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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Sorry put 950,should have been 850,either way you should see the warming at 850,more ZR and freezing fog maybe
  2. jaxjagman
    SW TO S winds below 950mb is a warm nose,that is ZR,just saying
  3. jaxjagman
    Make sure you check your soundings,other than higher elevations this is ZR
  4. jaxjagman
    PV is headed back to the NP by the Euro it seems ,have to watch later on what blocking will show for any SSW upcoming.These strong +IOD events back into 1994,1997 never produced a SSWE in winter,nothing but signs right now the SPV will get stronger and not weaker,even tho the QBO is on the decline
  5. jaxjagman
    Teleconections go south long range,-PNA/+AO/EPO. Seems like a brief warm up possibly around the 18th or so I gave my thoughts on the MJO on the ENSO thread,but this could certainly change. Seasons can be so different for us in the Valley..Unless you have some super storm, someone won't be happy,most of the time it's us in the central and western folks,it's just the way it is. Quite a difference from last winter tho with the MJO.Starting point is Dec3,look how the MJO crept through the warm phases in Jan.,yeah we got cold ever so seldom in winter,more probably thanks to the lose SPV that finally split in late Dec.PV is strong right now and even signs of getting stronger in the next several days. IMHO,get those electric blankets ready,you'll need them soon.Lets hope for a White Christmas,least for some body
  6. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    RMM's yesterday show the MJO going back into the COD into the warm phases.Unless the +IOD is playing games with the signal, the MJO along with a KW will be passing around the IDL MID Dec., then get back into the NH around Christmas time.By the looks right now, seems as the MJO/KW gets into the NH the +IOD will once again start to strenghten during this time .This should slow the progression of the MJO into Africa and the Western IO regions towards the end of the end year and into the start of next
  7. jaxjagman
    They will if you fire that stove up..lol
  8. jaxjagman
    GFS wants to destroy MEM,Euro says, what cold? FRI 06Z 13-DEC -0.5 -1.3 129 110 04012 SN 0.00 0.00 FRI 12Z 13-DEC -3.1 -2.6 129 1948 05012 SN 0.12 0.00 FRI 18Z 13-DEC -1.0 -1.5 130 2479 06010 ZR 0.08 0.00 SAT 00Z 14-DEC -0.6 0.5 130 5135 05014 ZR 0.30 0.39 SAT 06Z 14-DEC -0.4 1.1 130 5696 04013 ZR 0.37 0.43 SAT 12Z 14-DEC -0.3 1.3 130 6963 05018 ZR 0.72 0.47 SAT 18Z 14-DEC 0.1 0.1 130 5182 04015 SN 0.58 0.55 SUN 00Z 15-DEC -0.9 -0.5 130 2801 01014 ZR 0.30 0.59 SUN 06Z 15-DEC -2.7 0.1 129 4228 01010 ZR 0.12 0.59 SUN 18Z 15-DEC -2.5 -9.4 126 0 30010 SN 0.05 0.63
  9. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Last tri-monthlies in Aug.,seemingly the most -ve ever for any time -3,344
  10. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Subsurface has been cooling east of the IDL and warming west
  11. jaxjagman
    Nothing better than beating Alabama in the Iron bowl and knocking them out
  12. jaxjagman
    We got some wind and very little convection
  13. jaxjagman
    Nothing worse than watching a football game in the rain,even with a poncho it's not very enjoyable to me.Went to a Jaguars game several years ago and it was raining so hard with some wind it was blowing sideways thanks to the St.Johns river,where our seats were it was blowing right in our face
  14. jaxjagman
    Hoping we get some good thunder later on,hoping the skies open up some.Pathetic cells right now https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/probsev.html
  15. jaxjagman
    Ha Ha..You know its been sad when you get excited to hear a rumble of thunder,i was like this, this afternoon when i heard about 5 rumbles
  16. jaxjagman
    HRRR don't look half bad for your area later this afternoon into the early evening
  17. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

  18. jaxjagman
    I think this did expectionally well with the MJO and the +IOD the last time the MJO passed.It's seems to be consistently picking up on a paasing Kelvin Wave in the Eastern Pac,this would be part of Carvers time frame in the first week of Dec., but the MJO is showing nothing more than being suppressed into the Martitime,right now it seems to me the MJO could get into the western IO but then could weaken then right back into the COD afterwards,i really think the GEFS is more right with the MJO upcoming,least right now
  19. jaxjagman
    Right,i left out"but one",i edited it it before you posted this.Think we got about 6 inches here and you got close to 10-12"
  20. jaxjagman
    We havent seen but one good snow here in the last decade and this was in a Nina pattern
  21. jaxjagman
    If this type pattern would happen into winter i'd be a betting man we'd we would/could see a bowling ball into winter
  22. jaxjagman
    Be careful with the atmospheric River being shown this time of year in So Cali for our parts,usually it's when we see a more battle with heights and it kicks out the Upper Level Ridge out to fast,if this was winter tho
  23. jaxjagman
    if i recall correct it split more into 3,either way the PV was weak in fall into winter and it finally did the job Dec 31,pretty sure that is right.Happy T-Giving to you as welll
  24. jaxjagman
    Just went back to our historical winter thread,.I more reflect back with what the +IOD is doing in the strong years but i omitted 1997 because we went into a Very Strong El Nino into winter of 1997,but the ENSO in 1994 and 2006 is similar now,tho it could very well be not even into an actual Nino.this year. 1994 we had no SSW and 2006 we had a MAJOR in Jan Even wiithout the SSW in 1994 i saw where John posted back into 1994 it got colder than hell,not sure where he was talking about but either way -14 is cold everywhere in the Valley,not sure what happened with snow..2006 i believe there was a blizzard in the east in March which effected the eastern parts. Guess we'll see what happens,you can still get SSWE'S in the low solar min,but it seemingly would be hard to find a good analog right now especially what happening into the IO into early winter.It doesn't help either the PV is knocked off ot it's axis on the wrong side,seems the GFS today after the long haul has sided with the GEFS
  25. jaxjagman
    Pretty crazy how much the strongly positive IOD can effect these parts of the world with wild fires in Austrailia and floods in East Africa https://time.com/5738777/koalas-australia-bushfires/ https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2019-11-26-kenya-flooding-death-toll-rises-60
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