jaxjagman

Models continue to show the Mid Level ridge building possibly into the Sea of Japan,Yellow Sea,this so far looks to be a Baui front where along the boundary you should see MCS systems with torrential rains into portions of East Asia.After this breaks down you could see height rises into East Asia ,sure seems possible but like Jeff said lots unkown there is not really a big ridge into Korea and Japan but more into China we might possibly get spared,but several days to seemingly to watch

The MJO is headed towards a wet pattern once again,,keep seeing signs of A Mid Level ridge trying to build up into South East Asia by the ensembles,if they continue this as we head into July later seems possible the we see the same towards the mid of July,with some dirty ridge.

Lots of convection into Mid Tn right now,thought it might die out but seem to have gotten better,with clearing to the west this could rejuvenate storms later on,certainly should be for West Tn

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO... PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND EASTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, and a couple of evolving clusters of storms, will pose a risk for severe wind and hail in a corridor from the Mid South and lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley east-northeastward into the Mid Atlantic region Sunday through Sunday night ...Synopsis... Models indicate that split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America may become more amplified into and through this period. Within this regime, significant cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed later today through Sunday across the Canadian Prairies, with a trailing cold front advancing southeast of the international border, across much of the Northwest and northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains by 12Z Monday. While mid-level ridging builds downstream of the cyclone, across northwestern Ontario, southern Hudson and James Bays into adjacent portions of Quebec, positively tilted mid-level troughing in a branch to the south is forecast to shift slowly east-northeastward across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. It appears that this will be accompanied by a broad weak surface low, migrating along a diffuse surface frontal zone (initially extending from the northern Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley into the southern Great Plains), and developing surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. ...Mid Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into Ark-La-Tex... Along and just south of the weak frontal zone, the boundary-layer may be initially impacted by a considerable amount of remnant convective outflow. How the associated outflow boundaries evolve through midday Sunday remains unclear, but insolation along and to their south likely will contribute to steepening low-level lapse and moderate to large CAPE in the presence of seasonably high moisture content. This appears likely to occur beneath a belt of 30-40+ kt (perhaps stronger where augmented by prior convection) west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, which may prove conducive to renewed strong and organizing convective development Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated supercell structures are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, before potentially damaging wind gusts with evolving clusters becomes the more prominent hazard.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 428 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Far southwest North Carolina Middle to southeast Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Slow-moving multicell clusters should spread east-southeast this afternoon with a primary threat of scattered damaging winds.

Short range models are whiffing again URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Illinois Far southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Western Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Several areas of storm clusters are expected to persist and regenerate this afternoon. A couple of these should develop bowing structures capable of producing damaging winds and a brief tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Salem IL to 5 miles south of Jonesboro AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

We had another round of storms last evening.Had my lawn people clean up my yard yesterday and now it dont even look like they touched it this morning again.Had some stronger winds last night.Short range models have been nothing but bad the last few days,so who knows about today.

We are at 97..HI 113 was gonna go walk in the park earlier,my body said stay in the AC

Looks nothing but wind and maybe hail,the lower levels look meh.Typical summer time storms ,be a long shot to get a upgrade..IMO

Sorry about the typo above,i never seen something like this before,..lol.Pretty sure now when the MCS came by the tree got struck by lightning and when the OFB came trough the winds were even more impressive from the OFB than the the MCS and took it down,Pretty cool still

This was a branch that came off our tree in the front yard.It definite took a lightning bolt

Trying to think what was worse from that MCS,the MCS or the winds that came from the OFB,that was some impressive winds when the OFB strolled through about a half hr ago,just about hit my BMW,should have taken a pic but my son dragged the huge brach into the woods in my back yard

Short range models are not doing a good job,looks like its headed towards East Tn tho,we got some good storms here from the first MCS,wind and lots of rain and some rumbles

me too

Yeah i think the cap was stronger,models have been showing it.You could watch the radar and nothing grew upscale,jmho

by the looks that MCS is headed towards East Tn/VA

More east of Nashville it seems like

meh,oretty boring,seems like the cap was strong enough here

Yeah SPC FINALLY put a 10 % tornado into Kentucky,i might have went more south into KY,i'm not sure what is still going to happen here,still seems like a cap will be in place into the early evening,same as into Ky but they still have much better 3capes that should over ride that cap into the evening

Cams keep showing a potential MCS later on around Ark/Mid South.Earlier models showed more rain here but that never happened or is going to seemingly.Best chance for strong stroms here seems like early evening but there is a cap at the start seemingly but the 3capes are on the rise, dunno.This system is more in Jeffs league,looks complex to me.Might be best to wait and see the afternoon model runs.

Should have a chance for some strong storms Sunday into the evening,Lower levels look crappish right now with the LP heading towards the lakes,but still a good chance for a good light show,wind and possibly hail here somewhere..Probably best to see what the models show tomorrow

We sure could use some rain here.Good news it seems a ULL will nose into the Valley in a couple days and head into the southeast states,this should at least keep us in a unsettled pattern for maybe much of the week into the weekend as the PW'S look to be unseasonably high,just need a kicker

Mesoscale Discussion 0982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Areas affected...southeast TN...northern AL...and northwest GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 112322Z - 112345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail are expected to spread southeast into northern Alabama, southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms over Middle TN are expected to continue to spread southeast into northern AL/northwest GA over the next few hours. Some modest increase in vertical shear is expected through evening, amid moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Semi-discrete cells will pose a risk for large hail given lengthening hodographs with time. A modest low-level jet is also forecast to increase to around 25-30 kt this evening, and some upscale development into bowing/forward propagating clusters. An attendant increase in damaging wind potential will accompany convection in this scenario. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon for portions of the MCD area.

That is unusual even during June into summer,cant remember to see three warned cones at one time in a long time

Nice to get some rains here,parts of East Tn are in a severe drought,our yard was beautiful a couple weeks ago,but now have brown patches all over