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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    My model only goes out 90 hrs on the Euro 6z and 18z,probably all you need anyways?..lol.Here's TYS 18Z Euro ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 55.3 41.9 36004 3 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 56.3 45.5 45.5 40.2 06003 5 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 45.5 40.0 40.4 37.6 11003 0.00 0.00 8 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 40.5 38.1 38.6 36.1 12005 0.00 0.00 83 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 55.5 38.6 55.7 41.3 17004 0.00 0.00 68 MON 00Z 09-DEC 57.8 50.3 50.3 38.2 18004 0.00 0.00 99 MON 06Z 09-DEC 50.4 47.5 47.8 44.1 16003 0.03 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 49.4 47.2 49.4 47.1 17003 0.06 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 58.5 49.1 58.9 54.0 20009 0.03 0.00 99 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 62.1 58.8 60.1 53.7 21010 0.00 0.00 97 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 61.1 59.6 59.8 56.1 22008 0.01 0.00 99 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 60.0 58.2 58.2 56.5 21006 0.06 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 59.3 51.3 51.1 49.9 36008 0.64 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 51.1 40.7 40.7 40.2 02006 0.46 0.00 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 40.7 34.0 33.9 33.5 00005 0.37 0.09 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 33.9 31.4 31.3 29.1 35005 0.13 0.12 100
  2. jaxjagman
    It's going to depend for us how fast the thermals drop catching the long wave through,the EURO 18Z says it will,hate cold air chasing moisture ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 52.7 42.2 03003 62 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 55.1 44.4 44.0 39.9 04004 1 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 44.1 38.8 38.8 37.5 13004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 45.1 38.4 44.6 41.2 17007 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 57.7 44.6 57.8 44.4 18010 0.00 0.00 71 MON 00Z 09-DEC 59.1 52.7 52.8 44.1 16008 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 09-DEC 54.1 52.5 54.1 49.4 17010 0.01 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 55.7 53.7 55.8 53.8 18011 0.02 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 63.2 55.8 63.4 53.9 20014 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 64.2 60.6 61.0 58.6 21010 0.04 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 61.1 59.9 60.2 59.3 23008 0.05 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 60.3 49.3 49.0 48.8 34008 0.16 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 49.0 37.2 37.2 36.4 34007 0.34 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 37.2 33.3 33.3 26.8 35006 0.22 0.09 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 33.3 31.4 31.5 20.3 34006 0.05 0.05 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 31.5 26.0 25.9 16.5 34005 0.00 0.00 0
  3. jaxjagman
    It's from ACCU that don't account for the actual snow totals of the GEFS,i believe the totals are showing with melting
  4. jaxjagman
    Thanks for the reply back.My PC died so i'm using my gaming laptop,but this helps,thanks.
  5. jaxjagman
    Using Google Chrome,"Awesome screen shot".I'll figure it out to have better quality
  6. jaxjagman
    This work for anyone?
  7. jaxjagman
    You get it to play,like i said it's a new tool i got, so trying to figure out the do and dont's,but basically it shows a half inch for most and a 1" in the higher elevations
  8. jaxjagman
    It doesnt play?
  9. jaxjagman
    First time trying this,i'll get better later on GEFS Mean
  10. jaxjagman
    AwesomeScreenshot-2019-12-7-1575775794118.webm
  11. jaxjagman
    You could just as well look at various maps and see if the soundings are actually correct,thus possibly maybe they are not
  12. jaxjagman
    Sorry put 950,should have been 850,either way you should see the warming at 850,more ZR and freezing fog maybe
  13. jaxjagman
    SW TO S winds below 950mb is a warm nose,that is ZR,just saying
  14. jaxjagman
    Make sure you check your soundings,other than higher elevations this is ZR
  15. jaxjagman
    PV is headed back to the NP by the Euro it seems ,have to watch later on what blocking will show for any SSW upcoming.These strong +IOD events back into 1994,1997 never produced a SSWE in winter,nothing but signs right now the SPV will get stronger and not weaker,even tho the QBO is on the decline
  16. jaxjagman
    Teleconections go south long range,-PNA/+AO/EPO. Seems like a brief warm up possibly around the 18th or so I gave my thoughts on the MJO on the ENSO thread,but this could certainly change. Seasons can be so different for us in the Valley..Unless you have some super storm, someone won't be happy,most of the time it's us in the central and western folks,it's just the way it is. Quite a difference from last winter tho with the MJO.Starting point is Dec3,look how the MJO crept through the warm phases in Jan.,yeah we got cold ever so seldom in winter,more probably thanks to the lose SPV that finally split in late Dec.PV is strong right now and even signs of getting stronger in the next several days. IMHO,get those electric blankets ready,you'll need them soon.Lets hope for a White Christmas,least for some body
  17. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    RMM's yesterday show the MJO going back into the COD into the warm phases.Unless the +IOD is playing games with the signal, the MJO along with a KW will be passing around the IDL MID Dec., then get back into the NH around Christmas time.By the looks right now, seems as the MJO/KW gets into the NH the +IOD will once again start to strenghten during this time .This should slow the progression of the MJO into Africa and the Western IO regions towards the end of the end year and into the start of next
  18. jaxjagman
    They will if you fire that stove up..lol
  19. jaxjagman
    GFS wants to destroy MEM,Euro says, what cold? FRI 06Z 13-DEC -0.5 -1.3 129 110 04012 SN 0.00 0.00 FRI 12Z 13-DEC -3.1 -2.6 129 1948 05012 SN 0.12 0.00 FRI 18Z 13-DEC -1.0 -1.5 130 2479 06010 ZR 0.08 0.00 SAT 00Z 14-DEC -0.6 0.5 130 5135 05014 ZR 0.30 0.39 SAT 06Z 14-DEC -0.4 1.1 130 5696 04013 ZR 0.37 0.43 SAT 12Z 14-DEC -0.3 1.3 130 6963 05018 ZR 0.72 0.47 SAT 18Z 14-DEC 0.1 0.1 130 5182 04015 SN 0.58 0.55 SUN 00Z 15-DEC -0.9 -0.5 130 2801 01014 ZR 0.30 0.59 SUN 06Z 15-DEC -2.7 0.1 129 4228 01010 ZR 0.12 0.59 SUN 18Z 15-DEC -2.5 -9.4 126 0 30010 SN 0.05 0.63
  20. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Last tri-monthlies in Aug.,seemingly the most -ve ever for any time -3,344
  21. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Subsurface has been cooling east of the IDL and warming west
  22. jaxjagman
    Nothing better than beating Alabama in the Iron bowl and knocking them out
  23. jaxjagman
    We got some wind and very little convection
  24. jaxjagman
    Nothing worse than watching a football game in the rain,even with a poncho it's not very enjoyable to me.Went to a Jaguars game several years ago and it was raining so hard with some wind it was blowing sideways thanks to the St.Johns river,where our seats were it was blowing right in our face
  25. jaxjagman
    Hoping we get some good thunder later on,hoping the skies open up some.Pathetic cells right now https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/probsev.html
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