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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Slightly warmer into the thermocline this update as a CCKW is passing through east of the IDL bringing some upwelling.MJO signal looks weak but looks to be into the Maritime in a couple days,least this is what the RMMM's are showing.Jamstec shows an active "Modoki" into fall,maybe we can get an active fall severe for a change
  2. jaxjagman
    Yeah we don't know how the QBO will act,it was negative for over a year before it crapped out into the winter last winter.But this kept the PV weak just as well and we had the early SSWE.If it stays on the positive side we very well could see the PV become a brick
  3. jaxjagman
    Like to see the drought get knocked out some how in the SE this would help delineate a SER this winter.ENSO is quite different from last year right now when it was more east based.Jamstec did well in our parts last winter,warm and wet which is showed in August but it missed the upper plains big time,but this could also be with the help of the early SSWE in Dec
  4. jaxjagman
    Climo has been working the last couple weeks.We haven't had much rain recently here but still are in the top 5 for the year to date.Aug-Oct are typically the dry months in the Valley.Parts of the SE Valley are in a abnormal/moderate drought.Looks unsettled the next few days maybe tho
  5. jaxjagman
    Seems like issues with the internet as a whole today.I can get on some sites rather easily,some sites i can't get on at all.This site might seem to be slow but at least you can access it. Edit:Never mind, i fixed my problem.Site is running ok.My problem was with my Flash
  6. jaxjagman
    it's really slow even on my PC
  7. jaxjagman
    I believe i figured my problem out.I don't think it was this site.I think it was my PC.I switched to my gaming laptop and everything seems fine now.My PC is getting up there in age,believe it's about to bite the dust.:(
  8. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    The SOI finally made it into an more Nina pattern today for 30 days anyways,still has aways for 90 18 Aug 2019 1017.45 1014.60 7.46 0.07 -7.28 17 Aug 2019 1017.60 1014.75 7.46 -0.38 -7.47 16 Aug 2019 1014.80 1015.85 -16.21 -1.04 -7.56 15 Aug 2019 1014.60 1016.25 -19.85 -0.87 -7.26
  9. jaxjagman
    Anyone else having problems with this site?If i stay on this site, American Wx very long it totally kills my memory.Once i close out everything out on my browser it's back to normal until i come back here again.
  10. jaxjagman
    Right,Flash i believe is a winter person,sure he'll come back when winter gets closer
  11. jaxjagman
    In 2012 as the low ice was at it's lowest as said above it went into a more Nina pattern tho the end of the year.Really ,right now don't see this happening if you look down into the thermocline it's still warm deep down right now anyways.But,in Jan of 2013 we really toasted
  12. jaxjagman
    It always helps the forum outside our mets to chime in once in awhile IMHO.We don't have many people in our parts to post much consistently.The Eastern Valley is another story.
  13. jaxjagman
    Sea Ice is on pace to break the record back into 2012 this year,based on records from 1979.We don't know how much it can or will reproduce right now.In the start of 2012 it started out as a weak LaNina per ONI,the first part but went more positive neutral into the summer/autumn but back to negative neutral by "OND" and stayed that way until the spring of 2014.Typically, as you see on the graph the sea ice (loss) does not really peak until Mid Sept. Plus you have to look at the low solar this winter(some say this will be the lowest in over 200 years).I think Jeff mentioned this in another post of, but the wording wasn't the same.How will the low Ice effect the low solar this winter?
  14. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Like the new color scheme,easier to tell if the anoms are on the +/- side.Not much change this update.Probably see a slight change next update as the CCKW is passing by east of the IDL
  15. jaxjagman
  16. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Jamstec is much warmer with the Enso
  17. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    IMME has a neutral tho negative ENSO in the winter
  18. jaxjagman
    Still got a half month to go.Typically here Aug and Oct are our driest month
  19. jaxjagman
    Lost Power for a few minutes but lost Comcast so have no TV or internet.By far the best storms of the year today .
  20. jaxjagman
    Yeah, glad we have AMZ around.Mempho use to post here but post on the other board like Carver mentioned.The only way to get others to join our forum seems to be word of mouth other than drifters. TBH,i understand everyone has an agenda day to day and can't post time to time but it certainly would help if the regs would post more.We have good posters that seem to go AWOL to long.The regs could help and keep the board more active,then everything else could/ would follow...JMHO
  21. jaxjagman
    Looks warm upcoming Monday and Tuesday,especially the western Valley.Could be some strong storms right now Tuesday it seems other than the Southern portions of the Valley.WPC has a slight risk even with FFG east of Nashville.(More rain for John right now it seems,like he hasn't seen to much lately ) CFS shows a ERW into possibly the Caribbean then maybe into the GOM with maybe a dying KW.Either way,could see some tropical genesis into the GOM in the long range.MJO has nothing but weak signals in a few days as it looks to die out right now.
  22. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Last update from CPC seems to reflect on a DWKW which passed through region 3 and 1.2 which had no problem it seems puling those cooler waters to the surface.Still looks warm elsewhere
  23. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    NMME'S updated.CAN and GEM looks like feedback issues from the models,should explain now why CanSIPS looks so not right on Tidbits.
  24. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
  25. jaxjagman
    Saw ya'll were in a TSW and slight risk as well.COMCAST went out for us,lost the TV and internet so i just went to bed last night after it passed.Saw the power was lost for about 25K but luckily we still kept that
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