jaxjagman

We'll see if anything mischievous happens happens during this time

You must have been close to my house,what part of Brentwood was this?

Just to clarify myself,i do agree with you in Tn

Could be right,climo alot of Tn is around mid March,but in occasion this time of year you can still get one.I know we did get a tornado in the first of March of 2017,but Vortex is in Ms., its climo for them

I dunno,its still 4 days out you still will see changes i believe.Its getting into NAM now but i wouldnt trust it 84 HRS out, but sometimes it does pull a rabbit out of its hat..lol.

Believe myself, but what is happening in east Australia it seems these tropical systems are from CCKW'S,out into the IO is seemingly is a ERW. moving through the IO,this seemingly will stall out the MJO signal into Africa,Western IO upcoming https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-pacific-tropical-cyclones-rae-seru-alfred-unusual/

Still think the next chance of severe should come into wk 2 of March.Euro is showing a trough into East China /Yellow Sea with a ridge over Japan.IMO this could be a trough in the plains with a ridge in the east.Still should be around the 11-12th

Pretty impressive dynamical system right now being shown by the Euro this afternoon what ever happens, on the time stamp on the pic the pressure drops to 979MB

Actually most of the models show the potential of the MJO to stall out in either Africa.Western IO today

I like what the JMA is showing.There is a ERW in the eastern IO today and should progress into the Western IO/Africa and slow the signal down and potentially stall it out for a brief time

Dunno this far out but this still to me anyways should be around the time for the next chance of severe after the one upcoming

The Euro the reflective maps shows a possibility of some discrete storms ahead of that line in your parts,but that far out we know that drill ...lol

Into March the MJO the models want to mute the signal from Rossby Waves once again,it still should be relevant and not go into the COD as fast as most are showing

Think myself its to fast myself right now

I like what the EPS shows right now but this could still change by then.Right now its showing a trough in East China then Yellow Sea , Koreas with a ridge around Japan around Mrch 4-5,this could be severe around March 11-12..JMO

Actually even if you look at the Euro this afternoon there is height rises in the east and a trough out west

I duuno,you could be right but for once i'd agree with the GFS against the ensembles

Timmer is all in for dixie severe\

Its hard to trust the NAO at this point,but i'm starting to believe this cold after the severe threat(if its even severe) is short lived and should have another shot at severe a few days after.I dont really trust the Euro as we get into the 2nd week of March,i dont beieve there should be falling heights in the east it seemingly should be rising heights.I do agree with the severe threat mid month,the dashboard right now is showing a multi day severe event seemingly right now starting March 15

Yall have the talent to go far in the dance,polls to me dont mean much,its March that counts

It hasnt been horrible for cold,snow was meh here.,believe we got close to avg or probably slighty below,no big snow storms.If you like cold this seemingly was one of the coldest we've seen in several years.yeah we got warm for a spell but everyone should expect some moderation in winter,we live in the south

I'd personally would stick with the JMA right now with the MJO.Some of the RMM'S are killing the MJO signal at least right now where it seems to be is from the Rossby wave train where it strenghtens the WWB,it should still be progressive,this is causing constructive interference with the MJO signal,even the majority of the Euro members shows this,the MJO should be progressive

Still think we have a chance of severe after Met winter,seems like it could turn cold again right now shortly after.The next couple days there will be a trough going through East China and the Koreas with rising heights off east Japan,this should be a cold front around the 4th or 5th or a trough in the Plains/east. Right now the models are showing the East Asia jet retraction should be underway during this time.As we get around Met spring the MJO seemingly right now will strenghten as we get into Met spring into Africa and the Western IO as it moves towards the Maritime,this should also strenghten NINA once again in the upcoming couple weeks