jaxjagman

Think i'd have moved the slight risk further east,but that's just me Day 1 Valid 01Z Sat Oct 26 2019 - 12Z Sat Oct 26 2019 ...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY... 0100 UTC Update...Tweaks to the day 1 ERO were based largely on the latest observational trends. Unfortunately, even the most recent high-res CAM guidance is having difficulty with the QPF within the tropical plume ahead of Olga, as it becomes absorbed within the robust warm conveyor belt (wcb) ahead of the deepening trough. Model QPFs have been underdone, particularly over eastern LA, and particularly east of the MS-AL border.

Looks like the models missed the strong low level jet in Western Alabama

Models seem to be doing the crap job,the plume of moisture to the east right now should be to the west

Cut the stamp date off,edited to correct

Definite would be a line of severe thunderstorms into the OV down into the Lower MS Valley with SW deep layer shear with DP's into the upper 60's,it would boot,scoot and boogie across the Valley being west of the Ms River and 12 hrs later be into the Carolinas,something to watch anyways.

Euro has an old fashioned autumn cold front Halloween evening coming through the Valley,i say old fashioned because we haven't seen one in a few years where temps could drop behind it 15-20 degrees after it passes right after.First time it's showed it so use caution

Must have been a brutal warm winter that winter in our parts with the PDO crashing in fall into winter https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1952.9933398?journalCode=vwws20

Would like to see a good analog for this winter pattern,doubt you'll find one,last season we was warm and wet.The IOD from Sintex and even the CFS don't show the IOD breaking down soon,but Sintex does show it weaken in which i said above to + 1.104 in mid Nov.What's even more odd the strongest reading in Nov was back into 1997 in a strong Nino where it hit 1.528,there has never been into Nov this reading and yet alone over +1 ever since 1870,really think the SST'S are going to be much warmer than what some of these seasonals are showing upcoming,right now anyways.

Have to wait and see into next weekend,WPC seems to be going half way with the Euro and GFS but right now the GFS is much faster.Euro shows the upper level ridge building into the Valley,with a more Bermuda high with a warm front lifting into the lower OV, this would put the Valley into the warm sector,but the lapse rates look really poor right now.But either way what the Euro shows right now this should be some sort of flood threat somewhere in the Valley with the low level shear getting cranked up along with the LLJ,least that what it shows right now

Should keep an eye out seemingly towards the 2nd week of Nov,seems signs of another WWB upcoming which could help initiate a Kelvin,into east of the IDL

We'll have to wait and see what happens,right now.The pattern we are in right now with the MJO being stuck MORE into the western IO due to the low into the eastern IO that seemingly that is not going to end anytime soon .The MJO signal right now is warm but yet unstable,this could be one of the best severe falls we've seen in some time,seemingly right now

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, into portions of the lower Ohio Valley, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... Rather amplified large-scale troughing over the interior U.S. may take on more of a negative tilt while progressing across the Mississippi Valley during this period. Smaller-scale embedded perturbations/developments remain more unclear due to sizable spread within model output, but it does appear that there may be substantive further deepening of the primary associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone. The center of this feature is expected to migrate from the mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest Monday through Monday night, with an occluding surface front surging east of the Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachians. Lapse rates within much of the moistening portion of the warm sector of the cyclone are generally forecast to remain weak, which may limit CAPE to around 500-1000 J/kg within a pre-frontal plume across the lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow may include 50-70 kt at 850 mb, and 70-90+ kt at 500 mb, but there may be a tendency for the strongest deep-layer mean wind fields to shift north of the destabilizing warm sector early in the period. Still, there appears potential for the environment to become conducive to the development of a combination of one or more broken lines of storms and discrete supercells, particularly during the day Monday across Louisiana, Mississippi, and adjacent portions of southeast Arkansas and western Alabama, into portions of middle Tennessee, which probably will be accompanied by a risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

This should update in the morning,but you don't see those cold SST'S -2 down into the subsurface no more,you actually see a warm nose poking in 120-130 W

And you are right,we went into a Nino into winter.The OBS today from Jamstec is at +1.236 right now today by mid Nov it's showing to be at +1.104

Positive IOD is the strongest since 1994,1997 and 2006.no signs of letting go right now. During these years and using the starting point of the last ONI this year with "JAS" which is right now at 0.1,but is subject to change possibly in the future. In the year 1994 during "JAS" the ONI started at +0.4 and at the end of this year "OND" ended in a moderate Nino 1.1 During 1997 during "JAS" 1.9 and ended up being the 2nd strongest Nino 2.4 into "OND" based on the ONI since 1950 2006 "JAS" probably started closer than any other year "JAS" 0.3 and ended up close to a moderate Nino in "OND" 0.9

Subtle changes each run by the Euro.OZ run Euro wants to develop a potent shortwave into the lower MS/Valley which comes through west of Nashville OZ Tuesday. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Day 4/Saturday: A weak upper shortwave trough over eastern portions of the Plains on Saturday will quickly lift northeast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sweep across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes while stalling over the southern Plains. Meanwhile, guidance varies on the intensity of a tropical disturbance as it tracks near the northern Gulf coast/southeastern U.S. on Saturday. Reference the Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center for more details on this system. How this low evolves could influence severe potential across parts of the northern and eastern Gulf coast states into GA/SC on Saturday, though severe potential appears low at this time. Days 5-7/Sunday-Tuesday: Severe potential is expected to increase on Sunday as a more intense shortwave trough ejects eastward from the Rockies into the Plains on Monday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will develop from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest as the trough deepens over the Plains. The ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement over the position of an intensifying surface low compared to yesterday, with the low tracking across SD through the afternoon before lifting northeast into MN overnight. A trailing cold front will push eastward across the Plains, with some timing differences among various guidance. Despite this, models are fairly consistent in moist return flow bringing 60s surface dewpoints northward to at least the Ozark Plateau eastward toward the Mid-South. At least a narrow corridor of severe potential is expected ahead of the cold front where a favorable combination of instability, steepening midlevel lapse rates, strong shear and upper forcing for ascent will align. Over the past few days, this corridor has been most consistently indicated by medium-range guidance across parts of north TX, eastern OK into adjacent parts of KS/MO/AR. Confidence has increased sufficiently to include 15% severe probabilities, through this area likely will change some in come days as forecast details hopefully become more clear. A severe threat could continue into Monday across parts of the mid/lower MS Valley vicinity eastward toward the Appalachians as the cold front continues to surge eastward. A very moist airmass will be in place downstream of the front, but timing differences in the eastward progression of the front among various model output is large, decreasing forecast confidence. The cold front will continue to shift eastward across the eastern U.S. and is expected to move offshore most of the Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning. Depending on timing, some severe threat is possible across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, but again, confidence remains low.

JAMSTEC ,more central -west based but not as warm as the last update where it looked like a more weak Nino,now looks more neutral,not really a whole lot of change tho with the 2M's from the last update

Hagibis is still going to be a player into next weekend along with seemingly a Kelvin Wave into the Gulf which is being shown right now,next weekend and maybe into the first of the week after right now to me could be rather volatile

Ongoing WWB east of the IDL has been warming 3.4,this should last maybe a couple more weeks until the WWB passes and weakens with even more warming east of the IDL even into region 3 also even have to see what a Kelvin does,after this nothing really showing up other than some weak easterlies into Nov seemingly right now,Should see 3.4 get bumped up from 0.5 up tomorrow when the weekly ENSO update comes out

MJO signal looks weak again.Just when you would think the IO would die off again it get's resurrected by easterlies killing the MJO signal.This also looks like this could be the strongest easterlies upcoming the next several days into the IO,maybe it will move forward the end of the month?See what happens,looks like a warm up into the end of the month into the first of Nov tho

Pattern looks really volatile,not only do you have Harigis that's going to spin off Japan you have to look into the GOM for at least a tropical wave which could develop from a Kelvin,good luck with the long range

3.4 and 3 are slightly rising today.WWB headed east of the IDL today looks to strenghten some what and kicks up a Kelvin,should have to wait and see tho what kind of upwelling it does as warm as the waters are into the subsurface into 3.4,not much going on after this seemingly for several days so eyes should be on if the MJO gets finally active which it seems could be finally moving into the IO

Hagibis is crushing Japan,some amazing pics being posted on twitter https://twitter.com/search?q=japan&src=typd