jaxjagman

Cant imagine driving to Atlanta and the nightmare that could happen,especially with potential mudslides/winds in the mountains,hopefully people take detours.But you cant fix stupid can you ?

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 855 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Sep 26 2024 - 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...2030Z Update... In coordination with all of the impacted offices, the Moderate Risk was expanded north to include much of the east facing slopes of the Southern Appalachians with this update. What is forecast to be Major Hurricane Helene is forecast to make landfall in the Big Bend Region of the Florida Panhandle Thursday evening. Around and well ahead of the arrival of the center of circulation, bands of locally very heavy rain will impact all of the Florida Panhandle and portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. PWATs with Helene are expected to be nearly off the charts, as the much larger than normal hurricane draws nearly unlimited moisture from the much warmer than normal eastern Gulf and efficiently converts it to heavy rainfall. Areas of the Florida Peninsula east of the track will contend with storm surge along the coast, which will impact drainage from the heavy rain...resulting in excessive rainfall flooding due to poor drainage. Thus, the Slight continues along the Florida Peninsula, with the Moderate closer to the track. Fortunately, Helene is likely to be moving at its fastest forward speed when it makes landfall in the Big Bend region. This should somewhat reduce the impact potential of the heavy rain. Thus, for now, a High Risk along the Gulf Coast is not yet anticipated, but will certainly continue to be considered with new and changing guidance. Further north, the intensifying southeast flow ahead of Helene's center will advect increasingly deep tropical moisture into Georgia and the Carolinas. The previous day's PRE will give way to the primary rainfall shield with Helene, only resulting in increasingly heavy rainfall into north Georgia and the Carolinas, especially overnight Thursday night. The Moderate Risk was expanded north to account for the PRE, Helene's rainfall, and the much more dangerous nature of the impacts from nighttime flash flooding. Mudslides and landslides will become increasingly common in the southern Appalachians as rainfall amounts approaching 12 inches are expected. Despite recent dry conditions in this area, PWATs exceeding 3 inches in some areas will support storms easily capable of overwhelming the soils resulting in a very healthy percentage of the rainfall converting to runoff. The area from metro Atlanta, much of north Georgia, the western tip of South Carolina, and much of the mountains of western North Carolina are considered in a higher-end Moderate Risk, with increasing potential of eventually needing a High Risk upgrade for this area. This is for a few reasons: 1) The PRE shifting east (as mentioned in the D2 discussion) will prime many of the same southeast facing slopes much more efficiently than in previous forecasts. 2) Increasing rainfall totals with PWATs potentially getting as high as 3 inches in some areas means that much more efficient warm rain processes. 3) Southeast flow perpendicular to the southwest to northeast orientation of the southern Appalachians will maximize the upslope component of the flow, resulting in more rain. 4) Terrain issues, especially after multiple inches of rain Wednesday could mean multiple mudslides and landslides which could cut off whole communities from the road network. For Atlanta, any ERO risk upgrades will be dependent on significant rain from the PRE on Day 2/Wednesday in the city, as otherwise on Day 3 the rainfall in Atlanta will likely be similar to surrounding areas. The surrounding Slight Risks have generally been expanded in all directions: In the Florida Peninsula, convergence along the East Coast with the expansive wind field may result in heavy rain in urban areas from Orlando to Jacksonville. Given the eastward shift in the guidance and that much of Helene's moisture will shift northeast well after landfall, the Slight has been expanded to include all of South Carolina and central North Carolina. Finally, the Slight has also been expanded west to cover nearly all of Tennessee. Much of the westward shift in the guidance will be with some of Helene's moisture as it dissipates being absorbed into a cutoff low over the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a conveyor belt of moisture and heavy rain over much of Tennessee. That heavy rain will continue westward with a jet eventually moving into Missouri and Arkansas by Day 4/Friday. Flash and urban flooding across the major Tennessee cities from Chattanooga, Nashville, Knoxville and maybe as far west as Memphis will be possible. Wegman

We could use the rain .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1104 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024 The focus in the long term continues to the newly named tropical system, Francine. Currently it is a tropical storm off the east coast of Mexico. It will have a north/northeasterly track and is expected to make landfall along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. Ensemble solutions are in fairly good agreement that the remnants continue northward roughly along the Mississippi River bringing showers and storms back to our area on Thursday. Without much upper level steering, the remnants are expected to very slowly continue the northward track Friday and into the weekend. As far as any severe potential, the best chance for Middle Tennessee will be Friday. Model soundings show low level backing along with around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE which could be supportive of rotating cells. With that said, there are many details still to be worked out. The remnants will very slowly wobble northeastward early next week. In the meantime, expect scattered shower and storm chances to continue. Rain could be heavy at time with PWAT values in the 1.7-1.9" inch range. As far as temperatures in the extended, Wednesday will be the warmest days with highs back in the 80s and 90s. Thursday through the weekend will be cooler given the increase cloud cover and showers and storms.

Same here,gonna be a bad foilage season this year in our parts.Most of the rains today have been west of us,but right now we seem to be getting a OFB from those which is kicking off some showers.HIT 102 yesterday and of course my upstairs AC croaked out

We got thunderstorms again here also,models kept showing today an inverted trough with PW'S over 1.8",hopefully those cells to the west dont die out,we could use all we can get

But who knows,some are close to being a more "Modoki",that could just as well be winter.look at how warm it still is off of East Asia,SST'S

Not really sure,way to soon to believe any model right now but right now it sure looks like a SER into late winter and possibly a active early severe season

This winter is looking like more and more 2015-2016 if you resemble the ENSO.It wasnt exactly boring for us in MId TN back then,we had severe and a couple winter storms in Jan,Dec was exceptionally warm tho.The whole winter was AN for temps,but its NINA,so that shouldnt be a surprise.Be nice to at least get some snow,but nothing is giving in Tn,unless you are in the mountains

Our yard has had patches since May,its getting worse but at least today we are getting some thunderstorms with some nice cells producing.So far to me this looks more of a east based NINA into winter,since Mid May the thermocline has warmed and not cooled around 55M,but that dont mean crap right now.Sure looks warm as we head towards the 4th,upper level ridge with a 597 parked above by the GFS,yippee

I found this on Twitterhttps://x.com/Dentonwx/status/1797090493664272545/photo/1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 940 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will likely move into Tennessee tonight. Embedded supercells and line-embedded mesovortices will potentially be capable of tornadoes and severe gusts. The environment will potentially support the risk for strong tornadoes, in addition to swaths of severe gusts.

Per Rap, STP is now 6.9 around into portions of Mid Tn

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Illinois Western Kentucky East-Central and Southeast Missouri Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 75 mph likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop across the watch area through this evening. Several tornadoes are likely, some of which are expected to be intense. Very large hail is also likely, along with the risk for potentially significant damaging wind gusts.

Mesoscale Discussion 0984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of Middle into eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262042Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of middle into eastern Tennessee. Large hail is becoming the main concern as storms become more supercellular through the afternoon. A couple of tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. Either a new WW issuance or local expansions of existing watches are needed. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has gradually transitioned to a more supercellular mode over the past couple of hours, with a dominant supercell recently producing severe hail. Other supercells are beginning to form in the warm sector as well, including in spots where the airmass remains pristine. Given ample buoyancy/shear and the more cellular mode, severe hail will become the main threat over Middle into eastern TN over the next few hours, though a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts are still possible. As such, either a new WW issuance or expansion of existing watches is needed to address the present severe weather scenario.

Lots of supercells seem to popping up in East Tn

Tornado warn Rockwood

Moderate risk for tonight now Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat.

Been some rotation with that hook towards Frankin right now,just isnt tighten up right now

Should have said west of Fairview

Could be some rotation starting east of Fairview

yes

Not sure i'd call it a bust.The models never did show much of any low level shear until it starts to ramp up later on into Sunday,there never seemed to be a tornado threat until Sunday,yeah you could maybe say that yesterday as there was a pretty decent cap from MO Valley into the Mid South but even that the models showed this,just wasnt as strong,plus the models showed the cap breaking up into the early morning hours today and was a great light show before dawn here,we lost power for a little bit at my house

I was just starting another thread in general,the old one is over 3 years old,but i changed it,can make a new severe thread later on.I'll adjust times if needed.

GFS is showing instability ramping up some what starting tomorrow through possibly into early next week ...Day 5/Sat - Southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity... Low-amplitude west/southwest mid/upper flow is forecast across the southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity for much of the diurnal period on Saturday. By 00z, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough will eject from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, and eventually impinging on the Ozarks/Mid-South area by Sunday morning. A very moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the southern Plains vicinity ahead of this feature as a surface warm front lifts northward through the day. Increasing ascent may not arrive until after 00-03z, limiting convective initiation until the nighttime hours. If storms can develop during the day across portions of OK/TX, all hazards severe potential will exist. Otherwise, thunderstorm potential may be more likely during the evening/overnight from north TX into southeast OK and AR as large-scale ascent increases and a 65-75 kt 500 mb jet overspreads the region. The north and west bounds of severe potential are a bit uncertain, so this area may shift in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Sun - Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valleys... An upper shortwave trough will progress across the region on Sunday. Forecast guidance depicts a 50-60 kt southwesterly 700 mb jet overspreading the region during the day. Meanwhile, a surface low will intensify over MO/IL, shifting northeast along the OH River through the period. A very moist and unstable airmass is depicted ahead of the low and attendant south/southeastward-progressing cold front. Intense severe thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Consistency among deterministic guidance, favorable synoptic pattern, as well as CSU/NSSL ML output, support introduction of 15 percent probabilities for Sunday. ...Days 7-8/Mon-Tue... Spread among forecast guidance increases substantially by the end of the forecast period. However, a pattern shift by Day 8/Tue appears possible, with an amplified upper ridge potentially building over the western half of the CONUS. Overall, predictability is too low to delineate areas of severe potential across the eastern half of the CONUS.