jaxjagman

BY the GFS winter returns in East Asia,not to the degree the other models shows,but they still show it.

In the next couple days the models show a big ridge starts to get going into the Sea of Japan into Northern Japan,with a trough trailing behind it. This seemingly towards the end of the month of Feb would build a ridge into the NE and then we should start to see height rises and a return flow from the SW.No clue where severe would set up even if it does but it does seem to be a time frame to watch closely.

The end of the month right now looks more severe than winter.Big ridge is going to sit on top of Japan and head east,it seems possible like the GFS has been showing this is going to be a fairly strong ridge to our NE which in return we would see the heights rise,JMHO

GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 02/13/24 Valid - 02/21/24 - 03/05/24 Since earlier this month, RMM observations show a westward retreat of the MJO signal over the western Pacific, followed by the resumption of a more canonical eastward propagation where it has recently entered the Western Hemisphere (phase 8). The observed behavior appears to be tied to a fairly strong Rossby wave activity in the global tropics which led to a breakdown of the wave-1 spatial pattern in the upper-level velocity potential anomaly fields during the past week. Looking ahead, RMM forecasts have been consistent in favoring a weakened and incoherent MJO through late February, as models remain nearly unanimous with the signal falling within the unit circle in the next two weeks. However, analysis of several MJO variable forecasts reveal a more coherent MJO perspective, and the thinking is that the disorganizing MJO favored in the RMM forecasts may be more of an undesired effect of RMM methodology. A comparison of RMM indices with and without the 120-day running mean shows a sharp left-to-right shift of values in phase space, where the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) event that peaked this past fall appears to be exerting a dominating influence in the mean. Because this low frequency response is no longer evident in the tropical circulation (namely, in the absence of enhanced lower-level easterlies over the Indian Ocean), the RMM forecasts may be overcorrecting themselves to the right along the RMM 1 axis, where the eastward propagating signals favored in the Western Hemisphere (phases 8 and 1) are actually higher in amplitude than what is being depicted. As a result, this would suggest stronger MJO activity in the outlook, which is supported by upper-level velocity potential anomaly forecasts favoring more of a wave-1 pattern during the next several weeks. Though, it should be noted that even with this RMM biasing, there remains some uncertainty with the evolution of the MJO given a tendency in the model solutions for faster propagation speeds. This is still contributing to high ensemble spread, placing the enhanced envelope at different phases at the longer leads, which is also featured in the upper-level velocity potential forecasts between the ECMWF and GEFS. Regardless of these differences with timing, the large-scale environment is expected to be favorable for tropical cyclogenesis over the southern Indian Ocean, with increasingly less favorable conditions for additional Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation over the South Pacific heading into early March.

That was a nice little storm,some intense snow with flakes over a half dollar and thundersnow,to bad it's already about to end

ripping https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player.php?alias=brentwood201173a

Ripping half dollars,its freaking crazy..lol

THUNDERSNOW !!My first time ever

should pick up soon,almost 40 dbz on the radar to just our NW

those are some huge flakes..lol

This is what KY said this afternoon .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 345 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 Monday Night through Wednesday Night... The forecast for Monday night is quite complex and contains a substantial amount of uncertainty. An area of surface low pressure is forecast to move east-northeast across northern TN and into southeast KY and into West Virgina during evening and into the overnight hours. On the north side of this low pressure system, widespread rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to be moving across Kentucky and portions of southern Indiana. As the low slides into southeast KY, colder air will quickly wrap into the backside of the system resulting in the rain quickly changing over to wet snow. Much of the current guidance shows a heavy band of wet snow transversing the region Monday evening within a strongly forced deformation band. Earlier runs from the overnight period suggested that this heavier band would transverse southern IL/IN/OH. However, there has been a notable southward trend in this band in the morning and afternoon guidance. As of this writing, the highest threat of accumulating snows continues to be over portions of southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Initially, surface and ground temperatures are expected to be well above freezing early Monday evening. However, as the transition to snow happens (which may be quite fast), the rate of snowfall will likely overwhelm the warm ground/surface temperatures. Still, we`ll loose some of the early accumulation due to the warm ground and above freezing surface temps, but air temps are likely to fall pretty quickly as we transition over to snow. The snow is likely to be the heaviest from late Monday evening into the early hours of Tuesday morning. Given the amount of forcing and lift across the region Monday evening, the snow could come down quite impressively in some spots given the convective signals that we`re seeing in the high resolution models. It is possible that intense snow may fall in areas where rates could reach 1-2"/hr perhaps higher in isolated spots. Given the uncertainty in the overall setup, the marginal temperatures, and continued shifting of model guidance, messaging this system remains a bit problematic. Uncertainty in snowfall amounts and location remains too high to delineate any one area for a Winter Storm Watch. To alert the public of the adverse weather that is expected to impact the region, surrounding WFO`s collaborated and decided to go with a higher impact Winter Weather Advisory with this forecast issuance to get the word out. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches with localized amounts up to 4 inches are likely within the advisory area. Depending on forecast trends, this advisory will likely undergo further refinement over the next 24 hours. If confidence increases on where higher snows may end up falling, an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for portions of the area may be required in subsequent forecasts. Persons in southern Indiana and central Kentucky should continue to closely monitor forecasts tonight and on Monday and be prepared for hazardous road conditions Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

Its insane Carver if this were to happen..lol

thats crazy,even the GFS now,this was suppose to be into the OV

I believe this is more ENSO than anything else.But that's JMHO 11 Feb 2024 1005.21 1008.95 -40.73 -8.94 -5.15 10 Feb 2024 1005.61 1009.10 -39.53 -7.15 -5.06 9 Feb 2024 1003.50 1008.45 -46.54 -5.57 -4.93 8 Feb 2024 1005.88 1007.85 -32.23 -3.97 -4.64 7 Feb 2024 1005.31 1008.70 -39.05 -2.84 -4.42 6 Feb 2024 1005.56 1009.50 -41.69 -1.50 -4.12 5 Feb 2024 1007.06 1009.90 -36.41 -0.02 -3.85 4 Feb 2024 1008.30 1009.40 -28.05 0.94 -3.66 3 Feb 2024 1007.67 1007.55 -22.19 1.65 -3.51 2 Feb 2024 1006.85 1008.15 -29.01 2.20 -3.36 1 Feb 2024 1007.27 1008.65 -29.40 3.19 -3.02 31 Jan 2024 1009.49 1009.45 -21.52 4.18 -2.70 30 Jan 2024 1009.93 1009.15 -18.04 4.81 -2.50 29 Jan 2024 1009.71 1008.55 -16.25 5.81 -2.29 28 Jan 2024 1010.40 1008.00 -10.41 6.71 -2.02 27 Jan 2024 1011.41 1007.50 -3.29 7.10 -1.83 26 Jan 2024 1012.20 1008.10 -2.40 7.08 -1.83 25 Jan 2024 1011.37 1008.40 -7.72 7.07 -1.81 24 Jan 2024 1011.85 1008.10 -4.05 7.35 -1.78 23 Jan 2024 1010.69 1007.45 -6.45 7.18 -1.77 22 Jan 2024 1010.29 1005.50 0.85 6.48 -1.69 21 Jan 2024 1010.18 1003.25 10.93 5.24 -1.69 20 Jan 2024 1010.92 1003.10 15.13 3.85 -1.89

Euro looks totally different from last night.I'll still hold a slim chance but the globals have been mostly consistent with the southern system being more suppressed,plus we still dont even know what the teleconnections will be like

Yes,we live in a different world climo wise than the east,after you get over the mountains its a different world.This is also the reason why we see more tornadoes in our parts compared to the east

The high in the Atalantic,if its stronger and even more westward than being shown should be ample enough to change the steering pattern and change the storm from going into North Florida

Our last storm here in in MId Tn in Jan we had a -PDO/-PNA-NAO,chart is the EPO.I still think we have a chance for a storm or at least some S word but i'm not sure we'll see the -NAO we saw in Jan 2023 12 28 -1.71 2023 12 29 -36.25 2023 12 30 -0.77 2023 12 31 -8.59 2024 01 01 -16.35 2024 01 02 -14.37 2024 01 03 71.51 2024 01 04 199.53 2024 01 05 196.56 2024 01 06 81.39 2024 01 07 34.24 2024 01 08 65.26 2024 01 09 94.10 2024 01 10 0.67 2024 01 11 -60.09 2024 01 12 -43.39 2024 01 13 -0.39 2024 01 14 -23.32 2024 01 15 -161.03 2024 01 16 -231.80 2024 01 17 -207.17 2024 01 18 -195.44 2024 01 19 -168.61 2024 01 20 -33.35 2024 01 21 61.72 2024 01 22 88.66 2024 01 23 105.73 2024 01 24 108.20 2024 01 25 46.39 2024 01 26 54.46 2024 01 27 111.99 2024 01 28 104.89 2024 01 29 115.66 2024 01 30 98.16 2024 01 31 21.32 2024 02 01 13.72 2024 02 02 30.50 2024 02 03 8.65 2024 02 04 -40.74 2024 02 05 -57.45 2024 02 06 -33.05 2024 02 07 34.99 2024 02 08 47.94

Yeah i wasnt laughing at the post,the soup in funny

We could get a storm in the long range if the teles work in our favor it seems maybe just a slim chance.The last couple days there was a system going into the Yellow Sea and South Korea basically,so chances are we should see a system further south of us.Right now looking at the teles its gonna be to far south and not really much ample cold air,just something to watch Sure looks cold tho by Euro AK Rex block and -NAO,probably just cold for us here and more chances if anything for the eastern people

This was the 4th strongest DMI since 1980 this last fall,all of the other years always resulted into a NINA on the ONI,into the summer months,plus all three other times before hit a moderate to strong NINA.Seemingly in 1994 this was just a Moderate NINO compared to 1997 and 2019,strong.This year is strong(2023) 1997 and 2019 were proceeded by with multi NINA years ,strong NINAS ,but theoretically you could also say 1994 was actually more NINA driven into the pattern for multiple years 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 8 February 2024 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance). During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Niño index values [Fig. 2]. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña. Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 March 2024.

Seemingly the Euro and CFS are close to being on the same page right now .CFS has been showing the velocity getting back into the IO and even Maritime into March,it just recently back down and now as we head towards the end of the first week of March its now into Africa just getting into the Western IO