jaxjagman

I took my shit down this morning while it was warm..lol SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 After an intensely foggy morning, it`s cloudy and very muggy out there. Temperatures have warmed into the low 60s so far and will make at run at 70 by this afternoon. The remainder of today will be cloudy and dry as the ridge responsible for our spell of above- normal warmth finally shifts to our east. Behind the exiting ridge will come a fairly strong upper low that will push a strong cold front through Middle TN Sunday night. Ahead of the frontal passage, flow aloft will transition out of the southwest, drawing anomalously high moisture into the area. Looking at soundings, instability overall is very limited with less than 100 J/kg and profiles are totally saturated. With that being said, a 60 kt low- level jet will be in place as this line moves through, and if any of that wind can mix down, there will be a chance for a gusts up to 40-50 mph with the line. With regards to any tornado potential, the threat is very, very low. Low-level helicities and shear are more than sufficient, but limited instability and weak lapse rates will make tor development very difficult. The most likely scenario is that a narrow band of heavy rain and gusty winds will move through tomorrow night between 7pm-1am. Non-thunderstorm gradient winds will be gusty tomorrow as the surface low moves across our north. There will be a steady breeze with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Here`s your notice now to get those outdoor Christmas decorations down!

Thx,you dont piss anyone off here,glad you post here

Wait a minute,i remember this storm now.The LP came from Middle MS and rode trough Cen Alabama into Ga,this caused a deformation band into North Alabama,we just moved from Jacksonville to Lawrecrmburg.Tn,we got 8" from that storm

TBH,thats not a clipper by reanalysis

Thats crazy,you sure this wasnt from LP?I i mean clippers are weak until they hit the Plateau,in general if you get 2 inches here thats a nice clipper.I remember tho when i lived in Lawrenceburg we got the lake effect snow from the Great Lakes that lasted about three days,didnt add up to much,i got tired of it snowing,didnt even hardly put a dusting down,just light snow or flakes

I wouldnt be to concerned with a ice storm,maybe next winter,We in Mid Tn and W/TN get ice storms from a NINO not NINA,plus this a more East based LaNina,the east gets all that and more than likely more snow

Yeah it not easy for you guys,its all with the trough axis and this has alot to do with the NAO,we never do good here in Mid Tn with clippers,we get very little and watch them explode as it gets into the Cumberland

Better than whats its been,we are getting rid of "The Pig" like @Flashcalled the Bering Sea ridge,just getting rid of that is a still a plus,we are fixing to have an active STJ,which could produce,just dont want to bury it or its hoping for clippers,we just live in precarious part of the lower 48 generally in winter there is a cutoff 1-40N-S,we just have to have the perfect setup,its not easy as many people think in Tn,alot can go wrong

I'm kinda like you,screw the cold if its not gonna snow.Kinda of like a cross hair tho,if you dont have cold you dont have snow.Our predicted high in Nashville is 74 Sunday,the record here is 75 back all the way into 1874,that's nuts

There is plenty of blocking into Mongolia/Russia,the problem to me is with the blocking into the Barents Sea.But the EPS looks better to me than yesterday,its much colder into Canada.It would even be better that the blocking into Barents goes into the Greenland Sea.But i guess it's baby steps maybe,we got rid of the Bering Sea ridge and now have a active STJ as @Houston mentioned

Thats not a warm look as we get into the the end of the first week of Jan

Buyt this should be more or less from the East Asia winter monsoon trough sorta speaking this shifts H from the Bering Sea into Siberia,Mongolia

I mean,Dec should even break Dec records for EQBO

This might be one of the most negative EQBO since we've seen into the early 40's into Jan,tho its still up in the air right now https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

This should be the real deal as we get into Jan,should see a change after that trough moves east,this cold spell is nothing but transient right now,you could possibly be fixing to see a more substantial one afterwards

You should see some teleconection sorta speaking of where of MJO will be for the next several days even tho its into the COD upcoming

And it should be a pattern change upcoming unlike we are seeing now,look at East Asia after D3

Merry Christmas to all by the way!! I left one out the more important one,while yes it's a -NAO,its still a more based -ENAO

Basically in winter time when you see rising heights into Mongolia and troughs into East China trough Japan, it should look like this days after or around 8 days give or take When you see the opposite it should in general be the opposite. While the NAO also plays a big part in winter time for us,you'd still want to see a -WNAO and not a -ENAO, a -ENAO the trough axis moves further east more towards the east coast,you'd prefer a -WNAO,especially for us west of the Cunberland

More like a NINO the AR out west

Me too,i talked about the EAMT last night but if its a strong one you should in general show strong HP into Siberia/Mongolia,weak one its still warm in the SE,dont see that right now.Its flipped in a NIno compared to a Nina,weak EAMT is BN temps in the SE,looking at todays run of the EPS,but it still slightly better

All good,most of those years were in a more NINA compared to this one,but i havent seen you post much so welcome to the board

Yeah but comparing 2000 to 2025 is nonsense

The oceans the last few weeks has been pretty much Chaotic from Kelvin Waves and the Rossby Wave Train,no end in site,why you see the RMMS do all this flip flopping sorta speaking

Like most people that own pay sites,they just are click baits so you subscribe