jaxjagman

Jamstec update

See what the visualization maps show when they update.But this looks like it could be the strongest +IOD on record,per JAMSTEC

JAMSTEC isn't backing down on the cold,it's been showing cold since the Sept update

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

See what happens anyways,bout OBS time shortly

Gonna depend for everyone seemingly how fast the cold air sweepn in looking at MEM ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 00Z NOV11 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 11-NOV 55.6 45.1 18007 97 MON 03Z 11-NOV 53.5 41.7 18008 84 MON 06Z 11-NOV 55.6 51.1 51.0 41.8 19007 89 MON 09Z 11-NOV 48.6 43.1 19006 0.00 0.00 5 MON 12Z 11-NOV 51.0 47.7 48.0 43.7 19007 0.00 0.00 42 MON 15Z 11-NOV 56.6 47.8 19008 0.04 0.00 91 MON 18Z 11-NOV 58.6 48.0 57.9 52.1 22005 0.12 0.00 100 MON 21Z 11-NOV 53.6 51.6 34010 0.26 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 57.9 38.4 37.9 35.2 36017 0.45 0.00 100 TUE 03Z 12-NOV 32.0 28.9 00016 0.16 0.01 100 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 37.9 29.8 29.7 20.1 36015 0.17 0.02 97 TUE 09Z 12-NOV 25.2 9.1 36015 0.00 0.00 43

Nice hit for guys east tho,hope someone scores ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z NOV11 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 11-NOV 51.0 39.9 22004 0 MON 03Z 11-NOV 48.3 38.0 20005 96 MON 06Z 11-NOV 52.0 46.8 46.8 38.0 20004 100 MON 09Z 11-NOV 44.4 38.4 20003 0.00 0.00 95 MON 12Z 11-NOV 46.8 43.1 43.2 39.1 19003 0.00 0.00 64 MON 15Z 11-NOV 54.7 41.8 23005 0.00 0.00 23 MON 18Z 11-NOV 61.2 43.0 61.3 42.5 22007 0.00 0.00 49 MON 21Z 11-NOV 59.0 44.0 24006 0.00 0.00 88 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 62.3 54.4 54.3 45.0 20006 0.02 0.00 98 TUE 03Z 12-NOV 52.7 46.2 22006 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 54.3 45.9 45.6 45.2 34008 0.10 0.00 100 TUE 09Z 12-NOV 35.6 34.7 36008 0.20 0.01 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 45.6 31.5 31.4 29.0 36008 0.47 0.27 100 TUE 15Z 12-NOV 29.8 23.4 36009 0.06 0.06 100 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 00Z NOV11 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 11-NOV 46.6 38.0 20004 0 MON 03Z 11-NOV 44.6 38.3 17003 0 MON 06Z 11-NOV 48.2 42.2 44.2 37.2 30001 100 MON 09Z 11-NOV 40.2 36.2 14003 0.00 0.00 93 MON 12Z 11-NOV 46.0 37.9 38.4 35.3 18002 0.00 0.00 96 MON 15Z 11-NOV 53.5 40.2 24003 0.00 0.00 22 MON 18Z 11-NOV 60.1 38.1 60.2 40.3 24006 0.00 0.00 66 MON 21Z 11-NOV 58.6 42.6 25005 0.00 0.00 91 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 61.0 52.3 52.1 42.2 23005 0.00 0.00 86 TUE 03Z 12-NOV 49.4 44.7 22005 0.02 0.00 99 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 52.2 47.6 47.5 46.3 23004 0.05 0.00 100 TUE 09Z 12-NOV 38.8 38.6 33006 0.18 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 47.7 32.3 32.2 30.2 32007 0.35 0.13 100 TUE 15Z 12-NOV 30.2 23.1 33008 0.12 0.12 100 TUE 18Z 12-NOV 32.2 29.6 30.7 17.9 33009 0.12 0.12 94

Would actually put a nozzle in Jeff where he says it cant snow..lol ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 00Z NOV11 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 11-NOV 51.1 40.6 20005 58 MON 03Z 11-NOV 49.0 39.2 20005 100 MON 06Z 11-NOV 52.0 46.9 47.4 38.9 19005 98 MON 09Z 11-NOV 45.5 39.6 20004 0.00 0.00 88 MON 12Z 11-NOV 47.6 42.8 42.8 39.2 18004 0.00 0.00 4 MON 15Z 11-NOV 55.4 43.0 19003 0.00 0.00 2 MON 18Z 11-NOV 63.1 42.6 63.2 44.4 22006 0.00 0.00 89 MON 21Z 11-NOV 61.3 45.8 22004 0.00 0.00 95 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 63.3 55.3 55.1 46.9 20003 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 03Z 12-NOV 54.1 49.9 23004 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 55.1 46.6 45.6 45.4 33009 0.10 0.00 100 TUE 09Z 12-NOV 36.4 36.2 35010 0.17 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 45.6 32.1 31.9 29.4 35011 0.42 0.15 100 TUE 15Z 12-NOV 30.8 21.8 35012 0.01 0.01 99 TUE 18Z 12-NOV 35.2 30.4 35.3 17.9 35010 0.01 0.01 49

Euro bumped up and shows a change over around 9 or 10 tomorrow night for us,with almost 2" ,more in the east,only a dusting in the SW Valley more for you guys in the east,we'll see ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z NOV11 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 11-NOV 53.8 42.1 19007 81 MON 03Z 11-NOV 51.2 41.5 19006 100 MON 06Z 11-NOV 54.1 48.7 48.6 41.1 19006 97 MON 09Z 11-NOV 45.9 40.9 20005 0.00 0.00 83 MON 12Z 11-NOV 48.6 44.7 44.7 40.9 19006 0.00 0.00 2 MON 15Z 11-NOV 55.6 43.8 20007 0.00 0.00 57 MON 18Z 11-NOV 62.7 44.5 62.7 46.3 22007 0.00 0.00 98 MON 21Z 11-NOV 58.0 50.9 24003 0.03 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 62.8 48.6 48.0 47.2 33010 0.09 0.00 100 TUE 03Z 12-NOV 36.1 35.6 35011 0.13 0.01 100 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 48.1 30.6 30.4 27.4 34012 0.30 0.14 100 TUE 09Z 12-NOV 27.1 18.9 35013 0.03 0.03 83 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 30.4 22.8 22.6 11.6 35011 0.03 0.03 0 TUE 15Z 12-NOV 24.1 7.9 35011 0.00 0.00 0

Well we have the snow dome here..lol,,Been lasting for years

Well thanks for droppping by and your insight.I'm not familiar with your area in Australia but you guys on fire from the IOD ?Seen some sad vids from your parts

Good luck,still don't know why everyone says this is Modoki when the warmer SST'S in the subsurface are east of the IDL

Have to wait and see what the thermocline looks like after this KW passes.Sure looks like after the IO weakens into the first part of Dec the MJO and/or another WWB could be headed towards the IDL,you still have to look at right now where the warmer waters are right now into the subsurface which are more right now east of the IDL,really don't see how anyone right now could say this is more west/central based Nino pattern and not east..IMHO

NAM never does well with mesoscales outside 24 hrs,it's why no one uses it in severe weather

Waiting on Jamstec to update, the last couple updates it's been cold in the east,should happen anytime soon.The IOD looks to stenghten some what in upcoming but looks to slowly weaken into the 3rd week of Nov as the monsoonal flow is getting into the Sothern Hemispehere slowly seemingly

Really insane isn't it,Tn Valley at its best so far,our weather can be so volatile

Looks like quite a few records will go down Wed https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html#

Just looking at the EPS,no real upper level ridge other than S/Florida.Have to wait and see but i think we could see a strong system into the 3rd week of Nov with the wild swings with the SOI recently,guess we'll see Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Nov 2019 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 -4.71 -8.51 9 Nov 2019 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 -4.37 -8.38 8 Nov 2019 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 -4.38 -8.23 7 Nov 2019 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 -4.69 -8.01 6 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.75 -6.81 -5.28 -7.93 5 Nov 2019 1008.71 1011.25 -34.49 -5.28 -7.64 4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07 3 Nov 2019 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 -4.05 -6.62

Hopefully Grits forecast comes to reality on the main page,be nice to have BN and not AN for a change in winter

MJO is fixing to creep along the westen IO once again as the IOD stenghtens once again around Mid Nov, have to see what the Kelvin does and what kind of upwelling comes with iinto 3.4 and 3,this seems likely more of a chance to be more east based and not west,upcoming.

Nothing changed really with the 18z Euro

That was a nice run for TYS ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z NOV09 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 12Z 09-NOV 28.2 22.9 12003 2 SAT 18Z 09-NOV 50.0 28.0 50.2 29.0 24005 22 SUN 00Z 10-NOV 52.0 43.4 43.4 32.1 21005 0.00 0.00 2 SUN 06Z 10-NOV 43.5 39.7 39.7 32.4 21004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 10-NOV 39.8 38.3 38.9 34.3 21004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 10-NOV 60.0 38.9 60.2 38.7 23007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 11-NOV 61.6 51.5 51.3 40.6 21005 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 11-NOV 51.3 44.6 44.6 39.3 21003 0.00 0.00 99 MON 12Z 11-NOV 44.6 41.3 41.7 39.3 22003 0.00 0.00 54 MON 18Z 11-NOV 61.4 41.4 61.6 43.1 22007 0.00 0.00 58 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 62.6 54.1 54.0 43.0 21006 0.00 0.00 95 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 54.8 47.9 47.4 47.0 33007 0.14 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 47.4 30.8 30.6 27.6 36008 0.39 0.21 100 TUE 18Z 12-NOV 31.1 28.6 30.8 19.4 36009 0.06 0.06 94 WED 00Z 13-NOV 31.1 23.9 23.8 12.5 01006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 13-NOV 23.8 16.6 16.9 8.7 03004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 13-NOV 19.5 15.9 16.1 9.1 05003 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 13-NOV 34.8 15.6 35.0 18.4 00001 0.00 0.00 35 THU 00Z 14-NOV 38.7 27.9 28.8 19.9 19004 0.00 0.00 71 THU 06Z 14-NOV 31.3 24.7 28.7 19.2 18005 0.00 0.00 26 THU 12Z 14-NOV 29.7 24.5 26.1 17.5 18004 0.00 0.00 1 THU 18Z 14-NOV 45.9 25.5 46.1 22.0 23007 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 15-NOV 47.7 39.2 39.1 26.0 23004 0.00 0.00 4 FRI 06Z 15-NOV 39.5 32.5 34.3 27.0 19001 0.00 0.00 1 FRI 12Z 15-NOV 35.3 26.2 26.8 23.6 06003 0.00 0.00 11 FRI 18Z 15-NOV 49.1 26.7 49.3 32.7 01002 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 16-NOV 50.7 37.5 38.3 33.3 04003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 16-NOV 38.6 34.8 34.8 28.7 04004 0.00 0.00 88 SAT 12Z 16-NOV 34.9 32.2 32.2 27.4 06005 0.00 0.00 2

6Z Might be more snow than we got all last year

That's all we ever in general get in OUR parts when there is a low into the Gulf,clouds.