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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 So we get beyond tomorrow, and again, let`s not look past tomorrow, as the wind threat is likely to cause significant impacts, but then we have to start looking at the snow potential Sunday night into the first half of the week. Models are still not in great agreement regarding how this is going to unfold. I think I can say, we`re still very confident it`s going to snow Sunday night. Placement of the highest amounts still look like they are going to be along and north of I-40, especially in the Land Between the Lakes area. However, now the latest suite of models wants to stretch out the snow potential from not just Sunday night, but into Monday and Tuesday, as well. Sunday night into Monday would have the higher totals, but a secondary wave could bring additional snow to the area, especially east of I-65 on Tuesday. On the whole, the probability of exceeding 1 inch anywhere in Middle TN is something like 60-80% across most of the area. But as we start talking about the potential for anyone getting 3 inches or more (Winter Storm Warning criteria), now we`re falling into the 30-40% category and that`s been relatively consistent over the last couple of days. Hopefully by Saturday, we`ll have a better grasp on how things are looking for Sunday night into Monday. Now the cold. As the snow comes to an end, a CP airmass will drive into the mid-south and TN Valley. This is going to bring sub- freezing temperatures to the area for an extended period of time. Teens and single digits will be pretty common every morning next week, with Tuesday and Wednesday mornings looking the coldest. Low to mid single digits are still progged. Much like Sunday after the winds die down and colder air enters the picture, keeping an eye on vulnerable populations is going to be imperative mid-week as afternoon highs under 32 degrees look probable.
  2. jaxjagman
    ooops,left that out
  3. jaxjagman
    National Weather Service Nashville TN 210 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 If you stepped outside, you`d think it was March. 50s across the board this afternoon and with plenty of sun and a little breeze, I think we`ve been able to mix down some of the dry air we saw in this morning`s 12Z OHX sounding. Dew points have struggled to get to 30 degrees across the northern 2/3 of the mid-state. In any event, if you haven`t been able to get out and enjoy today, give `er a try. Things will go downhill quickly starting tonight. By midnight tonight, a very sharp trough over the center of the country will develop a surface low near Arklatex that is expected to bomb out as it moves into the Ohio Valley tomorrow afternoon. This is going to cause a multitude of issues across the region, from severe weather to extremely strong gradient winds. Let`s start with the gradient winds, because in my estimation, this is going to cause the biggest problems. Winds will start to ramp up by midnight tonight, especially for our counties west of I-65. By sunrise, as our Wind Advisory goes into affect, southeast gusts of 30-45 mph will likely be occurring across the whole area. Peak gust time looks to be in the noon to 3 pm time frame. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph with occasional gusts to 55 mph are going to be possible. Much discussion was had about the potential for issuing a High Wind Warning, however, in coordination with most surrounding offices, we`ve held off on issuing that product and stuck with a very high-end Wind Advisory. In any event, these winds are going to cause downed trees and scattered power outages across Middle TN. The stink about this is the cold air that filters in behind the system. It`s not the coldest of what we`re going to see in the next 4-6 days, but if you don`t have power, it`s going to feel like it. Be sure to pay extra special attention to vulnerable populations tomorrow. On top of the gradient winds, there is at least a low-end severe weather threat. We talked about this yesterday and honestly, not much has changed. Our warm sector GREATLY struggles to develop tomorrow morning with dew points barely reaching 50 degrees. This is going to keep CAPE values at 100 J/Kg or lower. Now, if we do end up getting a bigger push of dew points, then yes, the severe threat will go up -- and with helicity values where they are, we can`t ignore the possibility of an isolated spin-up. The more likely scenario is the potential for any convection to enhance the straight line wind threat that we already have, even outside thunderstorms. Look for a weak line of convection to start moving across the TN River mid-morning tomorrow and it should exit the Plateau around 3-5 pm in the afternoon. Strap in. We`re not done yet.
  4. jaxjagman
    Why you should not trust anything especially next week To many moving parts and the storm itself isnt even on the west coast yet
  5. jaxjagman
    Until the models can figure out the shortwave troughs,we'll continue to see changes each run
  6. jaxjagman
    Was looking at that also,impressive what the GFS is showing,gonna make the plumbers happy if its right
  7. jaxjagman
    Me too,just look at the MJO starting back Nov 25 with the CHI map i posted,we saw the strong Pac Jet coming off Asia,it shouldn't be as strong right now but its still coming by the models
  8. jaxjagman
    To add onto to this the MJO does a loop basically,this is from a strong Kelvin wave moving across Africa today and will enhance the MJO signal into the western IO
  9. jaxjagman
    I know,but where is the MJO actually gonna be at?Seems to me it has the potential as it goes into the Maritime to start heading back towards the COD with the possibility of going back into the NH much faster than the Euro is showing
  10. jaxjagman
    GFS looks like the Southern TN,North Alabama ice storm in 1996 where they lost power for weeks
  11. jaxjagman
  12. jaxjagman
    We didnt even get a sprinkle
  13. jaxjagman
    lol..yall hit the gold mine
  14. jaxjagman
    I dont think Nino is going to matter to much going forward,its still fairly strong right now
  15. jaxjagman
    Nah,we're good and no worries,I knew what you meant
  16. jaxjagman
    Yeah i know,i agree with you.I'm hoping it dont myself,almost showing shades of like 2020-21 sorta
  17. jaxjagman
    Finally updated today it looked good yesterday but not today
  18. jaxjagman
    hopefully we see our first snow of the year here .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1240 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 A slow-moving closed upper-level low will be the main feature to watch through the extended. On Wednesday, this low slowly tracks southeastward through Missouri, and by late Wednesday night, shower activity may begin to develop across far northwest portions of our area. Showers spread eastward through Middle TN through the day on Thursday, and then likely become focused across the east by early Friday. This is a cold system so temperatures will fall with its arrival which of course has an impact on our precipitation type. With temperatures in the low to mid-30`s to start the day Thursday, precipitation will likely begin as a rain- snow mix before changing to primarily rain as temperatures warm into the 40`s. A changeover back to snow or a rain-snow mix would then be favored Thursday night and into Friday morning as temperatures fall again. As far as accumulations go, at this time it`s still not looking like anything to get too excited about. Model guidance is in disagreement about how far south the upper-level low will manage to track. The GFS and its ensembles in particular track a stronger, colder closed low directly overhead, and as such, have greater probabilities of accumulating snow. It`s definitely something to watch to see if that trend persists, but for now, am leaning towards the majority of guidance which doesn`t dig the low quite as far south. Rain and snow showers come to an end Friday as the closed low finally exits. By the end, best probabilities of accumulating snow will be along the Cumberland Plateau. Some locations in Fentress/Cumberland counties may receive accumulations near a half inch.
  19. jaxjagman
    https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1739373353310265673/photo/1
  20. jaxjagman
    Mr,Bob dont speak much these days huh...lol...Merry Christmas to everyone !!
  21. jaxjagman
    Merry Christmas Mr.Bob,i see you lurking
  22. jaxjagman
    https://twitter.com/jfd118/status/1739256578346299588/photo/2
  23. jaxjagman
    Should be possibly a cold front around New Years day as a trough is going through East Asia today but the NAO looks +ive generally cold chasing rain right now look.Still looks like a -ve NAO/AO as we head towards wk 2 of Jan but the PNA is more neutral right now by the GEFS
  24. jaxjagman
    The SOI has crashed the last couple days 23 Dec 2023 1006.15 1009.45 -36.43 -2.68 -6.55 22 Dec 2023 1006.81 1009.00 -30.67 -2.01 -6.23 21 Dec 2023 1008.66 1007.70 -14.32 -1.59 -6.04 20 Dec 2023 1009.98 1006.70 -2.28 -1.72 -6.09 19 Dec 2023 1010.66 1006.85 0.47 -1.91 -6.36 18 Dec 2023 1010.45 1006.60 0.67 -1.87 -6.65 17 Dec 2023 1011.50 1006.35 7.42 -1.79 -6.95 16 Dec 2023 1011.48 1005.45 11.99 -2.04 -7.25 15 Dec 2023 1010.25 1005.75 4.05 -2.78 -7.56 By the looks of this afternoons GEFS it shows a ridge in East Asia around the New Year then followed by troughs.East Asia should turn cold again like several days ago but this time as it turns cold its showing better teleconnections for us.When it got cold in East Asia several days ago we was dealing with a +ve NAO/AO this time its quite opposite with a more -ve NAO/AO.But if everything holds we should see a ridge in the east into the first week of Jan then a chance to be colder as we get into wk2
  25. jaxjagman
    https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1738191160076554407/photo/1
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