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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. Subsurface is pretty cool.With a passing KW recently and another one being shown towards the end of the month, we should be back into NINA pretty soon.To soon to look at severe fall but seemingly it could be a active one,we'll see
  2. Areas around Tullahoma and Manchester has gotten around 10",about 6 " here so far,that is per RS estimation Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0995 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1146 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Areas affected...western/Middle Tennessee, northern Alabama, northern Mississippi Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 201545Z - 202200Z Summary...Flash flooding is likely today as slow-moving convection develops and moves over moist soils from prior rainfall. Discussion...A cluster of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms was observed over Middle Tennessee this morning. Meanwhile, additional showers and isolated thunderstorms were deepening to the south/southwest acrosss portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and western Tennessee. The environment supporting the ongoing convection was characterized by weak low-level confluence (southerly 850mb flow across Middle Tennessee and south-southwesterly 850mb flow across Mississippi), abundant moisture (near 2 inch PW values), and increasing surface-based instability (500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE - highest in Mississippi). Weak flow aloft was contributing to slow movement of ongoing convection, which was already resulting in a few areas of 1"/hr rainfall rates near the Nashville area. Three-hour rainfall totals around 2-3 inches have also been observed southwest of Nashville Metro. Although the ongoing convective cluster near Nashville may pose a few localized flash flood issues this morning, a higher flash-flood risk is possible later this afternoon as convective coverage increases in tandem with the peak diurnal cycle. Models and high-resolution guidance suggest that the greatest coverage of storms this afternoon will exist from northern Alabama into Middle Tennessee. These areas also have very low FFG values (generally less than 1.5"/hr thresholds, with spots as low as 0.5"/hr). These thresholds should easily be exceeded with convection this evening, especially given the slow storm motions and efficient rainfall production expected. Within the discussion area, the greatest likelihood of flash flooding will exist where FFGs are lowest (Middle Tennessee, Alabama, and far northwest Georgia). Farther west, flash flooding is still possible (Mississippi, western Tennessee) given the favorable atmospheric conditions, although FFGs are higher as this region hasn't experienced the heavier antecedent rainfall as areas farther east. Cook ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX... PAH... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...
  3. 16"+ by Gorman, the white shade,if its correct by all means
  4. Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 106 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 .UPDATE... FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Incredibly active flash flood situation ongoing for western portions of Middle Tennessee this morning where 8 to 12 inches of rain has been reported so far in locations in and around Houston, Humphreys, Dickson, and Hickman Counties. Some of the rainfall amounts that we`re seeing are a good 20%-25% of the TOTAL rainfall amounts we see in a year around here. MRMS radar estimates show a swath of 14 inches of rainfall with a few pixels of 17 inches. Even though this is likely an overestimation, it`s still quite impressive to see amounts that high since this morning. In the 4-5 years we`ve been using this radar rainfall estimation this product, we think this is the highest we`ve seen it as it`s maxed out the color scale. There`s no wonder we were able to get incredible rainfall rates/amounts this morning as the 12Z sounding from the office recorded Precipitable Water (PW) value of 2.37 inches which is well above the Daily Max of 2.21 inches for August 21st. The good news is...rainfall rates and amounts are on the downward trend finally which should help some of the hardest areas hit this morning. Flood waters should begin receding here soon especially those in Dickson and Houston Counties. However, still a dire/catastrophic situation ongoing in Humphreys and Hickman Counties!!! In addition, we are continuing to monitor the flash flood threat for Maury, Perry, and Lewis Counties as another 1-3 inches of rain will be possible in these counties. With that said, continued the Flash Flood Watch until 3pm. Off and on thunderstorms will be possible outside of the Flash Flood Watch too. Please stay tuned to any and all warnings and please do not travel into these hard hit flooded counties if you do not have to! Outside of the flood threat, we are monitoring the potential for a strong thunderstorm or two later this afternoon mainly across Southern Middle Tennessee. Although this threat seems rather secondary at the moment to the ongoing flash flooding. Stay safe out there everyone and help us remind everyone Turn Around Don`t Drown and Move to Higher Ground!
  5. No doubt !! Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 846 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 TNC043-081-083-085-211545- /O.CON.KOHX.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-210821T1545Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Dickson TN-Hickman TN-Houston TN-Humphreys TN- 846 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR HOUSTON, HUMPHREYS, HICKMAN, AND DICKSON COUNTIES... ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DICKSON, NORTHERN HICKMAN, HOUSTON AND NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES... At 846 AM CDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 11 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Houston, Humphreys, Hickman, and Dickson Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management reported. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Dickson, Waverly, Centerville, Erin, White Bluff, McEwen, Burns, Tennessee Ridge, Charlotte, Vanleer, Slayden, Pinewood, Nunnelly, Bon Aqua, Lyles, Primm Springs and Houston County Airport.
  6. Tornado Warning ALC083-190015- /O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0008.210818T2347Z-210819T0015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Huntsville AL 647 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Limestone County in north central Alabama... * Until 715 PM CDT * At 647 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Athens, moving east at 35 mph.
  7. No doubt,hardest i seen it rain this afternoon in quite some time,came down in sheets,just needed some convection
  8. Sorry to hear this,havent been on much lately.prayers to your wife for a full recovery
  9. If you start a thread you can moderate it and delete the whole thing,not sure that is what happened but seems possible.
  10. This is looking more and more like the 2010-212 resurgent NINA,just going back through the last 30 year cycle.We was really warm in the 2011-12 winter
  11. Chance for some strong storms tomorrow. National Weather Service Nashville TN 325 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 .DISCUSSION... Consensus blended model forecast used through Monday afternoon. Broke out a late afternoon zone grouping dealing with continued area of showers streaming northwest to southeast across western and southwestern portions of mid state region, This area is expected to shift southeastward as late afternoon hours progress and eventually move out of mid state region before the evening hours begin. Otherwise, not much overall change from previous forecast reasoning. The surface front that is hanging around mid state region will push northward as a warm front into Kentucky overnight. This will cause the mid state to experience much warmer and humid conditions on Sunday. From afternoon through evening hours on Sunday some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with strong to damaging winds the main concern. Best chance for strongest convection will be for locations approaching TN River Valley and southwest portions of mid state approaching TN/AL Border region. During this time period also, strong surface pressure gradient influences could cause winds to gust to 25 to 35 MPH at times. Taking a closer look, by the afternoon hours on Sunday, mid state will begin to see some surface instability (>1000 J/kg) accompanied with decent shear and rather strong lapse rates. Instability does still appear to be a limiting factor, but it does look like mid state region will experience just enough instability to support development of some strong to severe thunderstorms. As mentioned above, damaging winds will be the primary concern, but large hail, and with model sounding PWAT`S approaching at or around 1.5 inches, heavy downpours causing localized flooding, especially across locations approaching TN River Valley and southwest portions of mid state region approaching TN/AL border could occur too. Isolated tornado formation certainly can not be ruled out either.
  12. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 452 PM CDT WED MAY 5 2021 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR MAY 4, 2021 SEVERE WEATHER EVENT... .SUMMARY...AT LEAST 11 EF-0 TORNADOES TOUCHED DOWN ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING, MAY 4TH, CAUSING MOSTLY TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE, MINOR ROOF DAMAGE, AND SEVERAL DESTROYED OUTBUILDINGS. NWS NASHVILLE WILL CONTINUE PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING REFINING DETAILS ON PATH LENGTH AND WIDTH, START/END LOCATIONS, AND TIMES. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS VERY PRELIMINARY AND WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY UPDATED. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THIS MAKES 16 TORNADOES TOTAL IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO FAR THIS YEAR (INCLUDING ONE EF-0 IN COFFEE COUNTY ON MAY 3RD, ONE EF-0 TORNADO IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY ON APRIL 8, AND AN EF-2/EF-1/EF-0 ON MARCH 25 IN WAYNE, RUTHERFORD, AND WILSON COUNTIES RESPECTIVELY). https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=LSR
  13. That town is a tornado magnet
  14. Maybe one fixing to pop around Rural Hill
  15. Could be a EF0 rain wrapped
  16. Miss tornado recycled,dont see a whole lot of rotation but it did a short while ago
  17. There is some weak rotation north of Aberdeen,starting up
  18. Crapped out as it got close to Alabama
  19. Looks like it might have just recycled and getting its act together again
  20. The strong EKW put a beating with the subsurface in the east,surface is still cool in 1.2.Seems to be signs of another KW towards the middle of May.Seemingly, this could really warm up the surface in the east,kinda like a 1-2 punch with the last EKW,but on the other hand the subsurface is still rather cool in 1.2,guess we will find out soon enough
  21. Yeah with the 3capes > 200,hard to disagree
  22. Shear still looks the question
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