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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Ha Ha..You know its been sad when you get excited to hear a rumble of thunder,i was like this, this afternoon when i heard about 5 rumbles
  2. jaxjagman
    HRRR don't look half bad for your area later this afternoon into the early evening
  3. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

  4. jaxjagman
    I think this did expectionally well with the MJO and the +IOD the last time the MJO passed.It's seems to be consistently picking up on a paasing Kelvin Wave in the Eastern Pac,this would be part of Carvers time frame in the first week of Dec., but the MJO is showing nothing more than being suppressed into the Martitime,right now it seems to me the MJO could get into the western IO but then could weaken then right back into the COD afterwards,i really think the GEFS is more right with the MJO upcoming,least right now
  5. jaxjagman
    Right,i left out"but one",i edited it it before you posted this.Think we got about 6 inches here and you got close to 10-12"
  6. jaxjagman
    We havent seen but one good snow here in the last decade and this was in a Nina pattern
  7. jaxjagman
    If this type pattern would happen into winter i'd be a betting man we'd we would/could see a bowling ball into winter
  8. jaxjagman
    Be careful with the atmospheric River being shown this time of year in So Cali for our parts,usually it's when we see a more battle with heights and it kicks out the Upper Level Ridge out to fast,if this was winter tho
  9. jaxjagman
    if i recall correct it split more into 3,either way the PV was weak in fall into winter and it finally did the job Dec 31,pretty sure that is right.Happy T-Giving to you as welll
  10. jaxjagman
    Just went back to our historical winter thread,.I more reflect back with what the +IOD is doing in the strong years but i omitted 1997 because we went into a Very Strong El Nino into winter of 1997,but the ENSO in 1994 and 2006 is similar now,tho it could very well be not even into an actual Nino.this year. 1994 we had no SSW and 2006 we had a MAJOR in Jan Even wiithout the SSW in 1994 i saw where John posted back into 1994 it got colder than hell,not sure where he was talking about but either way -14 is cold everywhere in the Valley,not sure what happened with snow..2006 i believe there was a blizzard in the east in March which effected the eastern parts. Guess we'll see what happens,you can still get SSWE'S in the low solar min,but it seemingly would be hard to find a good analog right now especially what happening into the IO into early winter.It doesn't help either the PV is knocked off ot it's axis on the wrong side,seems the GFS today after the long haul has sided with the GEFS
  11. jaxjagman
    Pretty crazy how much the strongly positive IOD can effect these parts of the world with wild fires in Austrailia and floods in East Africa https://time.com/5738777/koalas-australia-bushfires/ https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2019-11-26-kenya-flooding-death-toll-rises-60
  12. jaxjagman
    Well,2nd anyways,in 1925 we did average 78.8 in 1925
  13. jaxjagman
    Sad part of this if you look at the data,this year was the warmest ever in Sept in Tn
  14. jaxjagman
    Like to know,1977 must have been a great blocking year,i looked back at any SSW and one happened Jan 9th,1977,this was in a weak ElNino year but even the fall temps in 1976 were just stupid cold even this was one of the coldest times even back from into the 1890's, in Tn.,just crazy looking https://sercc.com/climateinfo_files/monthly/Tennessee_temp_DivNew.htm Edit:Sorry,put 1997,meant 1977,i corrected it
  15. jaxjagman
    Looks like the control with no blocking,more crappie west pattern,pattern would be cutter city with cold chasing moisture,we all know how that works out well here
  16. jaxjagman
    Least a minor SSW upcoming by the GEFS,have to wait and see i think.This afternoon the GEPS which was seemingly in the GEFS camp seems to have switched more to the GFS in the long range Edit:Wrong about the last statemnet,GEPS has been more like the GFS not GEFS
  17. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Wouldn't be surprised now if every region is more on the + side today
  18. jaxjagman
    Very cool
  19. jaxjagman
    Just when you think the +IOD was going to waeken it comes back stronger.Even the strong event in 97 per Jamstec on 12-14 of that year was at+ 1.103 but this was in a Very strong ElNino unlike this year
  20. jaxjagman
    Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will be possible over a portion of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley region Tuesday. ...Lower to middle Mississippi Valley region... A strong shortwave trough now approaching the Great Basin will emerge over the central and southern Plains early Tuesday. A mid-upper jet within base of this feature will strengthen to 120 kt as the shortwave trough ejects negatively tilted through the middle MS Valley region. Lee cyclone initially over the southern High Plains will deepen within exit region of the upper jet as it develops northeast through the middle MS Valley by Tuesday evening. Trailing cold front will advance east and southeast through the central and southern Plains and MS Valley. By the end of the period the front should extend from a surface low over upper Great lakes southwest through LA and the TX coastal area. The boundary layer over the northwestern Gulf is in the process of modifying with latest observations showing dewpoints already in the upper 60s F. Positive theta-e advection promoted by southerly low-level winds will persist through Tuesday contributing to surface dewpoints near 70 F as far north as southern AR with upper 50s F into central MO. Widespread clouds should limit diabatic heating in warm sector, but MLCAPE should approach 1000 J/kg over the lower MS Valley. Farther north from eastern KS into MO the development of steeper lapse rates with colder air aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will contribute to marginal MLCAPE with 500-800 J/kg possible within a more shallow convective layer. Two primary zones of surface based thunderstorm development are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, including along the warm conveyor belt from northern LA into AR, western MS and TN, and farther north within zone of stronger pre-frontal forcing ahead of the cold front from eastern KS into MO and western IL. Broken bands of storms including potential for a few supercells and bowing segments will be possible in both of these regimes where vertical shear profiles will be more than adequate for organized structures with sizeable 0-1 km hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear. Primary limiting factor for higher severe probabilities is the expected marginal thermodynamic environment. Nevertheless, at least isolated damaging wind and a couple tornadoes will be possible with the stronger storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal
  21. jaxjagman
    Thought the EPS was to warm
  22. jaxjagman
    Be interesting to see how this winter evolves,The two strongest IOD events in modern day era happened into the mid 1990's into winter with no SSWE,in 2006 there was a SSWE into late Jan but the IOD peaked around Oct +1.3,but this year is the strongest event in modern day era back into 1980's,so the strronger years you wouldn't expect this to even have a SSWE,especially this year with the low solar min unlike past IOD event years which happened more into the mid decades.
  23. jaxjagman
    You have to remember when you look at peoples tweets on twitter are they talking about IMBY.We live in another warp zone to where they live at,just saying.
  24. jaxjagman
    Teleconnections look real ugly upcoming,Starting into the first week of Met winter.Really a huge uptick of the AO tho there are a some ensemble members don't show this while with a -PNA /+NAO.EPS really wants to build an strong Upper Level Ridge into the Valley,have to wait and see there ,looks to be a trough right now going through East Asia next Sunday,But either way we are going to seemingly warm up into the first week of Dec. seemingly,but i dont think it is as bad as what the EPS is showing
  25. jaxjagman
    See what it looks like in a few weeks.PV,MJO,etc.etc.Good news it's still Nov so no need to just yet..lol
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