jaxjagman

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 59 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Far Northwest Georgia Middle into Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 820 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Broken bands of severe thunderstorms will move across the Watch area this evening into the overnight. A few stronger cells embedded within the bands will potentially pose the greatest severe risk. A few tornadoes, including the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, and severe gusts 60-80 mph are the main threats with the stronger thunderstorms.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio Valley/Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest... Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period. Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley. Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast. Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z). With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm development within the next few hours. General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for several QLCS tornadoes. The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight, a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN. Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.

Where are you?

Not a big of cap in the warm sector Sunday but still there,some shortwave troughs into West and MID Tn,if that inversion isnt as strong there could be some kicker that pop up ahead of the line,see what the mesoscale models show the upcoming runs

Sorry to hear this,my prayers are with you bro

Dont think it was severe,right after the line passed the warning was cancelled further east of us

We got our severe thunderstorm watch at 210 and it was stamped at 220,something was off

Maybe some strong storms next week,tornado threat seems to be low ATM,if the GFS is right there could be some strong storms into Mid South/Mid Tn and Alabama during the nocturnal hours Tuesday morning.main show should be Wed but even that it seems like clouds set in before hand,not very exciting to me ATM,see what the models show tomorrow and Tuesday. We should go into a lull for maybe several days after Wed as the MJO is headed into the WH Mid month,but some uncertainty as where it goes afterwards ATM.CFS the last few days had been showing the tropical forcing going back into the WP not even without a Rossby Wave,thats not gonna happen and it backed off today,not sure what it is but the CFS has this big bias for whatever reason into the WP Nina seems like its on life support now,models have been showing a EWB into the IO towards the end of THE month,that should help take the NINA background out,say hello to NINO

The MJO seemingly is gonna be stuck into the WP which could be for much of March from the Rossby Wave Train,this should help NINA stay alive for the next few weeks anyways

That would be cool,but it might be kinda cloudy in TN.Weather always tries and find us in TN to screw us..lol

Dont think right now you can possibly pick which RMM is gonna be wrong or right,Its gonna flake out because of a Rossby Wave into wk2 of March,so it could be just getting destructive interference and be further along than you think it might be,or then again,it might not

Could be,but May into June the Jet goes north of us,dont mean you cant get severe but the odds are against it,tornado threat should seemingly shift into the OV plus the plains

Thats wild,i read from Brownsville this was the warmest day in the US history ever from D-F on records

I agree ,should we .If we get a SSWE,which seems possible in this time of season after MET spring this should cause the Jet to shift south.The wave lenghts arent as long with a SSWE than compared to actual winter time with a SSWE sorta speaking,so it all general happens 1-2 weeks later after a SSWE But this has all the potential to be a quite active period upcoming.JMHO

Yeah they said they was changing it i think in Jan but they didnt show the intensity levels,thanks for posting this

Is this just some freak pattern like last year?The RONI since summer has been quite similar with a moderate NINA,both years it was basically a BN temp Jan.Last year we a had a Major SSWE March 8.,this year its around the same time,if its a Major Sure the wave lenghts are different,we had severe Mid March and a tornado outbreak the end of March The first pic of the tropical forcing is last year,2nd is what the CFS is showing today

Seriously the MJO is going into the WP like it or nor

seems like the NJO is getting destructive interference

Probably gonna be stuck into the WP like the GEFS shows until that Rossby Wave moves soon,which wont seemingly should happen soon

That was a awesome day going to SWAD with my daughter today.Shes all into to severe now.Shes doing her major in computer science at Lipscomb right now but wants to in the Met field now.

We always get screwed when blocking gets stronger along the Aleutian into the Bearing Sea.Severe with the Jet goes up into the OV. Models did a fairly good job the moisture influx sorta speaking,we didnt have nothing much of any kicker but instability seemingly was still there than more advertised.Guess we say NEXT

The next few days there is a Rossby Wave thats going pass west of the IDL,some of these RMMS especially the JMA albeit its still in the COD are or seemingly getting destructive interfernce from this

I typically use the Koreas and the Yellow Sea in our parts.You wanna see deeper troughs into this part for us While also using East Asia doesnt never correlate 1:1,you have other teleconnections to look at in North America,but it still should give you a rough idea. While you see a trough here into Japan,this is more than likely be a trough in the East.I wouldnt be surprised to see this slow down in future runs.The GAAM looks fairly negative right now,this should be a slower pattern just because the earths rotation slows down sorta speaking,its opposite with a positive GAAM

Its still a messed up look.The CFS is showing the tropical forcing into the WP into IO which is from Rossby and Kelvin Waves,so its more than likely gonna cause destructive interference with the MJO signal,which will more than likely go into the COD

I agree with the NAO and i DO agree with the wave lenghts,but when you see a Rex Block into where i mentioned above this typically is a +PNA,it would take strong -NAO to counter that.It's one reason why last spring our severe season went to crap after a early start,this can cause the Jet Max to shit further north into spring,its one of the reasons with our severe shifted into the OV