jaxjagman

JMO and could be wrong.but the MJO and the Euro the signal is getting disorted by a KW into NH,the CFS as of late is showing this along with the Euro and even the JMA shows this,the MJO is moving fast and should be into the IO as we get into Met spring,the map i showed up above even the AAM which was doing its cycles it flips once again the next couple days,it did the same around the 15th of Jan,it showed you a pattern change upcoming

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 225 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 15 2025 - 12Z Sun Feb 16 2025 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Confidence in a very impactful, life-threatening and significant heavy rainfall and flash flood event remains high beginning late tonight through Saturday night across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. While there is some subtle variability in the placement of the heaviest QPF (northwest to southeast), some clustering of the guidance happened this cycle for a swath of 3-6" from western TN through central Kentucky with a signal for isolated amounts up to 8". The environment will be quite unusual for mid-February. The combination of MUCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg and PWATs reaching around 1.5 inches has only rarely been observed in KY/TN at this time of year, and would be supportive of 1-2 inch per hour rain rates in the most organized and intense convection. A powerful southwesterly LLJ over 60 knots, oriented at an acute angle to the developing warm front, will favor backbuilding into the region of stronger instability. And the overall mean flow should favor some periods of training convective clusters or bands near the warm front and surface low track. All of these ingredients are fairly classic for impactful flash flooding cases, and significant impacts are anticipated in this one as well. Given all of this, a High Risk was introduced for portions of NW TN through central KY, where life-threatening and significant flooding is anticipated. Elsewhere, not many changes were made to the Moderate/Slight Risk areas, with some pulling back out of eastern KY and the central Appalachians where the trends for less QPF continues somewhat. However, don't want to downplay that area given its sensitivity and antecedent conditions as well.

Pretty impressive,especially if the models are wrong as much more convection being shown,could be brutal as much rain theyve gotten recently

Still think the MJO is having constructive interference.This whole pattern is quite like what we seen in Mid Jan.I still think shortly after Met spring starts it should get quite active once again,but we should see several days of BN temps upcoming

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Saturday morning to the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. As this trough becomes negatively tilted after 00Z, the surface low will rapidly deepen by 10+ mb as it moves from central Arkansas to northeast Ohio. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low and sharpen through the evening before advancing east during the late evening and into the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An expansive region of strengthening low-level flow will advance a broad warm sector northward across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning. North of this warm front within a 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms are expected. Weak instability and shear should result in mostly sub-severe storms, but isolated large hail may be possible. Expect persistent thunderstorm activity along the diffuse cold front from far East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the morning to early afternoon with mostly sub-severe storms. However, richer theta-e will interact with the frontal zone by mid-to-late afternoon which should result in deeper, more robust updrafts. In addition, stronger mid-level flow will start to overspread the warm sector, promoting stronger deep-layer shear. Supercells are anticipated from southeast Arkansas to southwest Tennessee by this time with a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. However, this window of more discrete storm mode will likely be fairly limited as the cold front starts to surge east around 00Z and a squall line develops. The environment ahead of this squall line will remain favorable for severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes through the evening. Eventually this squall line will encounter weaker instability across central/eastern Tennessee and Alabama and the severe weather threat will likely start to wane. One exception may be across far southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and into the Florida Panhandle. After 06Z, some influence of the approaching mid-level vorticity maximum could result in more robust convection across this region where greater instability will remain. The low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across the region during this timeframe with STP values peaking perhaps around 2 to 3. 12Z CAM guidance suggests the potential for some pre-frontal development late in the period, but they are not overly strong at this time. If more robust pre-frontal storms become likely, in addition to the QLCS threat associated with the squall line, greater tornado probabilities could be needed across this area. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025

Pattern is similar to our cold spell back into Jan,wont be as cold but still BN.Think the MJO is still progressing and the signal by most models want to mute it back or close into the COD,think the reason is a KW in the NH/Africa,as we get closer to then end of wk3.When we got cold into Jan the SOI was around -20+ and the AAM albeit was into the COD it was still +ve,the AAM IMHO showed the flip to a crappie upcoming pattern around the 14th of Jan. 14 Feb 2025 1011.54 1009.30 -12.01 13.41 9.01 13 Feb 2025 1012.66 1009.05 -5.43 13.68 9.22 12 Feb 2025 1013.17 1008.40 0.14 13.25 9.32 11 Feb 2025 1012.74 1006.95 5.04 12.61 9.45 10 Feb 2025 1012.30 1004.05 16.86 11.75 9.56 9 Feb 2025 1012.49 1001.90 28.10 10.48 9.53 8 Feb 2025 1011.98 1001.55 27.33 9.08 9.27 7 Feb 2025 1013.14 1001.60 32.66 8.01 9.02 6 Feb 2025 1012.63 1001.30 31.65 6.80 8.63 5 Feb 2025 1011.64 1001.80 24.50 5.85 8.12 4 Feb 2025 1011.76 1003.20 18.35 5.21 7.72

I think for the most part we have a silent agreement with winter months.It's mainly winter talk and not severe,alot of people would rather see snow than severe other than it night be a severe pattern we use the severe threats in the severe thread all year.You can post there and ask questions or add on if you like.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Saturday... Model guidance continues to forecast a strong upper-level trough moving through the southern Plains and into the Southeast. Some modest slowing of the trough has been noted, however. The trough will promote the deepening of the surface low in the ArkLaTex vicinity during the afternoon with further deepening expected into the evening as it generally progresses north-northeastward within the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Moisture return will have begun Friday evening and will continue Saturday. Guidance shows a consistent signal for mid 60s F dewpoints extending into much of Louisiana/Mississippi, and Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible closer to the Gulf Coast. Very strong wind fields are anticipated throughout the troposphere. Shear will be strong and, despite more modest mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will be more than adequate for severe storms. The current expectation is for warm advection precipitation to be ongoing early in the period and for it not to make much, if any, southward progress until the late afternoon. A Pacific front in East Texas/Sabine Valley into the ArkLaTex may be the initial zone for stronger convective development. By the late afternoon onward, the cold front will begin to surge south and east. The low-level jet should remain strong into the afternoon and then increase to 50-70 kts during the evening. As the cold front surges, shear vectors will acquire a greater cross-boundary component. This strongly forced line will be capable of scattered to widespread damaging winds along with the threat for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. One of the main questions that remain will be the degree of the tornado threat, which would increase with any discrete activity ahead of the cold front. Given the weak capping and strong forcing, pre-frontal discrete storms are plausible. The ECMWF shows some hint of this from central Louisiana into adjacent Mississippi. The eastern and northern extent of the greatest severe threat are also in question, but the intense low-level jet could produce severe-caliber gusts even with relatively shallow convection. The overall pattern, along with signals in both deterministic and ML guidance, suggest 30% severe probabilities are warranted for Saturday.

Dacula dont maintain it anymore,but his site still is very useful https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php#

Think we are fixing to have lift-off into March.The AAM should /possibly go back to positive for a brief time then it should/could go back to negative.The convection the CFS is showing is quite similar to the last couple cycles of the MJO,this should also even strenghten NINA into spring

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1203 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 - Scattered light rain showers through 9 PM tonight. - Very active weather pattern over the next week, with several chances for rain across Middle TN, but no winter or severe weather expected at this time. - Rises on area creeks and rivers will become possible by next weekend, with 5 to 7 inches of rain forecast through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 The persistent zonal flow aloft continues today, and this currently coincides with northeasterly surface winds across the Tennessee Valley thanks to high pressure to our north. This setup is favoring isentropic ascent across the region as a frontal surface aloft resides across the I-40 corridor. As such, our clouds and northeasterly flow are keeping temperatures on the cool side, and we have light rain showers emanating from the west. I`ve increased PoPs across Middle Tennessee through ~9 PM despite what will be very little accumulation. A few sleet pellets will be possible as well, but no impacts are expected. It looks to be another cold night tonight with lows in the 30s, after moisture exits to our east. We`re forecast to warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s tomorrow, with help of a little sunshine breaking through in the afternoon. We appear to remain dry tomorrow, but an elongated disturbance aloft will begin to stretch from the Southern Plains toward the Tennessee Valley tomorrow night into Tuesday morning. This system will lead to a widespread soaking of rain as significant moisture transport occurs aloft, overrunning a surface front just to our south. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 Rain chances will continue for beginning of the long-term, associated with the system in the area on Tuesday, described above. Flow aloft will become more southwesterly across the region as well. Thus, after a brief reprieve from rain Wednesday morning, a subsequent disturbance is forecast to move into the region Wednesday afternoon as the parade of storm systems across the eastern CONUS continues. Rain chances are quite high once again, and another soaking of rainfall is expected into early Thursday morning. Our latest storm total rainfall from Tue/Wed is generally 2-4", which is doable considering we aren`t expecting any stronger convection which would lead to higher rainfall rates. In fact, highest rainfall amounts are south of I-40 which would benefit ongoing drought in the region. Also, we still expect to stay above freezing throughout this period, so we are not forecasting any wintry precipitation. This appears to mainly impact our friends in KY. For the most part we`ll remain situated between winter weather to our north, and stormy weather to our south. Mid- to upper-level flow will remain quasi-zonal configuration toward the latter part of the period, after a shortwave departs to our east on Friday. By this weekend, medium-range guidance continues to suggest a notable disturbance to eject across the Southern Plains, approaching our region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is currently depicted to contain a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak and substantial height falls which will contribute to cyclogenesis in the Tennessee Valley. All things considered, we`ll have another widespread soaking of rain, and there`s potential for thunderstorms as well. Given the parade of storms throughout the week, this system could tip the scales into some flooding issues across Middle Tennessee which we will continue to monitor and message. Specifics from there are still to be sorted out, including any stronger storm potential. At this time we`re not advertising any, but this will certainly be a more dynamic system. Stay tuned to the forecast.

Not sure,i always use the Koreas for us,Japan is basically the east coast and East China is basically west of us.But there is also other teleconnection that wont correlate 1:1.But the maps i show is a trough into Mongolia,which could be a -PNA and heights built up into East China which could possibly be a ridge into the Southern Plains and then you look at the EPS and its very similar.I'm just using these maps as a example +8 days

JMO,but the Euro since fall when the MJO gets into the NH the Euro wants to kill the signal and bring back into the COD.It seems to me the Euro is having issues with Kelvin and Rossby waves into the NH into the IO,The MJO shouldnt be getting hung up like the Euro shows, it seems to have a bias of doing this as of late

Gonna stick with the CFS,its done well than other models the last couple cycles of the MJO,its once again seeing the MJO get enhanced into the NH+Africa,i wouldnt be surprised to see the IO signal get stronger in the upcoming days

https://www.wkrn.com/weather-headlines/feb-4th-most-active-tornado-month/

It was already confirmed EF-2

https://x.com/i/status/1887699363704582428

Looks like its going to hit Sunbright if it holds

Could be a cell south of that trying to go

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 4 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kentucky Northeast Tennessee Extreme Southwest Virginia * Effective this Thursday night from 730 PM until Midnight EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered intense storms will track southeastward across the watch area for the next few hours, capable of hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Knoxville TN to 30 miles north northeast of Hot Springs NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

Could be dying now,running into the mountains

Looks better now ,might be headed towards Sunbright

Most models weren't showing a strong inversion until recently,might say chalk one up for the GFS.

Mean while in Japan https://english.news.cn/20250204/8bdc664a92474df2829e2ee02cba7d7f/c.html#:~:text=TOKYO%2C Feb. 4 (Xinhua,snow depth of 1.2 meters.

National Weather Service Nashville TN 1156 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1155 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 - 70-90% chance for rain Wednesday PM into Thursday, with a 30-40% chance for thunderstorms. Marginal risk for severe storms. - Showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend. - Cooler temperatures next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 A cold front was dropping southward very slowly across the Mid State today. On the cool side of the boundary, low clouds were accompanied by areas of fog and drizzle, particularly north and northwest of Nashville where temperatures were in the 40s. Meanwhile, our southeast areas from Crossville to Manchester had mainly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower 60s. The front will continue to settle southward through tonight with mainly cloudy skies area-wide and lows in the 40s. Slight warm advection over the boundary will begin late tonight, possibly resulting in a few light showers. For Wednesday through Wednesday night, warm advection will increase as northern and southern stream waves come our way in zonal flow and a surface low pressure system develops over the plains. The effects of the warm front will come mostly late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers will become widespread and there will be embedded thunderstorms. Regarding severe storm potential, we are under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5). The risk outline is mainly across the north half of Middle Tennessee for Wednesday evening. By late Wednesday, models are in good agreement with strong deep layer shear of 40-55KT area- wide along with ML capes of 300-500 J/kg. Lapse rates are unimpressive, but the bigger issue will be limited surface based instability under extensive pre-existing cloud cover. There will be a modest push northward of 60+ dew points, but the main action appears to be aloft. This means we may see a few cells with rotation, but low potential for actual severe wx. Even with all the limitations, mention of the severe risk seems reasonable given the conditional potential- meaning IF any strong cells form and become surface based, strong wind gusts will be possible and unfortunately, a tornado cannot be ruled out given the strongly curved hodographs. Later models may offer better insight and allow us to either step up or back off on the potential. Otherwise, soaking rainfall Wednesday PM through Thursday will result in one half to 1 inch of rain area-wide. Temperatures will stay warmer than normal with 60s to lower 70s for highs and lows Wednesday night in the 50s to lower 60s. &&