jaxjagman

I dont see how a dry slot would effect us if the storm formed into a trowel not the track of the storm forecasted

Put with,edited it to without Stove we need his mojo

Its not a winter storm without Stove

Nashville disco LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2025 The story for this forecast continues to be the snow potential for Friday. Brief ridging on Thursday ahead of the next trough will warm temps slightly, but still going to remain with cooler temps and highs staying in the 30s. Snow is expected to begin in the west Friday morning with the trough over the Plains working its way east. Peak snowfall looks to be mid morning through the afternoon across most of the mid state, and into the evening to early overnight hours for the Plateau. This will be a quick hit of snow, but right now, models are pretty consistent showing 1 to 4 inches of snow depending on which model you are looking at. The GFS and its ensembles are the most aggressive with snow, and on the higher end of amounts thanks to a stronger trough, and near perfect isentropic lift during the day Friday. Decent Q-vector convergence and upper level support stays around through the day, so the GFS is fully onboard with heavy snow. The ECMWF, its ensembles, and the NAM are still showing snow, but not as aggressive as the GFS/GEFS. Still, broad ensemble consensus is 1 to 4 inches with the latest forecasts for Friday, and the most likely scenario is 2-4 inches area wide. If models start leaning towards the GFS solutions, that will go up, but going the other direction, amounts will go down slightly. Probability of 2 inches or more is roughly 50 to 70 percent area wide. Temps will struggle to get above freezing Saturday, but ridging tries to build in Sunday so that will help with melting snow. For the most part, the remainder of the forecast looks dry, with some light snow possible in the north Monday but agreement and confidence is low. Temps dont look to warm up much next week with highs in the 30s/low 40s and lows in the teens/20s.

Quite a few times when you see the LP suppressed down into Mobile Bay , Big Bend these are big winter storms in our Southern Parts,generally QPFS usually leaves us with just light snow here,id feel pretty good if i was around the TN/AL line

Look at the Vort,definite a better run that time compared the the 0Z

We like live in another world for snow,get a unexpected warm nose or even convection down south turns the faucet off

Parts down south would be a disaster by the GFS,SN,IP,ZR,yuck

You can look at the thermals and see why there is more snow with the CMC.Much colder better ratios.Maybe it will be right,but it still has a cold bias

Hopefully the strays that cut into Tn isnt right

Icon,GFS,AND CMC dont flatten the Vort out like the Euro does.Euro is right its gonna cut into the QPFS,who knows right now whos gonna be right

Need that piece of energy to phase like the GFS shows,Euro dont its around that area where the point is to the NE

CFS has been showing this for several days.A Rossby Wave will get into the IO and slow the progression into the IO and potentially show a stronger signal into the IO

Dont wanna see that neutral tilt,bringing in the LLJ unlike the Euro shows right now

Gfs has more of a neutral tilted trough that is brutal with WAA,Euro is more positive much less WAA right now,least we have a chance ,the next storm

If the CFS is anywhere right the MJO signal should strenghten into the IO and possibly even stall out from a ERW after that towards the end of its showing a Kelvin Wave.Kelvin Waves can cause destructive interference with the MJO signal and it could actually be stronger than what the Euro maps shows above into the Maritime and not go back into the COD

I still think JMA does the best for what ever reason if you are looking at the RMM's..JMHO

Nice its showing what the CFS has been showing for several days,it finally flipped

This is one reason why you should use the ensembles in the long range.Both the Euro and GFS showed this cut-off around the BAJAS last night,the Euro phased the system and it totally destroyed the good PNA,the ensembles didnt show this by the GEFS or EPS

Shouldnt have any impact on us.That's a strong LLJ 55-65 KTS coming through Tn,thats a big warm nose

Should still be cold.Long range i'd surely stick with the ensembles