jaxjagman

He might ne talking about Timmer https://x.com/i/status/1898784642007707656

Yes,even the GFS shows storm mode wont get cranking until after the inversion breaks down around give or take sunset Friday,Thats still days away so much can change between now and then like you mentioned

NSSL

.LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025 Warm and dry, spring-like conditions will be in place Tuesday and Wednesday as dry high pressure remains in control with an upper level ridge extending west to east across the southern states. Temperatures will run around 15 degrees above normal with daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows mostly in the 40s and 50s. South to southwest winds will pick up a little Tuesday into Wednesday, and this could boost temps even warmer than our forecast values, perhaps around 80 in some spots. By Wednesday afternoon, a compact shortwave will bring stormy wx to the ArkLaTex spreading to the Mid South. It appears the system will weaken by the time it reaches us Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder, but we do not expect any severe wx and average rainfall amounts will be less than one quarter inch for locations that receive rain. Otherwise, the warm pattern will continue late this week with Friday temps well into the 70s to around 80. Unfortunately, we are seeing a much stronger system with potential for widespread stormy wx this weekend. A large and deep low pressure system with a trailing cold front will form over the Plains Friday, then move eastward Saturday and Saturday night. The main surface low is expected to track well to our north, up into the Great Lakes, but this expansive system could bring severe wx all the way from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast. As one would expect in this forecast timeframe, there are many uncertainties including the exact strength and track of the system, return moisture quality, surface instability, and timing of the cold front. What we can say with some confidence for Middle Tennessee is the weekend looks quite breezy with showers and storms and heavy downpours at times. Rain probabilities are around 80 percent for Saturday with an 80 percent chance for more than 1 inch of rain. Some models are suggesting higher totals well over 2 inches for the weekend! The severe storm potential (damaging winds, hail, tornadoes) will come into better focus as we go through the week, so stay tuned.

Euro has been the last couple runs trending to more like the last system,There is some vast differences right now especially in the Atlantic and Pac but even that could change this far out,just a observation anways

I agree,still should potentially be looking at a active period upcoming.MJO is fixing to have destructive interference with the signal into the the IO/Maritime quite a few RMMM's take it into the COD just past Mid March , but seemingly right now could eject fast into the WH,least both the CFS and Euro are showing this which would be as we get into the later part of April quite interesting

Possibly a more wide spread threat towards and into next weekemd

The ENSO thread on the main page has become an IMBY thread,it use to be a functional thread or somewhat at one time,its annoying to me now to even look at,just saying.You should see as the MJO stalls out into the IO or progressive slowly,this should strenghten NINA into the upcoming weeks

Like to see what the JMA shows the next few days,These ERW'S are much slower than Kelvin,i think the Euro mean this afternoon is right to a certain extent but ,i really believe the MJO signal should stay into the IO past mid March and longer,really think its gonna be a active pattern we start to see,like Jeff said in the spring thread,buckle up !!

Think we are fixing to get into a real active pattern as we get into Mid March,the Euro mean has been showing this the last couple days the MJO should stall out as its in Africa/Western IO for a few days basically from a ERW,it should eject into the IO days after,you should be seeing these more amplified troughs progress into East Asia like the Euro is showing as the MJO chugs along towards the Maritime.JMHO and not a forecast

We'll see if anything mischievous happens happens during this time

You must have been close to my house,what part of Brentwood was this?

Just to clarify myself,i do agree with you in Tn

Could be right,climo alot of Tn is around mid March,but in occasion this time of year you can still get one.I know we did get a tornado in the first of March of 2017,but Vortex is in Ms., its climo for them

I dunno,its still 4 days out you still will see changes i believe.Its getting into NAM now but i wouldnt trust it 84 HRS out, but sometimes it does pull a rabbit out of its hat..lol.

Believe myself, but what is happening in east Australia it seems these tropical systems are from CCKW'S,out into the IO is seemingly is a ERW. moving through the IO,this seemingly will stall out the MJO signal into Africa,Western IO upcoming https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-pacific-tropical-cyclones-rae-seru-alfred-unusual/

Still think the next chance of severe should come into wk 2 of March.Euro is showing a trough into East China /Yellow Sea with a ridge over Japan.IMO this could be a trough in the plains with a ridge in the east.Still should be around the 11-12th

Pretty impressive dynamical system right now being shown by the Euro this afternoon what ever happens, on the time stamp on the pic the pressure drops to 979MB

Actually most of the models show the potential of the MJO to stall out in either Africa.Western IO today

I like what the JMA is showing.There is a ERW in the eastern IO today and should progress into the Western IO/Africa and slow the signal down and potentially stall it out for a brief time

Dunno this far out but this still to me anyways should be around the time for the next chance of severe after the one upcoming

The Euro the reflective maps shows a possibility of some discrete storms ahead of that line in your parts,but that far out we know that drill ...lol

Into March the MJO the models want to mute the signal from Rossby Waves once again,it still should be relevant and not go into the COD as fast as most are showing