jaxjagman

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe thunderstorm potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday as an upper low moves over northern Mexico towards parts of the Southwest. Deterministic medium-range guidance continues to diverge from Day 5/Friday onward regarding the evolution of this upper low across the central/eastern CONUS. If a slower eastward movement occurs, this would potentially allow for greater low-level moisture return. Regardless of its eventual development, enhanced flow aloft attendant to the upper trough/low should foster strong vertical shear. However, instability is forecast to remain rather weak in both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF. Still, some severe threat may materialize from Day 5/Friday through Day 8/Monday over parts of the southern Plains, lower/mid MS Valley into the TN Valley, and Southeast. However, uncertainty in the location and amplitude of the upper trough/low and related surface features, along with concerns about weak instability, suggest predictability remains too low to include any severe probabilities.

Seems like we are headed into the right direction from past strongly +IOD events lasting into fall/winter.When the strong +IOD occurs(1994,1997,2006) in the late season the ENSO into 3.4 gets stronger on the ONI in the winter months,but it peaks out in "DJF"some what and after that starts to fall into a LaNina more or less into summer 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3

I give credit to the Euro,it did rather well with this even in the long range,It just missed the timing in the short range with the LP passing through Mid Tn

TNI broke the record again in Sept for most -ve,this makes two consecutive months which it has done this,August and Sept. 1981 -1.350 -1.094 -0.835 -0.558 -0.496 -0.464 -0.533 -0.605 -0.708 -0.617 -0.621 -0.708 1982 -1.067 -1.466 -1.922 -2.359 -2.364 -1.924 -1.418 -0.811 0.196 0.981 1.440 1.683 1983 1.822 1.991 2.282 2.929 3.734 4.227 4.143 3.867 3.183 2.462 1.814 1.411 1984 1.080 0.907 0.603 0.369 0.148 -0.183 -0.516 -0.536 -0.277 0.186 0.207 0.255 1985 0.366 0.147 -0.506 -0.572 -0.762 -1.244 -1.452 -1.337 -1.499 -1.379 -0.950 -0.623 1986 -0.564 -0.458 -0.515 -0.968 -1.395 -1.529 -1.727 -1.860 -1.769 -1.689 -1.616 -1.322 1987 -0.980 -0.584 -0.221 -0.192 -0.289 -0.497 -0.835 -1.008 -1.191 -1.283 -1.465 -1.566 1988 -1.718 -1.557 -1.350 -1.229 -1.016 -0.911 -0.771 -0.447 0.274 0.875 1.614 2.362 1989 2.629 2.577 2.039 1.436 0.658 0.103 -0.400 -0.420 -0.404 -0.559 -0.839 -1.019 1990 -1.314 -1.647 -1.634 -1.573 -1.714 -1.810 -1.880 -2.165 -2.399 -2.380 -2.437 -2.357 1991 -2.109 -2.090 -2.002 -1.793 -1.766 -1.843 -1.672 -1.706 -1.655 -1.657 -1.664 -1.625 1992 -1.363 -0.945 -0.480 -0.278 -0.363 -0.564 -0.992 -1.276 -1.317 -1.219 -1.146 -0.878 1993 -0.819 -0.668 -0.417 -0.267 -0.481 -0.629 -0.854 -1.028 -1.186 -1.170 -1.162 -1.005 1994 -1.203 -1.399 -1.611 -1.847 -2.339 -2.750 -2.800 -2.609 -2.500 -2.194 -1.657 -1.493 1995 -1.726 -1.911 -2.190 -2.296 -2.263 -2.004 -1.533 -1.006 -0.569 -0.342 -0.188 -0.028 1996 0.036 -0.373 -0.600 -0.911 -1.525 -1.984 -2.020 -1.961 -1.890 -1.730 -1.662 -1.505 1997 -1.345 -1.149 -0.538 0.297 1.055 1.783 2.510 2.833 2.944 3.090 3.037 2.858 1998 2.716 2.870 3.045 2.983 3.164 3.210 2.762 2.450 2.368 2.262 2.225 2.475 1999 2.451 2.095 1.700 1.138 0.449 -0.101 -0.311 -0.369 -0.200 0.152 0.477 1.065 2000 1.452 1.827 1.857 1.494 0.783 0.170 -0.465 -0.707 -0.798 -0.377 -0.097 0.362 2001 0.785 1.250 0.853 0.239 -0.568 -1.504 -2.452 -2.846 -2.858 -2.637 -2.674 -2.370 2002 -1.780 -1.343 -1.287 -1.326 -1.663 -2.335 -2.871 -3.001 -2.878 -2.546 -2.413 -2.311 2003 -2.523 -2.644 -2.910 -2.995 -3.040 -2.895 -2.723 -2.412 -2.082 -1.738 -1.596 -1.522 2004 -1.600 -1.571 -1.913 -2.272 -2.637 -2.999 -3.376 -3.253 -2.993 -2.731 -2.505 -2.393 2005 -2.598 -2.605 -2.408 -2.383 -2.284 -1.897 -1.885 -2.124 -1.999 -1.668 -1.264 -0.475 2006 0.151 0.067 -0.099 -0.601 -1.170 -1.501 -1.289 -1.087 -0.991 -1.131 -1.184 -1.204 2007 -1.594 -1.834 -2.022 -2.341 -2.655 -2.697 -2.565 -2.305 -1.865 -1.291 -0.302 0.850 2008 1.836 2.404 2.671 2.493 2.015 1.613 1.429 1.173 0.955 0.839 0.787 0.779 2009 0.793 0.753 0.514 0.107 -0.284 -0.476 -0.848 -1.309 -1.687 -2.025 -2.418 -2.571 2010 -2.649 -2.398 -2.127 -1.750 -1.548 -0.957 -0.564 -0.218 0.113 0.681 1.167 1.530 2011 1.523 1.577 1.546 1.271 0.844 0.675 0.387 0.168 -0.029 0.070 0.363 0.844 2012 1.082 1.479 1.613 1.596 1.191 0.601 -0.046 -0.718 -1.412 -1.740 -1.626 -1.515 2013 -1.149 -0.999 -1.167 -1.528 -1.929 -2.379 -2.398 -2.185 -1.936 -1.583 -1.043 -1.077 2014 -1.358 -1.503 -1.408 -1.483 -1.122 -0.636 -0.406 -0.499 -0.813 -1.238 -1.715 -2.117 2015 -2.476 -2.435 -1.984 -1.434 -0.702 -0.198 0.100 0.112 -0.139 -0.404 -0.676 -1.188 2016 -1.630 -1.802 -1.946 -1.978 -1.763 -1.441 -0.968 -0.508 -0.101 0.324 0.690 1.097 2017 1.447 1.465 1.268 0.592 -0.267 -1.150 -1.575 -1.925 -1.847 -1.735 -1.548 -1.264 2018 -1.134 -1.260 -1.320 -1.650 -1.978 -2.118 -2.089 -2.159 -1.979 -1.890 -1.734 -1.700 2019 -1.725 -1.774 -1.892 -2.226 -2.535 -2.750 -3.045 -3.344 -3.286 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday - Lower MS and TN Valley Vicinity... A positively tilted shortwave mid/upper trough will eject from the Plains northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing a band of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across much of the south-central and Midwestern states. At the surface, low pressure over Arkansas will track northeast along the Ohio River toward western PA by Tuesday morning. Strong south/southwesterly low-level flow will bring Gulf moisture north and east across much of the southern U.S., with 60s dewpoints reaching as far north northern AL and perhaps middle TN. Forecast soundings indicate shear supportive of rotating updrafts and supercell structures. However, deep-layer flow will mostly parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front, likely leading to messy storm mode. Nevertheless, MUCAPE of around 500-1500 J/kg is expected across the warm sector and a southwesterly low level jet greater than 40 kt is forecast by most guidance. This should be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered severe cells and line segments capable of damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and possibly hail (where cells can remain discrete). Some uncertainty in north and east extent of the severe threat remains, and some changes are likely in coming outlook updates.

JAMSTEC keeps more Nino conditions alive through summer

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains on D4/Sunday, continuing through the mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Guidance differs on the location of the surface low associated with this shortwave trough, with current forecasts of its position at 12Z D5/Monday ranging from the KS/OK/MO border intersection to central TX. Even with these differences, consensus is good for a moist and moderately unstable environment from the Lower MS Valley through the TN Valley on D5/Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave. Strong vertical shear will extend across this region, supporting long hodographs and supercell wind profiles. Consequently, there is a threat for severe thunderstorms D5/Monday afternoon and evening from the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley as the shortwave trough and associated cold front move through. Forecast confidence is high enough to introduce severe probabilities. Refinements to this area are likely in subsequent forecast as mesoscale details become more apparent. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the front as it continues eastward through the remainder of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Tuesday. However, favorable low-level moisture and instability will become increasingly displaced south of the better large-scale forcing for ascent, suggesting a more limited severe risk. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected across the CONUS on D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday.

See what happens Monday,probably a better chance into Ms right now where better instability should be. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active upper pattern will continue from the weekend into next week with several systems expected to rotate through the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday. Thunderstorms are anticipated across FL (and perhaps eastern NC) as a the cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. Instability will be limited but vertical shear will be strong and a few stronger storms are possible. Another strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin/northern Rockies through the central/southern Plains and mid MS Valley into the OH Valley D5/Sunday through D7/Tuesday. Some timing and strength differences exist within the guidance but the overall pattern has shown reasonably good run-to-run and model-to-model consistency. Period between this shortwave and the one before it is enough for decent moisture from the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. As a result, a moderately moist and unstable air mass is forecast to be place ahead of this maturing system. Given the active pattern, a bit more consistency is needed within the guidance to have enough confidence to delineate any threat areas. However, if current trends continue, probabilities will likely be needed in a succeeding outlook.

These last three strong +IOD events have led into at least a moderate to strong LaNina the follwoing year.1995-moderate...1998-strong....2007-strong Few of the seasonals are starting to pick up on a possibly developing LaNina upcoming. The cold pool down into the subsurface continues to shift further eastward,so seems possible right now we are starting to see a developing or Nina conditions in it's early stages

RMM's yesterday show the MJO going back into the COD into the warm phases.Unless the +IOD is playing games with the signal, the MJO along with a KW will be passing around the IDL MID Dec., then get back into the NH around Christmas time.By the looks right now, seems as the MJO/KW gets into the NH the +IOD will once again start to strenghten during this time .This should slow the progression of the MJO into Africa and the Western IO regions towards the end of the end year and into the start of next

Last tri-monthlies in Aug.,seemingly the most -ve ever for any time -3,344

Subsurface has been cooling east of the IDL and warming west

HRRR don't look half bad for your area later this afternoon into the early evening

Wouldn't be surprised now if every region is more on the + side today

Very cool

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will be possible over a portion of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley region Tuesday. ...Lower to middle Mississippi Valley region... A strong shortwave trough now approaching the Great Basin will emerge over the central and southern Plains early Tuesday. A mid-upper jet within base of this feature will strengthen to 120 kt as the shortwave trough ejects negatively tilted through the middle MS Valley region. Lee cyclone initially over the southern High Plains will deepen within exit region of the upper jet as it develops northeast through the middle MS Valley by Tuesday evening. Trailing cold front will advance east and southeast through the central and southern Plains and MS Valley. By the end of the period the front should extend from a surface low over upper Great lakes southwest through LA and the TX coastal area. The boundary layer over the northwestern Gulf is in the process of modifying with latest observations showing dewpoints already in the upper 60s F. Positive theta-e advection promoted by southerly low-level winds will persist through Tuesday contributing to surface dewpoints near 70 F as far north as southern AR with upper 50s F into central MO. Widespread clouds should limit diabatic heating in warm sector, but MLCAPE should approach 1000 J/kg over the lower MS Valley. Farther north from eastern KS into MO the development of steeper lapse rates with colder air aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will contribute to marginal MLCAPE with 500-800 J/kg possible within a more shallow convective layer. Two primary zones of surface based thunderstorm development are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, including along the warm conveyor belt from northern LA into AR, western MS and TN, and farther north within zone of stronger pre-frontal forcing ahead of the cold front from eastern KS into MO and western IL. Broken bands of storms including potential for a few supercells and bowing segments will be possible in both of these regimes where vertical shear profiles will be more than adequate for organized structures with sizeable 0-1 km hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear. Primary limiting factor for higher severe probabilities is the expected marginal thermodynamic environment. Nevertheless, at least isolated damaging wind and a couple tornadoes will be possible with the stronger storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

Have to see further model runs but right now CIPS and the Euro would suggest some strong storms into the warm sector in the long range towards the end of next weekend

Not much comparison with the IO this year with last,it did have a slight burst around the 26th as the map i'm showing from last year,but this IO is going to seemingly be stronger than normal into most of Dec.Last year the MJO was just getting into the WH and Africa towards the end of Nov,we had our first hard freeze or to say it got cold here ,21 on Nov 28

Slight warming,other than 1.2 every other region is above 0.5

There has been some good rises in the SST's in the NEPac recently,just what the EPS is showing in it's 10 day forecast you should see the PDO uptick and not down

That is not a -PDO look right now