jaxjagman

Have to wait and see what these look like the next week or two with a KW moving across the IDL,3 could take a big spike upwards

Put the low like the GEFS shows the PDO will certainly get warmer and not cooler..just saying

Should see when the IOD shows these winds in this time of season right now the ENSO rises but yet the PDO craps out.Could happen but looks quite opposite right now,i posted some pics up above

Think we'll have to see in the long range is if the Low sets up south of the Aluetians,if this does this should be a more +PNA and the warm up should not be that horrid,unlike last year anyways.This pattern looks so weird to me with what is going on into the IO

Have to wait and see upcoming the MJO looks fairly strong today into the Maritime with sytems coming off East Asia,even a tropical system recurving around 150E,you ceratintly see the CF coming off of Japan today which should be our CF towards the end of the work week then the Euro shows another a couple days later,we'll see how it plays out

To bad this isn't showing this 2-3 days out.Mr.Bob will probably pound me if he sees this..lol

Definite would be some BN temps upcoming ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z NOV03 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 03-NOV -9.3 -9.5 8 -10 -4 -10 SUN 18Z 03-NOV 1.4 -7.0 6 -1 -3 -7 MON 00Z 04-NOV -3.7 -3.5 3 -8 -3 -5 MON 06Z 04-NOV -7.0 -2.7 3 -25 -2 -4 MON 12Z 04-NOV -7.5 -3.2 4 -15 -2 -4 MON 18Z 04-NOV 5.0 -2.0 2 -8 -1 -3 TUE 00Z 05-NOV -0.4 -1.1 2 1066 -5 39.33 -1 -2 TUE 06Z 05-NOV -4.6 -2.2 4 1087 -9 39.33 -1 -4 TUE 12Z 05-NOV -4.4 -3.4 6 1088 45 39.33 -2 -6 TUE 18Z 05-NOV 6.0 -3.5 6 1055 2 39.33 1 -4 WED 00Z 06-NOV 0.5 -3.3 7 -17 3 -2 WED 06Z 06-NOV -4.1 -1.0 9 -15 5 -2 WED 12Z 06-NOV -4.7 0.7 9 1 6 -1 WED 18Z 06-NOV 8.5 2.6 6 9 7 2 THU 00Z 07-NOV 3.5 2.3 4 42 6 3 THU 06Z 07-NOV 2.1 2.7 3 41 6 3 THU 12Z 07-NOV 2.1 2.7 2 19 4 2 THU 18Z 07-NOV 5.9 2.1 -1 29 1 2 FRI 00Z 08-NOV 2.4 0.7 -1 56 -1 0 FRI 06Z 08-NOV -6.2 -6.2 6 -35 -4 -8 FRI 12Z 08-NOV -10.0 -12.7 10 -40 -8 -14 FRI 18Z 08-NOV -5.7 -13.9 10 -35 -9 -16 SAT 00Z 09-NOV -8.8 -9.9 10 -27 -8 -15 SAT 06Z 09-NOV -11.9 -5.6 10 -36 -5 -12 SAT 12Z 09-NOV -13.1 -4.5 9 -34 -5 -11 SAT 18Z 09-NOV -1.2 -4.1 5 5 -4 -7 SUN 00Z 10-NOV -3.9 -1.9 2 41 -3 -4 SUN 06Z 10-NOV -6.0 -2.1 2 6 -3 -4 SUN 12Z 10-NOV -6.5 -0.8 2 2 -3 -4 SUN 18Z 10-NOV 4.6 3.0 -1 12 -1 0 MON 00Z 11-NOV 0.7 2.5 -2 2 0 2 MON 06Z 11-NOV -2.4 -1.7 -1 -10 -1 0 MON 12Z 11-NOV -4.1 -2.6 0 -16 -3 -3 MON 18Z 11-NOV -4.4 -5.3 3 -3 -5 -7 TUE 00Z 12-NOV -8.8 -10.8 7 55 -9 -13 TUE 06Z 12-NOV -11.8 -18.0 12 26 -16 -24 TUE 12Z 12-NOV -15.8 -18.7 15 -36 -21 -31 TUE 18Z 12-NOV -9.6 -17.7 14 -32 -16 -26 WED 00Z 13-NOV -11.7 -14.6 13 -34 -7 -16 WED 06Z 13-NOV -13.3 -7.5 11 -36 -3 -10 WED 12Z 13-NOV -14.8 -6.5 11 -36 -1 -9

Have to wait and see,cold front towards the end of the work week then another reinforcing front that would bring some snow,would be pretty cold for early Nov ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z NOV03 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 12Z 03-NOV 34.7 30.8 12003 0 SUN 18Z 03-NOV 53.9 33.1 54.0 31.0 18002 0 MON 00Z 04-NOV 55.4 44.3 44.4 34.8 13004 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 04-NOV 44.8 38.4 38.4 34.3 17004 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 04-NOV 38.6 37.2 37.6 33.1 18005 0.00 0.00 47 MON 18Z 04-NOV 59.9 37.6 60.2 36.8 21006 0.00 0.00 81 TUE 00Z 05-NOV 61.4 50.3 50.0 39.4 19005 0.00 0.00 5 TUE 06Z 05-NOV 50.0 42.6 42.5 39.2 20004 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 12Z 05-NOV 43.8 41.0 42.8 39.9 31002 0.00 0.00 57 TUE 18Z 05-NOV 61.4 42.8 61.5 46.0 35003 0.00 0.00 2 WED 00Z 06-NOV 62.3 51.3 51.2 44.4 00005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 06-NOV 51.2 42.7 43.0 38.2 09004 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 06-NOV 43.4 40.1 41.9 39.3 10003 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 06-NOV 65.3 39.8 65.6 44.3 17006 0.00 0.00 7 THU 00Z 07-NOV 67.6 56.4 56.3 47.5 21002 0.01 0.00 66 THU 06Z 07-NOV 56.4 53.0 53.8 48.3 17005 0.00 0.00 61 THU 12Z 07-NOV 54.1 52.3 53.8 51.0 18005 0.00 0.00 100 THU 18Z 07-NOV 61.1 53.7 60.6 58.8 21005 0.06 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 08-NOV 60.7 54.3 54.0 53.7 33009 0.30 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 08-NOV 53.9 38.6 38.5 33.2 35012 0.04 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 08-NOV 38.5 31.7 31.6 23.0 00009 0.00 0.00 6 FRI 18Z 08-NOV 39.2 31.3 39.3 17.2 35009 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 00Z 09-NOV 40.1 33.5 33.4 16.4 35006 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 09-NOV 33.4 28.0 27.9 18.5 03003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 09-NOV 27.9 25.4 25.7 20.1 08003 0.00 0.00 91 SAT 18Z 09-NOV 46.8 25.7 47.1 22.0 21006 0.00 0.00 25 SUN 00Z 10-NOV 50.4 42.1 42.0 27.2 20006 0.00 0.00 11 SUN 06Z 10-NOV 42.0 38.1 38.0 28.8 21005 0.00 0.00 10 SUN 12Z 10-NOV 38.1 37.1 37.1 30.9 20006 0.00 0.00 96 SUN 18Z 10-NOV 57.0 37.2 57.3 36.3 21008 0.00 0.00 24 MON 00Z 11-NOV 59.7 50.0 49.8 38.2 20006 0.00 0.00 84 MON 06Z 11-NOV 49.8 44.4 44.3 38.5 21006 0.00 0.00 11 MON 12Z 11-NOV 44.4 40.8 41.2 39.0 30003 0.00 0.00 66 MON 18Z 11-NOV 46.0 38.9 40.7 34.0 36009 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 40.7 32.5 32.4 26.7 35009 0.05 0.04 100 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 32.4 27.0 27.0 15.7 35010 0.10 0.10 14 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 27.0 19.9 19.8 9.3 36008 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 12-NOV 30.7 19.6 30.9 9.6 01008 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 13-NOV 32.6 26.8 26.7 13.6 02005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 13-NOV 26.7 23.8 23.9 13.5 09005 0.00 0.00 94 WED 12Z 13-NOV 24.0 20.9 21.2 12.9 11003 0.00 0.00 30

Subsurface continues to warm east of the IDL,into the IO there looks to be a Rossby Wave that will weaken the ongoing winds for a few days but towards the Mid month they look like they will return once again.By the looks right now the MJO seems to reappear in East Afica towards the middle of Nov then stall out once again into the western IO,have to wait to see if it might happen,but sure looks that way right now

Not sure about 1954 but we'll see,that was a LaNina starting into srping that year that lasted into fall of 1956

lol...yeah,i still remember Mr.Bob told me to stop using analogs years ago

Looks like some ups and downs.Possibly like you mentioned a decent cold front towards the end of the work week,East Asia looks active upcoming which would be more of the MJO moving across the Maritime.Temps could/probably moderate upwards towards the mid month as the MJO is moving across some unfavorable phases for this time of year. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z NOV02 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 12Z 02-NOV 31.8 28.9 24002 0 SAT 18Z 02-NOV 50.0 31.7 50.1 26.7 26006 0 SUN 00Z 03-NOV 51.0 41.6 41.5 25.9 28006 0.00 0.00 1 SUN 06Z 03-NOV 41.5 35.0 35.4 30.4 28003 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 03-NOV 35.7 30.9 30.9 28.3 32002 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 03-NOV 48.5 30.9 48.6 26.3 28002 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 04-NOV 49.9 41.7 41.9 32.0 16002 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 04-NOV 41.9 34.4 34.5 31.1 11003 0.00 0.00 2 MON 12Z 04-NOV 37.0 33.2 34.7 29.4 15003 0.00 0.00 34 MON 18Z 04-NOV 57.3 34.7 57.5 32.8 24003 0.00 0.00 79 TUE 00Z 05-NOV 58.5 46.6 45.8 36.0 16002 0.00 0.00 10 TUE 06Z 05-NOV 46.2 39.1 40.4 33.3 20002 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 05-NOV 41.0 35.9 36.6 32.4 19002 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 05-NOV 57.4 36.5 57.5 39.2 27005 0.00 0.00 17 WED 00Z 06-NOV 58.4 48.5 48.4 40.9 28004 0.00 0.00 5 WED 06Z 06-NOV 48.4 39.8 40.3 38.1 08002 0.00 0.00 1 WED 12Z 06-NOV 41.0 34.8 34.9 34.2 08002 0.00 0.00 75 WED 18Z 06-NOV 62.4 34.9 62.5 36.2 25004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 00Z 07-NOV 63.2 52.3 52.2 43.1 20003 0.00 0.00 44 THU 06Z 07-NOV 52.5 45.5 45.5 42.2 14002 0.00 0.00 27 THU 12Z 07-NOV 46.5 43.5 45.0 41.8 14003 0.00 0.00 99 THU 18Z 07-NOV 57.6 44.9 57.4 46.5 18002 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 08-NOV 61.0 51.2 51.1 50.9 00002 0.10 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 08-NOV 52.0 39.5 39.2 38.6 34008 0.77 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 08-NOV 39.2 30.6 30.6 22.0 34008 0.02 0.00 99 FRI 18Z 08-NOV 36.6 30.1 36.8 13.3 34009 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 09-NOV 37.5 29.8 29.7 15.1 32006 0.00 0.00 19 SAT 06Z 09-NOV 29.7 24.4 24.3 14.8 03003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 09-NOV 24.5 22.0 22.4 14.3 09003 0.00 0.00 3 SAT 18Z 09-NOV 44.9 22.4 45.2 15.8 26003 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 00Z 10-NOV 47.5 37.5 37.4 24.0 21005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 10-NOV 37.6 33.0 34.6 26.8 21002 0.00 0.00 96 SUN 12Z 10-NOV 35.1 31.7 32.6 25.3 18003 0.00 0.00 4 SUN 18Z 10-NOV 54.6 32.4 54.9 25.3 24007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 11-NOV 56.5 44.9 44.7 33.7 22004 0.00 0.00 8 MON 06Z 11-NOV 44.9 37.0 37.2 30.0 18002 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 11-NOV 40.4 34.4 34.9 27.9 18002 0.00 0.00 0 MON 18Z 11-NOV 57.6 34.8 57.8 37.3 23006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 59.0 48.5 48.5 41.6 24005 0.00 0.00 97 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 48.6 45.4 46.3 43.2 23004 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 46.5 44.0 44.0 43.3 23003 0.00 0.00 78

I wouldn't make no prediction right now,but yeah you'd rather see the SST's furher west and not east,not sure that will happen right now

Yes and no

You put alot of insight in your forecast,i really respect this,you could be right.But the IO shows signs which i thought the IO might die out but seemingly will get even possibly stronger.I still would like to see if the MJO is nothing but noise and see if a Kelvin will initiate around east or west of the IDL upcoming with seemingly still a WWB upcoming.Either way this is going to effect the ENSO around the IDL and east upcoming into the 2nd week of Nov and beyond

Still don't think you will find a great analog this winter.When you have these strong signals into the IO which i talked about in the ENSO thread into the first part of Nov you should see a more negative PDO unlike we see right now,tho the PDO recently is certaintly taking a hit.You should right now see the SST'S around 160E be much cooler than what we see right now like what 1994,97 and 2006 was,2019 is much warmer.

The BOM and SINTEX have different readings which you'd expect anyways of the DMI.BOM shows the DMI as been the highest ever a week or two ago at( 2.16.)While Sintex shows the highest peak was Nov 14,1997 at (2.202). 1994 by SINTEX came in 3rd when it peaked in Mid Oct of that year at (2.082) During or after the peak both of these years 1994,1997 the ONI rose into into a stronger Nino into winter on the ONI 1994 went into a moderate Nino 1997 went into the the 2ND strongest Nino ever The following year 1995 and 1998 went into a Nina in" JJA." on the tri-monthlies (-0.5) IN 1995 which ended up a moderate Nina into the winter months (-0.8) IN 1998 which ended up a very strong Nina into that winter but this was a very long lived Nina in whole that last until early 2001

Nice,but that would just be such a big tease to me Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 844 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 TNZ088-311545- Shelby- Including the cities of Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, and Millington 844 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...Light snow falling over portions of Shelby County... A band of light snow was falling across portions of southeastern Shelby County, and may affect portions of Germantown and Collierville in the next 15 to 20 minutes. This light snow is not expected to accumulate.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast States to the Cumberland Plateau through early morning Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast to the Cumberland Plateau... Two primary convective scenarios are apparent through the period. A leading low-level warm advection regime is supporting a swath of ongoing showers with embedded thunder from the central Gulf Coast through AL. A belt of strong low-level flow centered on northern AL will pivot northeast, becoming increasingly separated from the gradient of weak buoyancy to the south. Poor mid-level lapse rates and pervasive stratus should support only meager buoyancy overlapping where enlarged low-level hodographs can persist. While it seems unlikely that any of the clusters will have sustained intensification, a low probability risk for locally strong gusts and a brief tornado will exist through the afternoon. Upstream convective development will be tied to an initially weak warm conveyor region across the Lower MS Valley. Some thinning of cloud coverage is apparent across southern LA into far southern MS which should aid in a confined plume of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg at peak heating). This should aid in late afternoon/early evening storm development just ahead of a weak surface cyclone tracking from the Sabine Valley to the Ark-La-Miss. However, the bulk of strong mid/upper-level flow attendant to a shortwave trough ejecting from the southern Rockies to the Lower MO Valley will lag behind the warm sector through mid to late evening. Cyclogenesis will ensue farther north tonight as tropospheric flow amplifies. However, stronger shear and forcing for ascent should remain misaligned north of where the northern extent of weak surface-based buoyancy can advect across portions of northern MS/AL to middle/eastern TN. The most likely scenario is still for low probability coverage of wind/tornado hazards across the Lower MS and TN Valleys, though the region will be monitored for a possible level 2 categorical risk in later updates.

Not much change this update

By the CFS the IOD is showing to maybe finally breaking down past the Mid month.the RMMM's will be nothing but noise until then.still looks like at least some sort of WWB into the 2nd week of Nov that could possibly bring a Kelvin east of the IDL.Maybe and seemingly the MJO will become relevant once again and move past the mid month and more into the 3rd week of Nov.

Have to wait and see upcoming,both the GFS and Euro this afternoon shows a chance of severe thunderstorms even Wed NOW.The last run of the Euro, last nights 0Z run compared to this afternoons run has sped the front up almost 6 hours and now brings it across the Mid Valley now 18z Thursday and then to the east but it strenghtens the LLJ as it seemingly crosses east of I-65,GFS is still faster and WPC shows it as the outlier.Looks like the heaviest rain by the Euro is east of I-65 could get 3-4",could even be higher with convection

Those straight line winds must have been howling

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent runs of the medium-range guidance have come into better agreement regarding the position of a deep and broad upper trough expected to be over the CONUS on D4/Tuesday. Model consensus now places this trough from the Hudson Bay through northern CA at 12Z D4/Tuesday. Model consensus regarding the overall evolution of this upper trough is also good, although the speed of eastward progression differs. The faster GFS solution is currently the outlier. Progression of this system and its attendant cold front will dictate the quality of moisture return ahead of it as well as the location for any potential severe thunderstorms. Some severe threat may materialize across the Southeast/TN Valley mid-week but model differences are too high for enough forecast confidence to outlook any areas.

We'll see what happens,i'll start posting on the severe thread tho after this if tomorrows runs shows it.The EPS shows this as well other than timing could be a wicked CF cutting trough the Valley