jaxjagman

Find out in a few days.The CFS continues to show possibly a ERW into the IO down the road,its not backed down any.This should/could stall out the MJO signal or even make it stronger into the IO.Dunno,surely could change

Think this is could be from a KW.The MJO looks to still be headed into the NH but dives into the COD as the signal weakens.But what most models keep showing it should strenghten as it heads towards Africa and the IO at this time.Least thats my what i believe.

But they've been wrong many times and the public dont understand in winter time strorms.Its hard to forecast the magnitude of artic air in our parts because the models have notoriously been wrong in past storms.I really dont blame them...jmho

.LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 145 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 By Thursday night, a quick-hitting clipper system will push through across the Ohio River Valley. As of now, it appears the only influence we`ll feel from it will be an increase in clouds Thursday night through Friday and a drop in temperatures. There is a low possibility that a few snow showers could pass through our extreme northeastern counties Friday morning, but nothing of any consequence. Ensembles do not currently favor that outcome, thus left mention of any precip out of the forecast for now. This system will usher is the first real Arctic air of our upcoming series of cold blasts; lows Friday night will dip as low as 14 degrees along the Plateau and 20-25 degrees elsewhere across Middle TN. The biggest question mark of this forecast package continues to be the messy system that moves in during the Sunday afternoon/Monday morning timeframe. Confidence in exact precip type and amount remains low, but confidence in precip occuring during this timeframe is high. After analyzing the wet-bulb temperature profile on a few soundings, the current window for any freezing precip looks to be small, at least from looking at the GFS and GEFS ensemble members. It`s important to note here that there is a large spread in the ensembles of what the temperature at the surface will be on Sunday. Also realize that these outcomes will likely change plenty more times between now and then, so take whatever you see with a grain of salt. Whatever precip we do get will stay with us through the majority of the day Monday, coming to an end from west to east. After this system, conditions look to remain dry through at least Thursday, but temperatures will be bitterly cold through the week with highs barely near freezing and overnight lows in the teens to low 20s. The "warmest" day of the week currently looks to be Monday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Reminds me of the DGEX,we use to see this all the time

That some insane cold by the GFS,its almost freezing down into Cuba..lmao

YEP,i was thinking the same thing

All time low in Nashville is -17

Yeah the timing is still off by the GFS,its looks slower and seemingly colder air presses in,this still could change,both could still be wrong

Not sure,the Euro today is showing a LLJ 60-70KTS,wouldnt rule out thunder

nah,its cutting through Tn

HP to the north looks stronger

GFS isnt giving up

1985,TOP ANALOG,dont mean it will be that way today,tomorrow ,next day,just for fun went back to look. We didnt really have much of a thaw until the 3rd week of Feb,some moderation yes.I got to run so have to make this fast so put some charts up

Right now to me the GFS is the outlier,most of all the models seem to take the LP through Tn,GFS is suppressed down south,still anyone could be right,going through Tn would bring with it the warm nose,then you could only hope for wrap around

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_North_American_cold_wave

I'm just saying when you see the Rex block into the Hudson this pulls the trough axis further west,when its more east of Greenland or for that matter even over Greenland the trough axis is further east,,i shouldnt have said its not as cold,its still cold,thats what i'm seeing

GFS dont look as cold,one reason should be where the blocking is around Greenland,it dont show it into the Hudson this go around run

Be kinda shocked if we dont get a sytem somewhere as active as East Asia is

I dunno,surely could be wrong but the MJO getting into Africa in a few days,still seems to me its gonna hit a ERW maybe and stall out into the IO,this is what the CFS is showing which in turn is causing destructive interference with the MJO signal,think the EMON is showing this today because it kills the signal for days in the heart of the COD

The Euro would be quite impressive with a long stretch of days even without temps moderating above freezing,we dont see that to often here.Even at the end of the run it shows a +PNA/-AO

That would be depressing to see more snow off the Florida coast than what we would get,what the GFS shows,but its still to far out to really believe

GEFS doesnt show the blocking the Euro has.Euro looks pretty nice into Greenland, Baffin into the Hudson Strait.Who knows who will be right