jaxjagman

its 15 days out but still wild to look at if its true,that ridge has been there most of the summer off southeast Japan,it hasnt allowed any typhoons to go other than in East China,youd like to see this get displaced ,broke down or something,everytime its been showing this it builds back up im a couple days

We had a -PDO back into 1972 into the June,and in August was one of the strongest solar storms on record.The CME reached earth in 14+ hours,that must have been one impressive storm to blow sea mines in the VietNam War,if that is true,but that must have been a quite an impressive light show either way

Yeah until that pesky ridge off SoithEastern Japan breaks down it shouldnt happen.Everytime you see long range models trying to show this in the long range is from troughs to fast or just not strong enough to do it to some extent and even when its gets broke down or shunted east it build back in the same parts in days

Guess the good news is its not July,August otherwise a ridge is setiing in the next couple days and probably should be a fixture the next several days

NINO looks still strong to me,you even see another strong WWB into Sept with hardly any EWB,start seeing EWB around South America should be one of the first signs the Walker Circulation is breaking down,until then

That not true to some extent,while the 82-83 strong NINO showed a -PDO into srping it went positive into summer.That 82-83 winter was quite uniques alone which had the help of a EQBO and not a WQBO this year

I agree with you,it dont seem like when the monthly updates you should see much change with a typhoon going into East China the next couple days.Look at how warm those SST's are east Japan into the Pac.Its rare in a strong NINO to even witness this

PDO next update shouldnt change much with a typhoon headed into east China the next couple days.Maybe this winter will have its own analogs,but i wouldn't rely on a +PDO,probably wont happen ATM,thats rare in a strong NINO those SSTS east of Japan,lets go skiing in West Japan this winter?Very unique pattern regardless

PDO is gonna fluctuate by the tropical PAC,strong WWB along with Rossbly Waves its gonna get quite active in the PAC the next few weels.Last thing is wanna see is another typhoon hitting East China,which seemingly might happen again

Last typhoon that hit East China warmed the SSTS off East Asia especially East off Japan.Still myself would rather to see the PDO right now to rise and not fall.We might be seeing a repeat of the pattern we are in as we get closer to end of August into Sept. That strong WWB ongoing along with the Rossbly Waves should really kick off some tropical storms in the PAC the next few weeks

93 right now,not sure we will hit triple digits,but should make a decent un at it,unlike yesterday there are no clouds today

This thread has become into a bitch session from i said and you said and im right and you are wrong,its become quite comical ,its not even weather realated and some of yall talk about humility, you should act it than preach it

NFL Sunday ticket is strange on YOUTUBE.I got my daughter to sign up so i can watch Jacksonville because shes a student.It dont ask you nothing but your age,so i got it half price..lol.

Freaking hot. I went back and looked at August in the strong NINOS at thermals in the MID state,mainly 82-97,i still discount 2015,it just wasn't the same type NINO IN 1982 we averaged between 88-90f,we only had 3 consective days reaching 90F+ IN 1997 we hit 93F on 4th,16=17th.But the avg tempa in whole was 86.6 for the month I blame this on the PDO myself ot it should be a good starting point at least.Its what makes this NINO unique,but it better change the next several weeks,its rare to see such a negative PDO than positive this time of year in a stromg NINO Id be kinda concerned about the PDO right now into winter,it better start going to negative real soon,you got to remember in NINOS your indices go south into fall and winter,they dont go north

Fairly decent WWB is kicking off,could possible last into Sept.Subsurface has been expanding where the +10C is at,hard to believe this wont hit +11C from DWKW.

I agree with what Flash said above.Just because its warm dont mean someone cant score this winter,In .I.E the strong 97=98 NINO the Cumberland got blasted by a wet snow storm around 20"@John would know more about that,i wasnt living in TN at that time https://www.weather.gov/ohx/19980203

Maybe this Nino has a mind of it own,its still mind boggling to see the PDO so negative,it should be the oppostite right now.maybe that will change in the couple months ahead Tn Valley in a typical strong NINO is dry unlike the 2015-16 Nino that was in a west based and central NINO unlike this year.We just as well we are in a WQBO and should stay that way this winter

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0976 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 212 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026 Areas affected...Mid-South Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 081812Z - 090000Z SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates will promote concerns for at least isolated areas of flash flooding going through the afternoon and early evening hours. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops across areas of northern MS, western TN and northwest AL in association with developing clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Additional activity is also noted farther east across the Cumberland Plateau region of eastern TN. The activity is initiating and expanding in coverage as a well-defined mid-level vort center over eastern AR drifts east into a very moist and unstable airmass pooled up across the broader Mid-South. Farther east, there is also the influence from terrain and differential heating boundaries. MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and PWs of 1.75 to 2+ inches are in place across the region. The strong boundary layer heating with solar insolation will continue to help drive increasing levels of instability over the next few hours, and this will couple with the evolution of smaller-scale outflow boundary activity for additional convection to develop and expand in coverage. Local orographic ascent near areas of elevation will also be a key player in driving more areas of convection. The morning 12Z RAOB soundings from KLZK, KBNA and KBMX confirm rather high WBZ heights and plenty of moisture extending through the vertical column. This will support high efficiency with this afternoon's convection with high rainfall rates that will be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms. The lack of effective bulk shear suggests the convective mode should mainly be pulse in nature, but there may be enough outflow boundary collisions and cold pool activity to facilitate some loosely organized multi-cell convection. This coupled with slow cell-motions and some cell-merger potential may help yield some localized 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals over the next several hours. This will drive a threat for at least isolated areas of flash flooding, with the more urbanized locations at greatest risk for impacts. Orrison ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG... MRX...OHX...PAH...

SE TN needs some rain,most of that part has been more scattered rains,its basically the only part of TN thats in a drought right now

Not a good day to start the State fair in Williamson CO...lol

If you actually compare the PDO compared to 82,it should have some decent resemblence unlike 97

I still like more or less the 97 NINO myself,as to if we get like 98 again is in question The 2015-16 started in actually 2014,it actually matured faster and was probably to some extent could have been even stronger than this year. The problem in 2015 was the Walker Circulation crapped out which looks to be fairly strong right now to some extent and you see strong trades coming off of SA,so you didnt all the WWB and DWKW like you see in 82-97 and even right now

Most of the BN on the NMME is probably being caused by an abundance of rain.But we'll see. In early 98 during a strong Nino the Cumberland had quite a storm caused by dynamical cooling,it was only suppose to be cool light rain,but they ended up with over 20" of wet snow..lol Maybe this winter will have its own analogs as strong as it seems to be ATM.Typically right now the PDO should be more + than - When the strong NINO in 98 started to decline into winter,during April was quite severe,that was the year Southern TN had the F5 tornado.Not saying that will happen agin,just pointing that out