jaxjagman

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 940 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will likely move into Tennessee tonight. Embedded supercells and line-embedded mesovortices will potentially be capable of tornadoes and severe gusts. The environment will potentially support the risk for strong tornadoes, in addition to swaths of severe gusts.

Per Rap, STP is now 6.9 around into portions of Mid Tn

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Illinois Western Kentucky East-Central and Southeast Missouri Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 75 mph likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop across the watch area through this evening. Several tornadoes are likely, some of which are expected to be intense. Very large hail is also likely, along with the risk for potentially significant damaging wind gusts.

Mesoscale Discussion 0984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of Middle into eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262042Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of middle into eastern Tennessee. Large hail is becoming the main concern as storms become more supercellular through the afternoon. A couple of tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. Either a new WW issuance or local expansions of existing watches are needed. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has gradually transitioned to a more supercellular mode over the past couple of hours, with a dominant supercell recently producing severe hail. Other supercells are beginning to form in the warm sector as well, including in spots where the airmass remains pristine. Given ample buoyancy/shear and the more cellular mode, severe hail will become the main threat over Middle into eastern TN over the next few hours, though a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts are still possible. As such, either a new WW issuance or expansion of existing watches is needed to address the present severe weather scenario.

Lots of supercells seem to popping up in East Tn

Tornado warn Rockwood

Moderate risk for tonight now Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat.

Been some rotation with that hook towards Frankin right now,just isnt tighten up right now

Should have said west of Fairview

Could be some rotation starting east of Fairview

yes

Not sure i'd call it a bust.The models never did show much of any low level shear until it starts to ramp up later on into Sunday,there never seemed to be a tornado threat until Sunday,yeah you could maybe say that yesterday as there was a pretty decent cap from MO Valley into the Mid South but even that the models showed this,just wasnt as strong,plus the models showed the cap breaking up into the early morning hours today and was a great light show before dawn here,we lost power for a little bit at my house

I was just starting another thread in general,the old one is over 3 years old,but i changed it,can make a new severe thread later on.I'll adjust times if needed.

GFS is showing instability ramping up some what starting tomorrow through possibly into early next week ...Day 5/Sat - Southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity... Low-amplitude west/southwest mid/upper flow is forecast across the southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity for much of the diurnal period on Saturday. By 00z, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough will eject from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, and eventually impinging on the Ozarks/Mid-South area by Sunday morning. A very moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the southern Plains vicinity ahead of this feature as a surface warm front lifts northward through the day. Increasing ascent may not arrive until after 00-03z, limiting convective initiation until the nighttime hours. If storms can develop during the day across portions of OK/TX, all hazards severe potential will exist. Otherwise, thunderstorm potential may be more likely during the evening/overnight from north TX into southeast OK and AR as large-scale ascent increases and a 65-75 kt 500 mb jet overspreads the region. The north and west bounds of severe potential are a bit uncertain, so this area may shift in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Sun - Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valleys... An upper shortwave trough will progress across the region on Sunday. Forecast guidance depicts a 50-60 kt southwesterly 700 mb jet overspreading the region during the day. Meanwhile, a surface low will intensify over MO/IL, shifting northeast along the OH River through the period. A very moist and unstable airmass is depicted ahead of the low and attendant south/southeastward-progressing cold front. Intense severe thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Consistency among deterministic guidance, favorable synoptic pattern, as well as CSU/NSSL ML output, support introduction of 15 percent probabilities for Sunday. ...Days 7-8/Mon-Tue... Spread among forecast guidance increases substantially by the end of the forecast period. However, a pattern shift by Day 8/Tue appears possible, with an amplified upper ridge potentially building over the western half of the CONUS. Overall, predictability is too low to delineate areas of severe potential across the eastern half of the CONUS.

Confirmed deaths in Columbia

Tornado emergency

Its PDS now

See what happens soon,we havent been touched today

Holenwald better look out that cell looks violent

Possibly Clifton around there might be next

Cell around Perryville might go torwarn soon

HRRR has been showing a stronger cap compared to the RAP,dunno who is gonna be right National Weather Service Nashville TN 914 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 856 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Warm front has become stationary close to I-40. Showers with very heavy rainfall and thunderstorms continue to move eastward along and just north of the boundary. Very heavy rainfall continues to feed the flood threat across our far north. To the south, the southern half of the mid state will receive a break with some capping now noted into the early afternoon. However, SPC parameters indicate additional destabilization as the day wears on. Primary push of pre frontal initial energy appears to be mid to late afternoon. At that time...cape values of up to 4000 j/kg will be in place across our south with MLLR`s of 7C to 7 1/2C. Some clearing is already noted in our southwest....not good. 0-1km Helicity values will be in the 100-200 M(2) S(-2) range. Severe out break round 1 will likely occur across the central and south as we move into the mid to late afternoon. All forms of severe weather will be possible. Activity now firing across central Mo. This will represent the energy later in association with the primary frontal boundary. This round 2 activity looks like sometime between 6 PM and midnight for all of the mid state. Again, all forms of severe weather will be possible.

Smith Co tornado yesterday was a confirmed EF-1

National Weather Service Nashville TN 210 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Radar is clear at forecast time. Same goes for the satellite. With small to almost zero dew point depressions, fog has already started to develop in many areas across Middle TN. Right now, only a couple of spots are showing anything dense, but this may change over the next couple of hours. Winds at about 1kft are 20 kts off the OHX VAD profiler and this may be enough to keep us from getting widespread dense stuff, but an advisory may become necessary in the next couple of hours. Well, I`m glad I bumped PoPs from what the NBM gave me yesterday morning. However, storms WAY overperformed yesterday afternoon from what I was seeing in the models at this time yesterday morning. CAPE was near 2000 J/Kg as expected, but even with meager shear, storms were able to produce large hail, damaging wind and from the look of it, possibly a couple tornadoes. That does not bode well for the next couple of days because forecast soundings over the next 72 hours look much more severe than yesterday. Let`s start with today. Remnants of yesterday`s High Risk area over the Plains merged into a QLCS last night, which is now wreaking havoc over western Missouri. This QLCS feature will continue pushing eastward through the morning hours and while latest CAMs have it falling apart upstream from us late this morning, the residual outflows from this system may very well provide us with the lift I thought we may be missing today. Forecast soundings are healthy. 2500+ CAPE values, lapse rates similar to yesterday and much better shear values than I was seeing for yesterday`s storms. For these reasons, while I think damaging wind gusts (60+ mph) and large hail will be the main threats, any storms that develop will likely be rotating, so while lower on the totem pole, I can`t rule out a tornado threat. In addition, with the amount of rain we`ve received over the last couple of days and PWs in the 90th percentile this afternoon, localized flash flooding is also possible. Please don`t sleep on the flash flood threat and heed any warnings that may be issued. Ok. That`s just the afternoon. Almost across the board, CAMs are showing additional development tonight as another wave passes through the region. While we lose some of the heating of the day, CAPE values only fall into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range. This means we`ll hold onto plenty of instability during the overnight hours. Deep layer shear holds steady around 40 kts and helicities are such to sustain updrafts. This means we`ll hold an overnight severe threat, as well, with any additional storms that develop. It also means that we`re going to be dealing with overnight severe potential two nights in a row. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 While today and tonight`s severe threat is healthy, that might make Wednesday`s severe potential super human. In fact, with the forecast soundings I`m seeing I am becoming a little worried. As tonight`s storms wane towards daybreak, the boundary created by them is actually being picked up in some of our models. This is unusual and may serve as a quasi-warm front that is expected to slowly lift back to the north during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Wednesday. As it lifts, there is some signal of convection developing along this boundary. With forecast soundings showing 3000+ CAPE south of the boundary, plenty of shear and mid-level lapse rates closing in on 7.0 deg/km, there is some concern of discrete supercell development Wednesday afternoon. Supercell composites closing in on 10.0 and STP values nearing 2.0 suggest a fairly decent chance of tornado development. In addition, lapse rates only get worse through the afternoon. This means large hail (1.5 inches or larger) is going to be possible. While the afternoon potential for severe weather is more on the isolated to scattered level, yet another round of much more widespread storms is still expected Wednesday night. Again, this is an all-mode severe weather threat overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning, with damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and flash flooding all possible. The next 48-60 hours is going to be VERY active across Middle TN. This is not a time to fret, however. Take this morning and review your safety plan for you and your family. Know where you need to go for shelter if you go under a warning. Wherever that shelter may be, have essential items in there waiting for you. Phone chargers, NOAA Weather Radios, helmets for the kiddos, just to name a few. If you need additional support for making a plan, please visit ready.gov/plan to help you put one together. Don`t wait until you go under a warning. Be prepared. Especially with overnight severe threats for the next two nights. Don`t go to bed without having your phone fully charged and the volume turned up so you can wake up and get to shelter. Once we get through early Thursday morning, I think the severe threat is over. There is an outlier signal from the NAM that the front may not get all the way through Middle TN on Thursday and we could see additional storms Thursday night across our south, but let`s deal with that once we get through the next two days. By Friday, temperatures relax back into the 70s and while the GFS is suggesting some showers and storms on Saturday, most models do not, so hopefully we can remain dry for several days after Thursday morning.