jaxjagman

3.4 is back to 0.5

Makes you ponder about global warming,just saying,Everything seems out of sync

Still really weird as Carver mentioned 1954,this was like the the start of a long lived LaNina that went into a strong LaNina into the winter of 1955.Seems like right now as i posted on the ENSO thread seems like we could get into a Nino pattern vs a Nina upcoming

Didnt think we'd get close to 98 but we tied the record today,next few days looks like records will go down

Enso has warmed east of the IDL recently.CFS today is showing another WWB into week 1 of Oct that looks to make it past 120W into the 2nd week of Oct,this would be the strongest WWB in that area since the first of July. 3.4 has been warming the last couple weeks and for that matter every region has been rising,3,4 should stay that way and make no significant drop,As far as 3 rises much upcoming would depend on a Rossby and Kelvin waves.

We'll have to wait and see if it's right,looks to be a KW into the Eastern Pac today and with the MJO will possibly kick off some tropical cyclogenesis into the GOM,at the same time a cold front swings through,seems like the perfect storm for us right now as dry as we've been

I'll believe it when i see it ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z SEP29 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 29-SEP 82.5 65.2 15005 93 SUN 06Z 29-SEP 82.8 75.1 75.0 66.2 18003 40 SUN 12Z 29-SEP 75.0 71.7 72.2 66.2 17004 0.00 0.00 12 SUN 18Z 29-SEP 91.8 72.2 91.9 64.1 20003 0.00 0.00 31 MON 00Z 30-SEP 92.8 83.8 83.5 66.9 15005 0.00 0.00 27 MON 06Z 30-SEP 83.5 76.0 75.8 68.8 15003 0.00 0.00 84 MON 12Z 30-SEP 75.8 73.0 73.3 68.6 16003 0.00 0.00 36 MON 18Z 30-SEP 94.2 73.4 94.4 64.3 23003 0.00 0.00 28 TUE 00Z 01-OCT 95.2 86.2 85.6 66.3 12003 0.00 0.00 11 TUE 06Z 01-OCT 85.6 76.3 76.2 65.1 18003 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 01-OCT 76.2 71.2 72.1 65.1 18003 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 01-OCT 95.8 72.1 96.0 60.1 24002 0.00 0.00 27 WED 00Z 02-OCT 97.2 85.8 85.6 63.8 07002 0.00 0.00 4 WED 06Z 02-OCT 86.0 76.2 76.1 60.9 17004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 02-OCT 76.6 74.2 74.5 63.2 19005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 02-OCT 96.3 74.5 96.5 60.4 28004 0.00 0.00 17 THU 00Z 03-OCT 97.4 86.8 86.4 62.6 24002 0.00 0.00 11 THU 06Z 03-OCT 86.5 76.7 76.6 64.2 29004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 03-OCT 77.9 73.3 73.4 65.2 21002 0.00 0.00 4 THU 18Z 03-OCT 95.7 73.3 95.9 63.5 30004 0.00 0.00 17 FRI 00Z 04-OCT 96.6 86.7 86.6 65.4 26002 0.00 0.00 34 FRI 06Z 04-OCT 86.6 78.5 78.3 63.8 36007 0.00 0.00 11 FRI 12Z 04-OCT 78.3 71.3 71.3 65.4 01006 0.00 0.00 17 FRI 18Z 04-OCT 87.7 71.3 87.9 64.6 02006 0.00 0.00 29 SAT 00Z 05-OCT 89.6 81.6 81.3 61.8 02007 0.00 0.00 4 SAT 06Z 05-OCT 81.3 73.1 72.9 59.0 04005 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 12Z 05-OCT 72.9 69.1 69.2 58.9 06004 0.00 0.00 3 SAT 18Z 05-OCT 92.5 69.2 92.7 62.7 18004 0.00 0.00 8 SUN 00Z 06-OCT 94.1 76.5 76.3 71.4 33004 0.07 0.00 69 SUN 06Z 06-OCT 76.6 73.8 76.2 65.5 15008 0.02 0.00 27 SUN 12Z 06-OCT 77.3 74.2 74.7 66.6 17010 0.00 0.00 20 SUN 18Z 06-OCT 87.6 74.7 86.9 65.5 19009 0.01 0.00 39 MON 00Z 07-OCT 88.1 74.5 74.5 69.6 16004 0.11 0.00 56 MON 06Z 07-OCT 75.0 69.6 69.4 68.8 16007 0.39 0.00 96 MON 12Z 07-OCT 69.5 68.6 68.8 68.6 17008 0.23 0.00 100 MON 18Z 07-OCT 72.6 68.8 72.1 70.8 19008 0.41 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 08-OCT 73.4 68.7 68.6 68.5 17005 0.60 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 08-OCT 69.1 68.1 68.2 68.0 16007 0.64 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 08-OCT 69.3 65.7 65.2 64.6 23010 0.95 0.00 93 TUE 18Z 08-OCT 65.7 59.9 63.2 50.7 24011 0.02 0.00 100 WED 00Z 09-OCT 63.7 59.4 59.3 46.6 26008 0.00 0.00 86

Its so odd tho with the ENSO,IN 1953 next week where record temps are showing possible this was in a Nino in 1953 that went into a long lived LaNina, the oceans right now look like they might warm into a ElNino and not LaNina upcoming,maybe more emphasis into global warming?Not sure

Probably the best trough we've seen since spring time in East Asia if it teleconnects right would be another decent cool down towards the middle of the month,The Euro is already hinting at building the Upper Level Ridge tho once again after the cool down possibly next weekend afterwards,could be just another dry front.It's really tough to get rid of a drought than get into one,we seen this recently

We didn't break our record today,thanks to more clouds held the thermals down but we did hit 92. The MJO on the RMM'S continue to show it stalled out into P1,i'm starting to think they may be right as a Rossby Wave is going through the IO then into Africa upcoming days helping stop the progression of it,but we'll see.MV's maps has done rather well tho and still shows it more progressive.Probably need to wait and see at this stage.good news tho the Euro still shows a cold front towards Friday and closer to seasonal temps,bad news it still looks dry right now

Thinks it's back to norm now,fingers crossed

Seems ok now

Maybe it's better now

Have to change colors to post,plus other than the post Chase made everyone else is posting in invisible ink,you can't see anyones post

Broke the record here yesterday,should go down again today.Doubt we hit 98 Sunday but the rest of these days it should go down.Good news anyways looks like a cold front Friday but like all the fronts it looks probably dry right now,but at least we could get more closer to climo with temps,but we need rain DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NASHVILLE Date Record Year Forecast Fri Sep 27 93 1998 93 Sat Sep 28 94 1986 95 Sun Sep 29 98 1953 96 Mon Sep 30 93 1953 97 Tue Oct 1 94 1953 97 Wed Oct 2 91 1953 95 Thu Oct 3 92 1903 93 DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT CROSSVILLE Date Record Year Forecast Fri Sep 27 87 1998 86 Sat Sep 28 87 1998 88 Sun Sep 29 84 1986 89 Mon Sep 30 86 1998 90 Tue Oct 1 84 1956 90 Wed Oct 2 86 1986 88 Thu Oct 3 84 1986 87 OCTOBER MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES Location Record Date Nashville 94 Oct 1 1953 Crossville 86 Oct 7 2007*

Thanks,believe the board did an update or upgrade one last night

Anyone having problems with the board? .

Yeah the weeklies were sad.Nashville is on pace to be the driest month in Sept on record for rains, 0.02.The previous was 0.13 back in 1903. National Weather Service Nashville TN 702 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... A weak cold front settled across the Tn Valley yesterday with scattered showers. Now the leftover moisture has helped produce pockets of dense fog, especially across the Upper Cumberland Region. A Dense Fog Advisory has already been issued for the northeast half of the Mid State. Satellite/vsby trends will be monitored and the advisory will be expanded farther southwest if needed. The dense fog will lift by 9 AM CDT. The diffuse frontal zone will lift northward today allowing hot and humid conditions to develop. As this happens, isolated showers or brief thunderstorms could form, mainly east of I-65. Otherwise, south winds will kick in and temperatures will climb into the summer-like lower 90s, except mid to upper 80s Plateau. Through the weekend and into next week, a strong upper level ridge will build with the main center across the Lower Ms Valley and Tn Valley Valley Regions. This will help boost high temperatures to record levels. Despite the impressive strength of the ridge, it will be a bit "dirty" with some pockets of moisture. The position of a surface high along the east coast will work with the moisture to produce isolated showers/storms at times mainly along the Cumberland Plateau. Unfortunately, this will not be enough rain to make a significant dent in the worsening drought and fire danger conditions. As we have been seeing for a while in this warm pattern, model guidance numbers are not nearly warm enough with the forecast highs. We will continue to go with our NBM (National Blend of Models) through the forecast period. Here are some BNA records for this forecast period... Date Hi Year Sep 28 94 1986 Sep 29 98 1953 Sep 30 93 1953 Oct 1 94 1953 Oct 2 91 1953 Oct 3 92 1903 Note: the all-time record high for October of 94 degrees at Nashville and 86 degrees at Crossville may be broken. The upper ridge will begin to weaken and shift back southeastward late next week, which may allow a weak cold front to make it down into Tennessee around Thursday. However, some models are keeping the ridge in place or only backing it off temporarily. Even if we get some showers and relief from the record heat, the overall warm and dry pattern is likely to continue well into October. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z SEP27 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) FRI 00Z 27-SEP 72.7 67.8 36003 61 FRI 06Z 27-SEP 72.7 67.3 67.3 64.6 07003 16 FRI 12Z 27-SEP 67.8 66.7 67.9 67.0 15005 0.00 0.00 71 FRI 18Z 27-SEP 90.6 67.9 90.8 63.4 21006 0.00 0.00 22 SAT 00Z 28-SEP 92.2 81.1 80.8 66.0 18005 0.01 0.00 18 SAT 06Z 28-SEP 80.8 74.8 74.8 65.7 17005 0.00 0.00 1 SAT 12Z 28-SEP 74.9 72.5 72.8 65.9 20004 0.00 0.00 5 SAT 18Z 28-SEP 92.6 72.8 92.7 61.3 22007 0.00 0.00 89 SUN 00Z 29-SEP 93.6 82.3 81.9 63.2 19004 0.00 0.00 60 SUN 06Z 29-SEP 81.9 73.3 73.7 64.1 14001 0.00 0.00 24 SUN 12Z 29-SEP 74.8 71.3 71.9 65.5 16004 0.00 0.00 67 SUN 18Z 29-SEP 92.8 71.9 92.8 61.5 21003 0.00 0.00 47 MON 00Z 30-SEP 93.7 83.9 83.7 65.7 11003 0.00 0.00 20 MON 06Z 30-SEP 84.2 75.4 75.2 65.1 18004 0.00 0.00 4 MON 12Z 30-SEP 75.2 71.7 72.2 67.3 16003 0.00 0.00 2 MON 18Z 30-SEP 93.4 72.1 93.6 65.2 22001 0.00 0.00 25 TUE 00Z 01-OCT 94.4 84.7 84.4 70.1 12001 0.00 0.00 11 TUE 06Z 01-OCT 84.5 77.2 77.1 67.9 19004 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 12Z 01-OCT 77.2 74.0 74.5 67.2 17005 0.00 0.00 5 TUE 18Z 01-OCT 94.0 74.5 94.1 64.3 24003 0.00 0.00 27 WED 00Z 02-OCT 94.9 85.4 85.1 66.6 14003 0.00 0.00 18 WED 06Z 02-OCT 85.2 76.9 76.8 65.8 20004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 02-OCT 76.9 73.2 73.9 65.4 18004 0.00 0.00 5 WED 18Z 02-OCT 94.6 73.9 94.7 62.8 27003 0.00 0.00 23 THU 00Z 03-OCT 95.5 85.2 84.9 66.0 05001 0.00 0.00 29 THU 06Z 03-OCT 85.2 77.5 77.4 65.2 19004 0.00 0.00 15 THU 12Z 03-OCT 77.5 73.5 74.0 66.1 24003 0.00 0.00 12 THU 18Z 03-OCT 95.1 73.9 95.1 64.0 29004 0.00 0.00 42 FRI 00Z 04-OCT 95.2 86.0 85.6 63.7 33004 0.00 0.00 27 FRI 06Z 04-OCT 85.6 76.9 76.8 65.1 36006 0.00 0.00 10 FRI 12Z 04-OCT 76.8 71.5 71.5 66.9 01005 0.00 0.00 22 FRI 18Z 04-OCT 91.1 71.5 91.3 64.5 36004 0.00 0.00 8 SAT 00Z 05-OCT 92.4 84.0 83.7 61.6 00006 0.00 0.00 21 SAT 06Z 05-OCT 83.7 75.2 75.1 61.3 04005 0.00 0.00 7 SAT 12Z 05-OCT 75.1 70.8 70.9 60.4 07004 0.00 0.00 17 SAT 18Z 05-OCT 92.6 70.9 92.8 63.1 24002 0.00 0.00 29 SUN 00Z 06-OCT 94.0 82.2 81.9 64.9 16004 0.01 0.00 37 SUN 06Z 06-OCT 81.9 76.3 76.4 64.4 16005 0.00 0.00 19 SUN 12Z 06-OCT 76.9 75.1 75.1 65.1 16006 0.00 0.00 30 SUN 18Z 06-OCT 93.1 75.1 93.3 59.9 20004 0.00 0.00 12 MON 00Z 07-OCT 94.7 80.7 80.4 62.2 10005 0.01 0.00 54

Believe the RMMM'S are seeing nothing but destructive interference with the MJO.Think it's more progressive than what they are showing upcoming.

Highly variable conditions were observed across the South, with intense late-summer heat and acute short-term dryness in southwestern and northeastern portions of the region contrasting with heavy to excessive rainfall across the west-central Gulf Coast and from western Texas northeastward into central and southern Oklahoma. Tropical Storm Imelda moved slowly ashore near Freeport, Texas, drifting northward while producing prodigious rainfall totals (20-30 inches, locally more) south and east of Houston. Heavy rain (2-8 inches) was also noted further inland across eastern Texas, western Louisiana, and southeastern Oklahoma, easing or alleviating Abnormal Dryness (D0) as well as Moderate to Severe Drought (D1 and D2). Farther west, widespread heavy showers (1-5 inches, locally more) from Texas’ Big Bend northeastward into central and southeastern Oklahoma (a peak value of 7.66 inches was noted in Antlers, OK) likewise supported aggressive reductions to drought intensity and coverage. Conversely, excessive heat (daytime highs approaching or topping 100°F) and pronounced short-term dryness (60-day rainfall totaling locally less than 20 percent of normal) heightened evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture losses, resulting in quickly escalating drought impacts (often referred to as a “flash drought”.) It should be noted that “flash drought” impacts often arise more quickly than the rainfall data would suggest due to the accompanying heat. For this week’s analysis, the expansion of D0 (Abnormal Dryness) as well as Moderate (D1) to Extreme Drought (D3) was driven by guidance from local experts, impact reports from observers, as well as temperature- and rainfall-driven data products which focused on the past 60 to 90 days. Increases in drought were most pronounced from the Rio Grande toward Dallas, Texas, and from the central Delta into Tennessee. State-wide average topsoil moisture was rated more than 70 percent short to very short (according to USDA-NASS) as of September 22 in Arkansas (78 percent poor to very poor), Mississippi (83 percent), and Tennessee (89 percent, a 14-point jump over last week).

Sure we're next

I'd be careful using the CFS forecast of the MJO.What it seems to be seeing is the westerly wind burst ongoing which looks like it will help generate a new Kelvin Wave possibly upcoming into the Eastern Pacific

So much for a cool down,looks like the same old story

Looks warm ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z SEP22 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 22-SEP 0.6 2.3 6 -1 10 5 SUN 18Z 22-SEP 11.6 4.9 2 -6 10 8 MON 00Z 23-SEP 6.4 6.1 0 -40 10 11 MON 06Z 23-SEP 1.7 4.0 0 -44 10 9 MON 12Z 23-SEP -0.5 2.5 1 -44 8 7 MON 18Z 23-SEP 11.5 4.9 -3 26 7 9 TUE 00Z 24-SEP 6.3 5.3 -4 46 5 8 TUE 06Z 24-SEP 2.6 1.7 -4 -13 3 7 TUE 12Z 24-SEP -1.6 -0.4 -2 -40 3 5 TUE 18Z 24-SEP 7.7 0.9 -4 -38 2 6 WED 00Z 25-SEP 3.0 2.3 -6 1038 -38 39.33 2 7 WED 06Z 25-SEP -2.2 1.7 -5 1058 -40 39.33 1 6 WED 12Z 25-SEP -4.0 2.4 -4 1071 -39 39.33 1 5 WED 18Z 25-SEP 11.4 4.9 -7 1022 -34 39.33 2 8 THU 00Z 26-SEP 6.4 6.8 -8 19 2 9 THU 06Z 26-SEP 0.7 6.7 -6 26 3 8 THU 12Z 26-SEP 1.4 5.0 -5 26 3 7 THU 18Z 26-SEP 13.4 6.4 -6 25 5 10 FRI 00Z 27-SEP 7.6 6.7 -5 26 7 11 FRI 06Z 27-SEP 3.0 7.4 -3 14 8 11 FRI 12Z 27-SEP 2.2 7.4 -1 21 8 9 FRI 18Z 27-SEP 17.4 9.5 -3 30 9 11 SAT 00Z 28-SEP 10.5 8.9 -2 12 10 11 SAT 06Z 28-SEP 5.9 7.6 0 6 11 11 SAT 12Z 28-SEP 4.0 7.1 3 31 11 9 SAT 18Z 28-SEP 15.8 8.3 1 23 13 11 SUN 00Z 29-SEP 10.4 8.7 1 16 13 12 SUN 06Z 29-SEP 4.8 7.9 3 8 14 12 SUN 12Z 29-SEP 2.8 6.9 4 1 14 10 SUN 18Z 29-SEP 16.3 8.7 2 -2 14 13 MON 00Z 30-SEP 10.2 9.5 0 -2 14 13 MON 06Z 30-SEP 4.1 8.5 2 -16 14 12 MON 12Z 30-SEP 2.2 7.2 4 -11 14 11 MON 18Z 30-SEP 15.9 8.7 1 -8 14 13 TUE 00Z 01-OCT 10.5 10.2 -1 -1 14 14 TUE 06Z 01-OCT 4.2 8.8 1 -22 13 13 TUE 12Z 01-OCT 2.8 7.1 2 -25 13 12 TUE 18Z 01-OCT 16.2 8.7 -1 -26 14 14 WED 00Z 02-OCT 10.2 8.9 -1 -25 14 14 WED 06Z 02-OCT 4.7 7.2 0 -34 13 13 WED 12Z 02-OCT 2.9 6.0 2 -31 13 12

In the mean time once again the Euro has been to cool,not horrid tho with dp's in the low 50's,be interesting tho if we break the record back into 1954,89 today Lat: 36.12°NLon: 86.69°WElev: 597ft. Partly Cloudy 91°F 33°C