jaxjagman

Jamstec is showing an developing LaNina into fall.This should be updated and O-N-D.Possibly an early winter season what it shows depending on any SSWE or how strong it gets

Not sure about 10".But i'm going by the Euro and not GFS.There's more convection shown.Also the DP depression would most certainly be fog and rain . 12Z FEB16 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR 6 HR 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW CAPE QPF CVP NCP HGT 500 (C) (C) J/KG (IN) (IN) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 16-FEB 5.9 5.4 1 561 553 SAT 18Z 16-FEB 11.1 4.7 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 564 555 SUN 00Z 17-FEB 8.8 5.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 565 556 SUN 06Z 17-FEB 6.3 4.2 13 0.01 0.00 0.00 566 557 SUN 12Z 17-FEB 8.4 7.9 16 0.16 0.13 0.03 567 558 SUN 18Z 17-FEB 11.7 10.8 21 0.08 0.01 0.06 569 560 MON 00Z 18-FEB 12.0 11.9 120 0.13 0.04 0.09 570 562 MON 06Z 18-FEB 10.7 10.6 17 0.71 0.15 0.56 570 559 MON 12Z 18-FEB 4.4 3.8 0 0.15 0.06 0.09 569 553 MON 18Z 18-FEB 11.3 -0.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 572 552 TUE 00Z 19-FEB 6.9 -2.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 574 553 TUE 06Z 19-FEB 2.2 -2.8 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 577 552 TUE 12Z 19-FEB 1.3 -3.7 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 577 551 TUE 18Z 19-FEB 5.3 1.8 0 0.07 0.05 0.02 579 554 WED 00Z 20-FEB 3.9 3.8 13 0.52 0.18 0.34 579 556 WED 06Z 20-FEB 4.5 3.6 121 0.36 0.20 0.16 579 561 WED 12Z 20-FEB 5.7 4.8 4 0.06 0.02 0.04 579 562 WED 18Z 20-FEB 10.4 8.5 128 0.10 0.07 0.03 579 564 THU 00Z 21-FEB 9.7 9.6 326 0.50 0.38 0.13 578 565 THU 06Z 21-FEB 11.5 11.5 526 0.48 0.38 0.09 577 565 THU 12Z 21-FEB 12.3 12.1 233 0.54 0.37 0.17 576 564 THU 18Z 21-FEB 14.0 13.4 238 0.24 0.11 0.13 576 563 FRI 00Z 22-FEB 9.5 9.0 38 0.58 0.32 0.26 576 561 FRI 06Z 22-FEB 7.9 7.4 1 0.14 0.05 0.09 577 561 FRI 12Z 22-FEB 8.0 7.6 1 0.05 0.01 0.04 577 560 FRI 18Z 22-FEB 9.7 9.6 144 0.25 0.09 0.16 579 561 SAT 00Z 23-FEB 10.2 10.1 407 0.39 0.24 0.15 579 562 SAT 06Z 23-FEB 12.4 12.4 430 0.40 0.30 0.10 579 562 SAT 12Z 23-FEB 12.3 11.9 80 0.26 0.23 0.03 579 563 SAT 18Z 23-FEB 17.2 14.9 181 0.04 0.02 0.02 578 564 SUN 00Z 24-FEB 16.6 15.6 194 0.06 0.04 0.02 576 565 SUN 06Z 24-FEB 16.7 16.7 310 0.35 0.07 0.28 571 564 SUN 12Z 24-FEB 9.4 2.7 0 0.28 0.05 0.24 568 556 SUN 18Z 24-FEB 7.1 -7.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 565 547 MON 00Z 25-FEB 4.2 -7.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 547 MON 06Z 25-FEB 0.2 -7.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 567 546 MON 12Z 25-FEB -2.0 -8.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 567 546 MON 18Z 25-FEB 6.9 -8.8 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 568 546 TUE 00Z 26-FEB 5.7 -3.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 547 TUE 06Z 26-FEB 2.1 -4.5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 546 TUE 12Z 26-FEB -1.2 -6.4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 544

Hydrologic Outlook Hydrologic Outlook TNC003-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-043-049-055-061-081-083-085- 087-099-101-111-117-119-125-133-135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165- 169-175-177-181-185-187-189-172045- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 234 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 ...More heavy rain and flooding possible across Middle Tennessee next week... A very active weather pattern is expected to continue affecting Middle Tennessee through next week into the following weekend, with frequent storm systems bringing rain almost every single day. The next round of rain will arrive tonight and continue into Sunday night. After another brief drying out on Monday, particularly heavy rain is forecast from Tuesday through Thursday of next week, and even more heavy rain is possible next weekend. Although the forecast remains uncertain on which parts of Middle Tennessee may see the heaviest rainfall next week, current indications are that total rainfall amounts could reach anywhere from 3 inches northwest to 9 inches southeast. Due to the frequent and well-above normal rainfall that has already fallen across Middle Tennessee this month, grounds are saturated and many rivers, creeks and streams are already running high. The forecast heavy rainfall over the next week has the potential to cause significant flooding along area rivers, with flooding of some area roadways, low lying areas, and other poor drainage locations also possible. Residents across Middle Tennessee should continue to closely monitor the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding next week. For the latest forecast updates and river forecasts, visit our website at weather.gov/nashville.

Early season i agree.Some chance of thunderstorms next week as a WF lifts into the lower OV putting the Valley in the warm sector,then a CF comes through.CIPS and even the dashboard hints at thunderstorms.Wouldn't mind tho seeing a good light show at night time

We'll see

Really starting to like down the road for some potential severe risk.Synoptic pattern looking at the Upper plains has shown some severe outbreaks in the SE.The NMME and even the RRWT shows this pattern into the spring time.The NMME and RRWT warm temps into April off the Japan coast down into maybe north of the Sea of the Philippines.This would set up a more of a east coast ridge if it were to teleconnect right.This isn't a forecast,just my presumption at this point. http://www.shawnmilrad.com/severe/

I'll post this here since flooding is severe.There really looks like some parts of the Valley will break records for the most rain fall in the month of Feb.Nashville's record was set in 1989 with 10.12".So far Nashville has 4.37".Not sure about the other areas if i get time i will explore more.Memphis broke the record last year with over 11" for Feb that was set back in 1948

NMME is showing the ENSO going neutral in the summer time.Also what looks to be the strongest WWB of the season east of the IDL could happen upcoming.

Two weak tornadoes confirmed today from yesterday's storms https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

We havent heard thunder here in months.

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CST Wed Feb 06 2019 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX TO WESTERN KY/TN... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF THE WEEK ...SUMMARY... Episodic severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern Great Plains into the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, mainly from late afternoon through tonight. ...Southern Great Plains to TN/Lower OH Valleys... A messy, relatively low confidence scenario for severe storms is apparent this afternoon through tonight, resulting in maintenance of risk area shape but with an overall southward shift. Have decreased wind/tor probabilities across the northern portion of the risk areas where the polar air mass is likely to remain entrenched. Have increased hail probabilities in magnitude and spatially given the expectation of at least a few supercells this afternoon/evening and for the incipient stage of storm development tonight in the southern Great Plains. The surface front has remained nearly stationary in an arc across northwest TX and far southeast OK, with the portion across AR/MO still sinking south with weak cold advection behind it. This boundary should fully stall by midday with some drift back to the northwest as cyclogenesis occurs in the lee of the southern Rockies. A series of cyclones should develop southeast along the front across the TX Panhandle into far south-central OK through tonight, before consolidating near the AR/MO border by 12Z Thursday. Isentropic ascent/warm advection near the boundary along with weak boundary-layer heating of a warm sector characterized by mid 60s surface dew points should promote scattered thunderstorms along and north of the front through early evening in an arc from southeast OK to TN/KY. While elongated hodographs should support a few embedded supercell structures later today, seasonably modest low-level winds and mid-level lapse rates may curtail a more robust tornado and severe threat. Along the western portion of the warm sector in central TX to far south-central OK, the 10Z HRRR is an outlier with the depiction of intense supercell development near/north of the triple-point region along the Red River. This scenario while seemingly unlikely is possible given strengthening convergence associated with cyclogenesis. Should this occur and a discrete cell or two are able to deviate along the boundary, wind profiles would be highly favorable for a large hail and tornado threat. While other CAMs do not support this scenario, as mid-level height falls finally begin to overspread the region, scattered convection should develop generally on the cool side of the boundary in OK tonight and eventually southward along the developing cold front/remnant dryline into north-central TX. Clusters evolving into broader line segments appear probable overnight as forcing for ascent intensifies, but a strong cap should largely inhibit open warm-sector storm development. In addition, the southern extent of storms should struggle given the track of the shortwave trough from the southern Rockies towards the MO Valley. Still, strengthening low/deep-layer shear could sustain an isolated severe risk overnight.

Short range models are showing some better instability tomorrow for the Valley,we'll see where it goes from here

The KI,cape,shear is a good tool(at a starting point),but other indices are involved with the severe thunderstorm aspect and some indices rely with other indices for severe storms.If you want to learn more about severe this is a good starting spot . http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

Trough is showing further back to the west and the heights are rising up.Best shot of any thunderstorms right now looks to be Wed.afternoon into the the early evening,going by the Euro.Not as much rain also with this look.

Timing differences which should not surprise anyone.CIPS is now showing a chance of thunderstorms.Besides from t-storms the Euro would be a decent rain maker with what it shows with LLShear around 30-35kts and a LLJet 45-50 kts coming through,could be 1.5" to 2" of rn as of today which would be more Tuesday into Wed.

Possibly some strong storms next Sunday/Monday,to far out right now to tell but both the GFS AND Euro are showing the DP'S into the lower 60's,with instabilities showing.

I was waiting on the shutdown to end for data.I'm not going to get in any political debate here so with this thread only 14 pages, i went ahead and included 2019 in the topic,let's just run with it for right now for 2019.

Couple seasonals are hinting at a developing LaNina into the summer months.GOES seems to be the most bullish as it seems to want to kick start it into spring time,

Sam Lillo‏ @splillo FollowFollow @splillo More Here's the final gridded tornado-day anomaly map and timeline for 2018. Several hot spots of note. The big story of course is the substantial negative anomaly both spatially and temporally - across the popularly defined tornado alley, and tornado season. 11:05 AM - 1 Jan 2019 More This is based on integrating the practically perfect forecast defined in Hitchen, Brooks and Kay 2013. I.e. you could do the same for SPC tornado probs through the year, and a value of -1 would mean an anomaly from "average" total annual forecast probs of -100%. 0 replies0 retweets2 likes Reply Retweet Like 2 More Since there have been a lot of questions about trends, here they are for the last 30 years of EF1+ tornadoes, in tornado-days / decade. The second plot removes 2011, which negates trends in the seasonal cycle, but spatial trends in the Southeast remain. 0 replies1 retweet10 likes Reply Retweet 1 Like 10

Just a heads up,since the page is only 6 pages i changed the title to ENSO 2018-2019,unless someone has an objection we'll leave it as is and run with it into 2019.

HARPETH can be a bitch in our world.Creeks around our house are maxed out,should start to settle down the next couple hours

Flood Advisory National Weather Service Nashville TN 557 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a flood advisory for the following rivers in middle Tennessee... Harpeth River At Bellevue affecting Davidson and Williamson Counties .Water levels on the Harpeth River will continue to rise this evening, and crest below Flood Stage overnight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Stay tuned to noaa weather radio or other local media for further information from the National Weather Service. && TNC037-187-011157- /O.NEW.KOHX.FL.Y.0095.181231T2357Z-190101T1800Z/ /BELT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ 557 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018 The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a * Flood Advisory for The Harpeth River At Bellevue * At 05PM Monday the stage was 14.3 feet and rising. * Flood stage is 20.0 feet. * The river will rise overnight to near 16 feet, then fall to near 11.5 feet Tuesday morning. * At 14.0 feet...Portions of the Harpeth River Greenway begin to be inundated, and water begins to inundate the parking lot of the Harpeth River State Park at Highway 100.

Glad it's moving fast,drove by the Harpeth creek this morning in Franklin,it's rising.The creek by our house is the highest since we've moved here

Seen some wind reports by the Rim,65 mph with trees down,only tornado around us has been into Ky