jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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I agree,still should potentially be looking at a active period upcoming.MJO is fixing to have destructive interference with the signal into the the IO/Maritime quite a few RMMM's take it into the COD just past Mid March , but seemingly right now could eject fast into the WH,least both the CFS and Euro are showing this which would be as we get into the later part of April quite interesting
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Possibly a more wide spread threat towards and into next weekemd
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The ENSO thread on the main page has become an IMBY thread,it use to be a functional thread or somewhat at one time,its annoying to me now to even look at,just saying.You should see as the MJO stalls out into the IO or progressive slowly,this should strenghten NINA into the upcoming weeks
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Like to see what the JMA shows the next few days,These ERW'S are much slower than Kelvin,i think the Euro mean this afternoon is right to a certain extent but ,i really believe the MJO signal should stay into the IO past mid March and longer,really think its gonna be a active pattern we start to see,like Jeff said in the spring thread,buckle up !!
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Think we are fixing to get into a real active pattern as we get into Mid March,the Euro mean has been showing this the last couple days the MJO should stall out as its in Africa/Western IO for a few days basically from a ERW,it should eject into the IO days after,you should be seeing these more amplified troughs progress into East Asia like the Euro is showing as the MJO chugs along towards the Maritime.JMHO and not a forecast
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We'll see if anything mischievous happens happens during this time
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You must have been close to my house,what part of Brentwood was this?
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Just to clarify myself,i do agree with you in Tn
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Could be right,climo alot of Tn is around mid March,but in occasion this time of year you can still get one.I know we did get a tornado in the first of March of 2017,but Vortex is in Ms., its climo for them
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I dunno,its still 4 days out you still will see changes i believe.Its getting into NAM now but i wouldnt trust it 84 HRS out, but sometimes it does pull a rabbit out of its hat..lol.
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Believe myself, but what is happening in east Australia it seems these tropical systems are from CCKW'S,out into the IO is seemingly is a ERW. moving through the IO,this seemingly will stall out the MJO signal into Africa,Western IO upcoming https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-pacific-tropical-cyclones-rae-seru-alfred-unusual/
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Still think the next chance of severe should come into wk 2 of March.Euro is showing a trough into East China /Yellow Sea with a ridge over Japan.IMO this could be a trough in the plains with a ridge in the east.Still should be around the 11-12th
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Pretty impressive dynamical system right now being shown by the Euro this afternoon what ever happens, on the time stamp on the pic the pressure drops to 979MB
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Actually most of the models show the potential of the MJO to stall out in either Africa.Western IO today
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I like what the JMA is showing.There is a ERW in the eastern IO today and should progress into the Western IO/Africa and slow the signal down and potentially stall it out for a brief time
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Dunno this far out but this still to me anyways should be around the time for the next chance of severe after the one upcoming
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The Euro the reflective maps shows a possibility of some discrete storms ahead of that line in your parts,but that far out we know that drill ...lol
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Into March the MJO the models want to mute the signal from Rossby Waves once again,it still should be relevant and not go into the COD as fast as most are showing
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Think myself its to fast myself right now
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I like what the EPS shows right now but this could still change by then.Right now its showing a trough in East China then Yellow Sea , Koreas with a ridge around Japan around Mrch 4-5,this could be severe around March 11-12..JMO
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Actually even if you look at the Euro this afternoon there is height rises in the east and a trough out west
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I duuno,you could be right but for once i'd agree with the GFS against the ensembles
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Timmer is all in for dixie severe\
