jaxjagman

Looking at some of the stats up top for the warmest year with 90+ temps in Nashville,only last year,2018 year wasn't an actual LaNina year into Winter time,but the ENSO was much warmer east of the IDL compared to this year.Last year we was getting rid of a drought into this month,this year we are gaining.In the mean time SUB-X shows some relief in temps,believe tho this is more potential tropical genesis into the GOM this certainly is possible with the MJO as strong as it is being shown and with the passing of a CCKW

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 400 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019 ...NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE NEARING RECORDS FOR MOST 90 DEGREE DAYS IN A YEAR AND DRIEST SEPTEMBER... UNUSUALLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER HAS CONTINUED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS THANKS TO A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN A YEAR TO APPROACH NEAR-RECORD LEVELS. IN ADDITION, THE LACK OF RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONTH HAS NOW MADE THIS SEPTEMBER ONE OF THE DRIEST ON RECORD IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TOP 5 YEARS WITH MOST 90 DEGREE DAYS IN NASHVILLE RANK # OF DAYS YEAR 1 96 DAYS 1954 2 87 DAYS 2019* 3 87 DAYS 2016 4 86 DAYS 2018 5 82 DAYS 2010 * AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18 TOP 5 YEARS WITH MOST 90 DEGREE DAYS IN CROSSVILLE RANK # OF DAYS YEAR 1 45 DAYS 1954 2 40 DAYS 1993 3 34 DAYS 1980 4 26 DAYS 1988 5 24 DAYS 1990 31 5 DAYS 2019* * AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18 TOP 5 DRIEST SEPTEMBERS IN NASHVILLE RANK TOTAL RAINFALL YEAR 1 0.01 IN 2019* 2 0.13 IN 1903 3 0.19 IN 1897 4 0.21 IN 2014 5 0.28 IN 1956 * AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18 TOP 5 DRIEST SEPTEMBERS IN CROSSVILLE RANK TOTAL RAINFALL YEAR 1 0.34 IN 2019* 2 0.66 IN 1984 3 0.83 IN 2016 4 0.89 IN 1961 5 1.10 IN 1999 * AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18 CLIMATE RECORDS FOR NASHVILLE BEGAN IN 1871. CLIMATE RECORDS FOR CROSSVILLE BEGAN IN 1954.

We are in our worse drought sorta speaking since since 1954 in the Tn Valley,around Nashville is on pace to be the driest for Sept and even warmest on record with temps of 90 plus for the year,seems like a more LaNina but isnt.i have hard time to believe this will be cold and not warm in our area especially if we don't get any rain upcoming into our dry Oct season upcoming

Unfortunate we are headed into one of the driest months of the year,Oct., if we don't get much rains upcoming the rest of this month Nashville could have the driest Sept on record..The MJO signal is really strong looking into phase 1,this seemingly this time of year smells some sort of ridge into early Oct but we'll see beyond that.Everytime the PNA in the long range shows some relief and goes positive it abruptly switches out and goes negative once again which it what we see today.The drought monitor today showed a big spike in the Valley,more than i thought it might show.Totally difference from last year to this year,if i recall right into the 3rd week of Sept of last year we was talking about flooding,now drought this year

You made me go look at ours,we haven't hit 100 in 7 years,1952 in Clarksville.36-days of 100+,must of been some death ridge over them,the ENSO was basically neutral through out the spring through the rest of the year https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1952.9932221?journalCode=vwws20

It was hot here today as well,hit 99 and broke this record Middle Tennessee Weather History On September 16, 1927... Very summer-like weather is felt across the mid state. The afternoon temperature hits 98 degrees at Nashville.

Possibly 1.2 might be there the next update tomorrow or darn near close..3 has cooled of as well with the CCKW passing through

IMME

BNA hit 91 at 1PM ,so the countdown continues to see if we can breach 90+here in the Mid Valley for a year,record is 96,currently 88

We got "1 of snow on Nov 2,1954.which is rare for us,usually this time of year it's either cold rain or thunderstorms but temps dropped to 21 that night.Spring of 1954 was the start of a long lived LaNina that went strong into 1955 towards the end of that year.During Nov into Dec the EPO looked to avg -0.50,this must have been good enough for even Tallahassee,Fl.had 11 days during Dec of 1954 that made it below freezing,that's even just as weird to me.But having a warm spell like in a LaNina year into summer of 1954 doesn't seem much out of place,sorta speaking.

1954 was warm,the most days around here in a year with highs 90+ with 96 that year.With us hitting 90+ today we are presently at 87

By the looks the precip looks wet in Fla with potential severe thunderstorms and wet in California,seems typical Nino.Looks like our typical cold seasons of past where the battle ground is 1-40,crap shoot south

Jamstec,it did really bad last winter

Still feed back problems with it.They did a upgrade with it before last month's run,it hasn't been right ever since.

Looks like a weak LaNina

Basically if you look at the maps above what some of the NMMES show there is nothing coupled with the oceans,it has been that way since the inception of this Nino, it could be just like last winter warm and wet but last winter the SST'S were much warmer east of the IDL,unlike this year it seems.There would seem to be depending on the QBO the PV could be weak so there always is a chance of a SSWE INTO winter.But this winter seems like a crap shoot IMHO,with more weight towards warm than cold

NMME is out and don't look great IMO.Tho this looks like a more +PDO,But look how warm the SST is showing into the GOM,this should teleconnect much cooler with the PDO than what is being shown into the GOM,you'd think those SST'S along the west coast would be much colder with the look into the GOM

ational Weather Service Nashville TN 204 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2019 .DISCUSSION... At first glace, this 7 day forecast could definitely fit more into the brutal dog days of July rather than the second week of September as far as the heat is concerned. Good thing we have this weekend in which today has given us a very nice reprieve from the heat and humidity as the area enjoys the weather behind a nice frontal passage. Temperatures so far this afternoon have only reached the low to mid 80s (and that last sentence might not be uttered again until mid to late September). A relatively cool and dry night can be expected tonight with clear skies and light northerly winds. Sunday will be another day with Highs in the 80s and dry weather continuing before the heat is on. For the work week...High pressure builds over the region for the first half of the week. With minimal cloud coverage and not much in the way of convection really expected, Monday and especially Tuesday-Thursday look to be rather HOT for this time of year with heat index values nearing/surpassing the 100 degree mark. Seasonal High temperature normals are generally in the low 80s so forecasting mid to possibly upper 90s seems a little brutal for those really wishing it could be a little more like pumpkin spice weather. So don`t close those pools just yet cause summer is hanging on strong. By Friday and next weekend, the ridge finally breaks down and better chances for afternoon and evening storms can be expected. With this expect Highs to be a few degrees cooler but still near and above the 90 degree mark. Another front looks to approach the region late in the weekend which will hopefully provide the ending of the July heat in September. Not much rain here lately,our lawn is starting to turn brown after looking great earlier,maybe a front into next weekend but right now it looks dry. ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z SEP07 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 07-SEP -1.5 2.8 -1 -41 3 4 SAT 18Z 07-SEP 6.9 2.0 -2 -42 4 6 SUN 00Z 08-SEP 3.7 1.4 -3 -33 4 7 SUN 06Z 08-SEP -1.8 2.2 -1 -8 4 6 SUN 12Z 08-SEP -3.6 4.7 0 -7 4 4 SUN 18Z 08-SEP 9.9 4.7 -1 -5 5 5 MON 00Z 09-SEP 6.3 5.4 -3 -12 5 7 MON 06Z 09-SEP 1.1 5.6 -1 -11 5 6 MON 12Z 09-SEP -0.1 5.3 1 -6 5 5 MON 18Z 09-SEP 14.7 5.7 0 -6 7 7 TUE 00Z 10-SEP 9.3 7.8 -1 -7 7 9 TUE 06Z 10-SEP 3.5 8.0 0 -6 8 8 TUE 12Z 10-SEP 1.7 7.4 3 -4 9 6 TUE 18Z 10-SEP 15.8 6.6 2 3 10 8 WED 00Z 11-SEP 11.0 6.9 2 25 10 8 WED 06Z 11-SEP 4.9 6.0 3 6 10 7 WED 12Z 11-SEP 3.1 4.9 5 5 10 6 WED 18Z 11-SEP 15.1 5.2 3 7 10 7 THU 00Z 12-SEP 9.9 6.2 1 15 9 8 THU 06Z 12-SEP 5.2 5.8 1 0 9 8 THU 12Z 12-SEP 3.3 5.3 3 1 8 6 THU 18Z 12-SEP 15.6 5.8 1 6 9 7 FRI 00Z 13-SEP 10.1 6.7 0 13 8 9 FRI 06Z 13-SEP 4.8 6.2 1 9 8 8 FRI 12Z 13-SEP 3.1 5.3 3 18 8 6 FRI 18Z 13-SEP 15.8 6.0 2 13 9 8 SAT 00Z 14-SEP 8.1 5.7 2 1057 27 39.34 9 7 SAT 06Z 14-SEP 4.3 5.5 3 1072 25 39.33 8 6 SAT 12Z 14-SEP 2.9 4.5 4 1079 19 39.33 8 5 SAT 18Z 14-SEP 13.8 4.3 2 1038 24 39.33 8 6 SUN 00Z 15-SEP 7.4 4.9 1 22 7 6 SUN 06Z 15-SEP 3.6 4.3 1 16 7 6 SUN 12Z 15-SEP 3.2 3.6 3 21 6 4 SUN 18Z 15-SEP 13.5 3.8 0 17 6 6 MON 00Z 16-SEP 9.8 5.8 -2 1042 -1 39.33 6 8 MON 06Z 16-SEP 5.1 4.6 -1 1060 -13 39.33 6 7 MON 12Z 16-SEP 3.0 4.3 1 1083 3 39.33 6 6 MON 18Z 16-SEP 13.4 3.9 -1 1041 10 39.33 7 8 TUE 00Z 17-SEP 10.3 5.6 -2 23 7 9 TUE 06Z 17-SEP 6.1 3.6 0 19 7 7 TUE 12Z 17-SEP 0.9 2.0 3 -17 7 5

Yeah, looks warm next work week. Euro and for the most part looks like a possibility of around 10-15 degrees AN for the Valley .Warmest temp here still looks to be Tues right now with the 594dm MLR over head.Euro this afternoon has us at 101 but DP's are only 55,so no heat advisory,still warmish

No sign of winter yet..LOL..Thank you,Dorian.Probably over doing it but the Euro wants to really build a Upper Level Ridge into the Valley with a short term 594dm over head.Would be our hottest temps of the season.Not sure where the Max 103.9 would be but the Valley would be the warm spot.

Wow what a game,thought we'd lose for sure..lol

Gonna be a long season

This is really cool,had to post

Heh,real nice other than the ridge over the Valley.But that would be impressive in the NE this early