jaxjagman

Wish we could access Ventrice models,i spend extra money if i could https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Merry Christmas everyone,may St.Nick visit us soon and not the Scrooge

Go out further and look at the AK

Lots going on around the IDL..CCKW,ROSSBY,WWB.With your CCKW which should upwell the warmer subsurface into region 4 possibly push the warmer surface east into 3.4.Lots of conflicting signals even on 850mb,if you use all the projected sums it's almost like the MJO is in 8,1.Now if you look at CA it shows this,to an extent.

Destructive signals continues with the MJO

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe thunderstorm potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday as an upper low moves over northern Mexico towards parts of the Southwest. Deterministic medium-range guidance continues to diverge from Day 5/Friday onward regarding the evolution of this upper low across the central/eastern CONUS. If a slower eastward movement occurs, this would potentially allow for greater low-level moisture return. Regardless of its eventual development, enhanced flow aloft attendant to the upper trough/low should foster strong vertical shear. However, instability is forecast to remain rather weak in both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF. Still, some severe threat may materialize from Day 5/Friday through Day 8/Monday over parts of the southern Plains, lower/mid MS Valley into the TN Valley, and Southeast. However, uncertainty in the location and amplitude of the upper trough/low and related surface features, along with concerns about weak instability, suggest predictability remains too low to include any severe probabilities.

Its not that bad yet

Yeah the EPS long range keep showing a snow chance upcoming around New Years with a trough going through East Asia,i think it's to fast myself.Keeps showing it around new years,not sure the pattern is that fast,thinking around the 3rd

EPS 12z today sends the PV going back to the pole but it's not vertically stacked,of course tho this is long range.The Euro is flipping the QBO seemingly each day,getting closer anyways

The MJO should be fun to follow.I don't mean to keep harping it.The WWB upcoming looks really strong west of the IDLwith a passing KW and ERW which more than likely will spawn a TC .The CFS today totally flipped the evolution of the signal.This ERW is what the RMMS show going back into the Maritime,remember,Rossby waves moves east to west,lots of destructive signals

You can see at least right now how into Russia the pattern we are in is getting broke down,at least right now

I would not be shocked if this Jan is not right,the EPS shows it from an EPO.But into winter when the NAO goes negative,we will be doomed in the Mid and western Valley.I'll be in Chicago the middle Jan for my sons gymnastics meet.We got lucky last year and it snowed about 6 inches while we was there,the year before that we walked around the zoo there in short sleaves..doh !!

Like the last weeklies of the EPS,into wk 2-3 -EPO,then it goes into a more -NAO afterwards,we should have snow chances here in Mid and western Valley from cutters,after this if its right,it will be a sob story for us in the Mid and western Valley other than snot blowing cold noses wk 4,it will turn colder seemingly

Yeah but seemingly we are fixing to lose wave-2 and wave-1 will seemingly start to weaken as the heights get pumped into Siberia some what to speak.This should strengten the PV later on but the blocking would push the PV towards NA,I have my doubts we will see a SSW.JMHO

It shows a more Nino pattern and a potential more Modokish look

Sure looks like we are seeing pattern change into Russia into Mongolia

Did the same thing,it's a pain to use

Be interesting to see how the RMMS do,you have alot of stuff that's fixing to happen along the IDL,a low, Rossby wave , Kelvin Wave ,WWB with a more suppressed IOD for a change,the strongest SST'S along the IDL.I still wonder if they will whiff out,but that's what they show right now

The charts update monthly.The daily QBO map still shows shows westerlies, i put a point on it on the 50hpa,so basically you want to see on the graph bar the line on the chart on the other side.You can also use Berlin zonal winds for a prediction,it shows the westerlies decreasing in the upcoming days,if it's right of course,they both show something different today

EPS has rain and snow next weekend,Euro on the other hand is starting to resemble the last severe weather event recently

Seems like we are headed into the right direction from past strongly +IOD events lasting into fall/winter.When the strong +IOD occurs(1994,1997,2006) in the late season the ENSO into 3.4 gets stronger on the ONI in the winter months,but it peaks out in "DJF"some what and after that starts to fall into a LaNina more or less into summer 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3

Last year on DEC.17TH the RMMS showed the MJO out of the COD(phase-4) and then going back into the COD the next several days later.Then on the 24th the MJO actually ended up out of the COD into phase 5. RMMS are good tools to use, but can be very volatile at times.They are more usefull when you have a stronger signal than a weak one

Firgured the Euro would be completely different today

MJO by the RMMS continue to show it going into phase 6,seems still they are having a tough go with the signal which seems destructive from Rossby/Kelvin Waves.The GEFS today looks more progressive. The EPS did look quite nice,lets hope it continues to show this

2013-14 came in mind when Webber mentioned the TNH,we had the dome over us..lol..so we were safe but that was quite a bit of ice that year