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  1. Topic started to follow whether or not NYC can muster it's first measurable snow since December 17. Other parts of the forum had some general snow on the 3rd. Lots of debate on what will happen, or not, so we might as well have some fun tracking it and keep the 25-26th and beyond out of this topic. First measurable snowfall (near climo) POSSIBLE between Tue night and Thursday night. Two opportunities and both could be suppressed/dried out in northerly flow. Also could be too warm to stick in NYC if snow were to occur, and especially if it occurs during the daylight hours. These are probably minimal impact events, if any. Guidance probabilities are possibly conservative for short periods of light snow in a 12 hour period, especially with currently expected melted qpf under 0.10. Opportunities are associated with an esewd moving shortwave from the Great Lakes to new England early Wednesday and another esewd moving short wave from the Great Lakes late Thursday. Climo snowfall for this during the 'climatologically' coldest winter average temps in NYC: CP 0.2-0.3; POU 0.4.-0.5". Short events. As of this 1/15 412PM start, probably under 8 hours total, possibly less than 1 hour in parts of the area? I would hope we can muster half an inch between these two short wave passages in part of our NYC forum, be it se NYS, CT, e LI or maybe we get lucky for much of our forum? I'll be glad to adjust this topic with any interesting information that is added from our group and of course if the models somehow improve our chances which right now, per 12z/15 (Friday) NWS MOS and WPC extended, are less than 50%.