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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Well thanks for droppping by and your insight.I'm not familiar with your area in Australia but you guys on fire from the IOD ?Seen some sad vids from your parts
  2. jaxjagman
    Good luck,still don't know why everyone says this is Modoki when the warmer SST'S in the subsurface are east of the IDL
  3. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Have to wait and see what the thermocline looks like after this KW passes.Sure looks like after the IO weakens into the first part of Dec the MJO and/or another WWB could be headed towards the IDL,you still have to look at right now where the warmer waters are right now into the subsurface which are more right now east of the IDL,really don't see how anyone right now could say this is more west/central based Nino pattern and not east..IMHO
  4. jaxjagman
    NAM never does well with mesoscales outside 24 hrs,it's why no one uses it in severe weather
  5. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Waiting on Jamstec to update, the last couple updates it's been cold in the east,should happen anytime soon.The IOD looks to stenghten some what in upcoming but looks to slowly weaken into the 3rd week of Nov as the monsoonal flow is getting into the Sothern Hemispehere slowly seemingly
  6. jaxjagman
    Really insane isn't it,Tn Valley at its best so far,our weather can be so volatile
  7. jaxjagman
    Looks like quite a few records will go down Wed https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html#
  8. jaxjagman
    Just looking at the EPS,no real upper level ridge other than S/Florida.Have to wait and see but i think we could see a strong system into the 3rd week of Nov with the wild swings with the SOI recently,guess we'll see Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Nov 2019 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 -4.71 -8.51 9 Nov 2019 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 -4.37 -8.38 8 Nov 2019 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 -4.38 -8.23 7 Nov 2019 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 -4.69 -8.01 6 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.75 -6.81 -5.28 -7.93 5 Nov 2019 1008.71 1011.25 -34.49 -5.28 -7.64 4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07 3 Nov 2019 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 -4.05 -6.62
  9. jaxjagman
    Hopefully Grits forecast comes to reality on the main page,be nice to have BN and not AN for a change in winter
  10. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    MJO is fixing to creep along the westen IO once again as the IOD stenghtens once again around Mid Nov, have to see what the Kelvin does and what kind of upwelling comes with iinto 3.4 and 3,this seems likely more of a chance to be more east based and not west,upcoming.
  11. jaxjagman
    Nothing changed really with the 18z Euro
  12. jaxjagman
    That was a nice run for TYS ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z NOV09 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 12Z 09-NOV 28.2 22.9 12003 2 SAT 18Z 09-NOV 50.0 28.0 50.2 29.0 24005 22 SUN 00Z 10-NOV 52.0 43.4 43.4 32.1 21005 0.00 0.00 2 SUN 06Z 10-NOV 43.5 39.7 39.7 32.4 21004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 10-NOV 39.8 38.3 38.9 34.3 21004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 10-NOV 60.0 38.9 60.2 38.7 23007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 11-NOV 61.6 51.5 51.3 40.6 21005 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 11-NOV 51.3 44.6 44.6 39.3 21003 0.00 0.00 99 MON 12Z 11-NOV 44.6 41.3 41.7 39.3 22003 0.00 0.00 54 MON 18Z 11-NOV 61.4 41.4 61.6 43.1 22007 0.00 0.00 58 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 62.6 54.1 54.0 43.0 21006 0.00 0.00 95 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 54.8 47.9 47.4 47.0 33007 0.14 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 47.4 30.8 30.6 27.6 36008 0.39 0.21 100 TUE 18Z 12-NOV 31.1 28.6 30.8 19.4 36009 0.06 0.06 94 WED 00Z 13-NOV 31.1 23.9 23.8 12.5 01006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 13-NOV 23.8 16.6 16.9 8.7 03004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 13-NOV 19.5 15.9 16.1 9.1 05003 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 13-NOV 34.8 15.6 35.0 18.4 00001 0.00 0.00 35 THU 00Z 14-NOV 38.7 27.9 28.8 19.9 19004 0.00 0.00 71 THU 06Z 14-NOV 31.3 24.7 28.7 19.2 18005 0.00 0.00 26 THU 12Z 14-NOV 29.7 24.5 26.1 17.5 18004 0.00 0.00 1 THU 18Z 14-NOV 45.9 25.5 46.1 22.0 23007 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 15-NOV 47.7 39.2 39.1 26.0 23004 0.00 0.00 4 FRI 06Z 15-NOV 39.5 32.5 34.3 27.0 19001 0.00 0.00 1 FRI 12Z 15-NOV 35.3 26.2 26.8 23.6 06003 0.00 0.00 11 FRI 18Z 15-NOV 49.1 26.7 49.3 32.7 01002 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 16-NOV 50.7 37.5 38.3 33.3 04003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 16-NOV 38.6 34.8 34.8 28.7 04004 0.00 0.00 88 SAT 12Z 16-NOV 34.9 32.2 32.2 27.4 06005 0.00 0.00 2
  13. jaxjagman
    6Z Might be more snow than we got all last year
  14. jaxjagman
    That's all we ever in general get in OUR parts when there is a low into the Gulf,clouds.
  15. jaxjagman
    Have to wait several more runs for us in the Valley,when you see these systems into the China Sea they can seemingly could be more suppressed systems into the GOM,The NAO looks more neutral by the GEFS just as well so i wouldn't discount the GFS as being right and the system just cuts through Florida,actually the Euro shpwed this on the OZ.Posted the Euro 5h from this afternoon and last nights .Something to watch anyways,but this seemingly has to be more a perfect storm for us right now
  16. jaxjagman
    Control(EPS) run bombs you guys out in the east,not so much for the central and west.Euro show about 6" for us and 3-4" in the west but less in the east.Be a nice hit for you guys in the east if it's right or even close to be right
  17. jaxjagman
    Models today show 1) Ridge in East Mongolia 2) ULL into the Sea of Okhotsk 3) Trough in the East China Sea.Would seem to teleconnect somewhat.Looks like the AO is going to tank mid month,have to wait and see for more runs
  18. jaxjagman
    Euro shows the plateau region getting the most snow anywhere in the lower 48
  19. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

  20. jaxjagman
    Who knows,that run tho looks like more sleet than snow for us,we only have to wait about 20 more runs of the GFS to go...lol
  21. jaxjagman
    Probably have to wait and see just as well if those soundings are corrupt just as well,i was looking at also the 850mb map, looks much colder than those skew-t's,always hate seeing cold chasing moisture in our parts
  22. jaxjagman
    Yeah SW winds bringing up the dreaded nose,looks more a mix,in our parts
  23. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Yeahh,could see a nice storm upcoming with the SOI.Have to wait and see how it plays out
  24. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Not a whole lot of change from the last update,you have your cold and warm,gonna be tough to get a Nina into winter with what the subsurface looks like right now.Not really sure what the GEM and Nasa is looking at into winter
  25. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    NMME
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