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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. Ever since when you posted this the standing wave popped up west of the IDL along with the strong EWB.The ENSO isn't acting like a typical ENSO.Think if the SPV can stay weak along with a more Modoki look like APEC shows it might not be that bad of a winter and not be a debbie downer,see the next update or two.Subsurface for right now is down to -5C east of the IDL again.Still a pretty healthy NINA with all the fake jabs it's put out to switch out
  2. Parts of the NW Tn is in a extreme drought and around the Ozarks,rest of us is in a moderate.severe west of I-65 and in the south,just as bad around Chatty,Alabama/Tn line .We got some rain yesterday and early this morn but would have liked more.Boundary should lift northward around Sunday so maybe some training cells,anything is better than nothing.Brutal summer here and especially west of us
  3. Been spoiled the last couple years,we haven't seen a heat wave like this in quite awhile.Yard was beautiful a couple weeks ago, not no mo.After the CF passes this week end,looks the same next week.Weird to say enjoy the lower 90's for a couple days,go outside when you can..lol
  4. Pretty strong MJO signal into the early parts of June into the WH/Africa along with a CCKW,should be a good shot to see some TG flaring up into the GOM,Caribbean possibly ,during this time
  5. I'm gonna be disappointed if i can't see this tonight.Band of high clouds is moving in but should clear out ,but thunderstorms seems possible into the evening here.Maybe you guys in the east might have a better chance to see it. https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/nashville?iso=20220516
  6. About split in half into fall.Equatorial has been warming lately. Tidbits seems to be doing better with the east.Couple weeks ago it was way to warm in 1+2 compared to CPC
  7. Pretty boring severe season for us.Looks like it could get unsettled starting this weekend but other than that right now looks blah.CFS does have a Kelvin Wave moving through next week with troughs coming through East Asia along with the MJO could actually strenghten into the IO.Could see a bigger deal around next weekend
  8. Make sure you are signed into twiiter then right click and hit the copy video URL
  9. Best thunderstorm in awhile here in Brentwood right now.Even dropping some pea sized hail
  10. Mis South looks pretty juicy Wed afternoon.TT'S 57-58.Already a 30% hatch for tornadoes Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a large portion of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southeast on Wednesday. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Strong tornadoes may occur. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low will continue to eject eastward from the Plains across much of the MS Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday. A surface low is likewise expected to advance generally eastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward Wednesday across much of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast as well. ...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast... A substantial severe threat is evident for a large part of these regions ahead of the cold front. Pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the negatively tilted upper trough will likely overspread the warm sector through the day. 60s surface dewpoints will be present ahead of the front, with greater low-level moisture likely in place from the lower OH Valley/Mid-South into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Diurnal heating of this airmass and the continued presence of steepened lapse rates aloft should allow for moderate to strong instability to develop by Wednesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear generally in excess of 45-50 kt will support organized severe thunderstorms, and low-level shear is also forecast to be quite strong. Pre-frontal convection appears possible across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley vicinity through the day. If this occurs, then supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, would be likely. Linear convection is also expected to develop along much of the length of the front, and this activity will pose a threat for both damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes as it spreads eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening. Have opted to include a broad Enhanced Risk to account for numerous to potentially widespread damaging winds, and several tornadoes. The main uncertainty precluding greater severe probabilities at this time is the possible effect of early-day convection across the lower MS Valley/Mid-South on prospects for substantial destabilization later in the afternoon. Given the strong flow and sufficient instability forecast, at least an isolated severe threat should continue with eastward extent across the OH Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast Wednesday night. ..Gleason.. 04/11/2022
  11. Either they were caught off guard or they are just plain stupid
  12. Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...FAR WESTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST TN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts and tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. The greatest risk area will encompass portions of central/northern Alabama into southeast Tennessee, far western North Carolina/South Carolina and northern Georgia. ...Deep South to the Southern Appalachians... A closed upper low and its attendant trough will deep and shift east from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley on Wednesday. This will maintain deep-layer southwesterly flow across the Gulf Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a broad warm-advection regime ahead of the trough. A strong low-level jet around 40-50 kt will be somewhat more focused across parts of MS/AL into the Carolinas ahead of a strong surface cold front. This surface front is forecast to extend roughly from southeast MO into east-central TX Wednesday morning, while a warm front extends from the southern TN border into Upstate SC. The warm front should lift north into NC and possibly southern VA late in the period while the cold front sweeps eastward across the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast. A seasonally moist boundary layer will exist ahead of the surging cold front, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s across much of the southern/southeastern U.S. This will aid in moderate destabilization of a strongly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow largely parallel to the surface cold front will support linear convection, with another QLCS sweeping east across the southern U.S. likely. A swath of damaging gusts will accompany organized convection through the daytime across parts of MS/AL/TN/GA and into the southern Appalachians, the Carolinas and southern GA/northern FL during the evening/overnight. While damaging gusts appear the most likely hazard at this time, tornado potential will exist as well, both within the QLCS/mesovortices and in any semi-discrete convection should it develop ahead of the line. ..Leitman.. 04/04/2022
  13. Wed looks better,not sure what kind of moisture we get.Euro shows some VBV,see what happens the next model runs
  14. My trash can started to tumble down the road about a hour ago,sure hope we keep power
  15. Usually ours come in the form of smaller clusters or MCS,like you mentiomed.
  16. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...EASTERN ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. All severe hazards are possible, including widespread damaging winds, some over 75 mph, and several tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will eject from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS Valley on Wednesday while acquiring a negative tilt. An 80-100+ kt south-southwesterly mid-level jet will accompany the shortwave trough passage. Low-level southerly flow is also expected to be very strong, with 50-70+ kt winds forecast at 850 mb. The primary surface low should be located over IA at the start of the period, with a cold front extending southward from this low across the central/southern Plains. A secondary surface low in closer proximity to the shortwave trough is forecast to develop from eastern OK to the Mid-South vicinity by Wednesday evening. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are expected to return northward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the secondary surface low, with the surface warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with northward extent into the mid MS and OH Valleys. With strong forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector through the day, thunderstorms will develop and move east-northeastward ahead of the cold front while posing a threat for both widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A line of convection aided by strong low-level warm advection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the Ozarks southward across AR to east TX. This activity should continue to pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds and tornadoes as it moves eastward Wednesday morning. Fairly widespread cloud cover ahead of the line and modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of destabilization to some extent. Still, the increasing low-level moisture in tandem with filtered diurnal heating are expected to aid in sufficient boundary-layer destabilization to support surface-based storms. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should develop ahead of the line across LA into MS and surrounding areas by early Wednesday afternoon. This QLCS should strengthen Wednesday afternoon as it moves across northeastern LA, eastern AR, southeastern MO, and into much of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Aided by strengthening low/mid-level flow, increasing low-level and deep-layer shear will both become very strong, supporting updraft organization. With a primarily linear storm mode expected, widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely. The presence of a 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and even stronger flow up to 75 kt at 700 mb, should enhance the prospects for significant severe wind gusts of 75+ mph at the surface within the most intense portions of the line Wednesday afternoon and evening. Very favorable low-level shear and elongated/sickle-shaped hodographs in the boundary layer will likely also support low-level rotation with embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS. Several tornadoes should occur across the lower MS Valley and Southeast in this regime, with circulations moving quickly east-northeastward. The potential for supercells to develop ahead of the line, or perhaps embedded within the line with southward extent, remains unclear. Any cells that can form ahead of the line would be favored to produce tornadoes, but the quick eastward progression of the QCLS may limit this possibility. Still, some guidance suggests the southern part of the line may become more broken with time Wednesday afternoon/evening. If this occurs, then a threat for embedded supercells capable of producing multiple strong (EF2+) tornadoes would exist. At this point, the greatest tornado potential may focus along southern portions of the line in MS/AL where a semi-discrete mode seems more plausible. Regardless, a continued threat for both damaging winds and tornadoes will likely persist Wednesday evening and overnight as convection spreads from the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Deep South. Thunderstorms should eventually weaken with eastward extent early Thursday morning as they outpace the low-level moisture return and encounter a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... Less low-level moisture and weaker instability are forecast across the mid MS Valley and OH Valley compared to locations farther south. However, enough boundary-layer instability should be present for the line of storms to produce scattered to perhaps numerous damaging winds as it moves eastward given the strength of the low-level flow. A few tornadoes may also occur with favorable low-level shear also present. The lack of stronger instability precludes greater severe probabilities across this region at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/29/2022
  17. STJ kicks in Wed.,system is more progressive than what the models showed in the past.No problem it seems with wind shear and helicity.See what the models shou the next few runs.Looks more diurnal driven either way for us with a wind advisory Wed
  18. MJO and KW shouldn't have a problem upwelling those warm SST'S just beneath the surface.Should see a decent spike and warming in 1+2 upcoming the next few days.Guess the question would be is what happens afterwards?Certainly thought Nina was on life support several weeks ago
  19. Yeah have to wait a couple days and see what kind of instability we get.Wind shear turns SW on Wed and a decent LLJ showing especially by the Euro.It's still 5-6 days away so much can change
  20. Nina is hanging tough.2012 was looking like a good analog year but not so much now,Equatorial ocean heat temp anoms which rose to positive have gone negative once again the last few days.So it's acting more like a resurgent NINA.2012 on March 15th set many records and the month of March set many more with a +AO/NAO
  21. Not really sure how much we got.The winds seemed to blow the snow around off roofs,trees,etc.,etc. ...TENNESSEE... LA FOLLETTE 10.6 ARTHUR 10.0 CARYVILLE 8.0 HOWARD QUARTER 3 WNW 7.5 KINGSTON 6.0 KNOXVILLE 4 ENE 6.0 GERMANTOWN 3 NNW 5.5 ARLINGTON 5.0 FRANKLIN 4 W 5.0 MADISONVILLE 5.0 NASHVILLE 5.0 MIDTOWN MEMPHIS 4.8 LUTTRELL 4.5 MEMPHIS 4.0 PULASKI 4.0 SODDY-DAISY 7 NW 4.0 FAUST 5 NNE 3.8 WATERVILLE 1 NNE 3.0 The rapidly intensifying low is forecast to quickly lift into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. An additional 2 to local 4 inches of snowfall is anticipated from New England through the interior Northeast, before the snow activity wanes tomorrow morning. In the wake of the strong front, record breaking low temperatures are expected over the Southeast tonight, before the airmass moderates to begin the work week. The next Storm Summary will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center at 1000 AM EST. Please refer to your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this event. Asherman https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html?fbclid=IwAR1Od607PslFpgWF6QqhyYa7LWJ-GqDZmQupGFPTJrK9BXS6L3UC5cRaXWU
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