jaxjagman

Pattern what CANSIPS is showing right now looks maybe similar to last winter.More NINA, weak NINA.I'm surprised it didnt show more blocking into the Hudson with the blocking its showing into around the four corners,but it still looks like a -NAO.Jan would seemingly right now be BN with the blocking its showing into the Western AK/.Bering Sea.Into Feb this blocking shifts into the Bering Sea,this seemingly could bring a early severe threat Think myself the warm SST'S into the Yellow Sea into the Sea of Japan and off the east coast of Japan are unprecedented to rely on analogs.I mean the warmest SST'S in this region was in 2023 during a strong NINO

No clue what happened here other than hail and wind,i thought some of the cells should have been tor warned sooner and a couple that should have been warned that wasnt,but thats just me.I know there was some large hail over 2" in Franklin and other places as well,we just got wind here,i didnt see no hail.I thought Morristown was suppose to do our weather here basically,sure they were busy also.

More than likely because they are updating AWIPS this week and couldnt reschedule.They gave the public advance notice because some things might be down at times along with NOAA radio the next few days

Some big hail ,the Centerville cell

Confirmed Tor headed towards maybe Duck River

Confirmed Tor headed towards maybe Duck River

Could be Monday as well,where ever the boundary sets up.GFS has been showing this for several runs now,but Tuesday looks better as you mentioned ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado.

That cell is trucking 70mph

Be interesting how the ENSO plays out into severe fall.I know some of the NMME'S has been showing a resurgent Nina.But by BN's maps and some of the NMME'S i'd think the GOM could get rather active from June -Aug,thats JMHO. https://www.bennollweather.com/climate-graphics

We got some P-sized hail for about 5 min then the non severe winds kicked in.Glad we didn't get 2" variety,i already had to replace two windshields from the winter storms.My wife tried to run the wind shield wiper in which was stuck in her car,it ended up cracking the window all the way across where the both wipers were,daughter poured hot water on the winshield,that didnt work out very well..lol Soon as the ULL gets kicked out around mid week next week it looks fairly unstable for a few days anyways right now..Nashville is already saying it's favorite words.Stay Tuned!!

Made it to 86 today,one degree F from tying the record

Looks messy everywhere,dont look like no big tor outbreak like twitter is telling the world..lol.Our area for most of us shows piss poor lapse rates no lift,etc.,etc to early to say next?

This winter will likely seemingly be warm,its rare to see back to back cold winters in our parts,we had plenty of chances to get a decent snow storm but nooooooooo..it happened down in or around the GOM,in which i feel really annoyed about,they got 2x,3x more snow than what we got here in a day than what we got in the season

Really like this set up for us.But we will see,just say there is a chance for now,When you start to see a ridge into Mongolia, ULL headed towards the Koreas and ridge into the Sea of Okhotsk into the Bearing Sea,this is normally severe in our parts,but there will always be some sort of a HP in the East that could very well cut off the moisture flux

Might be a day or two later but thats not a weak Upper Level Low going through East Asia the next day or two.With heights rising into Mongolia and Japan,i'd be surprised myself if the models dont start showing a more severe threat in the upcoming runs

Think we should have a decent chance of severe as we get around the 20-21 of April.Thats a strong ULL coming into from East China into the Koreas next weekend,all the models are showing this with rising heights into Mongolia and Japan,looks kinda meh until then,dont mean you cant get severe just looks meh

We had a tornado contest years ago here,I'd always pick Yazoo City in those parts when in storm mode,that town is a tornado magnet..lol

Be watching Auburn so im staying home.Some of the latest Mesoscales look better south of Memphis about 50-75 miles give or take,thats around mid afternoon,it dont look bad even where you are at later

I went to bed about 11AM Wed night before the storms here came trough and it was still 81.Today here we made it to 87 high,Nashville OBS says it was 86 so it missed the record of 87 in 1934

Big HAIL

NROT IS UP TO 2 now that cell headed towards Thompsons Station

That sure look like a tornado to me..lol

Centerville is showing rotation also now

Finally seeing rotation now