jaxjagman

CFS continues to be consistent with a WWB east of 120W then runs into a robust Rossby and weakens it,still have to watch out for a potential to initiate a KW,the subsurface continues to warm east of the IDL.

Agree,SE also is getting into a severe drought,we really need something to thump them hard

Surface and subsurface east of the IDL continue to warm,tho it's still cool into the subsurface around east of 120W.CFS shows a WWB making it slightly past 120W before it meets a Rossby wave and weakens it mid month,but this could help initiate a KW east of the IDL,so if were to be right you'd see some slight warming into 3 past the mid month i'd think

Seems like the GFS and Euro met somewhat halfway last night,weak and weaker instability.Nothing much to see right now.Good news i reckon seems like over an inch of rain,least right now.

Be nice to watch and hear some good t-storms Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive pattern at mid/upper levels is forecast through the extended forecast period. An upper trough/low should move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Thursday. A cold front is also expected to shift quickly eastward parts of these regions. Minimal instability is currently shown by medium-range guidance ahead of the front, owing mainly to poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, severe potential Thursday afternoon ahead of the front appears low. Another upper trough should amplify and shift eastward across the western CONUS and into the Plains from Day 4/Thursday into Day 5/Friday. There is still variability with the amplitude of this feature by Day 5/Friday, which impacts the degree of low-level mass response and moisture return across the Plains. Some severe risk may ultimately develop Friday evening/night across part of the central Plains, but this threat may remain rather isolated. There is currently too much uncertainty regarding instability and the evolution of the upper trough to include any probabilities for organized severe thunderstorms. Differences regarding the evolution of the upper trough across the Plains and eastern CONUS become much more pronounced from Day 6/Saturday onward. Still, depending on low-level moisture return, there may be isolated severe potential across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast next weekend into early next week ahead of a cold front. However, overall predictability remains far too low to include any areas at this time.

3.4 is back to 0.5

Enso has warmed east of the IDL recently.CFS today is showing another WWB into week 1 of Oct that looks to make it past 120W into the 2nd week of Oct,this would be the strongest WWB in that area since the first of July. 3.4 has been warming the last couple weeks and for that matter every region has been rising,3,4 should stay that way and make no significant drop,As far as 3 rises much upcoming would depend on a Rossby and Kelvin waves.

We are in our worse drought sorta speaking since since 1954 in the Tn Valley,around Nashville is on pace to be the driest for Sept and even warmest on record with temps of 90 plus for the year,seems like a more LaNina but isnt.i have hard time to believe this will be cold and not warm in our area especially if we don't get any rain upcoming into our dry Oct season upcoming

Possibly 1.2 might be there the next update tomorrow or darn near close..3 has cooled of as well with the CCKW passing through

IMME

By the looks the precip looks wet in Fla with potential severe thunderstorms and wet in California,seems typical Nino.Looks like our typical cold seasons of past where the battle ground is 1-40,crap shoot south

Jamstec,it did really bad last winter

Basically if you look at the maps above what some of the NMMES show there is nothing coupled with the oceans,it has been that way since the inception of this Nino, it could be just like last winter warm and wet but last winter the SST'S were much warmer east of the IDL,unlike this year it seems.There would seem to be depending on the QBO the PV could be weak so there always is a chance of a SSWE INTO winter.But this winter seems like a crap shoot IMHO,with more weight towards warm than cold

NMME is out and don't look great IMO.Tho this looks like a more +PDO,But look how warm the SST is showing into the GOM,this should teleconnect much cooler with the PDO than what is being shown into the GOM,you'd think those SST'S along the west coast would be much colder with the look into the GOM

This is really cool,had to post

Slightly warmer into the thermocline this update as a CCKW is passing through east of the IDL bringing some upwelling.MJO signal looks weak but looks to be into the Maritime in a couple days,least this is what the RMMM's are showing.Jamstec shows an active "Modoki" into fall,maybe we can get an active fall severe for a change

The SOI finally made it into an more Nina pattern today for 30 days anyways,still has aways for 90 18 Aug 2019 1017.45 1014.60 7.46 0.07 -7.28 17 Aug 2019 1017.60 1014.75 7.46 -0.38 -7.47 16 Aug 2019 1014.80 1015.85 -16.21 -1.04 -7.56 15 Aug 2019 1014.60 1016.25 -19.85 -0.87 -7.26

Like the new color scheme,easier to tell if the anoms are on the +/- side.Not much change this update.Probably see a slight change next update as the CCKW is passing by east of the IDL

Jamstec is much warmer with the Enso

IMME has a neutral tho negative ENSO in the winter

Lost Power for a few minutes but lost Comcast so have no TV or internet.By far the best storms of the year today .

Last update from CPC seems to reflect on a DWKW which passed through region 3 and 1.2 which had no problem it seems puling those cooler waters to the surface.Still looks warm elsewhere

NMME'S updated.CAN and GEM looks like feedback issues from the models,should explain now why CanSIPS looks so not right on Tidbits.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf