated areas of flash flooding, with the more urbanized locations at greatest risk for impacts. Orrison ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG... MRX...OHX...PAH...

SE TN needs some rain,most of that part has been more scattered rains,its basically the only part of TN thats in a drought right now

Not a good day to start the State fair in Williamson CO...lol

If you actually compare the PDO compared to 82,it should have some decent resemblence unlike 97

I still like more or less the 97 NINO myself,as to if we get like 98 again is in question The 2015-16 started in actually 2014,it actually matured faster and was probably to some extent could have been even stronger than this year. The problem in 2015 was the Walker Circulation crapped out which looks to be fairly strong right now to some extent and you see strong trades coming off of SA,so you didnt all the WWB and DWKW like you see in 82-97 and even right now

Most of the BN on the NMME is probably being caused by an abundance of rain.But we'll see. In early 98 during a strong Nino the Cumberland had quite a storm caused by dynamical cooling,it was only suppose to be cool light rain,but they ended up with over 20" of wet snow..lol Maybe this winter will have its own analogs as strong as it seems to be ATM.Typically right now the PDO should be more + than - When the strong NINO in 98 started to decline into winter,during April was quite severe,that was the year Southern TN had the F5 tornado.Not saying that will happen agin,just pointing that out

This dont ATM seem to look anything like 2015-2016 Strong NINO. The strong Nino during this time started early in 2014,during 2015 the Walker Circulationn got funky and just as much the Hadley.You saw much stronger trade winds blowing off South America.Compared to 82-97,those NINOs were Central and East Based,2015 was central and west based

Latest NMME into winter

Typhoons in East Asia can definite cause unexpected pattern changes.But the problem is at least to me is there are two phoons while the strongest phoon is directed towards east China,the phoon is the WP actually to some extent counters the phoon headed towards China,you dont see no big height rises into the Koreas into Japan.The -NAO right now is just as well a player,heat should return in the plains along with the MJO moving into the MC,WP,this is MHO

MJO moving into the Maritime.GFS and Euro is trying to light the torch for our parts but we seem to be in a -NAO right now into the next several days Typically the MJO moving into P5 mean this time of year heat stroke moves into the plains not us,ensembles seem to look good ATM

All good,i saw where Mark Baldwin posted it and he gave credit to the poster

Nice VID,looks like a spinner to me

Subsurface temps are now around +9C along a broad area,record was set back in 97-15 Ninos 10C,should make a run to tie that at least in the upcoming period,seemingly