jaxjagman

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About jaxjagman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBNA
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  • Location:
    Brentwood,Tn.

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  1. Should be snow with your elevation GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: CSV LAT= 35.95 LON= -85.08 ELE= 1880 00Z DEC15 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 00Z 15-DEC 4.4 -0.4 132 4396 26001 0.00 SUN 06Z 15-DEC 2.8 0.2 132 4886 25003 0.00 0.00 SUN 12Z 15-DEC 3.0 2.7 131 6586 27003 0.00 0.00 SUN 18Z 15-DEC 9.4 4.0 133 7544 18004 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 16-DEC 8.4 7.4 135 10437 16008 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 16-DEC 11.6 9.8 136 11305 18012 0.02 0.00 MON 12Z 16-DEC 13.2 9.8 136 11081 20010 0.03 0.00 MON 18Z 16-DEC 16.6 9.6 137 11971 20013 0.06 0.00 TUE 00Z 17-DEC 14.3 9.8 137 10638 19014 RA 0.19 0.00 TUE 06Z 17-DEC 14.4 11.3 137 10573 22006 1.16 0.00 TUE 12Z 17-DEC 6.9 2.5 133 10706 30009 0.03 0.00 TUE 18Z 17-DEC 3.2 -3.6 130 2616 33009 SN 0.00 0.00 WED 00Z 18-DEC 0.7 -6.4 129 1900 34009 SN 0.01 0.00 WED 06Z 18-DEC -1.1 -5.9 128 1094 33006 0.00 0.00 WED 12Z 18-DEC -3.6 -5.7 128 0 29004 0.00 0.00 WED 18Z 18-DEC 3.9 -4.6 130 2450 30007 0.00 0.00 THU 00Z 19-DEC -0.7 -3.7 129 1580 30004 0.00 0.00 THU 06Z 19-DEC -1.7 -1.3 129 835 27001 0.00 0.00 THU 12Z 19-DEC -2.0 2.3 130 7502 19003 0.00 0.00 THU 18Z 19-DEC 8.0 4.5 132 8542 23005 0.00 0.00 FRI 00Z 20-DEC 1.1 4.8 132 9365 22003 0.00 0.00 FRI 06Z 20-DEC 1.0 5.5 132 9318 17003 0.00 0.00 FRI 12Z 20-DEC 1.1 3.0 132 7786 20003 0.00 0.00 FRI 18Z 20-DEC 7.0 2.4 132 7202 19005 0.00 0.00 SAT 00Z 21-DEC 2.7 2.0 132 6228 15004 0.00 0.00 SAT 06Z 21-DEC 2.6 -0.2 132 4758 17004 0.00 0.00 SAT 12Z 21-DEC 2.8 0.1 131 4871 14004 RA 0.03 0.00 SAT 18Z 21-DEC 3.9 -0.8 131 4288 14002 RA 0.14 0.00 SUN 00Z 22-DEC 3.4 -1.9 131 3648 02003 RA 0.20 0.00
  2. Also remember how Rossby and Kelvin waves work.Rossby waves move east to west.Kelvin waves moves west to east.Alot of question marks with the MJO
  3. MJO continues to have destructive interference.Out into the Atlantic there are Rossby and Kelvin waves,there seems to also be a robust Rossby moving through the eatsern IO.This is where the GEFS shows the MJO signal in a couple days
  4. TNI broke the record again in Sept for most -ve,this makes two consecutive months which it has done this,August and Sept. 1981 -1.350 -1.094 -0.835 -0.558 -0.496 -0.464 -0.533 -0.605 -0.708 -0.617 -0.621 -0.708 1982 -1.067 -1.466 -1.922 -2.359 -2.364 -1.924 -1.418 -0.811 0.196 0.981 1.440 1.683 1983 1.822 1.991 2.282 2.929 3.734 4.227 4.143 3.867 3.183 2.462 1.814 1.411 1984 1.080 0.907 0.603 0.369 0.148 -0.183 -0.516 -0.536 -0.277 0.186 0.207 0.255 1985 0.366 0.147 -0.506 -0.572 -0.762 -1.244 -1.452 -1.337 -1.499 -1.379 -0.950 -0.623 1986 -0.564 -0.458 -0.515 -0.968 -1.395 -1.529 -1.727 -1.860 -1.769 -1.689 -1.616 -1.322 1987 -0.980 -0.584 -0.221 -0.192 -0.289 -0.497 -0.835 -1.008 -1.191 -1.283 -1.465 -1.566 1988 -1.718 -1.557 -1.350 -1.229 -1.016 -0.911 -0.771 -0.447 0.274 0.875 1.614 2.362 1989 2.629 2.577 2.039 1.436 0.658 0.103 -0.400 -0.420 -0.404 -0.559 -0.839 -1.019 1990 -1.314 -1.647 -1.634 -1.573 -1.714 -1.810 -1.880 -2.165 -2.399 -2.380 -2.437 -2.357 1991 -2.109 -2.090 -2.002 -1.793 -1.766 -1.843 -1.672 -1.706 -1.655 -1.657 -1.664 -1.625 1992 -1.363 -0.945 -0.480 -0.278 -0.363 -0.564 -0.992 -1.276 -1.317 -1.219 -1.146 -0.878 1993 -0.819 -0.668 -0.417 -0.267 -0.481 -0.629 -0.854 -1.028 -1.186 -1.170 -1.162 -1.005 1994 -1.203 -1.399 -1.611 -1.847 -2.339 -2.750 -2.800 -2.609 -2.500 -2.194 -1.657 -1.493 1995 -1.726 -1.911 -2.190 -2.296 -2.263 -2.004 -1.533 -1.006 -0.569 -0.342 -0.188 -0.028 1996 0.036 -0.373 -0.600 -0.911 -1.525 -1.984 -2.020 -1.961 -1.890 -1.730 -1.662 -1.505 1997 -1.345 -1.149 -0.538 0.297 1.055 1.783 2.510 2.833 2.944 3.090 3.037 2.858 1998 2.716 2.870 3.045 2.983 3.164 3.210 2.762 2.450 2.368 2.262 2.225 2.475 1999 2.451 2.095 1.700 1.138 0.449 -0.101 -0.311 -0.369 -0.200 0.152 0.477 1.065 2000 1.452 1.827 1.857 1.494 0.783 0.170 -0.465 -0.707 -0.798 -0.377 -0.097 0.362 2001 0.785 1.250 0.853 0.239 -0.568 -1.504 -2.452 -2.846 -2.858 -2.637 -2.674 -2.370 2002 -1.780 -1.343 -1.287 -1.326 -1.663 -2.335 -2.871 -3.001 -2.878 -2.546 -2.413 -2.311 2003 -2.523 -2.644 -2.910 -2.995 -3.040 -2.895 -2.723 -2.412 -2.082 -1.738 -1.596 -1.522 2004 -1.600 -1.571 -1.913 -2.272 -2.637 -2.999 -3.376 -3.253 -2.993 -2.731 -2.505 -2.393 2005 -2.598 -2.605 -2.408 -2.383 -2.284 -1.897 -1.885 -2.124 -1.999 -1.668 -1.264 -0.475 2006 0.151 0.067 -0.099 -0.601 -1.170 -1.501 -1.289 -1.087 -0.991 -1.131 -1.184 -1.204 2007 -1.594 -1.834 -2.022 -2.341 -2.655 -2.697 -2.565 -2.305 -1.865 -1.291 -0.302 0.850 2008 1.836 2.404 2.671 2.493 2.015 1.613 1.429 1.173 0.955 0.839 0.787 0.779 2009 0.793 0.753 0.514 0.107 -0.284 -0.476 -0.848 -1.309 -1.687 -2.025 -2.418 -2.571 2010 -2.649 -2.398 -2.127 -1.750 -1.548 -0.957 -0.564 -0.218 0.113 0.681 1.167 1.530 2011 1.523 1.577 1.546 1.271 0.844 0.675 0.387 0.168 -0.029 0.070 0.363 0.844 2012 1.082 1.479 1.613 1.596 1.191 0.601 -0.046 -0.718 -1.412 -1.740 -1.626 -1.515 2013 -1.149 -0.999 -1.167 -1.528 -1.929 -2.379 -2.398 -2.185 -1.936 -1.583 -1.043 -1.077 2014 -1.358 -1.503 -1.408 -1.483 -1.122 -0.636 -0.406 -0.499 -0.813 -1.238 -1.715 -2.117 2015 -2.476 -2.435 -1.984 -1.434 -0.702 -0.198 0.100 0.112 -0.139 -0.404 -0.676 -1.188 2016 -1.630 -1.802 -1.946 -1.978 -1.763 -1.441 -0.968 -0.508 -0.101 0.324 0.690 1.097 2017 1.447 1.465 1.268 0.592 -0.267 -1.150 -1.575 -1.925 -1.847 -1.735 -1.548 -1.264 2018 -1.134 -1.260 -1.320 -1.650 -1.978 -2.118 -2.089 -2.159 -1.979 -1.890 -1.734 -1.700 2019 -1.725 -1.774 -1.892 -2.226 -2.535 -2.750 -3.045 -3.344 -3.286 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99
  5. Just for fun if you want to compare the +IOD this year to last it's very much stronger than last year.First pic is last,2nd is this year
  6. Seemingly a couple days ago the Euro showed the MJO going into the warm phases 4 and 5,believe more or less what it was just seeing was a Kelvin Wave which is what iS being shown,It's now looking more GEFS it's why i believe the GEFS is more right with the signal getting into the WH upcoming.The MJO like i said earlier has destructive interference with it from Rossby and Kelvin waves
  7. I thought we'd start to see a warm up around the 18th,but got suckered into the GEFS yesterday.The MJO is quite similar to the upcoming 5H pattern the Euro shows going into phase2 in Dec.But all signs are we are going to warm up upcoming especailly more in our parts,west and central Valley..Also don't let people fool you about the +IOD,it's still much stronger than normal right now AND all signs it should stay that way at least into the 2nd week of Jan. ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z DEC13 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 12Z 13-DEC 3.1 2.0 -2 -25 1 3 FRI 18Z 13-DEC 3.9 1.8 -6 46 -3 2 SAT 00Z 14-DEC 4.1 0.5 -11 1098 50 39.43 -9 0 SAT 06Z 14-DEC 4.0 -1.4 -14 1098 37 39.37 -16 -4 SAT 12Z 14-DEC 3.1 -3.8 -14 1097 16 39.34 -19 -7 SAT 18Z 14-DEC 5.6 -3.5 -12 1067 49 39.34 -21 -11 SUN 00Z 15-DEC 3.2 -3.1 -9 -20 -15 -7 SUN 06Z 15-DEC 0.5 -2.8 -6 2 -11 -6 SUN 12Z 15-DEC -0.4 0.1 -2 46 -7 -5 SUN 18Z 15-DEC 6.4 0.4 -1 47 -2 -1 MON 00Z 16-DEC 4.6 1.2 -3 1074 36 39.34 2 5 MON 06Z 16-DEC 8.3 7.0 -8 1085 26 39.35 4 10 MON 12Z 16-DEC 10.8 7.5 -8 1090 -3 39.36 5 12 MON 18Z 16-DEC 13.9 8.4 -11 1090 45 39.48 4 14 TUE 00Z 17-DEC 12.5 8.9 -14 32 2 13 TUE 06Z 17-DEC 9.2 6.8 -14 25 -1 10 TUE 12Z 17-DEC 0.5 -4.2 -6 -37 -6 0 TUE 18Z 17-DEC -0.8 -9.6 -2 -27 -12 -10 WED 00Z 18-DEC -0.7 -10.6 1 -16 -18 -18 WED 06Z 18-DEC -4.8 -10.2 4 -22 -18 -20 WED 12Z 18-DEC -6.9 -7.8 6 3 -13 -17 WED 18Z 18-DEC 1.8 -6.5 7 -11 -6 -11 THU 00Z 19-DEC -1.9 -4.4 7 -14 0 -5 THU 06Z 19-DEC -4.3 -1.7 9 -23 4 -2 THU 12Z 19-DEC -5.7 0.5 10 -37 8 0 THU 18Z 19-DEC 5.6 2.1 10 -38 9 1 FRI 00Z 20-DEC 1.3 1.6 9 -36 9 2 FRI 06Z 20-DEC 0.0 0.5 9 -24 7 0 FRI 12Z 20-DEC -0.3 -0.6 9 -35 4 -2 FRI 18Z 20-DEC 6.0 -0.8 7 25 1 -4 SAT 00Z 21-DEC 2.3 -0.1 5 -30 4 0 SAT 06Z 21-DEC 0.0 2.2 5 -2 5 2 SAT 12Z 21-DEC -0.6 4.3 4 -20 6 3 SAT 18Z 21-DEC 10.1 4.9 1 -34 7 6 SUN 00Z 22-DEC 6.8 3.4 0 -34 7 7 SUN 06Z 22-DEC 4.7 6.8 0 -14 7 7 SUN 12Z 22-DEC 4.1 9.4 0 -29 9 9 SUN 18Z 22-DEC 12.6 10.7 -3 -32 10 12 MON 00Z 23-DEC 9.8 10.0 -6 -38 11 16 MON 06Z 23-DEC 7.6 8.5 -6 -40 11 16 MON 12Z 23-DEC 7.4 7.3 -6 -40 11 16
  8. If the EPS control is anywhere right,it's going to get cold towards the end of the year and it will stay cold until Mid Jan and beyond,but that's like always a big "IF"
  9. MJO shows alot of destructive interference from Rossby-Kelvin waves.If it does move into the Maritime it's not going to stay there very long and will be back into the WH and Africa afterwards,least that is what it looks like right now. The ensembles today are fairly well clusted in showing a -AO before Christmas,yesterday it was a couple days after, but now there is not much signs of a +PNA..Euro shows a Low over Alaska the same time the the GEFS pumps up Alaska
  10. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday - Lower MS and TN Valley Vicinity... A positively tilted shortwave mid/upper trough will eject from the Plains northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing a band of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across much of the south-central and Midwestern states. At the surface, low pressure over Arkansas will track northeast along the Ohio River toward western PA by Tuesday morning. Strong south/southwesterly low-level flow will bring Gulf moisture north and east across much of the southern U.S., with 60s dewpoints reaching as far north northern AL and perhaps middle TN. Forecast soundings indicate shear supportive of rotating updrafts and supercell structures. However, deep-layer flow will mostly parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front, likely leading to messy storm mode. Nevertheless, MUCAPE of around 500-1500 J/kg is expected across the warm sector and a southwesterly low level jet greater than 40 kt is forecast by most guidance. This should be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered severe cells and line segments capable of damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and possibly hail (where cells can remain discrete). Some uncertainty in north and east extent of the severe threat remains, and some changes are likely in coming outlook updates.
  11. Teleconnections show the AO possibly could possibly tank just after Christmas with a possibly rising PNA and a weak -NAO,cold signs just after Christmas
  12. Jamstec did a 180 this update.What looked to be a -NAO/+PDO did a flip flop,it's cold in the west and warm east. This morning the EPS wants to punch the PV,50MB it's still far out.Wave -2 looks better and better each day tho
  13. JAMSTEC keeps more Nino conditions alive through summer
  14. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains on D4/Sunday, continuing through the mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Guidance differs on the location of the surface low associated with this shortwave trough, with current forecasts of its position at 12Z D5/Monday ranging from the KS/OK/MO border intersection to central TX. Even with these differences, consensus is good for a moist and moderately unstable environment from the Lower MS Valley through the TN Valley on D5/Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave. Strong vertical shear will extend across this region, supporting long hodographs and supercell wind profiles. Consequently, there is a threat for severe thunderstorms D5/Monday afternoon and evening from the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley as the shortwave trough and associated cold front move through. Forecast confidence is high enough to introduce severe probabilities. Refinements to this area are likely in subsequent forecast as mesoscale details become more apparent. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the front as it continues eastward through the remainder of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Tuesday. However, favorable low-level moisture and instability will become increasingly displaced south of the better large-scale forcing for ascent, suggesting a more limited severe risk. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected across the CONUS on D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday.