jaxjagman

For a Nina pattern the Gulf of Mexico has been dormant,other than TS Barry hitting the Bay of Campeche in late June there has been notta,that hasnt happened since 1991,You'd think we'd have an active S/Jet this winter,severe/cold,who knows

Seen that also today https://www.facebook.com/ChrisJustusWYFF4ChiefMeteorologist/posts/️-attention-snow-lovers-️the-european-seasonal-snow-forecast-is-out-and-while-we/1343397287154418/

PDO finally rose some what last month,it was the most negative this summer in July and August since 1854,record breaking months anyways,hopefully the shutdown dont last long so we can see the next update sooner than later https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

So many objectives to play with this winter.I keep seeing social media seemingly saying this is a slam dunk of 2010-2011,why? I mean you do have the early Siberian snowfall going into Oct which is a plus,BUT at the same time in 2010,had seemingly a strong westerly +QBO,in which would keep possibly the PV strong its what we seen last winter In California which is even more unusual during a Nina had record rainfall in Dec of 2010.Even the -NAO,wemt on record of being the strongest ever recorded since 1825 ?Not sure how records were recorded back then,im not that old..lol

Not really sure how anyone can really come up with a real good analog for this winter anymore.Like Carver mentioned above we have a easterly QBO unlike last year it was more westerly.The SST'S in East Asia are so warm into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan,and in August resulted in the warmest month of August ever in South Korea and Japan,it was the hottest in Japan ever since records were taken back into 1898

I dunno,dont shoot the messenger,but it seems to be more related to the ENSO,IN 1980 our subforum into NC and the east coast would be saying bring it on,maybe a coincidence,i have know clue,planetary waves can take weeks if not months to have effects in NA, but both of these years i stated above seem to be more of developing ELNino,not NINA with a SWE in the SP https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview

Think more study should be looked at.SSWE are rare to start with in the SP,since last year there never has been one since 2002,its even more rare last year there were two.But there is also seemingly some correlation with ELNino and LaNIna,in 1979 and the last SSWE in 2002,these were ELNINO years,.2003 winter had the great blizzard in the Mid Atlantic/NE,late JanBut i still think these planetary waves,Rossby,etc,etc in the NP would be hard to predict from what happens in the SP

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL115257 There were a couple last year,but i have no clue how it effects planetary waves between the NP and SP,that would be a question for our scientist

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt Enso is about similar this year as it was last year,to this date anyways

First time ive heard of this folklore,Its the talk of some people in Lawrence Co.They got 2-spoons and of knife How to make a persimmon seed prediction Split the seed: Carefully cut the seed in half lengthwise with a sharp knife. Observe the shape: Look for one of three symbols within the seed's white inner structure (cotyledon): Fork: Indicates a mild winter. Spoon: Signifies a lot of snow that will require a shovel. Knife: Suggests a cold, harsh winter with biting winds. Find a ripe persimmon: The fruit should be soft and wrinkled when ready. Extract the seeds: Wash the seeds to remove any pulp.

To bad this is CANSIPS this far out,its actually similar to last year to an extent anyways,but this would be nice with an active jet tapping into the GOM,with a -NAO with that Aluetian LOW

Some intense convection in SW TN earlier,seen this on GOES

This is priceless, says every Auburn fan out there

Its still a crap shoot trying to predict the winter.In 1996-97 East Asia was cold and so were we.In 2016-17 winter East Asia was warm and so were we,so you have to see whats actually driving the pattern but otherwise both of these winters i shown were in a NINA pattern,i still believe it could be like last winter,but i can also see what Carver said a few weeks ago being right.This pic i posted with the arrow in the negative IOD which is by contrast was in mid July was -1.5 in 2016,so your extreme negative IOD isnt the total driver. It fascinates me tho about the IOD.When ever you have an an extreme +IOD,in general it leads into a decent NINO the following year but when you have a strong -IOD like now, NINA continues but in case like 1997 evolved into a strong NINO,but in 2017 it was like a resurrgent NINA.oh well,i can get intrigued by strange shit..lol

This could be the most negative -IOD We've seen since the early 1980'S.Back into 1996 it dopped to -1.192 on 10-16-96 per JAMSTEC, per the BOM it recently dropped to negative 1.2 I couldnt resist to play around and check out AI on google the winter of 1996-97 in our parts,just take it as a grain of salt,surely dont mean we will repeat AI Overview The 1996-97 winter in Tennessee was marked by a long period of cold and snowy conditions, with some records set for the season, including a major spring snowstorm in March 1997 that added to an already harsh winter, though it was not a particularly severe event in the context of Tennessee history compared to other major events. Records for the winter season were set in other parts of the country, but for the Nashville area, the 1996-97 winter was described as long and harsh. Key characteristics of the 1996-97 winter in Tennessee: Long Duration of Cold: The winter started with cold conditions, and many areas saw snow accumulate starting in November, with the ground remaining covered under snow through February. Spring Snowstorm: A significant storm in March 1997 brought more snow to the region, adding to the heavy accumulation from the winter, which was a long and harsh winter for the region. Overall Severity: The winter of 1996-97 was considered a harsh one, with some areas experiencing extreme winter conditions.

I still believe this winter will be kinda similiar to last winter.It should start out warm and wet as the potential for a -IOD as we get into severe fall,early winter.The MJO right now is fixing to creep along the IO the next several days with a potential strong EWB,this abide should strengten NINA upcoming.Our severe season last year was headed into a top record breaking season until that strong Bearing Sea blocking took shape into early spring,this caused the jet to go further north and brought more severe into the OV

I saw this on the news last evening around yalls parts,that was crazy

Sorry to hear this.My prayers are with you and fam,i'm sure this forum will miss him for quite a long time

Like to find the weather charts and see this On June 28, 1928...A severe weather outbreak produces 5 tornadoes across Middle Tennessee, beginning on the afternoon of the 28th, and continuing into the next morning. All tornadoes are classified as F2. One person is killed in Davidson County. Another 38 injuries are reported overall.

Pattern what CANSIPS is showing right now looks maybe similar to last winter.More NINA, weak NINA.I'm surprised it didnt show more blocking into the Hudson with the blocking its showing into around the four corners,but it still looks like a -NAO.Jan would seemingly right now be BN with the blocking its showing into the Western AK/.Bering Sea.Into Feb this blocking shifts into the Bering Sea,this seemingly could bring a early severe threat Think myself the warm SST'S into the Yellow Sea into the Sea of Japan and off the east coast of Japan are unprecedented to rely on analogs.I mean the warmest SST'S in this region was in 2023 during a strong NINO

No clue what happened here other than hail and wind,i thought some of the cells should have been tor warned sooner and a couple that should have been warned that wasnt,but thats just me.I know there was some large hail over 2" in Franklin and other places as well,we just got wind here,i didnt see no hail.I thought Morristown was suppose to do our weather here basically,sure they were busy also.

More than likely because they are updating AWIPS this week and couldnt reschedule.They gave the public advance notice because some things might be down at times along with NOAA radio the next few days

Some big hail ,the Centerville cell

Confirmed Tor headed towards maybe Duck River

Confirmed Tor headed towards maybe Duck River