jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion Last Updated: 05.26.20 Valid: 05.27.20 - 06.09.20 While an active intraseasonal signal is still present in the CPC velocity potential based MJO index as well as the RMM-based MJO index, the overall pattern has become increasingly incoherent over the past several days. The amplitude of the enhanced convective envelope in particular has decreased as a Kelvin wave propagated across the Pacific, well ahead of the rest of the signal. Despite the regime of enhanced trade winds across much of the Pacific basin, the Kelvin wave appears to be convectively coupled with the North Pacific ITCZ, and a zonally narrow band of anomalous westerlies is present south of Mexico. Dynamical model MJO index forecasts track this Kelvin wave better than any other coherent feature, with most model forecasts showing the signal returning to the Indian Ocean towards the end of Week-2 or weakening. Based on these recent observations and forecasts, a canonical MJO evolution from the Maritime Continent to the Pacific is not anticipated, but the Kelvin wave is likely to influence the tropical convective pattern, particularly across the Western Hemisphere. Cyclone Amphan made landfall over West Bengal on 20 May at Category-2 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, causing considerable damage across northeastern India and Bangladesh. This single tropical cyclone generated more than double the climatological accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) observed over the North Indian Ocean basin during the entire Spring season. On 21 May, Tropical Storm Mangga formed over the South Indian Ocean. Following extratropical transition and merging with a cold front, the remnants of TS Mangga generated widespread wind damage across Western Australia. During Week-1, as the Kelvin wave crosses the East Pacific and with upper-level high pressure already in place, conditions will become increasingly favorable for tropical cyclone formation over the East Pacific basin. The NHC is monitoring an area just south of Mexico and Guatemala, and forecasts a 70-percent chance of a tropical depression forming in this region over the next 5 days. More GEFS ensemble members depict tropical cyclone activity at days 5-8 than days 1-4; therefore, there is high confidence for tropical cyclogenesis in this region during the Week-1 period. As the Kelvin wave progresses eastward, the favorable area is anticipated to expand to include the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. Numerous GEFS ensemble members depict the formation of a tropical cyclone in this region, with a clustering of tracks bringing the potential cyclone towards the Florida peninsula, the northern Gulf Coast, or as far east as central Cuba and the Bahamas. There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding this forecast, and interests in the southeastern US, Mexico, and the western Caribbean should monitor the latest forecasts. A moderate potential for tropical cyclone formation is forecast for the Week-2 period extending from the East Pacific south of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche, southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and the far northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, dynamical models show a moderate potential for a disturbance west of India to become a tropical cyclone as it moves slowly northward across the Arabian Sea. Several GEFS ensemble members depict a second tropical cyclone formation near Oman; however, confidence is too low at this time to include a second Arabian Sea formation hazard on the outlook. Given the increasingly incoherent presentation of the intraseasonal signal, the forecasts for above- and below- normal precipitation are based on a consensus of bias-corrected CFS and ECMWF guidance, and potential tropical cyclone activity discussed above. Suppressed rainfall is favored across southeast Asia, the northwestern Pacific basin, and the equatorial central Atlantic during Week-1, while the central Maritime Continent and the East Pacific and western Atlantic basins are favored to be active. A disturbance near the US Southeast coastline may bring heavy rainfall to the Carolinas early in the period. A heat wave is ongoing across much of India, and is favored to continue early in the Week-1 period. Excessive heat is also likely across the US Southwest. During Week-2, suppressed rainfall is favored to continue over the northwestern Pacific region, while a moderate potential for enhanced rainfall shifts eastward across the Maritime Continent and the South Pacific, including American Samoa. An area of enhanced rainfall is possible over the western Indian Ocean north of Madagascar as the Kelvin wave returns to the Indian Ocean. While excessive heat is favored to diminish over India, a period of hot weather is possible across parts of Southeast Asia.
  2. Seemingly there also looks to be a trough going through East Asia towards the end of the month,maybe something to watch as it could bring a CF toward the end of wk 1 of June in the east and also more trough in the NE,this could dampen out any TG expectations into the GOM
  3. There were a couple ensemble members of the GEFS 18Z which could lead into some TG into the GOM into June,to early to tell right now tho
  4. Depending on what the ENSO does right now ,seems possible we could be headed towards a +TNI next spring,which we haven't seen since 2017.Think we'll explore this to start another severe thread into winter,this one is getting long https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008/pdf
  5. That was a bad boy https://twitter.com/Fox4Weather/status/1264025552278769665/photo/1 https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/1264566026227892224/photo/2
  6. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    Thanks I saw his post this morning https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264525706215796736/photo/1
  7. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    Just food for thought,every single year the DMI dips below -0.8 there has always been some sort of a resurgent Nina the following winter.The most -ve was in Sept of 2016 where it hit -1.441.Some models show this potential especially the Euro
  8. GFS would have some potential for some TG into the GOM with the GYRE,Euro not as promising
  9. XFINITY GOT knocked out again thanks to a thunderstorm :(Thank goodness for Verizon2GO,its getting annoying tho
  10. CFS has been consistent with a Kelvin Wave and the MJO with it slowing down into the NH with the CHI posted above.This KW could spawn up some TG along the western flank if it's to be right into the first week of June,i'd keep watching along the Yucatan still upcoming
  11. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    KW moving across the IDL.There is some differences of how strong the KW will be.The MJO tho looks as if it will slow down as it get into the NH in a few days,should either way put a hit on subsurface east of the IDL
  12. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    Sorry to hear of the no trip,i know you look forward to this every year :( Its been a suck year so far for us here as well.Kids out of school(tho i think some kids might be happy about that..lol)No real graduation this year. My wife also is going through breast cancer and doing chemo right now,not a great time for this with the CV :( Just saying also,its never a good time for breast cancer either way.Praying we make it through this anyways
  13. pretty pathetic right now,but some convection is showing up east of the circulation Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Arthur's appearance in radar and satellite imagery has degraded significantly since the previous advisory with very little convective banding features present now. However, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone late this afternoon and early has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 46 kt in the eastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface wind speeds of 36-38 kt, plus a central pressure of 1003 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt for this advisory since higher wind speeds could be present within areas of convection north of the center that were not sampled. Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Arthur has continued to move north-northeastward or 020/09 kt. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward on Monday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and frontal system, and remain just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. By Tuesday night, Arthur will be entering the strong mid-latitude Westerlies, which will steer cyclone eastward and also induce extratropical transition when the cyclone merges with the aforementioned frontal system. The new NHC track guidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant cross-track changes were required. However, some slight changes to the forward were required on days 2 and 3, and the new NHC track forecast now shows Arthur moving a little faster to the east and southeast on those days. Arthur is currently moving over the warmest waters in the Gulfstream where ocean temperatures are 26-26.5 deg C. However, some mid-level shear undercutting the otherwise upper-level outflow pattern, coupled with the entrainment of dry mid-level air has disrupted the overall convective pattern. These unfavorable conditions should continue for the next coupe of days, with only intermittent bursts of deep convection occuring near the center until Arthur passes northeast of the Outer Banks by late Monday. Thereafter, baroclinic effects along with extratropical transition are expected to cause some further strengthening before weakening begins late Tuesday and on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast follows a blend of the intensity consensus model IVCN, and the GFS and ECMWF model forecasts.
  14. Yeah,odds of getting a TC this time off year are rare anyways
  15. Still looks more disorganized this early evening and its more than likely getting dry air entrained on the southern flank
  16. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    Looks like NINA rang the door bell and someone let her in
  17. Looks kinda ragged right now with very little convection wrappping around
  18. Tropical genesis is hard to predict without a storm,it's just a time frame to watch right now possibly
  19. 3.4 is falling fast .The MJO by the Euro is going to get strong into P8 and with possible KW and RW towards the end of the month,this should continue to pound the cold subsurface to the surface east of the IDL.Not sure i agree with the new experimental JAMSTEC with the oceans into summer.If its right tho towards fall we would be looking at a -PDO and also the NA/Tripole would really cool down into into fall so you'd have a +NOA into winter more likely,maybe some help with the EPO but JAMSTEC looks like crap next winter right now,
  20. Still looks like towards June should be another time frame to keep an eye on as a KW possibly moves into the GOM along with the MJO starting to strenghten in P8 by the Euro towards the end of the month,just my hunch and no forecast
  21. BULLETIN Tropical Depression One Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 78.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * New River Inlet to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion should continue during the next day or so. After that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move offshore, but parallel to, the coast of Florida tonight, and then move near or east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations and earlier aircraft reconnaissance data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
  22. Advisories going up at 5pm per NHC