jaxjagman

You put alot of insight in your forecast,i really respect this,you could be right.But the IO shows signs which i thought the IO might die out but seemingly will get even possibly stronger.I still would like to see if the MJO is nothing but noise and see if a Kelvin will initiate around east or west of the IDL upcoming with seemingly still a WWB upcoming.Either way this is going to effect the ENSO around the IDL and east upcoming into the 2nd week of Nov and beyond

Still don't think you will find a great analog this winter.When you have these strong signals into the IO which i talked about in the ENSO thread into the first part of Nov you should see a more negative PDO unlike we see right now,tho the PDO recently is certaintly taking a hit.You should right now see the SST'S around 160E be much cooler than what we see right now like what 1994,97 and 2006 was,2019 is much warmer.

The BOM and SINTEX have different readings which you'd expect anyways of the DMI.BOM shows the DMI as been the highest ever a week or two ago at( 2.16.)While Sintex shows the highest peak was Nov 14,1997 at (2.202). 1994 by SINTEX came in 3rd when it peaked in Mid Oct of that year at (2.082) During or after the peak both of these years 1994,1997 the ONI rose into into a stronger Nino into winter on the ONI 1994 went into a moderate Nino 1997 went into the the 2ND strongest Nino ever The following year 1995 and 1998 went into a Nina in" JJA." on the tri-monthlies (-0.5) IN 1995 which ended up a moderate Nina into the winter months (-0.8) IN 1998 which ended up a very strong Nina into that winter but this was a very long lived Nina in whole that last until early 2001

Nice,but that would just be such a big tease to me Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 844 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 TNZ088-311545- Shelby- Including the cities of Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, and Millington 844 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...Light snow falling over portions of Shelby County... A band of light snow was falling across portions of southeastern Shelby County, and may affect portions of Germantown and Collierville in the next 15 to 20 minutes. This light snow is not expected to accumulate.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast States to the Cumberland Plateau through early morning Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast to the Cumberland Plateau... Two primary convective scenarios are apparent through the period. A leading low-level warm advection regime is supporting a swath of ongoing showers with embedded thunder from the central Gulf Coast through AL. A belt of strong low-level flow centered on northern AL will pivot northeast, becoming increasingly separated from the gradient of weak buoyancy to the south. Poor mid-level lapse rates and pervasive stratus should support only meager buoyancy overlapping where enlarged low-level hodographs can persist. While it seems unlikely that any of the clusters will have sustained intensification, a low probability risk for locally strong gusts and a brief tornado will exist through the afternoon. Upstream convective development will be tied to an initially weak warm conveyor region across the Lower MS Valley. Some thinning of cloud coverage is apparent across southern LA into far southern MS which should aid in a confined plume of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg at peak heating). This should aid in late afternoon/early evening storm development just ahead of a weak surface cyclone tracking from the Sabine Valley to the Ark-La-Miss. However, the bulk of strong mid/upper-level flow attendant to a shortwave trough ejecting from the southern Rockies to the Lower MO Valley will lag behind the warm sector through mid to late evening. Cyclogenesis will ensue farther north tonight as tropospheric flow amplifies. However, stronger shear and forcing for ascent should remain misaligned north of where the northern extent of weak surface-based buoyancy can advect across portions of northern MS/AL to middle/eastern TN. The most likely scenario is still for low probability coverage of wind/tornado hazards across the Lower MS and TN Valleys, though the region will be monitored for a possible level 2 categorical risk in later updates.

Not much change this update

By the CFS the IOD is showing to maybe finally breaking down past the Mid month.the RMMM's will be nothing but noise until then.still looks like at least some sort of WWB into the 2nd week of Nov that could possibly bring a Kelvin east of the IDL.Maybe and seemingly the MJO will become relevant once again and move past the mid month and more into the 3rd week of Nov.

Have to wait and see upcoming,both the GFS and Euro this afternoon shows a chance of severe thunderstorms even Wed NOW.The last run of the Euro, last nights 0Z run compared to this afternoons run has sped the front up almost 6 hours and now brings it across the Mid Valley now 18z Thursday and then to the east but it strenghtens the LLJ as it seemingly crosses east of I-65,GFS is still faster and WPC shows it as the outlier.Looks like the heaviest rain by the Euro is east of I-65 could get 3-4",could even be higher with convection

Those straight line winds must have been howling

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent runs of the medium-range guidance have come into better agreement regarding the position of a deep and broad upper trough expected to be over the CONUS on D4/Tuesday. Model consensus now places this trough from the Hudson Bay through northern CA at 12Z D4/Tuesday. Model consensus regarding the overall evolution of this upper trough is also good, although the speed of eastward progression differs. The faster GFS solution is currently the outlier. Progression of this system and its attendant cold front will dictate the quality of moisture return ahead of it as well as the location for any potential severe thunderstorms. Some severe threat may materialize across the Southeast/TN Valley mid-week but model differences are too high for enough forecast confidence to outlook any areas.

We'll see what happens,i'll start posting on the severe thread tho after this if tomorrows runs shows it.The EPS shows this as well other than timing could be a wicked CF cutting trough the Valley

Think i'd have moved the slight risk further east,but that's just me Day 1 Valid 01Z Sat Oct 26 2019 - 12Z Sat Oct 26 2019 ...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY... 0100 UTC Update...Tweaks to the day 1 ERO were based largely on the latest observational trends. Unfortunately, even the most recent high-res CAM guidance is having difficulty with the QPF within the tropical plume ahead of Olga, as it becomes absorbed within the robust warm conveyor belt (wcb) ahead of the deepening trough. Model QPFs have been underdone, particularly over eastern LA, and particularly east of the MS-AL border.

Looks like the models missed the strong low level jet in Western Alabama

Models seem to be doing the crap job,the plume of moisture to the east right now should be to the west

Cut the stamp date off,edited to correct

Definite would be a line of severe thunderstorms into the OV down into the Lower MS Valley with SW deep layer shear with DP's into the upper 60's,it would boot,scoot and boogie across the Valley being west of the Ms River and 12 hrs later be into the Carolinas,something to watch anyways.

Euro has an old fashioned autumn cold front Halloween evening coming through the Valley,i say old fashioned because we haven't seen one in a few years where temps could drop behind it 15-20 degrees after it passes right after.First time it's showed it so use caution

Must have been a brutal warm winter that winter in our parts with the PDO crashing in fall into winter https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1952.9933398?journalCode=vwws20

Would like to see a good analog for this winter pattern,doubt you'll find one,last season we was warm and wet.The IOD from Sintex and even the CFS don't show the IOD breaking down soon,but Sintex does show it weaken in which i said above to + 1.104 in mid Nov.What's even more odd the strongest reading in Nov was back into 1997 in a strong Nino where it hit 1.528,there has never been into Nov this reading and yet alone over +1 ever since 1870,really think the SST'S are going to be much warmer than what some of these seasonals are showing upcoming,right now anyways.

Have to wait and see into next weekend,WPC seems to be going half way with the Euro and GFS but right now the GFS is much faster.Euro shows the upper level ridge building into the Valley,with a more Bermuda high with a warm front lifting into the lower OV, this would put the Valley into the warm sector,but the lapse rates look really poor right now.But either way what the Euro shows right now this should be some sort of flood threat somewhere in the Valley with the low level shear getting cranked up along with the LLJ,least that what it shows right now

Should keep an eye out seemingly towards the 2nd week of Nov,seems signs of another WWB upcoming which could help initiate a Kelvin,into east of the IDL

We'll have to wait and see what happens,right now.The pattern we are in right now with the MJO being stuck MORE into the western IO due to the low into the eastern IO that seemingly that is not going to end anytime soon .The MJO signal right now is warm but yet unstable,this could be one of the best severe falls we've seen in some time,seemingly right now

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, into portions of the lower Ohio Valley, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... Rather amplified large-scale troughing over the interior U.S. may take on more of a negative tilt while progressing across the Mississippi Valley during this period. Smaller-scale embedded perturbations/developments remain more unclear due to sizable spread within model output, but it does appear that there may be substantive further deepening of the primary associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone. The center of this feature is expected to migrate from the mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest Monday through Monday night, with an occluding surface front surging east of the Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachians. Lapse rates within much of the moistening portion of the warm sector of the cyclone are generally forecast to remain weak, which may limit CAPE to around 500-1000 J/kg within a pre-frontal plume across the lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow may include 50-70 kt at 850 mb, and 70-90+ kt at 500 mb, but there may be a tendency for the strongest deep-layer mean wind fields to shift north of the destabilizing warm sector early in the period. Still, there appears potential for the environment to become conducive to the development of a combination of one or more broken lines of storms and discrete supercells, particularly during the day Monday across Louisiana, Mississippi, and adjacent portions of southeast Arkansas and western Alabama, into portions of middle Tennessee, which probably will be accompanied by a risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes.