jaxjagman

TNI broke the record again in Sept for most -ve,this makes two consecutive months which it has done this,August and Sept. 1981 -1.350 -1.094 -0.835 -0.558 -0.496 -0.464 -0.533 -0.605 -0.708 -0.617 -0.621 -0.708 1982 -1.067 -1.466 -1.922 -2.359 -2.364 -1.924 -1.418 -0.811 0.196 0.981 1.440 1.683 1983 1.822 1.991 2.282 2.929 3.734 4.227 4.143 3.867 3.183 2.462 1.814 1.411 1984 1.080 0.907 0.603 0.369 0.148 -0.183 -0.516 -0.536 -0.277 0.186 0.207 0.255 1985 0.366 0.147 -0.506 -0.572 -0.762 -1.244 -1.452 -1.337 -1.499 -1.379 -0.950 -0.623 1986 -0.564 -0.458 -0.515 -0.968 -1.395 -1.529 -1.727 -1.860 -1.769 -1.689 -1.616 -1.322 1987 -0.980 -0.584 -0.221 -0.192 -0.289 -0.497 -0.835 -1.008 -1.191 -1.283 -1.465 -1.566 1988 -1.718 -1.557 -1.350 -1.229 -1.016 -0.911 -0.771 -0.447 0.274 0.875 1.614 2.362 1989 2.629 2.577 2.039 1.436 0.658 0.103 -0.400 -0.420 -0.404 -0.559 -0.839 -1.019 1990 -1.314 -1.647 -1.634 -1.573 -1.714 -1.810 -1.880 -2.165 -2.399 -2.380 -2.437 -2.357 1991 -2.109 -2.090 -2.002 -1.793 -1.766 -1.843 -1.672 -1.706 -1.655 -1.657 -1.664 -1.625 1992 -1.363 -0.945 -0.480 -0.278 -0.363 -0.564 -0.992 -1.276 -1.317 -1.219 -1.146 -0.878 1993 -0.819 -0.668 -0.417 -0.267 -0.481 -0.629 -0.854 -1.028 -1.186 -1.170 -1.162 -1.005 1994 -1.203 -1.399 -1.611 -1.847 -2.339 -2.750 -2.800 -2.609 -2.500 -2.194 -1.657 -1.493 1995 -1.726 -1.911 -2.190 -2.296 -2.263 -2.004 -1.533 -1.006 -0.569 -0.342 -0.188 -0.028 1996 0.036 -0.373 -0.600 -0.911 -1.525 -1.984 -2.020 -1.961 -1.890 -1.730 -1.662 -1.505 1997 -1.345 -1.149 -0.538 0.297 1.055 1.783 2.510 2.833 2.944 3.090 3.037 2.858 1998 2.716 2.870 3.045 2.983 3.164 3.210 2.762 2.450 2.368 2.262 2.225 2.475 1999 2.451 2.095 1.700 1.138 0.449 -0.101 -0.311 -0.369 -0.200 0.152 0.477 1.065 2000 1.452 1.827 1.857 1.494 0.783 0.170 -0.465 -0.707 -0.798 -0.377 -0.097 0.362 2001 0.785 1.250 0.853 0.239 -0.568 -1.504 -2.452 -2.846 -2.858 -2.637 -2.674 -2.370 2002 -1.780 -1.343 -1.287 -1.326 -1.663 -2.335 -2.871 -3.001 -2.878 -2.546 -2.413 -2.311 2003 -2.523 -2.644 -2.910 -2.995 -3.040 -2.895 -2.723 -2.412 -2.082 -1.738 -1.596 -1.522 2004 -1.600 -1.571 -1.913 -2.272 -2.637 -2.999 -3.376 -3.253 -2.993 -2.731 -2.505 -2.393 2005 -2.598 -2.605 -2.408 -2.383 -2.284 -1.897 -1.885 -2.124 -1.999 -1.668 -1.264 -0.475 2006 0.151 0.067 -0.099 -0.601 -1.170 -1.501 -1.289 -1.087 -0.991 -1.131 -1.184 -1.204 2007 -1.594 -1.834 -2.022 -2.341 -2.655 -2.697 -2.565 -2.305 -1.865 -1.291 -0.302 0.850 2008 1.836 2.404 2.671 2.493 2.015 1.613 1.429 1.173 0.955 0.839 0.787 0.779 2009 0.793 0.753 0.514 0.107 -0.284 -0.476 -0.848 -1.309 -1.687 -2.025 -2.418 -2.571 2010 -2.649 -2.398 -2.127 -1.750 -1.548 -0.957 -0.564 -0.218 0.113 0.681 1.167 1.530 2011 1.523 1.577 1.546 1.271 0.844 0.675 0.387 0.168 -0.029 0.070 0.363 0.844 2012 1.082 1.479 1.613 1.596 1.191 0.601 -0.046 -0.718 -1.412 -1.740 -1.626 -1.515 2013 -1.149 -0.999 -1.167 -1.528 -1.929 -2.379 -2.398 -2.185 -1.936 -1.583 -1.043 -1.077 2014 -1.358 -1.503 -1.408 -1.483 -1.122 -0.636 -0.406 -0.499 -0.813 -1.238 -1.715 -2.117 2015 -2.476 -2.435 -1.984 -1.434 -0.702 -0.198 0.100 0.112 -0.139 -0.404 -0.676 -1.188 2016 -1.630 -1.802 -1.946 -1.978 -1.763 -1.441 -0.968 -0.508 -0.101 0.324 0.690 1.097 2017 1.447 1.465 1.268 0.592 -0.267 -1.150 -1.575 -1.925 -1.847 -1.735 -1.548 -1.264 2018 -1.134 -1.260 -1.320 -1.650 -1.978 -2.118 -2.089 -2.159 -1.979 -1.890 -1.734 -1.700 2019 -1.725 -1.774 -1.892 -2.226 -2.535 -2.750 -3.045 -3.344 -3.286 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99

Just for fun if you want to compare the +IOD this year to last it's very much stronger than last year.First pic is last,2nd is this year

Seemingly a couple days ago the Euro showed the MJO going into the warm phases 4 and 5,believe more or less what it was just seeing was a Kelvin Wave which is what iS being shown,It's now looking more GEFS it's why i believe the GEFS is more right with the signal getting into the WH upcoming.The MJO like i said earlier has destructive interference with it from Rossby and Kelvin waves

I thought we'd start to see a warm up around the 18th,but got suckered into the GEFS yesterday.The MJO is quite similar to the upcoming 5H pattern the Euro shows going into phase2 in Dec.But all signs are we are going to warm up upcoming especailly more in our parts,west and central Valley..Also don't let people fool you about the +IOD,it's still much stronger than normal right now AND all signs it should stay that way at least into the 2nd week of Jan. ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z DEC13 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 12Z 13-DEC 3.1 2.0 -2 -25 1 3 FRI 18Z 13-DEC 3.9 1.8 -6 46 -3 2 SAT 00Z 14-DEC 4.1 0.5 -11 1098 50 39.43 -9 0 SAT 06Z 14-DEC 4.0 -1.4 -14 1098 37 39.37 -16 -4 SAT 12Z 14-DEC 3.1 -3.8 -14 1097 16 39.34 -19 -7 SAT 18Z 14-DEC 5.6 -3.5 -12 1067 49 39.34 -21 -11 SUN 00Z 15-DEC 3.2 -3.1 -9 -20 -15 -7 SUN 06Z 15-DEC 0.5 -2.8 -6 2 -11 -6 SUN 12Z 15-DEC -0.4 0.1 -2 46 -7 -5 SUN 18Z 15-DEC 6.4 0.4 -1 47 -2 -1 MON 00Z 16-DEC 4.6 1.2 -3 1074 36 39.34 2 5 MON 06Z 16-DEC 8.3 7.0 -8 1085 26 39.35 4 10 MON 12Z 16-DEC 10.8 7.5 -8 1090 -3 39.36 5 12 MON 18Z 16-DEC 13.9 8.4 -11 1090 45 39.48 4 14 TUE 00Z 17-DEC 12.5 8.9 -14 32 2 13 TUE 06Z 17-DEC 9.2 6.8 -14 25 -1 10 TUE 12Z 17-DEC 0.5 -4.2 -6 -37 -6 0 TUE 18Z 17-DEC -0.8 -9.6 -2 -27 -12 -10 WED 00Z 18-DEC -0.7 -10.6 1 -16 -18 -18 WED 06Z 18-DEC -4.8 -10.2 4 -22 -18 -20 WED 12Z 18-DEC -6.9 -7.8 6 3 -13 -17 WED 18Z 18-DEC 1.8 -6.5 7 -11 -6 -11 THU 00Z 19-DEC -1.9 -4.4 7 -14 0 -5 THU 06Z 19-DEC -4.3 -1.7 9 -23 4 -2 THU 12Z 19-DEC -5.7 0.5 10 -37 8 0 THU 18Z 19-DEC 5.6 2.1 10 -38 9 1 FRI 00Z 20-DEC 1.3 1.6 9 -36 9 2 FRI 06Z 20-DEC 0.0 0.5 9 -24 7 0 FRI 12Z 20-DEC -0.3 -0.6 9 -35 4 -2 FRI 18Z 20-DEC 6.0 -0.8 7 25 1 -4 SAT 00Z 21-DEC 2.3 -0.1 5 -30 4 0 SAT 06Z 21-DEC 0.0 2.2 5 -2 5 2 SAT 12Z 21-DEC -0.6 4.3 4 -20 6 3 SAT 18Z 21-DEC 10.1 4.9 1 -34 7 6 SUN 00Z 22-DEC 6.8 3.4 0 -34 7 7 SUN 06Z 22-DEC 4.7 6.8 0 -14 7 7 SUN 12Z 22-DEC 4.1 9.4 0 -29 9 9 SUN 18Z 22-DEC 12.6 10.7 -3 -32 10 12 MON 00Z 23-DEC 9.8 10.0 -6 -38 11 16 MON 06Z 23-DEC 7.6 8.5 -6 -40 11 16 MON 12Z 23-DEC 7.4 7.3 -6 -40 11 16

If the EPS control is anywhere right,it's going to get cold towards the end of the year and it will stay cold until Mid Jan and beyond,but that's like always a big "IF"

MJO shows alot of destructive interference from Rossby-Kelvin waves.If it does move into the Maritime it's not going to stay there very long and will be back into the WH and Africa afterwards,least that is what it looks like right now. The ensembles today are fairly well clusted in showing a -AO before Christmas,yesterday it was a couple days after, but now there is not much signs of a +PNA..Euro shows a Low over Alaska the same time the the GEFS pumps up Alaska

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday - Lower MS and TN Valley Vicinity... A positively tilted shortwave mid/upper trough will eject from the Plains northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing a band of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across much of the south-central and Midwestern states. At the surface, low pressure over Arkansas will track northeast along the Ohio River toward western PA by Tuesday morning. Strong south/southwesterly low-level flow will bring Gulf moisture north and east across much of the southern U.S., with 60s dewpoints reaching as far north northern AL and perhaps middle TN. Forecast soundings indicate shear supportive of rotating updrafts and supercell structures. However, deep-layer flow will mostly parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front, likely leading to messy storm mode. Nevertheless, MUCAPE of around 500-1500 J/kg is expected across the warm sector and a southwesterly low level jet greater than 40 kt is forecast by most guidance. This should be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered severe cells and line segments capable of damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and possibly hail (where cells can remain discrete). Some uncertainty in north and east extent of the severe threat remains, and some changes are likely in coming outlook updates.

Teleconnections show the AO possibly could possibly tank just after Christmas with a possibly rising PNA and a weak -NAO,cold signs just after Christmas

Jamstec did a 180 this update.What looked to be a -NAO/+PDO did a flip flop,it's cold in the west and warm east. This morning the EPS wants to punch the PV,50MB it's still far out.Wave -2 looks better and better each day tho

JAMSTEC keeps more Nino conditions alive through summer

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains on D4/Sunday, continuing through the mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Guidance differs on the location of the surface low associated with this shortwave trough, with current forecasts of its position at 12Z D5/Monday ranging from the KS/OK/MO border intersection to central TX. Even with these differences, consensus is good for a moist and moderately unstable environment from the Lower MS Valley through the TN Valley on D5/Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave. Strong vertical shear will extend across this region, supporting long hodographs and supercell wind profiles. Consequently, there is a threat for severe thunderstorms D5/Monday afternoon and evening from the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley as the shortwave trough and associated cold front move through. Forecast confidence is high enough to introduce severe probabilities. Refinements to this area are likely in subsequent forecast as mesoscale details become more apparent. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the front as it continues eastward through the remainder of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Tuesday. However, favorable low-level moisture and instability will become increasingly displaced south of the better large-scale forcing for ascent, suggesting a more limited severe risk. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected across the CONUS on D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday.

See what happens Monday,probably a better chance into Ms right now where better instability should be. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active upper pattern will continue from the weekend into next week with several systems expected to rotate through the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday. Thunderstorms are anticipated across FL (and perhaps eastern NC) as a the cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. Instability will be limited but vertical shear will be strong and a few stronger storms are possible. Another strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin/northern Rockies through the central/southern Plains and mid MS Valley into the OH Valley D5/Sunday through D7/Tuesday. Some timing and strength differences exist within the guidance but the overall pattern has shown reasonably good run-to-run and model-to-model consistency. Period between this shortwave and the one before it is enough for decent moisture from the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. As a result, a moderately moist and unstable air mass is forecast to be place ahead of this maturing system. Given the active pattern, a bit more consistency is needed within the guidance to have enough confidence to delineate any threat areas. However, if current trends continue, probabilities will likely be needed in a succeeding outlook.

It is strong but still can get stretched and displaced

PV is getting hit by wave one and two now,least it looked better yesterday.maybe it's on to something,maybe not Edit:Should have said the PV is starting to get hit by wave 1and 2,i just woke up

YUP,short range models are under doing the dry air,the moisture fizzles out by the time it gets to us

http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201091.htm

ALL snow now,flurries right now

If you look a the sounding from the HRRR and RAP i dont see the dry air that bad not until later on today,this is in our parts

Snowing here,some mist mixed in still tho but it's getting better

We are going to warm up,didnt mean to post this in the other thread.East Asia is fixing to warm up as the MJO moves into the warm phases,if its right.Think the +IOD is playing with the MJO signal but the Euro and GEFS both show on the RMM's going into the COD into the Maritime,You should see East Asia get more active as the MJO moves along the Maritime which looks to be possible the end of the run with what the Euro is showing. will happenYou should see a trough maybe around the 16th then maybe a stout -PNA,even the GEFS is showing this today with +epo/ao,chances are for a White Cristmas right now looks blah

Looks better than a couple days ago.The high temp would be in the early morning and temps would gradually fall during the day.I really believe the orographic lift towards the plateau are going to do much better than what is being shown,seen this to many times

18z Euro looks more Control run

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 18Z DEC08 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 18Z 08-DEC 14.3 8.0 135 12364 19009 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 14.9 8.6 135 12092 19011 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 12.7 9.4 136 11827 18009 0.00 0.00 MON 03Z 09-DEC 13.5 10.2 136 11473 18012 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 13.5 9.4 136 11417 19012 0.00 0.00 MON 09Z 09-DEC 13.6 9.7 136 11295 18014 0.00 0.00 MON 12Z 09-DEC 13.4 13.9 136 10717 20013 0.00 0.00 MON 15Z 09-DEC 14.9 10.3 136 11181 20015 RA 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 17.7 9.7 137 11689 21015 RA 0.00 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 18.6 10.6 137 10839 22013 RA 0.00 0.00 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 17.4 9.2 137 10808 23008 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 15.5 9.3 136 10859 31009 0.00 0.00 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 11.3 8.4 134 9964 34011 0.00 0.00 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 5.6 4.4 132 10334 35012 0.00 0.00 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 2.9 1.6 130 6889 35009 RA 0.09 0.00 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 1.7 2.1 130 6951 01010 SN 0.14 0.04 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 1.2 -0.1 130 6108 01009 SN 0.23 0.09 TUE 21Z 10-DEC 0.7 -0.3 130 6946 02007 SN 0.10 0.16 WED 00Z 11-DEC 0.6 -1.5 129 416 02007 SN 0.13 0.24 WED 03Z 11-DEC 0.0 -0.5 130 3000 04005 0.00 0.24 WED 06Z 11-DEC -1.0 1.3 130 6276 03005 0.00 0.24 WED 09Z 11-DEC -2.0 2.1 131 6331 07005 0.00 0.24 WED 12Z 11-DEC -2.0 2.2 131 6348 05004 0.00 0.24 WED 15Z 11-DEC 0.5 1.9 131 6105 06005 0.00 0.24 WED 18Z 11-DEC 4.5 1.9 132 6606 07005 0.00 0.16 WED 21Z 11-DEC 5.5 2.3 132 8113 06005 0.00 0.08 THU 00Z 12-DEC 2.5 2.4 132 7964 06005 0.00 0.08 THU 03Z 12-DEC 1.9 3.0 133 7885 07006 0.00 0.08 THU 06Z 12-DEC 1.3 3.8 133 8051 09006 0.00 0.08 THU 09Z 12-DEC 1.6 4.1 133 8542 08006 0.00 0.08 THU 12Z 12-DEC 1.5 3.8 133 8401 07007 0.00 0.08 THU 15Z 12-DEC 4.1 4.8 133 9940 09009 0.00 0.08 THU 18Z 12-DEC 8.3 5.2 133 10181 10007 0.00 0.04

Thes are also 3-hr increments,just pointing that out,just trying to figure out when fz heights fall GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 18Z DEC08 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 18Z 08-DEC 13.1 4.2 134 10607 20003 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 12.9 5.6 135 10712 31000 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 9.9 6.8 135 10879 12001 0.00 0.00 MON 03Z 09-DEC 9.3 7.8 135 9087 14001 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 9.1 7.6 135 9362 14003 0.01 0.00 MON 09Z 09-DEC 8.9 8.4 135 9741 11004 0.01 0.00 MON 12Z 09-DEC 9.1 8.6 135 10304 15004 0.05 0.00 MON 15Z 09-DEC 11.0 9.1 135 11059 16004 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 14.1 8.0 136 11051 21007 0.00 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 15.9 8.5 137 11181 20010 0.00 0.00 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 15.0 9.0 137 10780 20009 RA 0.00 0.00 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 15.1 9.8 137 11117 21008 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 14.9 10.1 137 11401 21008 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 15.3 10.3 137 11561 21008 RA 0.02 0.00 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 14.8 9.5 137 11699 28004 RA 0.23 0.00 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 10.4 4.3 134 11558 35004 RA 0.30 0.00 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 7.4 2.5 133 11390 34005 RA 0.40 0.00 TUE 21Z 10-DEC 5.7 1.4 132 10449 00006 RA 0.17 0.00 WED 00Z 11-DEC 3.4 0.5 131 7012 01006 RA 0.34 0.00 WED 03Z 11-DEC 3.1 0.0 131 7281 03005 RA 0.10 0.00 WED 06Z 11-DEC 1.9 -0.7 130 5030 00006 SN 0.20 0.02 WED 09Z 11-DEC 1.0 -1.6 130 2631 01004 SN 0.14 0.15 WED 12Z 11-DEC 0.8 0.9 130 5836 03003 0.15 0.18 WED 15Z 11-DEC 2.6 1.1 131 6235 01004 0.00 0.16 WED 18Z 11-DEC 5.8 -0.1 131 4979 01004 0.00 0.13 WED 21Z 11-DEC 5.8 -0.3 131 4744 03004 0.00 0.08 THU 00Z 12-DEC 2.7 0.3 131 6258 04003 0.00 0.08 THU 03Z 12-DEC 1.5 0.8 131 7225 04004 0.00 0.08 THU 06Z 12-DEC 1.0 1.8 131 8099 06004 0.00 0.08 THU 09Z 12-DEC 0.6 2.8 131 8017 05004 0.00 0.08 THU 12Z 12-DEC 0.4 3.6 132 7980 05004 0.00 0.08 THU 15Z 12-DEC 4.2 4.3 132 8513 05004 0.00 0.08 THU 18Z 12-DEC 8.5 4.4 133 8908 05003 0.00 0.07