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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    It could push the warmer SSTS INTO 3.4
  2. jaxjagman
    On your map of the 200hpa VP on the GEFS, this seems possible this could just be ENSO noise as there is a WWB showing up along the IDL upcoming
  3. jaxjagman
    MJO has weak signals,even some the the Euro members and even the Euro for that matter seems to be hinting at the MJO getting into phase 7 then looping right back into the Maritime the first of the year,have to wait and see.See a different look everyday
  4. jaxjagman
    MJO looks to be getting into the WH just after Christmas,not far off from what the RMMM's are showing
  5. jaxjagman
    11.mp4
  6. jaxjagman
    Wave 2 sure looks better than yesterday,in the long rabge
  7. jaxjagman
  8. jaxjagman
    We could see a cold spell if teleconnections work out like the post i posted in the banter thread.It still looks like wave2 will crap out and vault the PV into Eurasia tho upcoming
  9. jaxjagman
    You can find these maps here if you didn't know https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#merraulat10
  10. jaxjagman
    Eiether way of the PV,seemingly wave two is going to get broke down and the PV will probably strenghten once again upcoming.
  11. jaxjagman
    If you ask me ,there really is signs the MJO is is going to get stronger signals towards the end of the year.I just like to use these maps on a 3-day forecast to get a better view,but if you expand it to even 5 days you can right now see the MJO signal get stronger into Africa."IF" the +IOD does start to streghten once again,pic above ,even tho the PV is getting hit it might go back towards Eurasia once again with wave 2 getting broke down
  12. jaxjagman
    No they aren't totally accurate especially in the long range,but if i were to bet on the MJO between the GEFS and Euro i'd put my money on the GEFS being closer
  13. jaxjagman
    Don't think that is right.The Euro seems to show a more suppressed MJO going into the Maritime along with a potential KW moving through the same region the same time it wants to show the MJO into the Maritime
  14. jaxjagman
    The Euro has a bias when it gets into the WP,especially when it gets into P6
  15. jaxjagman
    It does
  16. jaxjagman
    West based Ninos are what you want in winter.Lately 3 and 1.2 are cooling and the cold pool in the subsurface right now is east of the IDL.it's nothing like last year
  17. jaxjagman
    Just saying, maybe we can score a TD
  18. jaxjagman
    Be interesting to see if it's right tho.The last weeklies from the control shows cold starting around this time frame and lasting basically until Mid Jan and probably beyond,this is why it's banter talk tho..lol
  19. jaxjagman
    Nice cross polar flow..heh
  20. jaxjagman
    My new motto for the GFS
  21. jaxjagman
    I give credit to the Euro,it did rather well with this even in the long range,It just missed the timing in the short range with the LP passing through Mid Tn
  22. jaxjagman
    The RMM'S continue to struggle with the MJO signal.A couple days ago the GEFS showed it stronger getting intp P7,it's now backed off on that and keeps it into the COD more into P8.Euro on the other hand now wants bring the MJO into P6 but into the COD.The +IOD continues to be stronger than normal for this time of year and could possibly strenghten into the first of the year,but i wouldn't trust this right now.
  23. jaxjagman
    Should be snow with your elevation GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: CSV LAT= 35.95 LON= -85.08 ELE= 1880 00Z DEC15 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 00Z 15-DEC 4.4 -0.4 132 4396 26001 0.00 SUN 06Z 15-DEC 2.8 0.2 132 4886 25003 0.00 0.00 SUN 12Z 15-DEC 3.0 2.7 131 6586 27003 0.00 0.00 SUN 18Z 15-DEC 9.4 4.0 133 7544 18004 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 16-DEC 8.4 7.4 135 10437 16008 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 16-DEC 11.6 9.8 136 11305 18012 0.02 0.00 MON 12Z 16-DEC 13.2 9.8 136 11081 20010 0.03 0.00 MON 18Z 16-DEC 16.6 9.6 137 11971 20013 0.06 0.00 TUE 00Z 17-DEC 14.3 9.8 137 10638 19014 RA 0.19 0.00 TUE 06Z 17-DEC 14.4 11.3 137 10573 22006 1.16 0.00 TUE 12Z 17-DEC 6.9 2.5 133 10706 30009 0.03 0.00 TUE 18Z 17-DEC 3.2 -3.6 130 2616 33009 SN 0.00 0.00 WED 00Z 18-DEC 0.7 -6.4 129 1900 34009 SN 0.01 0.00 WED 06Z 18-DEC -1.1 -5.9 128 1094 33006 0.00 0.00 WED 12Z 18-DEC -3.6 -5.7 128 0 29004 0.00 0.00 WED 18Z 18-DEC 3.9 -4.6 130 2450 30007 0.00 0.00 THU 00Z 19-DEC -0.7 -3.7 129 1580 30004 0.00 0.00 THU 06Z 19-DEC -1.7 -1.3 129 835 27001 0.00 0.00 THU 12Z 19-DEC -2.0 2.3 130 7502 19003 0.00 0.00 THU 18Z 19-DEC 8.0 4.5 132 8542 23005 0.00 0.00 FRI 00Z 20-DEC 1.1 4.8 132 9365 22003 0.00 0.00 FRI 06Z 20-DEC 1.0 5.5 132 9318 17003 0.00 0.00 FRI 12Z 20-DEC 1.1 3.0 132 7786 20003 0.00 0.00 FRI 18Z 20-DEC 7.0 2.4 132 7202 19005 0.00 0.00 SAT 00Z 21-DEC 2.7 2.0 132 6228 15004 0.00 0.00 SAT 06Z 21-DEC 2.6 -0.2 132 4758 17004 0.00 0.00 SAT 12Z 21-DEC 2.8 0.1 131 4871 14004 RA 0.03 0.00 SAT 18Z 21-DEC 3.9 -0.8 131 4288 14002 RA 0.14 0.00 SUN 00Z 22-DEC 3.4 -1.9 131 3648 02003 RA 0.20 0.00
  24. jaxjagman
    Also remember how Rossby and Kelvin waves work.Rossby waves move east to west.Kelvin waves moves west to east.Alot of question marks with the MJO
  25. jaxjagman
    MJO continues to have destructive interference.Out into the Atlantic there are Rossby and Kelvin waves,there seems to also be a robust Rossby moving through the eatsern IO.This is where the GEFS shows the MJO signal in a couple days
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