jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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Basically if you look at the maps above what some of the NMMES show there is nothing coupled with the oceans,it has been that way since the inception of this Nino, it could be just like last winter warm and wet but last winter the SST'S were much warmer east of the IDL,unlike this year it seems.There would seem to be depending on the QBO the PV could be weak so there always is a chance of a SSWE INTO winter.But this winter seems like a crap shoot IMHO,with more weight towards warm than cold
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NMME is out and don't look great IMO.Tho this looks like a more +PDO,But look how warm the SST is showing into the GOM,this should teleconnect much cooler with the PDO than what is being shown into the GOM,you'd think those SST'S along the west coast would be much colder with the look into the GOM
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This is really cool,had to post
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Slightly warmer into the thermocline this update as a CCKW is passing through east of the IDL bringing some upwelling.MJO signal looks weak but looks to be into the Maritime in a couple days,least this is what the RMMM's are showing.Jamstec shows an active "Modoki" into fall,maybe we can get an active fall severe for a change
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The SOI finally made it into an more Nina pattern today for 30 days anyways,still has aways for 90 18 Aug 2019 1017.45 1014.60 7.46 0.07 -7.28 17 Aug 2019 1017.60 1014.75 7.46 -0.38 -7.47 16 Aug 2019 1014.80 1015.85 -16.21 -1.04 -7.56 15 Aug 2019 1014.60 1016.25 -19.85 -0.87 -7.26
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
In 2012 as the low ice was at it's lowest as said above it went into a more Nina pattern tho the end of the year.Really ,right now don't see this happening if you look down into the thermocline it's still warm deep down right now anyways.But,in Jan of 2013 we really toasted- 574 replies
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Sea Ice is on pace to break the record back into 2012 this year,based on records from 1979.We don't know how much it can or will reproduce right now.In the start of 2012 it started out as a weak LaNina per ONI,the first part but went more positive neutral into the summer/autumn but back to negative neutral by "OND" and stayed that way until the spring of 2014.Typically, as you see on the graph the sea ice (loss) does not really peak until Mid Sept. Plus you have to look at the low solar this winter(some say this will be the lowest in over 200 years).I think Jeff mentioned this in another post of, but the wording wasn't the same.How will the low Ice effect the low solar this winter?- 574 replies
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- early winter
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Like the new color scheme,easier to tell if the anoms are on the +/- side.Not much change this update.Probably see a slight change next update as the CCKW is passing by east of the IDL
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Jamstec is much warmer with the Enso
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IMME has a neutral tho negative ENSO in the winter
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Still got a half month to go.Typically here Aug and Oct are our driest month
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Lost Power for a few minutes but lost Comcast so have no TV or internet.By far the best storms of the year today .
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Last update from CPC seems to reflect on a DWKW which passed through region 3 and 1.2 which had no problem it seems puling those cooler waters to the surface.Still looks warm elsewhere
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NMME'S updated.CAN and GEM looks like feedback issues from the models,should explain now why CanSIPS looks so not right on Tidbits.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
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Saw ya'll were in a TSW and slight risk as well.COMCAST went out for us,lost the TV and internet so i just went to bed last night after it passed.Saw the power was lost for about 25K but luckily we still kept that
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- grieving winter
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Another good cell tonight BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Nashville TN 834 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Davidson County in Middle Tennessee... Rutherford County in Middle Tennessee... Eastern Williamson County in Middle Tennessee... Wilson County in Middle Tennessee... Northern Cannon County in Middle Tennessee... * Until 915 PM CDT. * At 834 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Lebanon to near Forest Hills, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Murfreesboro, Lebanon, Nashville, Madison, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne, Mount Juliet, Goodlettsville, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Lakewood, Watertown, Hermitage, Walterhill, Rural Hill, Antioch, Belinda City and Old Hickory. This includes the following highways... Interstate 40 between mile markers 204 and 243. Interstate 65 between mile markers 71 and 97. Interstate 24 between mile markers 36 and 84. Interstate 840 between mile markers 36 and 76.
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
ENSO should stay weak one way or another it seems.It's still basically a crap shoot even if it does.Sunspots from ISES shows it peaking at it's lowest in 22-23 winters,but that's not a giving as last winter it was much lower than modeled plus we all expected a moderate Nino which never happened.The last lower cycle that went into 2008-2010 the ENSO was up and down but after the low solar cycle started to rise around 2010 we stayed in a more Nina pattern for ALMOST a couple years with less SSW events.Comparing last winter into the low cycle years into the late 2000's most of the SSW events at least happened into the last part of Jan and even into Feb and not into the last part of Dec. like last year Lots to ponder upcoming it seems to me and no realistic prediction for a out coming based on analogs right now.IMO- 574 replies
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Was wondering when this might pop up Flood Advisory National Weather Service Nashville TN 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 TNC037-149-187-189-042200- /O.NEW.KOHX.FA.Y.0135.190804T2006Z-190804T2200Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Davidson TN-Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Wilson TN- 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Flood Advisory for... Davidson County in Middle Tennessee... Northwestern Rutherford County in Middle Tennessee... Northeastern Williamson County in Middle Tennessee... West central Wilson County in Middle Tennessee... * Until 500 PM CDT. * At 305 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Franklin, Nashville, Madison, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne, Mount Juliet, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Lakewood, Hermitage, Rural Hill, Antioch, Old Hickory, Berry Hill, Whites Creek and Percy Priest Lake. This includes the following highways... Interstate 40 between mile markers 203 and 226. Interstate 65 between mile markers 66 and 93. Interstate 24 between mile markers 40 and 70.
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Some heavy rain and some twig damage,some decent thunder tho
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Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 249 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 TNZ027-059-062-042015- Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN- 249 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DAVIDSON...WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT... At 248 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Nolensville, or 9 miles northeast of Franklin, moving southeast at 15 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne and Nolensville.
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RAOBS shows a boundary hung up into the Valley with lots of convection
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Yeah,looks like another active day today
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#3 this week Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 546 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 TNZ026-027-059-032330- Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN- 546 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAVIDSON...NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON AND SOUTHEASTERN CHEATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT... At 545 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Bellevue, or 10 miles northwest of Franklin, moving east at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 35 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Franklin, Ashland City, Nashville, Brentwood, La Vergne, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Kingston Springs, Pegram, Bellevue, Antioch, Fairview, Berry Hill, Bells Bend and Natchez Trace At Highway 96. This includes the following highways... Interstate 40 between mile markers 188 and 215. Interstate 65 between mile markers 59 and 82. Interstate 24 between mile markers 49 and 63. Interstate 840 between mile markers 31 and 37. Williamson County Fair will also be impacted. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
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- grieving winter
- hoping for sunshine
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