jaxjagman

Staying in Maryville for the weekend,when we got to Crossville yesterday the storms really got going,nice light show in Maryville last night. Nashville recorded it's 3rd wettest first half of the year this year on records

Enso took a hit the last pass of MJO and CCKW.Still looks Nino.The next MJO pass should/could possibly knock the snot out of it again especially with any decent CCKW

Looking like a pattern change towards the mid week and maybe even several days afterwards.Winds tho look really sad so the pattern would be more diurnal depending on shortwaves/MCS that could occur during this time.Towards the latter part of next week the models are dropping a CF down and potentially stalling it out into the OV which would keep us into the warm sector for at least diurnal thunderstorms, it seems right now.But of course all this could change with the future model runs Out in east Asia the GEFS and GEPS continues to show a seasonal Meiyu front.Euro and EPS don't seem so bullish with this right now,so we'll see if this does materialize. If it does you could see some catastrophic flooding into Southern Japan

1952 was rather hot in Mid/Tn.,the ENSO was as neutral as it could get for"MJJ" sitting at 0.0 on the ONI Middle Tennessee Weather History On June 30, 1952... Temperature at Nashville reaches 106, setting a record high for the month. It also marks the 8th consecutive day of 100+ readings, a record. Crossville sets both the daily record low and high for the date, with a morning reading of 52 degrees, and an afternoon mark of 93.

Not sure what to think about the upcoming pattern into July.The GEFS is tanking the AAM with MJO into phase 2 almost -2 sigma,fairly strong MJO signal for a model that has a bias to keep it out of this phase in the long range.Out in Asia the models are showing the seasonal Meiyu front,should keep a eye out into the China Sea towards Japan,tho the SST's are much cooler east of Japan.Those waters are warm into the China Sea and can have rapid intensification into a strong typhoon even though the models show nothing,remember Maria,last year?

We had some good storms Wed AND Thurs.Wednesday, we lost power for about 30 min.Thursday was even better,alot of tree damage with some heavy rain in Williamson Co,DBZ on my radar was over 50,at times i couldn't even see out my window for a few minutes, lasted about 20-30 minutes that was one of the best cells i've seen here in quite some time.

June is generally a quiet month,then gets even more so the next couple months. http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/

Models were showing a drying period this week now it's not looking so dry,Looks more diurnal though after today,no big system like the past,right now anyways.

Models are showing a ridge coming through East Asia Tuesday,but this looks more into NE China,could see some height rises into the Valley around the first of July.Don't see no big sustained warm up forth coming, right now anyways.Really wonder what will happen into July.The SOI totally tanked recently and the GEFS and basically it's esemble's shows the AAM going negative.MJO looks progressive as it gets into the Pac and could possibly get into the IO into July,not sure about this.Upcoming just as well the models continue to show a lot of convergence into the Yucatan and W/GOM in a few days,so probably need the watch for some possible tropical genesis upcoming.Lots to ponder it seems to me upcoming into July. 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 23 Jun 2019 1012.39 1013.75 -18.63 -9.41 -5.89 22 Jun 2019 1008.86 1013.55 -42.04 -9.54 -5.72 21 Jun 2019 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -8.78 -5.20 20 Jun 2019 1012.56 1014.05 -19.54 -7.80 -4.76 19 Jun 2019 1013.60 1014.00 -11.88 -7.35 -4.61 18 Jun 2019 1013.43 1013.75 -11.32 -7.25 -4.54

That's crazy,what do you avg a year?

ENSO looks more West,central based right now with warmer waters down in the depth.Almost a "Modoki" look but not quite yet

Storms fell apart in our area but they did hit the OFB in the SW Valley,some good storms going on down S/West and South of us

Been awhile since we've seen these type MCS's come through in the summer time, unusual for us in the Valley.We certainly have not seen this in years.Looks like the pattern finally breaks down the first part of the work week then returns with more diurnal rain towards the end of the work week maybe.least this is what the Euro looks like

HRW did well this morning in Middle Tn,it showed the system weaken and break up before it got to Nashville.Weather Channel even showed a shelf North of Nashville this morning.Looks like a MCS coming from the Mo/Valley and lower OV is fixing to swing through later on,seen the SPC is fixing to throw up a possible T-Storm watch up soon.HRRR looks contaminated showing some PW's 2.35",should though see some potential strong storms as it seems to be hitting some better capes getting into Tn

Tornado Cell South of Hopkinsville

Probably one of the biggest watch boxes ive seen in years in the Valley

Mesoscale show sbcapes of over 6k in SW Ky,these storms should get really fired up shortly

Maybe we'll see a shelf today Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected to affect the mid Mississippi, Lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. Other severe storms may occur over parts of eastern Colorado and the Dakotas. ...Middle MS Valley into TN... A long-lived mature linear MCS is tracking across eastern MO into western IL. This activity has resulted in several reports of damaging winds, and will likely persist through the afternoon as it moves into portions of IN and northern KY. The air mass will become progressively less unstable farther east, so it is unclear how far up the Ohio valley the damaging wind threat will persist. But due to uncertainties and the significant mesoscale organization of the system, have expanded the MRGL/SLGT risk areas farther east into central/eastern Kentucky. A second mature linear MCS over western MO is immediately following the first, and has also produced several reports of wind damage. This line appears to be taking a slightly more southerly trajectory, and is tapping a very moist and very unstable air mass. It appears likely that this MCS will become dominant through the day and track across parts of southern MO, southern IL and eventually into KY/TN. Have expanded the ENH risk eastward into these regions to account for this scenario. It is unclear how far southeast this activity will maintain severe intensity. However, based on a few CAM solutions, have extended SLGT risk to the mountains of east TN for tonight.

Mountains make such cool pics when storms roll over them

That was the best storm we've seen here since the tornado a couple years ago.Some huge hail.I was picking my son up from gymnastics practice and my car was getting pounded,ran over a few lines,dodged some big branches.Few roads are blocked off i saw coming back home.Glad i left my radar on so i could capture the hail,but i have no clue how big it was,it wasn't over 3" for sure the radar estimated.We live right on the out-skirts of Nolensville,but basically it's still Brentwood,glad the power survived though.

Yeah,the JMA does this.Probably not a good sign

MJO still look more progressive than what the RMM's are showing but it does look like it could weaken,somewhat.NAO looks more flat lined today going + or -, choose your dart.PNA by the GEFS and it ensembles are tight together showing a -PNA into wk 3 of this month but going back possibly positive towards the end of the month into July.Euro shows in the long range(day 8-10 shows a 594DM into MS and Alabama,this wouldn't be relative bad for us in the Valley heat wise,you should even have a chance of a shortwave or two.

Looks like that last KW did a job trying to upwell those cooler waters towards the surface,east of the IDL,still deep into the thermocline,at this point