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jaxjagman

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About jaxjagman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBNA
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  • Location:
    Brentwood,Tn.

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  1. jaxjagman

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of Feb 17th

    National Weather Service Nashville TN 533 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... ...Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Likely This Week... A very wet pattern will be in place this week with several rounds of rainfall, heavy at times. Our latest total QPF through the next 7 days ranges from 5 to 10 inches of rainfall in Middle Tennessee. The biggest problem is exactly where the heavier amounts will occur. Each wave that moves across the area could set up a narrow axis of especially heavy rainfall, and the position of each could vary significantly or could repeatedly focus over one area. Models are varying with qpf axis, so it is important that we not focus on just one area for flooding potential. The pattern and expected rainfall will present a threat for flooding across the entire Mid State. This includes flooding of streets, low lying and flood-prone areas, streams, and the major rivers. Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder were ongoing at 3 AM CST. We expect a this wave of showers and isolated thunderstorms to move across the area this morning with one tenth to one half inch of rainfall, then a second wave this afternoon and evening will impact mainly the southeast half of the area with another quarter to half inch. Other than brief ponding on roads, there should not be any flood problems today. Temperatures will warm into the 50s. Showers will taper off tonight with a dry day Monday- probably the only dry day this week. For Tuesday through Wednesday, a big system will move slowly out of the Southern Rockies, setting up deep southwest flow into Tn and surrounding states. This flow will bring in upper level tropical moisture and a series of disturbances. The Gulf of Mexico will open up with development of a 40-50KT LLJ transporting abundant low level moisture directly to the Tn Valley. A surface trough will set up over Mid Tn, becoming a focus for potentially excessive rainfall. Repeated episodes of heavy rainfall are likely from late Tuesday through Wednesday with the upper flow being parallel to the low level trough axis. The rainfall intensity may ease up a bit for Thursday and Friday, then models show another surge of heavy rainfall by next weekend. Too soon for any watches today- we will continue with a Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) and heavy rain / flood potential messaging through social media. We ask local media to place emphasis on the hydro message - possible major flooding- for the entire area.
  2. jaxjagman

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    Pretty well tells how this winter has been,after all the potential rains without any cold the Euro goes zonal and dry,so done with this winter
  3. jaxjagman

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    The SOI is at today -29.88,that's the most negative i've see it in quite sometime,maybe ever?..lol
  4. jaxjagman

    ENSO 2018-2019

    Jamstec is showing an developing LaNina into fall.This should be updated and O-N-D.Possibly an early winter season what it shows depending on any SSWE or how strong it gets
  5. jaxjagman

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of Feb 17th

    Not sure about 10".But i'm going by the Euro and not GFS.There's more convection shown.Also the DP depression would most certainly be fog and rain . 12Z FEB16 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR 6 HR 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW CAPE QPF CVP NCP HGT 500 (C) (C) J/KG (IN) (IN) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 16-FEB 5.9 5.4 1 561 553 SAT 18Z 16-FEB 11.1 4.7 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 564 555 SUN 00Z 17-FEB 8.8 5.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 565 556 SUN 06Z 17-FEB 6.3 4.2 13 0.01 0.00 0.00 566 557 SUN 12Z 17-FEB 8.4 7.9 16 0.16 0.13 0.03 567 558 SUN 18Z 17-FEB 11.7 10.8 21 0.08 0.01 0.06 569 560 MON 00Z 18-FEB 12.0 11.9 120 0.13 0.04 0.09 570 562 MON 06Z 18-FEB 10.7 10.6 17 0.71 0.15 0.56 570 559 MON 12Z 18-FEB 4.4 3.8 0 0.15 0.06 0.09 569 553 MON 18Z 18-FEB 11.3 -0.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 572 552 TUE 00Z 19-FEB 6.9 -2.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 574 553 TUE 06Z 19-FEB 2.2 -2.8 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 577 552 TUE 12Z 19-FEB 1.3 -3.7 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 577 551 TUE 18Z 19-FEB 5.3 1.8 0 0.07 0.05 0.02 579 554 WED 00Z 20-FEB 3.9 3.8 13 0.52 0.18 0.34 579 556 WED 06Z 20-FEB 4.5 3.6 121 0.36 0.20 0.16 579 561 WED 12Z 20-FEB 5.7 4.8 4 0.06 0.02 0.04 579 562 WED 18Z 20-FEB 10.4 8.5 128 0.10 0.07 0.03 579 564 THU 00Z 21-FEB 9.7 9.6 326 0.50 0.38 0.13 578 565 THU 06Z 21-FEB 11.5 11.5 526 0.48 0.38 0.09 577 565 THU 12Z 21-FEB 12.3 12.1 233 0.54 0.37 0.17 576 564 THU 18Z 21-FEB 14.0 13.4 238 0.24 0.11 0.13 576 563 FRI 00Z 22-FEB 9.5 9.0 38 0.58 0.32 0.26 576 561 FRI 06Z 22-FEB 7.9 7.4 1 0.14 0.05 0.09 577 561 FRI 12Z 22-FEB 8.0 7.6 1 0.05 0.01 0.04 577 560 FRI 18Z 22-FEB 9.7 9.6 144 0.25 0.09 0.16 579 561 SAT 00Z 23-FEB 10.2 10.1 407 0.39 0.24 0.15 579 562 SAT 06Z 23-FEB 12.4 12.4 430 0.40 0.30 0.10 579 562 SAT 12Z 23-FEB 12.3 11.9 80 0.26 0.23 0.03 579 563 SAT 18Z 23-FEB 17.2 14.9 181 0.04 0.02 0.02 578 564 SUN 00Z 24-FEB 16.6 15.6 194 0.06 0.04 0.02 576 565 SUN 06Z 24-FEB 16.7 16.7 310 0.35 0.07 0.28 571 564 SUN 12Z 24-FEB 9.4 2.7 0 0.28 0.05 0.24 568 556 SUN 18Z 24-FEB 7.1 -7.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 565 547 MON 00Z 25-FEB 4.2 -7.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 547 MON 06Z 25-FEB 0.2 -7.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 567 546 MON 12Z 25-FEB -2.0 -8.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 567 546 MON 18Z 25-FEB 6.9 -8.8 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 568 546 TUE 00Z 26-FEB 5.7 -3.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 547 TUE 06Z 26-FEB 2.1 -4.5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 546 TUE 12Z 26-FEB -1.2 -6.4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 544
  6. jaxjagman

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of Feb 17th

    Hydrologic Outlook Hydrologic Outlook TNC003-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-043-049-055-061-081-083-085- 087-099-101-111-117-119-125-133-135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165- 169-175-177-181-185-187-189-172045- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 234 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 ...More heavy rain and flooding possible across Middle Tennessee next week... A very active weather pattern is expected to continue affecting Middle Tennessee through next week into the following weekend, with frequent storm systems bringing rain almost every single day. The next round of rain will arrive tonight and continue into Sunday night. After another brief drying out on Monday, particularly heavy rain is forecast from Tuesday through Thursday of next week, and even more heavy rain is possible next weekend. Although the forecast remains uncertain on which parts of Middle Tennessee may see the heaviest rainfall next week, current indications are that total rainfall amounts could reach anywhere from 3 inches northwest to 9 inches southeast. Due to the frequent and well-above normal rainfall that has already fallen across Middle Tennessee this month, grounds are saturated and many rivers, creeks and streams are already running high. The forecast heavy rainfall over the next week has the potential to cause significant flooding along area rivers, with flooding of some area roadways, low lying areas, and other poor drainage locations also possible. Residents across Middle Tennessee should continue to closely monitor the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding next week. For the latest forecast updates and river forecasts, visit our website at weather.gov/nashville.
  7. jaxjagman

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

    Early season i agree.Some chance of thunderstorms next week as a WF lifts into the lower OV putting the Valley in the warm sector,then a CF comes through.CIPS and even the dashboard hints at thunderstorms.Wouldn't mind tho seeing a good light show at night time
  8. jaxjagman

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    This would really annoy me this winter as i've been hoping for a bowling ball coming off this west coast,and here tonight's Euro shows this as it closes off south of the four corners and boogies right into the Tn Valley:(
  9. jaxjagman

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    GFS is still [email protected] Wed the cold front is sweeping through,it doesnt really show the WF getting past N/AL while the Euro is showing this into Ky
  10. jaxjagman

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    No, you're right that this more west based .The seasonals totally whiffed though seemingly,this was suppose to be central.east based Nino,never happened.
  11. jaxjagman

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    The Euro is slower than the GFS..It really pumps up the LLJ during Tues evening into Wed morn as it shows the warm front lifting into the lower OV.With this it even has capes 500+ with plenty of shear to work with into the Valley.The Euro has some large hodos into Nashville.Wouldn't be surprising to to see a quick spinner somewhere in the Valley . also plenty of KI and showalter right now for thunderstorms,as to how clouds and rain effects things is another thing.The other concern will be with the Euro as the LLJ strenghtens into the Valley and lower OV will be some potential wind gust with already a saturated ground could cause tree damage
  12. jaxjagman

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    Back in 1984 we had a SSWE almost the same exact date as this date as this one,Dec 31st this was in a weak LaNina,the following month in Jan 1985 Nashville hit it's all time record low of -17..This year we are in a ElNino.Shows you Mother Nature don't play nice with SSWE's.This season should also show you not all Modoki's mean cold weather
  13. jaxjagman

    ENSO 2018-2019

  14. jaxjagman

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    Looks like it will last a couple more weeks before finally weakening
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