jaxjagman

You can issue a WSW outside the window,but i think most mets frown on it,who ever issued it must feel pretty comfident

Maybe we can score on the next system,the Euro would bring a warm nose to us tho with the LP crossing into N/Al.the GFS shows more of a inverted trough down into Cen Al.everyone would benfit from the GFS into Tn

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 On Sunday, that upper low over the Great Lakes will reinforce cold air over our region and only allow for high temps to get into the 20s and 30s. A weaker trough will allow for a stationary boundary to linger over the mid state for the start of next week, allowing for a decent shot at some good snowfall accumulations. Models continue to waver and dont increase confidence at all with snow amounts as latest ensembles have shifted the snow axis ~100 miles to the southeast, but, the boundary, isentropic lift, and other synoptic factors are starting to point to the potential for the mid state to see accumulating snow. Ensembles show a few members at higher end amounts, dragging the mean higher, but there has been a slight uptrend in forecasted snow amounts since the previous run. We will see what the next runs have and hopefully show some consistency to increase confidence on location and magnitude of snow. The GFS/NAM show decent isentropic lift Sunday night through the day Monday, with some convergence as well as Q vector convergence hinting at pockets of banded snow potential during the day Monday. Soundings show deep saturation in the low levels just a little warmer than the DGZ, but still enough lift for good snowfall potential. GFS and its ensemble suite showing the highest potential for snowfall right now compared to other models, likely due to stronger synoptic forcing, frontogenesis, and a little more surface moisture. We will see if that holds. The one thing that has remained consistent is the cold temperatures, so unlike other snow events, this event will start and finish as snow across the area, which will further support accumulating snow. Temperatures next week are already going to struggle to get above freezing until Thursday, but any higher snowfall amounts will result in low temperatures dropping further than forecasted. Right now, the coldest night will be Tuesday night, having lows in the single digits and wind chills in the single digits below zero. Light snow looks to continue Tuesday and may result in some additional light accumulation, but at the very least, a cloudy day will prevent the sun from showing up during the day. The sun should return Wednesday with above freezing high temps Thursday. Unfortunately another trough will swing in Friday, bringing rain and snow potential along with colder temps into next weekend.

I was just glancing at the news and they said a house was hit by lightning in Gallatin

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Always could be wrong,it kills it but rebuilds it after again

GFS is the only model that kills the NW,artic air pulls out to quick,in MHO its a outlier that run

be nice if the CMC would break its losing streak

It would be a bummer if we dont get much of anything as active as this pattern has been as of late

.LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 So we get beyond tomorrow, and again, let`s not look past tomorrow, as the wind threat is likely to cause significant impacts, but then we have to start looking at the snow potential Sunday night into the first half of the week. Models are still not in great agreement regarding how this is going to unfold. I think I can say, we`re still very confident it`s going to snow Sunday night. Placement of the highest amounts still look like they are going to be along and north of I-40, especially in the Land Between the Lakes area. However, now the latest suite of models wants to stretch out the snow potential from not just Sunday night, but into Monday and Tuesday, as well. Sunday night into Monday would have the higher totals, but a secondary wave could bring additional snow to the area, especially east of I-65 on Tuesday. On the whole, the probability of exceeding 1 inch anywhere in Middle TN is something like 60-80% across most of the area. But as we start talking about the potential for anyone getting 3 inches or more (Winter Storm Warning criteria), now we`re falling into the 30-40% category and that`s been relatively consistent over the last couple of days. Hopefully by Saturday, we`ll have a better grasp on how things are looking for Sunday night into Monday. Now the cold. As the snow comes to an end, a CP airmass will drive into the mid-south and TN Valley. This is going to bring sub- freezing temperatures to the area for an extended period of time. Teens and single digits will be pretty common every morning next week, with Tuesday and Wednesday mornings looking the coldest. Low to mid single digits are still progged. Much like Sunday after the winds die down and colder air enters the picture, keeping an eye on vulnerable populations is going to be imperative mid-week as afternoon highs under 32 degrees look probable.

ooops,left that out

National Weather Service Nashville TN 210 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 If you stepped outside, you`d think it was March. 50s across the board this afternoon and with plenty of sun and a little breeze, I think we`ve been able to mix down some of the dry air we saw in this morning`s 12Z OHX sounding. Dew points have struggled to get to 30 degrees across the northern 2/3 of the mid-state. In any event, if you haven`t been able to get out and enjoy today, give `er a try. Things will go downhill quickly starting tonight. By midnight tonight, a very sharp trough over the center of the country will develop a surface low near Arklatex that is expected to bomb out as it moves into the Ohio Valley tomorrow afternoon. This is going to cause a multitude of issues across the region, from severe weather to extremely strong gradient winds. Let`s start with the gradient winds, because in my estimation, this is going to cause the biggest problems. Winds will start to ramp up by midnight tonight, especially for our counties west of I-65. By sunrise, as our Wind Advisory goes into affect, southeast gusts of 30-45 mph will likely be occurring across the whole area. Peak gust time looks to be in the noon to 3 pm time frame. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph with occasional gusts to 55 mph are going to be possible. Much discussion was had about the potential for issuing a High Wind Warning, however, in coordination with most surrounding offices, we`ve held off on issuing that product and stuck with a very high-end Wind Advisory. In any event, these winds are going to cause downed trees and scattered power outages across Middle TN. The stink about this is the cold air that filters in behind the system. It`s not the coldest of what we`re going to see in the next 4-6 days, but if you don`t have power, it`s going to feel like it. Be sure to pay extra special attention to vulnerable populations tomorrow. On top of the gradient winds, there is at least a low-end severe weather threat. We talked about this yesterday and honestly, not much has changed. Our warm sector GREATLY struggles to develop tomorrow morning with dew points barely reaching 50 degrees. This is going to keep CAPE values at 100 J/Kg or lower. Now, if we do end up getting a bigger push of dew points, then yes, the severe threat will go up -- and with helicity values where they are, we can`t ignore the possibility of an isolated spin-up. The more likely scenario is the potential for any convection to enhance the straight line wind threat that we already have, even outside thunderstorms. Look for a weak line of convection to start moving across the TN River mid-morning tomorrow and it should exit the Plateau around 3-5 pm in the afternoon. Strap in. We`re not done yet.

Why you should not trust anything especially next week To many moving parts and the storm itself isnt even on the west coast yet

Until the models can figure out the shortwave troughs,we'll continue to see changes each run

Was looking at that also,impressive what the GFS is showing,gonna make the plumbers happy if its right

Me too,just look at the MJO starting back Nov 25 with the CHI map i posted,we saw the strong Pac Jet coming off Asia,it shouldn't be as strong right now but its still coming by the models

To add onto to this the MJO does a loop basically,this is from a strong Kelvin wave moving across Africa today and will enhance the MJO signal into the western IO

I know,but where is the MJO actually gonna be at?Seems to me it has the potential as it goes into the Maritime to start heading back towards the COD with the possibility of going back into the NH much faster than the Euro is showing

GFS looks like the Southern TN,North Alabama ice storm in 1996 where they lost power for weeks

We didnt even get a sprinkle

lol..yall hit the gold mine

I dont think Nino is going to matter to much going forward,its still fairly strong right now