jaxjagman

In Mid Tn some of most catastrophic ice storms happen during a more or less in a moderate NINO.I.E 1951 and 1994,we in general in Tn have have two distinct weather patterns east and west of the Cumberland Plateau.In a NINA a ice storm is more common east of the Cumberland,during a NINO its west. We get some of our best winter storms in a NINO than compared to a NINA around Nashville.Though in general it starts out with ZR and/or IP before the columns cool to become all SN Edit:I'm not trying to dispute you if what i said,just adding to climo here,what you said is in general is right around BNA,cold surface temps and WAA is a recipe for ice

Typical +TNH,while we get into wk2 of Jan,+PNA,Trough AXIS in the middle of the country,subtropical ridge builds over Florida and the JET is well north of the Tn Valley,i actually thought we'd have a chance last week to maybe have somewhat a better pattern,but even tho it looks good in East Asia,other teleconnections still play a part in NA,so this time seemingly might not work out well for us

This is true.Just to clarify myself.I'm not saying this is gloom and doom,i should have worded my words better. But its really been a unusual pattern so far.You see this standing wave along the MC,WP since fall and the interaction with Rossby and Kelvin waves the past few weeks is killing the MJO signal and more than likely will continue. When you have a +TNH which is what social media is the talk about,this causes the trough axis to shift west,then you see the subtropical ridge over Florida.But,this looks more transient on todays ensembles on the long range. I honestly wouldnt trust any of the LR models right now.

I plead the 5th

The GAAM albeit was still in the COD,it was still positive

I mean, when i see the MJO and the GAAM in spring coupled with each other id be getting excited with severe weather if the MJO was into phase one or two,its just not coupled right now,but this winter we have gotten our cold when the AAM is positive not negative,what you are seeing now

I just dont think BAM is right. This winter we see the tropical forcing is more or less has been into the WP/MC,its kinda opposite of what he says. You can actually look when East Tn got its early season snow was when the GAAM was positive and not negative.The GAAM should still sync up with the MJO to couple with it.

But BAM is missing with the tropical forcing,sorry but hes wrong

Edited that about to fall not autumn

Yeah but the tropical forcing since fall has been more or less into the MC/WP with Rossby and Kelvin waves none the less a standing wave just as well.Its one reason why you see East Asia keep troughs in East Asia continous

Better get something fast,it looks rather bleak right now down the road with that strong ERW thats fixing to pass along the IDL the next few days,Maybe it will weaken some but this could cause the tropical forcing to shit towards the WP into the MC,probably end up seeing RMM madness continue,you're seemingly starting to see the NINA background getting taken out now even tho it's still NINA.

To an extent this is true,but besides a NAO the first step is a good PNA in our parts , really some deception to East Tn to the West.TN,mountains im sure causes part of this,while the east wants to see a more stronger -NAO,it dont work like that from the close to the Cumberland to West it just leads with us with cold dry with cutters,compared to the east,we really live in a weird climo in Tn in winter,its really unusual to see the state wide snowfall at the sane time

I dunno,its just what i see now but planetary waves can disrupt the pattern,its nothing like equatorial waves

Yes,they didnt put there link at the bottom for nothing more than click bait,But in general you can look at East Asia to show you what the pattern might look like in several days,you see a trough going through Mongolia/Russia,with ridging building up into the Koreas with a ULL passing by NE Japan,it should look like this a ridge in the middle of the counrty,a crappie PNA and a ULL IN the NE,still the same the cold in winter relies on other teleconnections

Its happened before with the AR out west during a NINA,buts its still more common with a NINO not NINA,it happened before in the winter of 2022-23

I know,i posted this in our severe thread earlier,its kinda like 2023

Right,the MJO right now you should look at whats driving the pattern,even the ensembles havent been very good in the long range this winter,its been a weird winter sorta speaking

There is so much crap going on this winter,its really hard to trust any model,we've been pushing back cold since Nov and seems to be maybe doing this again,you throw off one piece of the puzzle it throws off everything

Not that its not already chaos,just more..lol

Chaos again with the MJO signal,alot of stuff going on as we get into the New Year with the Rossby Wave train and Kelvin Waves

Wonder what this severe season will look like? The pattern oddly enough resembles 2023.During the winter of 2022-23,there was also a AR during that winter.Yes,AR'S can be had in NINAS,but are still more common in NINO'S. The latest charts today show NINO is peeping around the corner,while the subsurface in the east still have some cold pockets -2-3C mainly in the east,so it's not going away yet Not saying 2023 will happen again but it still is sorta a good analog year.Of course,there is also a chance of a SSWE later in the winter season

Has NINA actually not peaked,i mean the East is warning and the west gets cooler each day

Kinda like wash rinse and repeat,with Rossby and Kelvin Waves along with the standing wave in this regions for months it seems close to the MC

Decent look after the next couple days,you should be looking at a pattern change the next couple days.As this trough passes through Russia/Mongolia,models continue to show rising heights in this region for several days,just get ready for some moderation into the first week of Jan,throughs into Mongolia/Russia mean ridge building into the Koreas,so you should/could be seeing a -PNA for a brief time

I took my shit down this morning while it was warm..lol SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 After an intensely foggy morning, it`s cloudy and very muggy out there. Temperatures have warmed into the low 60s so far and will make at run at 70 by this afternoon. The remainder of today will be cloudy and dry as the ridge responsible for our spell of above- normal warmth finally shifts to our east. Behind the exiting ridge will come a fairly strong upper low that will push a strong cold front through Middle TN Sunday night. Ahead of the frontal passage, flow aloft will transition out of the southwest, drawing anomalously high moisture into the area. Looking at soundings, instability overall is very limited with less than 100 J/kg and profiles are totally saturated. With that being said, a 60 kt low- level jet will be in place as this line moves through, and if any of that wind can mix down, there will be a chance for a gusts up to 40-50 mph with the line. With regards to any tornado potential, the threat is very, very low. Low-level helicities and shear are more than sufficient, but limited instability and weak lapse rates will make tor development very difficult. The most likely scenario is that a narrow band of heavy rain and gusty winds will move through tomorrow night between 7pm-1am. Non-thunderstorm gradient winds will be gusty tomorrow as the surface low moves across our north. There will be a steady breeze with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Here`s your notice now to get those outdoor Christmas decorations down!