jaxjagman

Have to wait several more runs for us in the Valley,when you see these systems into the China Sea they can seemingly could be more suppressed systems into the GOM,The NAO looks more neutral by the GEFS just as well so i wouldn't discount the GFS as being right and the system just cuts through Florida,actually the Euro shpwed this on the OZ.Posted the Euro 5h from this afternoon and last nights .Something to watch anyways,but this seemingly has to be more a perfect storm for us right now

Control(EPS) run bombs you guys out in the east,not so much for the central and west.Euro show about 6" for us and 3-4" in the west but less in the east.Be a nice hit for you guys in the east if it's right or even close to be right

Models today show 1) Ridge in East Mongolia 2) ULL into the Sea of Okhotsk 3) Trough in the East China Sea.Would seem to teleconnect somewhat.Looks like the AO is going to tank mid month,have to wait and see for more runs

Euro shows the plateau region getting the most snow anywhere in the lower 48

Who knows,that run tho looks like more sleet than snow for us,we only have to wait about 20 more runs of the GFS to go...lol

Probably have to wait and see just as well if those soundings are corrupt just as well,i was looking at also the 850mb map, looks much colder than those skew-t's,always hate seeing cold chasing moisture in our parts

Yeah SW winds bringing up the dreaded nose,looks more a mix,in our parts

Yeahh,could see a nice storm upcoming with the SOI.Have to wait and see how it plays out

Not a whole lot of change from the last update,you have your cold and warm,gonna be tough to get a Nina into winter with what the subsurface looks like right now.Not really sure what the GEM and Nasa is looking at into winter

NMME

Have to wait and see what these look like the next week or two with a KW moving across the IDL,3 could take a big spike upwards

Put the low like the GEFS shows the PDO will certainly get warmer and not cooler..just saying

Should see when the IOD shows these winds in this time of season right now the ENSO rises but yet the PDO craps out.Could happen but looks quite opposite right now,i posted some pics up above

Think we'll have to see in the long range is if the Low sets up south of the Aluetians,if this does this should be a more +PNA and the warm up should not be that horrid,unlike last year anyways.This pattern looks so weird to me with what is going on into the IO

Have to wait and see upcoming the MJO looks fairly strong today into the Maritime with sytems coming off East Asia,even a tropical system recurving around 150E,you ceratintly see the CF coming off of Japan today which should be our CF towards the end of the work week then the Euro shows another a couple days later,we'll see how it plays out

To bad this isn't showing this 2-3 days out.Mr.Bob will probably pound me if he sees this..lol

Definite would be some BN temps upcoming ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z NOV03 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 03-NOV -9.3 -9.5 8 -10 -4 -10 SUN 18Z 03-NOV 1.4 -7.0 6 -1 -3 -7 MON 00Z 04-NOV -3.7 -3.5 3 -8 -3 -5 MON 06Z 04-NOV -7.0 -2.7 3 -25 -2 -4 MON 12Z 04-NOV -7.5 -3.2 4 -15 -2 -4 MON 18Z 04-NOV 5.0 -2.0 2 -8 -1 -3 TUE 00Z 05-NOV -0.4 -1.1 2 1066 -5 39.33 -1 -2 TUE 06Z 05-NOV -4.6 -2.2 4 1087 -9 39.33 -1 -4 TUE 12Z 05-NOV -4.4 -3.4 6 1088 45 39.33 -2 -6 TUE 18Z 05-NOV 6.0 -3.5 6 1055 2 39.33 1 -4 WED 00Z 06-NOV 0.5 -3.3 7 -17 3 -2 WED 06Z 06-NOV -4.1 -1.0 9 -15 5 -2 WED 12Z 06-NOV -4.7 0.7 9 1 6 -1 WED 18Z 06-NOV 8.5 2.6 6 9 7 2 THU 00Z 07-NOV 3.5 2.3 4 42 6 3 THU 06Z 07-NOV 2.1 2.7 3 41 6 3 THU 12Z 07-NOV 2.1 2.7 2 19 4 2 THU 18Z 07-NOV 5.9 2.1 -1 29 1 2 FRI 00Z 08-NOV 2.4 0.7 -1 56 -1 0 FRI 06Z 08-NOV -6.2 -6.2 6 -35 -4 -8 FRI 12Z 08-NOV -10.0 -12.7 10 -40 -8 -14 FRI 18Z 08-NOV -5.7 -13.9 10 -35 -9 -16 SAT 00Z 09-NOV -8.8 -9.9 10 -27 -8 -15 SAT 06Z 09-NOV -11.9 -5.6 10 -36 -5 -12 SAT 12Z 09-NOV -13.1 -4.5 9 -34 -5 -11 SAT 18Z 09-NOV -1.2 -4.1 5 5 -4 -7 SUN 00Z 10-NOV -3.9 -1.9 2 41 -3 -4 SUN 06Z 10-NOV -6.0 -2.1 2 6 -3 -4 SUN 12Z 10-NOV -6.5 -0.8 2 2 -3 -4 SUN 18Z 10-NOV 4.6 3.0 -1 12 -1 0 MON 00Z 11-NOV 0.7 2.5 -2 2 0 2 MON 06Z 11-NOV -2.4 -1.7 -1 -10 -1 0 MON 12Z 11-NOV -4.1 -2.6 0 -16 -3 -3 MON 18Z 11-NOV -4.4 -5.3 3 -3 -5 -7 TUE 00Z 12-NOV -8.8 -10.8 7 55 -9 -13 TUE 06Z 12-NOV -11.8 -18.0 12 26 -16 -24 TUE 12Z 12-NOV -15.8 -18.7 15 -36 -21 -31 TUE 18Z 12-NOV -9.6 -17.7 14 -32 -16 -26 WED 00Z 13-NOV -11.7 -14.6 13 -34 -7 -16 WED 06Z 13-NOV -13.3 -7.5 11 -36 -3 -10 WED 12Z 13-NOV -14.8 -6.5 11 -36 -1 -9

Have to wait and see,cold front towards the end of the work week then another reinforcing front that would bring some snow,would be pretty cold for early Nov ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z NOV03 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 12Z 03-NOV 34.7 30.8 12003 0 SUN 18Z 03-NOV 53.9 33.1 54.0 31.0 18002 0 MON 00Z 04-NOV 55.4 44.3 44.4 34.8 13004 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 04-NOV 44.8 38.4 38.4 34.3 17004 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 04-NOV 38.6 37.2 37.6 33.1 18005 0.00 0.00 47 MON 18Z 04-NOV 59.9 37.6 60.2 36.8 21006 0.00 0.00 81 TUE 00Z 05-NOV 61.4 50.3 50.0 39.4 19005 0.00 0.00 5 TUE 06Z 05-NOV 50.0 42.6 42.5 39.2 20004 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 12Z 05-NOV 43.8 41.0 42.8 39.9 31002 0.00 0.00 57 TUE 18Z 05-NOV 61.4 42.8 61.5 46.0 35003 0.00 0.00 2 WED 00Z 06-NOV 62.3 51.3 51.2 44.4 00005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 06-NOV 51.2 42.7 43.0 38.2 09004 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 06-NOV 43.4 40.1 41.9 39.3 10003 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 06-NOV 65.3 39.8 65.6 44.3 17006 0.00 0.00 7 THU 00Z 07-NOV 67.6 56.4 56.3 47.5 21002 0.01 0.00 66 THU 06Z 07-NOV 56.4 53.0 53.8 48.3 17005 0.00 0.00 61 THU 12Z 07-NOV 54.1 52.3 53.8 51.0 18005 0.00 0.00 100 THU 18Z 07-NOV 61.1 53.7 60.6 58.8 21005 0.06 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 08-NOV 60.7 54.3 54.0 53.7 33009 0.30 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 08-NOV 53.9 38.6 38.5 33.2 35012 0.04 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 08-NOV 38.5 31.7 31.6 23.0 00009 0.00 0.00 6 FRI 18Z 08-NOV 39.2 31.3 39.3 17.2 35009 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 00Z 09-NOV 40.1 33.5 33.4 16.4 35006 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 09-NOV 33.4 28.0 27.9 18.5 03003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 09-NOV 27.9 25.4 25.7 20.1 08003 0.00 0.00 91 SAT 18Z 09-NOV 46.8 25.7 47.1 22.0 21006 0.00 0.00 25 SUN 00Z 10-NOV 50.4 42.1 42.0 27.2 20006 0.00 0.00 11 SUN 06Z 10-NOV 42.0 38.1 38.0 28.8 21005 0.00 0.00 10 SUN 12Z 10-NOV 38.1 37.1 37.1 30.9 20006 0.00 0.00 96 SUN 18Z 10-NOV 57.0 37.2 57.3 36.3 21008 0.00 0.00 24 MON 00Z 11-NOV 59.7 50.0 49.8 38.2 20006 0.00 0.00 84 MON 06Z 11-NOV 49.8 44.4 44.3 38.5 21006 0.00 0.00 11 MON 12Z 11-NOV 44.4 40.8 41.2 39.0 30003 0.00 0.00 66 MON 18Z 11-NOV 46.0 38.9 40.7 34.0 36009 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 40.7 32.5 32.4 26.7 35009 0.05 0.04 100 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 32.4 27.0 27.0 15.7 35010 0.10 0.10 14 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 27.0 19.9 19.8 9.3 36008 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 12-NOV 30.7 19.6 30.9 9.6 01008 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 13-NOV 32.6 26.8 26.7 13.6 02005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 13-NOV 26.7 23.8 23.9 13.5 09005 0.00 0.00 94 WED 12Z 13-NOV 24.0 20.9 21.2 12.9 11003 0.00 0.00 30

Subsurface continues to warm east of the IDL,into the IO there looks to be a Rossby Wave that will weaken the ongoing winds for a few days but towards the Mid month they look like they will return once again.By the looks right now the MJO seems to reappear in East Afica towards the middle of Nov then stall out once again into the western IO,have to wait to see if it might happen,but sure looks that way right now

Not sure about 1954 but we'll see,that was a LaNina starting into srping that year that lasted into fall of 1956

lol...yeah,i still remember Mr.Bob told me to stop using analogs years ago

Looks like some ups and downs.Possibly like you mentioned a decent cold front towards the end of the work week,East Asia looks active upcoming which would be more of the MJO moving across the Maritime.Temps could/probably moderate upwards towards the mid month as the MJO is moving across some unfavorable phases for this time of year. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z NOV02 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 12Z 02-NOV 31.8 28.9 24002 0 SAT 18Z 02-NOV 50.0 31.7 50.1 26.7 26006 0 SUN 00Z 03-NOV 51.0 41.6 41.5 25.9 28006 0.00 0.00 1 SUN 06Z 03-NOV 41.5 35.0 35.4 30.4 28003 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 03-NOV 35.7 30.9 30.9 28.3 32002 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 03-NOV 48.5 30.9 48.6 26.3 28002 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 04-NOV 49.9 41.7 41.9 32.0 16002 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 04-NOV 41.9 34.4 34.5 31.1 11003 0.00 0.00 2 MON 12Z 04-NOV 37.0 33.2 34.7 29.4 15003 0.00 0.00 34 MON 18Z 04-NOV 57.3 34.7 57.5 32.8 24003 0.00 0.00 79 TUE 00Z 05-NOV 58.5 46.6 45.8 36.0 16002 0.00 0.00 10 TUE 06Z 05-NOV 46.2 39.1 40.4 33.3 20002 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 05-NOV 41.0 35.9 36.6 32.4 19002 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 05-NOV 57.4 36.5 57.5 39.2 27005 0.00 0.00 17 WED 00Z 06-NOV 58.4 48.5 48.4 40.9 28004 0.00 0.00 5 WED 06Z 06-NOV 48.4 39.8 40.3 38.1 08002 0.00 0.00 1 WED 12Z 06-NOV 41.0 34.8 34.9 34.2 08002 0.00 0.00 75 WED 18Z 06-NOV 62.4 34.9 62.5 36.2 25004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 00Z 07-NOV 63.2 52.3 52.2 43.1 20003 0.00 0.00 44 THU 06Z 07-NOV 52.5 45.5 45.5 42.2 14002 0.00 0.00 27 THU 12Z 07-NOV 46.5 43.5 45.0 41.8 14003 0.00 0.00 99 THU 18Z 07-NOV 57.6 44.9 57.4 46.5 18002 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 08-NOV 61.0 51.2 51.1 50.9 00002 0.10 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 08-NOV 52.0 39.5 39.2 38.6 34008 0.77 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 08-NOV 39.2 30.6 30.6 22.0 34008 0.02 0.00 99 FRI 18Z 08-NOV 36.6 30.1 36.8 13.3 34009 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 09-NOV 37.5 29.8 29.7 15.1 32006 0.00 0.00 19 SAT 06Z 09-NOV 29.7 24.4 24.3 14.8 03003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 09-NOV 24.5 22.0 22.4 14.3 09003 0.00 0.00 3 SAT 18Z 09-NOV 44.9 22.4 45.2 15.8 26003 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 00Z 10-NOV 47.5 37.5 37.4 24.0 21005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 10-NOV 37.6 33.0 34.6 26.8 21002 0.00 0.00 96 SUN 12Z 10-NOV 35.1 31.7 32.6 25.3 18003 0.00 0.00 4 SUN 18Z 10-NOV 54.6 32.4 54.9 25.3 24007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 11-NOV 56.5 44.9 44.7 33.7 22004 0.00 0.00 8 MON 06Z 11-NOV 44.9 37.0 37.2 30.0 18002 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 11-NOV 40.4 34.4 34.9 27.9 18002 0.00 0.00 0 MON 18Z 11-NOV 57.6 34.8 57.8 37.3 23006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 59.0 48.5 48.5 41.6 24005 0.00 0.00 97 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 48.6 45.4 46.3 43.2 23004 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 46.5 44.0 44.0 43.3 23003 0.00 0.00 78

I wouldn't make no prediction right now,but yeah you'd rather see the SST's furher west and not east,not sure that will happen right now

Yes and no