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About jaxjagman

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  1. Gonna find a good pokemon stop and play while i wait
  2. Memphis Friday from what the NAM shows tonight
  3. The POAMA has backed down on Nino,by it's standards there won't be one this year.
  4. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active severe-weather regime in store for days 4-6 from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions, with models trending similar regarding evolution of the upper pattern during this period. Friday (day 4) - A lead shortwave trough will shift northeast through the OH Valley during the day with upstream height rises from the southern Plains into the TN Valley. Quasi-stationary front will reside from the TN valley into northern TX with a dryline evolving across west central or northwest TX where it will intersect the front. Limited synoptic forcing for ascent and capping due to eastward expansion of EML may limit thunderstorm initiation during the day with best chance being at the intersection of dryline and front over west-central or northwest TX. Large CAPE and strong vertical shear would favor a conditional risk for supercells with very large hail and a few tornadoes should such initiation occur. Farther east thunderstorms including supercells are more probable during the day near the warm front from the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley where the cap should be weaker. Other more numerous storms including supercells with large hail will occur overnight north of warm front over OK in association with strengthening LLJ. Saturday (day 5) - Current indications are the upper trough will amplify over the southern Rockies and continue east through the southern Plains accompanied by a strong cold front. Numerous severe storms are expected to develop along this boundary and progress east through TX and the lower MS Valley where the atmosphere will be strongly unstable. Sunday (Day 6) - As the trough and its associated cold front progress eastward, the severe-storm threat will spread into the TN Valley and southeast states where favorable vertical shear will coexist with a moderately unstable warm sector downstream from an ongoing MCS.
  5. Harpeth River is getting some more moderate rain.Good thing we dont seem to get any rain after this system gets by for a couple days Flood Advisory National Weather Service Nashville TN 939 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 ...The flood advisory continues for the Harpeth River... Harpeth River At Bellevue AFFECTING Davidson and Williamson Counties . Recent heavy rainfall has caused the Harpeth River at Bellevue to rise above action stage. Some additional light rainfall is expected today. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Stay tuned to noaa weather radio or other local media for further information from the National Weather Service. && TNC037-187-240239- /O.CON.KOHX.FL.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170424T0324Z/ /BELT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ 939 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 The Flood Advisory continues for The Harpeth River At Bellevue * Until this evening. * At 08AM Sunday the stage was 16.0 feet and cresting. * Flood stage is 20.0 feet. * The river will fall to near 11.4 feet by tomorrow morning. * At 20.0 feet...Water begins to flood the Ensworth High School athletic fields. * At 19.0 feet...Water floods Old Harding Pike near Morton Mill Road, and may be subject to closure. * At 18.0 feet...Water reaches the club house of the Harpeth Valley Golf Center. * At 16.0 feet...Portions of the Harpeth River Greenway may be covered with water and impassable, and the access road and the parking lot to the Harpeth River State Park are completely inundated. * At 14.0 feet...Portions of the Harpeth River Greenway begin to be inundated, and water begins to inundate the parking lot of the Harpeth River State Park at Highway 100.
  6. Decent chance of some severe storms in the western Valley Mid week.Believe though the best chance will come Friday when by the looks the boundary will stall out somewhere in the Valley and lift North into the lower OV.Some good instabilities being shown right now in the warm sector.Should be another severe potential when the front passes though maybe next Monday?
  7. The Braves suck so bad,If we could play SD everyday we would say,Championship !! But how bout those Preds?Woohoo
  8. Euro backed off the system today in Asia,which it was showing a system into the 2nd week of May possibly for us.Looks like right now if it don't change we should be looking at a ridge into the upper plains and OV ,GWO is now showing a almost -3.5 sigma in the long range,so a potential for some below seasonal temps looks possible into the 2nd wk of May
  9. But it's colder than *bleep*in most of NA
  10. Jamstec shows a modoki in the tri-monthlies,DJF.But with a a rather dry look.Guess you could say be careful when you wish for a modoki http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014019
  11. heh,i was thinking the same thing.A couple Stoves "Happy Waters",we're good to go.Should be able to turn the AC off and open the windows tonight.Dew point depressions we could even see some thick fog tonight and make it a London night
  12. Pattern looks the same upcoming into the 1st wk of May.Potential looks like some good rain and possibly some severe storms.Past this time frame looks like some changes upcoming.Like Carver mentioned on the weeklies, it don't look that bad,right now.GWO though is hinting at phase 2 with a -3 sigma,some strong signals of a ridge in the east upcoming.Sure looks like a potential warmth though into wk2 of May,Asia looks more zonal upcoming,less storms.Possibly tho this wont last long.Could see a return of a more wet pattern into wk 3 of May
  13. CPC which backed down on an Nino last update is back to almost 70% once again into ASO
  14. Maybe starting to weaken,huge tops on that cell still
  15. Even better hail marker,cell is getting stronger