jaxjagman

SPC extended the slight risk into Mid Tn,latest RAP/ HRRR now shows DP'S getting into the lower 60's with plenty of instability,looks mostly wind/hail but i wouldnt be surprised to see a tor warned cell or two into the early evening,i'm hoping for a good light show either way

I dunno,we will see but by the latest models i really think the severe risk will be more further east than whats showing right now and it could also be hydro problem for someone right now just as well,but its still far out The MJO is fixing to have the next several days destructive interference more than likely it seems from Kelvin and Rossby waves in the upcoming days,it seemingly should go into the COD and into the WH more faster than being shown by some RMMM'S

That ridge building into the Bearing Sea/Aleutians by all the models by mid next week will get us into a active pattern towards the end of March for several days.I believe the focus point should be towards the Hudson/Greenland.In general when height rises into the Hudson and into the Bearing Sea this should be ridging along the 4-corners and not into the S/plains

My pick to win the big dance this year is the Gators.Those guys are playing awesome as of late.I'd like to say Auburn,but i think they look tired now from playing all these Quad1 teams which in my mind has been insane. I'd be shocked still if Auburn isnt a one seed.JMHO

Still looks like we have a severe threat upcoming and possibly some BN temps for a few days after.Thats a big trough in East Asia going through all the way to Taiwan the next couple days,probably more indictive of the MJO into the I0/Maritime during this period. If the JMA is anywhere right the MJO is going to move fast into the WH in a couple weeks,still looks like at this point as we get into well part of April it could be quite interesting as long as the signal stays strong,which is nothing guaranteed at this point

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/meso_band.php?sat=G16&lat=34N&lon=90W&band=FED13&length=30

these cell are booking it in MS

Tornado headed towards Morgan City

Yeah to bad its not at night,would be a awesome light show

Starting to recycle maybe

PDS now

Safe bet

Yeah and the sad parts its just starting,wait until tomorrow

Tor emergency in MO,Carter CO

Yes,these are all broken cell super cells which should mature the next couple hrs

Oh its such a mesmerizing road,but there is so many few exits,its really dangerous in severe weather,i really love going through there any other time

Franklin Co is getting hit hard in MO,already had one tor and another is fixing to hit,2.75"hail marker

Cranking up

Yeah dont go down the Natchez to get to Jackson..lol..That could be the road of no return during severe

If the NAM is anywhere right,you might be chasing in your back yard,stay safe bro

Tomorrow there is a trough moving through into East China with a ridge off of Japan, so we should possibly see a trough into the plains and at least a severe threat upcoming

Seemingly right now in Mid Tn models have been showning nothing but invergence into parts of Mid TN.But some of the latest Mesoscales are showing a stronger LLJ, which should aide into being a cap buster for possibly early morning severe storms

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday. Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited. ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity... A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent, intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode evolution (QLCS and supercells). The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these features become better resolved. ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast... The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South. Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent). However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states... The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be limited by widespread training precipitation. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025