jaxjagman

We got thunderstorms again here also,models kept showing today an inverted trough with PW'S over 1.8",hopefully those cells to the west dont die out,we could use all we can get

But who knows,some are close to being a more "Modoki",that could just as well be winter.look at how warm it still is off of East Asia,SST'S

Not really sure,way to soon to believe any model right now but right now it sure looks like a SER into late winter and possibly a active early severe season

This winter is looking like more and more 2015-2016 if you resemble the ENSO.It wasnt exactly boring for us in MId TN back then,we had severe and a couple winter storms in Jan,Dec was exceptionally warm tho.The whole winter was AN for temps,but its NINA,so that shouldnt be a surprise.Be nice to at least get some snow,but nothing is giving in Tn,unless you are in the mountains

Our yard has had patches since May,its getting worse but at least today we are getting some thunderstorms with some nice cells producing.So far to me this looks more of a east based NINA into winter,since Mid May the thermocline has warmed and not cooled around 55M,but that dont mean crap right now.Sure looks warm as we head towards the 4th,upper level ridge with a 597 parked above by the GFS,yippee

I found this on Twitterhttps://x.com/Dentonwx/status/1797090493664272545/photo/1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 940 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will likely move into Tennessee tonight. Embedded supercells and line-embedded mesovortices will potentially be capable of tornadoes and severe gusts. The environment will potentially support the risk for strong tornadoes, in addition to swaths of severe gusts.

Per Rap, STP is now 6.9 around into portions of Mid Tn

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Illinois Western Kentucky East-Central and Southeast Missouri Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 75 mph likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop across the watch area through this evening. Several tornadoes are likely, some of which are expected to be intense. Very large hail is also likely, along with the risk for potentially significant damaging wind gusts.

Mesoscale Discussion 0984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of Middle into eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262042Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of middle into eastern Tennessee. Large hail is becoming the main concern as storms become more supercellular through the afternoon. A couple of tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. Either a new WW issuance or local expansions of existing watches are needed. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has gradually transitioned to a more supercellular mode over the past couple of hours, with a dominant supercell recently producing severe hail. Other supercells are beginning to form in the warm sector as well, including in spots where the airmass remains pristine. Given ample buoyancy/shear and the more cellular mode, severe hail will become the main threat over Middle into eastern TN over the next few hours, though a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts are still possible. As such, either a new WW issuance or expansion of existing watches is needed to address the present severe weather scenario.

Lots of supercells seem to popping up in East Tn

Tornado warn Rockwood

Moderate risk for tonight now Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat.

Been some rotation with that hook towards Frankin right now,just isnt tighten up right now

Should have said west of Fairview