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jaxjagman

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About jaxjagman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBNA
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    Brentwood,Tn.

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  1. jaxjagman

    ENSO 2018-2019

    Jamstec,looks more SERish right now for next winter.(-)neutral ENSO
  2. jaxjagman

    ENSO 2018-2019

    Nino has been weakening the past few weeks,still looks fairly warm down to around 100m into the thermocline
  3. jaxjagman

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

    CIPS shows the best tornado risk in the SW portion of the Valley,Thursday.Not very many good analogs with this system, for the Valley anyways.
  4. jaxjagman

    Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

    https://www.facebook.com/tom.hensley.31/videos/2371479396218563/
  5. jaxjagman

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

    The MJO looks like it's going to show face upcoming into the IO but then potentially go hide back into the COD around the last week of April with some potential ENSO destructive interference it seems.The SOI around the 9-12th of April dropped around 40 points from a more Nina to a Nino pattern.Looks to me we should potentially see a decent system into the first week of May coming off East Asia the last week of April,how teleconnections work out is another thing.
  6. jaxjagman

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Yeah,i agree.Though right now there is some timing differences for Thursday.The better look in our area right now seems to be in N/AL like you said.Though i would certainly not rule out anything severe into Mid/Tn during diurnal heating
  7. jaxjagman

    4/12/19 - 4/13/19 Dixie Alley Outbreak

    Looks more mesovortice
  8. jaxjagman

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Mesoscale Discussion 0343 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Areas affected...Portions of Eastern Tennessee and Northwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141900Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms have begun to initiate along a confluence zone in eastern Tennessee. Further development southward into northwest Georgia is possible. Strong wind fields will support organized storms capable of all severe hazards. A tornado watch is possible within the next hour. DISCUSSION...In the wake of early morning convection, modest boundary layer recovery has occurred across eastern Tennessee. An area of agitated cumulus has developed along a confluence zone just east of Crossville, TN. Surface observations from the last hour have indicated that boundary layer moisture has mixed out to a degree. Nonetheless, dewpoints in the upper-50s to low 60s have contributed to MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. As storms are now beginning to develop on the north end of the confluence band, the expectation is for continued development southward, as supported by some CAMs. Given the strong wind fields -- effective bulk shear of 60-75 kts per objective mesoanalysis -- organized convection capable of all hazards is expected. A tornado watch is possible within the next hour.
  9. jaxjagman

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Not really sure,models still show a severe threat late morning into early afternoon Edit:That's for you guys in the East,not in the Middle/West Valley
  10. jaxjagman

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    WF is still stuck in around B'ham which is what RAOBS shows,should have been well North or at least north of I-40
  11. jaxjagman

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 55 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and central Alabama Eastern Mississippi * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 710 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and potentially increase through late evening across eastern Mississippi into northern/central portions of Alabama, with the most intense storms favoring a sub-regional area near a warm front where low-level shear is maximized. This will include the potential for a few semi-discrete supercells, although a mixed convective mode is most likely. Tornadoes will be possible, a couple of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and possibly hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Meridian MS to 20 miles northeast of Birmingham AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU
  12. jaxjagman

    April 13th-14th Severe Threat

    Those cells are popping up quick around Vicksburg for sure
  13. jaxjagman

    April 13th-14th Severe Threat

    3" hail marker east of Vickburg
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