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About jaxjagman

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  1. ENSO 2018

    SOI finally got out of negative today where it's been sitting all month and sits at +14 today.
  2. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday from a portion of northeast Texas through the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ...Northeast TX into the lower Mississippi Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle to upper MS Valley region Saturday and Saturday night while taking on a negative tilt. In response to forcing accompanying this feature, a surface low initially over the southern Plains will deepen as it develops northeast through the middle MS Valley, eventually reaching the Great Lakes toward the end of the period. Warm front extending east from the surface low will move northward, reaching the OH Valley Saturday night. A cold front initially across west TX will advance through the Southern Plains and middle to lower MS Valley during the day reaching the OH and TN Valleys Saturday night. A strengthening low-level jet resulting from the deepening cyclone will transport richer gulf moisture northward with low 60s F dewpoints as far as the OH Valley and mid to upper 60s from east TX to the lower MS Valley. However, instability will probably remain marginal due to widespread clouds and modest lapse rates with MLCAPE likely to remain below 1000 J/kg over most of the warm sector. A forced line of potentially strong to severe storms should evolve in vicinity of cold front initially over north central or northeast TX into southeast OK during the day. Activity will subsequently move into the lower MS, TN and OH Valley regions as the low-level jet strengthens to 60+ kt and shifts northeast through moistening warm sector. Vertical shear and overall character of wind profiles will be more than adequate for organized severe storms, with potential for LEWP, bowing segments and a few embedded supercells capable of damaging wind and a few tornadoes. An upgrade to higher probabilities might be needed in later outlooks once uncertainties regarding the thermodynamic environment have been mitigated.
  3. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    SIGTOR showing 45% out in parts of the Ms and Ark,30% in parts of the Western Valley,Saturday.The GFS was slightly faster tonight.The VBV that Jeff talked about above is not near as bad today as it's been showing.
  4. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Records lows in the west and highs in the east http://coolwx.com/record/usamovie.day.php
  5. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210956 SPC AC 210956 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle MS Valley region (Day 4) Saturday and Saturday night. Some deamplification is expected, but the trough will take on a more negative tilt as it approaches the middle MS Valley. GFS is still the stronger solution with deeper cyclogenesis and suggests potential for a slightly more robust severe threat. In either case a forced line of potentially strong to severe storms might evolve in vicinity of cold front initially over northeast TX, before spreading into the lower MS and TN Valley regions as the low-level jet strengthens and shifts northeast through moistening warm sector. While vertical shear and overall character of the wind profiles should be more than adequate for organized severe storms, primary limiting factor appears to be a marginal thermodynamic environment given likelihood of widespread clouds and weak lapse rates. Some severe threat might linger into Sunday (day 5) over a portion of the Middle Atlantic, but confidence is not high enough at this time to introduce a categorical area. Overall severe potential should remain low day 6 into day 7 as a cold front settles into the northern Gulf coastal area.
  6. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Here is Nashville averages 1971-2000 http://drought.unl.edu/archive/climographs/pdf/Nashville.pdf Memphis http://drought.unl.edu/archive/climographs/pdf/Memphis.pdf You can try this site also, just click your state.But like it says: Important Note: 8/5/2011 - County names have been added, but there are some errors. Use with caution. http://ggweather.com/normals/monthly.htm
  7. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Models can't get along.Euro was about 6 hrs slower and the GFS much stronger on the 0Z run, but , the GFS did close the gap on the 6Z run.Euro might be over doing the instabilities which it can tend to do at this time. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that a significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle MS Valley region (Day 5) Saturday and Saturday night. Some deamplification of this feature is expected, but model differences persist. GFS maintains a more amplified trough with a deeper surface low suggesting the potential for a greater severe threat compared to ECMWF, UKMET and the Canadian. In either case a few severe storms might evolve in vicinity of frontal zone from east TX into the lower MS and TN Valley region as the low-level jet strengthens and shifts northeast in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Storms may be ongoing along baroclinic zone over a portion of this region, with potential to intensify within zone of modest destabilization and forcing associated with the migrating low-level jet. Limiting factors are likelihood of widespread clouds and tendency for the approaching shortwave trough to weaken with deeper forcing likely remaining northwest of warm sector. Some severe threat might linger into day 6, but overall potential should decrease later day 6 into day 7 as a cold front moves into the northern Gulf coast area. ..Dial.. 02/20/2018
  8. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Better agreement/consistency is evident at this time with respect to various medium-range model runs through a majority of the day 4-8 period, as compared to 24 hours prior. Models in general depict that a major short-wave trough -- digging across California and the Great Basin day 4 (Thursday) will eject east across the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies day 5, and then the central and southern Plains day 6 (Saturday). While this feature is progged to weaken/deamplify with time due to persistence of southeastern U.S. ridging, surface lee cyclogenesis is expected over the southern High Plains early in the day which will deepen/shift quickly east-northeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest overnight. Ahead of this system, low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico should prove sufficient for at least some warm-sector CAPE development which -- combined with what should be a favorable background lower- and middle-tropospheric wind field -- suggests that some severe weather risk may evolve Saturday. While degree of instability may limit risk to some degree, ample evidence exists to suggest initial introduction of 15% severe weather probability from the Arklatex vicinity east across parts of the lower Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valleys. As the weakening upper system shifts quickly east-northeast across the lower Great Lakes region day 7 (Sunday), expect the trailing surface front to weaken and become oriented increasingly west-to-east across the Gulf Coast region, suggestive of diminished severe potential. In addition, model differences increasing through the end of the period result in reduced confidence with respect to the convective forecast through early next week.
  9. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    I love reading Nashville's disco National Weather Service Nashville TN 609 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... It`s an absolutely fantastic day in Middle TN. The sun is out -- finally -- temperatures have climbed into the upper 50s and there isn`t but a whisper of wind. Ok, yes. Most would like to see a few more ticks north on the mercury. For those who want it warmer, I`ve got a treat for you over the next couple of days. However, let`s start with tonight. Partly cloudy skies this afternoon are going to give way to an overcast cloud deck this evening as a warm front lifts northward through Middle TN. Spotty showers are likely to accompany the warm front passage, though I don`t think everyone will see rain. Even if you do, it isn`t going to be much. A tenth at the most. In addition, overnight lows are likely to occur prior to midnight as we should see temperatures climb after midnight. Tonight`s frontal passage is going to set the stage for the next several days: potential record highs (and lows) and yes, more rain. I`ll address the record temperatures in the climate section below, so let`s focus on the rain. If you didn`t know, the ground is wet. Really wet. Even if you`ve been living under a rock, you`d know this. Several area rivers, streams and many creeks are still swollen from rains last week and yesterday. These antecedent conditions are going to become very important starting Wednesday afternoon, as our next batch of showers begins to move into the mid-state. Fortunately, we are going to have a couple of days of very warm, dry and (very) windy days to help dry things out, but QPF values being suggested in latest medium and extended range forecasts have my attention. Between the first weather system due in here Wednesday evening and another progged for next weekend, the GFS and the Euro have 4 inch contours encroaching into our NW counties and the Euro actually has a 6 inch contour creeping into Stewart County. WPC has posted a Moderate risk for areas west of here (AR and MO) for Day 3 (Tuesday into Tuesday night) and I wouldn`t be surprised to see something like this for us by Wednesday and if not then, by next weekend. RFC Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) values are already running between 1.5 and 2.5 inches for both 3 and 6 hr guidance. This is likely to improve a little come Wednesday night, however it will still be running low. Putting it all together, even if we don`t deal with any flash flooding, area rivers and streams are likely going to have a detrimental response to the rainfall this coming week. Hear me though -- I`m NOT talking about May 2010 flooding. I`m saying, stay weather aware throughout this week as there could be some minor to moderate river flooding by week`s end and some other localized flooding issues as early as Wednesday night. I will update the Hazardous Weather Outlook this afternoon to highlight these concerns and likely issue a Hydrologic Outlook by Tuesday as we review what the drier air can do to help us.
  10. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Next Sunday the Euro and the Control for that matter pumps up the ridge in the east and has a slower progressive cold front of almost a day via the GFS.Not sure which is right but by the pattern we are in right now the Euro could be right.But the Euro and Control both show what could be a strong shortwave that effects the Valley next Sunday for some potential severe weather.The GFS tho is showing a shortwave further south Sat with it's progressive look,either way we could be seeing our first severe thunderstorms of the year upcoming.We're getting into Climo time into the Valley
  11. ENSO 2018

    We'll see.The thermocline shows some warm waters around the IDL east and west,though yes cooler anoms further to the east of the IDL.The MJO could be into the IO into March then going into the West Pac so we'll see what happens upcoming
  12. Winter Banter 2017/18

    Auburn lost to SC today.But the big story would be the loss of McLemore who dislocated his ankle.Bad timing and a big blow for us.We won't go far without him and Brown with a bum shouder. I'm expecting that we won't be eligible for the tournament either way with the investigation on going and what is said to be almost wrapped up.But now almost 3 dozen teams teams could be affected by the last SI report.But you never know with the NCAA,you can have one team do the crime and another team do the same crime and one team could could slapped hard while the other team gets there hand slapped and nothing comes of it https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/02/14/college-basketball-recruiting-scandal-fbi-probe-violations-punishments
  13. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Euro and GEFS are having a tough time with the MJO.Euro did keep it out of the COD today tho and don't go into the COD until phase 3,but still looks like it could be on the fast side.MJO into the first week of March could be in India into the IO
  14. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    I'm gonna take a stab at this and might be wrong.But looking at the GFS,Euro and EPS they all show this around day 10 a ridge into Korea,with a trough going into Mongolia and lower heights off the Japan coast.This should set up a potential Tn Valley ridge into the 1st week of March(5th or 6th?) that moves east and the Atlantic low being shown should be further east than what is being shown.
  15. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    And here is the link to that map JB posted,it updates daily,but expect to see changes in the long range,just saying it changes daily especially in the long range. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html