jaxjagman

Think myself its to fast myself right now

I like what the EPS shows right now but this could still change by then.Right now its showing a trough in East China then Yellow Sea , Koreas with a ridge around Japan around Mrch 4-5,this could be severe around March 11-12..JMO

Actually even if you look at the Euro this afternoon there is height rises in the east and a trough out west

I duuno,you could be right but for once i'd agree with the GFS against the ensembles

Timmer is all in for dixie severe\

Its hard to trust the NAO at this point,but i'm starting to believe this cold after the severe threat(if its even severe) is short lived and should have another shot at severe a few days after.I dont really trust the Euro as we get into the 2nd week of March,i dont beieve there should be falling heights in the east it seemingly should be rising heights.I do agree with the severe threat mid month,the dashboard right now is showing a multi day severe event seemingly right now starting March 15

Yall have the talent to go far in the dance,polls to me dont mean much,its March that counts

It hasnt been horrible for cold,snow was meh here.,believe we got close to avg or probably slighty below,no big snow storms.If you like cold this seemingly was one of the coldest we've seen in several years.yeah we got warm for a spell but everyone should expect some moderation in winter,we live in the south

I'd personally would stick with the JMA right now with the MJO.Some of the RMM'S are killing the MJO signal at least right now where it seems to be is from the Rossby wave train where it strenghtens the WWB,it should still be progressive,this is causing constructive interference with the MJO signal,even the majority of the Euro members shows this,the MJO should be progressive

Still think we have a chance of severe after Met winter,seems like it could turn cold again right now shortly after.The next couple days there will be a trough going through East China and the Koreas with rising heights off east Japan,this should be a cold front around the 4th or 5th or a trough in the Plains/east. Right now the models are showing the East Asia jet retraction should be underway during this time.As we get around Met spring the MJO seemingly right now will strenghten as we get into Met spring into Africa and the Western IO as it moves towards the Maritime,this should also strenghten NINA once again in the upcoming couple weeks

Switched to Memphis radar and it does look warm nose could change it over later,dunno right now its not

My radar shows it all snow down to the TN/AL line and they got some decent returns,models didnt show them getting much of anything that i recall

That band should start to explode the one that just left Nashville,its headed towards the Cumberland

Decent shower now

Took it awhile,should start picking up any min https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player.php?alias=brentwood201173a

Should finally be snowing here in a few min,some 30dbz is knocking on the door if it holds

Got a virga storm here

Try his blogs https://x.com/Daniel_Bonds

Rossby Wave is fixing to cause chaos with the RMMS signal the next few days.

I was thinking the same but more north of 1-40,theyve had quite a winter from snow,flooding and severe

https://www.weather.gov/media/meg/WinterStormCriteriaMEG.pdf they must be pretty damn confident..lol

WSW in general go out 12-36 hours this is like 72 hrs..lol

Actually strange they'd do this so early,its not the criteria of WSW

But basically every long range model is showing severe so we will see

Think the next chance of severe should come right after Met spring starts.Euro shows a ridge building on top of Japan which should be a ridge in the NE and heights falling from a trough into Mongolia which should/could be a -PNA