jaxjagman

.SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Record highs are possible today as a strong ridge axis extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest builds eastward across Tennessee. Highs yesterday climbed well above all guidance values. The warming and enhanced wind gusts occurred as full sunshine and dry air allowed very deep vertical mixing. Mixing may not be quite as strong today, but we should still meet or exceed yesterday`s highs. Wind speeds will be much lower today as the high pressure builds across the area. BNA climate data for today: Normal high 73 Forecast 87 Record 87 from 1936 BNA climate data for Tuesday: Normal high 73 Forecast 87 Record 88 from 1955 The warm conditions will continue tonight and Tuesday under the strong ridge. Winds will pick up again Tuesday, with gusts as high as 30 mph in the afternoon.

Maybe starting to recycle

Moving fast,looks like maybe south of Pioneer

see it wiped out a funeral home of all places

Says thats a confirmed tornado

Cells seem to be moving pretty quick now than earlier

Some decent rotation starting to show west of Fairview

Big tornado

Nice thunderstorm,power got knocked off for a few min,wish it was at night,some intense lightning

RAP and HRR shows more that will develop later on so we'll see

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 75 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Kentucky Western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 950 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A loose cluster of storms in western Tennessee is expected to evolve into a couple of supercells while spreading east-northeastward toward southern Kentucky and middle Tennessee through midday and early afternoon. The environment ahead of the storms will be favorable for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong (roughly EF2), as well as damaging gusts up to 75 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Jackson TN to 45 miles north of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

Neither has much rotation right now

The thunderstorm cell looks more impressive than the tornado cell in SW TN

HRR last couple runs keeps honing in on the TN/KY line for some possible strong tornadoes mid afternoon

Sound like winds and if cells can remain broken tornadoes possibly

Just start another severe thread,this one is 3 years old,bout time to start a new one

Still top analog is Mid April 1998 by the NAM 12z today,Disco from Nahshville LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 The main concern in the extended forecast continues to be on Tuesday with the expectation of some severe storms. A wave of energy within a larger positively-tilted, broad trough will eject out of the SW CONUS on Monday with a surface low developing in response. The surface low will move from the Ozarks into the Midwest and deepen as Tuesday progresses. Storms could be ongoing early Tuesday morning to our north and west. A couple of the CAMS including the HRRR have some activity leaking into our northwest around dawn. There could be enough instability in place where a severe storm cannot be ruled out. The main show continues to appear to be in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Models continue to show surface CAPE values between 500 to close to 900 J/kg during the afternoon. Models are suggesting storms will develop ahead of the front over the western third of the CWA and move eastward as the afternoon and evening progresses. 0-500mb bulk shear will be ample to support organized updrafts with values greater than 60 kts. 0-1 km SRH values could be between 200-250 m2/s2 over the eastern half of the area Tuesday afternoon. Storm modes may be a mix bag of clusters, supercells, or line segments. Given all of that damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all look possible. The severe storm window should end between 00z and 03z Wednesday.

Good luck to the Vols today.

April 16,1998 top analog by the NAM,don't mean we'll see a repeat,could even change from the next few runs ,just saying.

Still think this is very similar to what happened in 1997-98 NINO/NINA.The surface is warming right now thanks to a WWB,during this time the subsurface along the IDL and even west got to around -3C into April,the CCKW into May along with the MJO made a quick dismise of NINO

More or less a couple systems the warm sector has had a decent capping inversion for us. Tuesday like you mentioned is timing.If the Euro is right we'd have some broken cells into Tn by the cams,more severe.

Gray Ratsnakes are pretty common in Tn