jaxjagman

Another suck winter for us,we'll be headed towards 3-years without any event bringing a inch or more snow next winter. If the Euro is right with this system up coming you guys possibly could get a surprise in the east towards next weekend,alot would have to depend on this trough,to warm for us ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z FEB28 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 28-FEB 0.0 -5.5 129 817 21006 FRI 18Z 28-FEB 3.9 -5.8 130 1011 25010 SAT 00Z 29-FEB 2.1 -5.0 130 1542 26006 0.02 SAT 06Z 29-FEB 0.5 -5.9 129 787 25007 0.02 SAT 12Z 29-FEB -1.3 -10.5 128 0 29007 0.02 SAT 18Z 29-FEB 3.5 -8.7 129 633 29005 0.00 SUN 00Z 01-MAR 0.2 -3.8 130 1744 26004 0.00 SUN 06Z 01-MAR -2.4 0.5 131 4415 18004 0.00 SUN 12Z 01-MAR -1.6 1.6 131 6039 19003 0.00 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 12.3 3.0 134 5601 23006 0.00 MON 00Z 02-MAR 9.6 4.3 135 6287 19005 0.00 MON 06Z 02-MAR 6.2 3.6 134 6067 19004 0.00 MON 12Z 02-MAR 5.5 4.2 133 5901 16005 0.05 MON 18Z 02-MAR 9.5 4.9 134 7191 20008 0.23 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 9.7 7.1 135 7839 19005 0.09 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 9.7 9.4 136 7630 19005 0.16 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 11.6 9.9 136 7695 21006 0.29 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 14.5 9.7 137 8411 23005 0.23 WED 00Z 04-MAR 14.6 9.9 137 8328 21007 0.08 WED 06Z 04-MAR 11.6 6.9 136 7482 26007 0.06 WED 12Z 04-MAR 7.9 4.3 134 8335 34004 0.01 WED 18Z 04-MAR 15.6 5.4 135 9064 25003 0.00 THU 00Z 05-MAR 11.6 8.2 136 8216 24003 0.00 THU 06Z 05-MAR 8.5 4.8 135 6512 06001 0.01 THU 12Z 05-MAR 6.2 3.6 133 7975 05008 0.55 THU 18Z 05-MAR 8.1 2.3 133 8724 05008 0.38 FRI 00Z 06-MAR 6.1 1.5 132 5735 01004 0.23 FRI 06Z 06-MAR 4.0 -0.8 131 5378 26004 0.00 FRI 12Z 06-MAR 3.9 -2.7 131 1718 27009 0.16 FRI 18Z 06-MAR 3.8 -4.6 130 1183 29011 0.06 SAT 00Z 07-MAR 0.8 -7.6 129 423 32010 0.12 SAT 06Z 07-MAR -1.1 -10.7 128 3 35009 0.05 SAT 12Z 07-MAR -2.6 -11.8 127 0 35008 0.01 SAT 18Z 07-MAR 2.4 -10.0 128 425 35009 0.00 SUN 00Z 08-MAR -0.2 -8.1 129 873 01005 0.00 SUN 06Z 08-MAR -3.9 -4.9 128 0 04004 0.00 SUN 12Z 08-MAR -5.7 -0.6 129 601 06004 0.00 SUN 18Z 08-MAR 7.7 0.8 132 4980 04003 0.00 MON 00Z 09-MAR 3.2 2.4 133 5956 10003 0.00 MON 06Z 09-MAR 0.9 3.6 132 7084 20004 0.00 MON 12Z 09-MAR -1.7 3.8 132 7089 20004 0.00

Slow Euro or faster GFS ?Who will win? Euro dont show much of any flooding as it crashed the 300mb jet through the Valley while the GFS is into the OV.Could be the Euro doing its typical thing holding back energy to the west,who knows

Mem CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB27 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 12Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 7.7 548 135 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 15.8 548 135 MON 00Z 02-MAR 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.08 15.3 552 136 MON 06Z 02-MAR 0.24 0.24 0.00 0.32 12.6 552 135 MON 12Z 02-MAR 0.26 0.25 0.00 0.58 11.7 554 136 MON 18Z 02-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.59 18.2 556 137 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.60 17.9 559 138 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.71 17.0 561 138 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 0.56 0.38 0.00 1.27 16.3 560 137 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 0.60 0.26 0.00 1.88 17.6 562 138 WED 00Z 04-MAR 0.95 0.58 0.00 2.82 17.2 566 138 WED 06Z 04-MAR 2.21 1.13 0.00 5.03 13.9 564 137 WED 12Z 04-MAR 0.48 0.12 0.00 5.50 12.9 560 136 WED 18Z 04-MAR 0.44 0.11 0.00 5.94 9.3 549 133 THU 00Z 05-MAR 0.09 0.01 0.00 6.03 7.6 537 133 THU 06Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 7.1 539 132 THU 12Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 2.4 544 133 THU 18Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 15.7 548 134 FRI 00Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 13.2 551 135 FRI 06Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 10.1 552 136 FRI 12Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 6.9 553 135

No doubt the boundary stalls out over the Valley somewhere,wouldnt pin point any area this far out BNA ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB27 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 12Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 1.2 545 133 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 15.3 546 135 MON 00Z 02-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 12.9 548 135 MON 06Z 02-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 10.2 549 134 MON 12Z 02-MAR 0.29 0.24 0.00 0.38 8.4 550 134 MON 18Z 02-MAR 0.08 0.07 0.00 0.46 13.3 552 135 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.47 13.7 554 136 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.53 13.6 557 137 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 0.30 0.09 0.00 0.83 15.0 559 137 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 0.44 0.12 0.00 1.27 16.1 560 137 WED 00Z 04-MAR 0.60 0.16 0.00 1.88 16.3 564 138 WED 06Z 04-MAR 0.75 0.24 0.00 2.63 17.3 566 138 WED 12Z 04-MAR 1.62 0.35 0.00 4.25 12.7 563 137 WED 18Z 04-MAR 2.49 0.33 0.00 6.74 11.2 563 135 THU 00Z 05-MAR 0.39 0.05 0.00 7.13 5.8 541 131 THU 06Z 05-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 7.14 3.4 530 131 THU 12Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 1.2 536 131 THU 18Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 13.5 543 133 FRI 00Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 11.1 547 135 FRI 06Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 8.0 547 135 FRI 12Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 4.5 548 134

Its about the same date the EF4 hit Alabama last year Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to come into better agreement regarding the eastward ejection of an upper trough/low from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern/central Plains from Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley in this time frame. The past several runs of the deterministic ECMWF have been relatively consistent in the timing and amplitude of the eastward ejection of the upper trough/low. The potential for substantial low-level moisture return across parts of east TX into the ArkLaMiss by Day 6/Tuesday has increased. Low and mid-level flow are also forecast to markedly strengthen across these areas, particularly Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. With strong forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough/low, a surface low should deepen as it develops northeastward from portions of east TX into the vicinity of the Mid-South. A trailing cold front should also shift eastward across TX into parts of the lower MS Valley by the end of the Day 6/Tuesday period (early Wednesday morning). A thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space favorable for the formation and maintenance of organized severe thunderstorms will probably exist over these areas from Tuesday evening though early Wednesday morning. Storms could form both along and ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, with all severe hazards possible. Therefore, a 15% severe delineation has been introduced for Day 6/Tuesday. There is some uncertainty with how far east the threat will extend into MS late Tuesday night, and adjustments to this 15% area are likely. Uncertainty in the placement of both the upper trough/low and related surface low increases into Day 7/Wednesday. At least some severe threat may continue across parts of the Southeast (mainly AL/GA vicinity), but low-level moisture should gradually decrease with eastward extent. 15% severe probabilities may be needed in a later outlook issuance over parts of the Southeast on Day 7/Wednesday once the synoptic-scale evolution becomes a bit clearer. ..Gleason.. 02/27/2020

Subsurface still looks warm.CFS shows close to a strong Nina by August

Looks better than yesterday,Euro showed some better theta .GFS shows the DP'S almost in the mid 60;s around Memphis on this afternoons run.But 8-9-days out you should know the drill by now with the models

Yeah i was just looking,convection down south would choke off the capesLow cape/high shear.Sure we'll see changes upcoming

Oh La La

Maybe we are headed into a cycle with the IOD?I omitted the IOD into 1997 because this was such a viscous cycle based on the ONI but still has some merit,but seemingly after a strong IOD year we see a strong ElNino sign roughly three years after,probably means nothing,just pointing out a possibility 1993 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6

In moderate Ninas its a crap shoot for the Valley.Unless we get the right teleconnections -AO/+PNA we will see a more of the cold locked up above us,but what's new theses last winters,but Carver is right with his teleconnection discussion up above.To be honest all Ninas in avg,if its neutral,weak or moderate your chances of cold winters would weigh slightly warmer than colder and strong Ninas from the past would just make you think about the folllowing winter and forget the one you are in In typical strong IOD years, like this year the ENSO would seem to go more negative into winter.I.E 95,98,07.So the IOD would seemingly be a non-player with the MJO signal,like this year. In some of these years 95,98,07 looking at SSWE years,1995 didn't have one,.1998 had one Dec 16th while 2007 was Feb 23rd,so no help here.But SSWE's would result in the same out coming because it would depend on blocking and when it actually does occur.In the winter of 1995 was a cold winter without a SSWE. But the coldest winter,i'm just basing this on the strong IOD years was back into the 1995-96 winter without a SSWE 3) Winter 1995/96 The 1995/96 winter (DJF) season featured abnormally cold and snowy conditions in the northern plains, the eastern half of the Midwest, the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic states, and much of Canada. For the season as whole, temperatures averaged 3°-5oC below normal across western and central Canada, and 1°-2oC below normal across the northern tier of the United States and throughout the eastern seaboard from Florida to New England (see section 5, Fig. 59a ). In the East, these conditions contrasted with the abnormally warm temperatures and low snowfall totals (less than 25% of normal) observed during the 1994/95 winter. One prominent aspect of the 1995/96 winter season was a recurring pattern of enhanced northwesterly flow, which extended from northern Alaska and the Bering Sea to southeastern Canada and the north-central United States. This flow brought a series of major winter storms and severe winter outbreaks to the northern and eastern United States, resulting in record-breaking cold and snowfall totals in many regions. The season also featured considerable variability over large portions of the United States and Canada, with periods of extreme cold and snow followed by brief periods of warmth and rain. The most notable cold-air outbreak occurred during 29 January-6 February 1996, when temperatures averaged 11°-17oC below normal from the southern Canadian prairies southeastward through the northern and central plains and western Great Lakes and more than 6oC below normal throughout the rest of the United States with the exception of the Southwest. Temperatures dropped below -40oC throughout interior Canada during the period and below -46oC in some portions of central Canada. In the United States, all-time record low temperatures were set in four states (Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Rhode Island), and nearly 400 daily record lows were either tied or broken. Additionally, the cold temperatures were accompanied by strong winds that produced extreme wind chill temperatures below -50oC over much of Canada and large portions of the northern United States. The upper-level height and anomaly fields (Fig. 48a) reveal that the Arctic outbreak was associated with a highly amplified flow, featuring above-normal heights across the high latitudes of the central North Pacific and well below normal heights throughout central North America. Within this flow pattern, height contours originating in Alaska, eastern Siberia, and the Arctic Circle covered central and southern Canada and extended southeastward across the upper one-third of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. This pattern resulted in a sustained flow of pure Arctic air into central and eastern North America. This Arctic outbreak was immediately followed during 6-10 February by much milder air across central North America. During this 5-day period, temperatures reached 21oC in the plains states, more than a 50oC increase from the record-low readings observed the prior week. At Tulsa, Oklahoma, new February extreme minimum (-24oC) and maximum (32.2oC) records were set within 18 days of each other in association with the Arctic outbreak and subsequent warm-up. This warm-up was associated with a large-scale transition in the upper-level flow to below-normal heights and a deep trough over western Alaska and an amplified ridge over the intermountain region of North America (Fig. 48b). This pattern resulted in a strong and extensive flow of marine air from the central North Pacific into virtually all of North America. Overall, snowfall totals by the end of February averaged more than 150% of normal over the Dakotas and the upper Midwest and over the central and eastern United States from Indiana northeastward to southeastern Maine and southeastward to the Virginia coast (Fig. 49). Totals exceeded 200% of normal from southern Virginia northward to northern Massachusetts, and more than 300% of normal snowfall was recorded from central Maryland northward to southern New York and throughout the southern Appalachian Mountains region. Totals also averaged 200%-300% of normal over eastern North Dakota, northwestern Minnesota, and western South Dakota. Many locations established new all-time record seasonal snowfall totals during the 1995/96 cold season (Table 2). The largest total snowfall (573 cm) was observed at Sault Saint Marie, Michigan, which broke its previous highest total snowfall accumulation record of 454 cm. Most of the other records were established in the East, extending from Virginia in the south to Massachusetts in the Northeast. For many of these cities, the previous snowfall records were broken by mid-February. In some locations the previous record snowfall totals were exceeded by more than 60 cm during the winter of 1995/96. Perhaps the most notable snow event during the winter was the blizzard of 6-9 January 1996, which af fected the entire eastern United States. During this event, 50-120 cm of snow covered the eastern seaboard from the mid-Ohio valley eastward to eastern Virginia and northward to southern Massachusetts (Fig. 50). Totals exceeded 76 cm at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, establishing a new single-storm record, and reached 87.5 cm in west-central New Jersey and 120 cm in Pocahantas County, West Virginia. Additionally, most areas from Washington, D.C., northeastward to Providence, Rhode Island, reported one of the five biggest single-storm snowfall totals on record during the storm, which resulted in a shutdown of most airports on the East Coast from Virginia northward and made other modes of transportation virtually impossible. In contrast, during the following week the eastern United States experienced a dramatic warm-up and heavy rains (50-150 mm), resulting in a rapid snow melt and extensive runoff. These conditions produced flooding throughout the mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast during 19-24 January. During this period, all major rivers in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, New York, and Vermont crested 1.2 m-3.6 m above flood stage. In many areas, this was the highest recorded crest since the flooding associated with Hurricane Agnes in June 1972. Back to Table of Contents

Not a great looking pattern upcoming,its still winter right now tho.Control looks about about like what the GFS looks like in the long range today You almost hit it,poor theta with some K-Index and some weak showalter could get some elevated thunder,still looks like a clippper like system behind it that will spit some flakes at us Wednesday,but it dont look as strong today

All kinds other drivers to look at ,certainly you want a CE.Ninas just like Nino dont always work the same.The IOD, would seem to be right now as a starting point.In the strongest three-+IOD events, the ENSO has always crashed from "OND"the year of the strong IOD event years into the following tri-monthly year "OND" 1995 -2.0...."OND" OF 1994 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +1.0,the following year "OND" was -1,0 1998 -3.9 "OND" OF 1997 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +2.4 the following year "OND" was -1.5 2007 -2.4 "OND" OF 2006 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +0.9 the following year "OND" was -1.5 More study needs/ seems to be needed. The most negative the IOD has been since 1982 happened in 2016 coming off the strongest Nino that ever developed into winter of 2015 that went into a LaNina in winter of 2016,this broke the snow dome here with some parts getting close to if not a foot of snow from one storm.. ENSO can be quite different.Just look at the maps 2010-2011, this was in a resurgent Nina time that collapsed briefly into the sping/summer 2011,But the winter of 2010 was cold but not so in the 2011 winter

APEC Update

Finally updated

Wish they'd update the Pentad,no update in almost two weeks it seems like Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 17 February 2020 • Enhanced convection over the Western Pacific amplified over the past week, becoming the more dominant center of action in the tropics. Constructive interference from a Kelvin wave moving eastward out of the Indian Ocean aided in this strengthening. Westward propagating Rossby waves and tropical cyclone activity has led to a stall in the eastward propagation of the convective envelope. • Dynamical model guidance indicates that this enhanced convection is likely to decay over the next week, but possibly continue eastward propagation with the weakened signal. The ECMWF and GEFS guidance show differing solutions on the RMM index as we move into week-2; however, both signals are fairly unorganized, diminishing confidence in forecasts for any strong renewed signal for the MJO toward the end of the month. • Growing anomalous low-level westerly winds along the equator in the western Pacific is starting to show impacts on the upper-oceanic heat content anomalies. This could have further implications for the El Niño state if the downwelling continues, increasing the available warm water at depth across the basin.

Yeah i mentioned this last night in the winter thread with the through going through Korea,this is the time frame you are showing but we'll have to see how the synoptics work out upcoming

Seemingly,untill the NWS inspects it.Lawrence Co got its 2nd tornado in a week.The first one was a EF-1 that hit downtown Lawrenceburg,luckily that was during the evening or that could have been much worse.Last night one hit towards 5-points.Nashvilles radar seemingly went down as the line got close to us.More than likely as the squall line got to the office on Old Hickory Rd the radar went down for a short time,so there was no alert from this.Luckily no injuries that i'm aware of. https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/ema-lawrence-county-hit-again-with-straight-line-winds-possible-tornado/

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0051 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 552 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Areas affected...Portions of the TN & OH Valleys Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 122251Z - 130451Z Summary...A band of heavy rainfall is expected to move across central portions of TN and KY. Hourly rain totals to 1" and local amounts of 2" are expected. Discussion...A developing atmospheric river extending from the Mid-South towards the Ohio River Valley along with increased low level moisture convergence/frontogenesis has led to a band of heavy rainfall producing hourly rain totals to 1" per KY mesonet observations. This band is progressive, though it is moving over and into an area with two week precipitation at 200-300% of average, more to the south across northern AL, which has led to saturated soils. Precipitable water values of 1-1.3" lie here per GPS values. Inflow at 850 hPa is south-southwest at 55-80 knots per VAD wind profiles. MU CAPE is negligible per SPC mesoanalyses. The best guess is that increasing moisture convergence/ frontogenesis has played the main role in hourly rain totals approaching the precipitable water value. The 18z HREF probabilities of 0.5"+ per hour increase to likely as the band moves eastward across central KY and Middle TN with a small percent chance of 1" an hour. KY mesonet obs suggest the HREF probability guidance, as well as WSR 88D hourly rainfall totals, are underperforming here. Local amounts of 2" are possible before the line accelerates as it reaches into eastern KY and eastern TN, which could cause issues over saturated soils and area coal fields. Roth

Jamstec seasonals has a update or upgrade one. Be intersting to see how the ocean does.It shows the SST's cooling into the summer but getting warmer into fall once again SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system (Doi et al. 2017). This system is a upgrade version of the SINTEX-F2 ystem in terms of the ocean initialization. In this system, OGCM SSTs are strongly nudged toward the observations in the coupled run continuously from January 1982, which is similar to the simple SST-nudging scheme used in the F2-system. In addition, 3DVAR correction is conducted every 1st day of each month using subsurface ocean temperature and salinity observation. The set of in situ observations consists of all types of ocean profiling instruments that provide temperature and salinity (when available) from the expandable bathythermographs (XBTs), mooring buoys, sea stations, Argo floats, etc. The details of the 3DVAR scheme used here such as formulation and specification of observation and background error covariances are shown in Storto et al. (2014) You can read all the new updates here

Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 February 2020 • A pair of slow-moving envelopes of enhanced convection exist in the global tropics. The first is presently over the Western Indian Ocean, while the second is over the Maritime Continent. • Model guidance disagrees on which of these will come to dominate, with the GEFS emphasizing the latter center of action, while the ECMWF splits the difference and maintains both features. • Given this complicated perspective, extratropical circulation responses to the MJO are difficult to anticipate at this time. • A noteworthy possibility exists for anomalous low-level westerly winds east of New Guinea associated with the easternmost envelope of enhanced convection to potentially trigger a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. This would help to reinforce the volume of warm water available below the surface in the Pacific and possibly fuel an El Niño event.

Impressive Huntsville ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MDQ LAT= 34.87 LON= -86.55 ELE= 755 18Z FEB09 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 18Z 09-FEB 13.4 551 134 MON 00Z 10-FEB 0.00 11.3 554 135 MON 06Z 10-FEB 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 9.2 556 135 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.14 0.11 0.00 0.16 8.1 557 135 MON 18Z 10-FEB 0.74 0.53 0.00 0.89 12.1 560 136 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 0.99 0.33 0.00 1.88 14.3 562 138 TUE 06Z 11-FEB 0.68 0.09 0.00 2.56 14.9 563 137 TUE 12Z 11-FEB 1.37 0.14 0.00 3.93 13.6 564 137 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 0.48 0.02 0.00 4.41 14.0 559 135 WED 00Z 12-FEB 0.01 0.00 0.00 4.42 11.5 558 135 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.10 0.00 0.00 4.53 6.8 558 134 WED 12Z 12-FEB 0.11 0.00 0.00 4.63 7.8 560 135 WED 18Z 12-FEB 0.05 0.00 0.00 4.68 14.4 564 137 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.03 0.01 0.00 4.71 18.3 567 139 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.02 0.01 0.00 4.73 19.0 567 139 THU 12Z 13-FEB 1.17 0.11 0.00 5.90 11.0 561 136 Cha ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 18Z FEB09 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 18Z 09-FEB 10.0 549 133 MON 00Z 10-FEB 0.00 7.6 553 134 MON 06Z 10-FEB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.4 554 134 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.06 6.1 556 134 MON 18Z 10-FEB 0.46 0.17 0.00 0.52 9.6 558 135 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 0.79 0.41 0.00 1.31 11.4 560 137 TUE 06Z 11-FEB 0.93 0.10 0.00 2.24 13.2 562 137 TUE 12Z 11-FEB 1.68 0.15 0.00 3.92 14.0 562 137 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 1.03 0.07 0.00 4.95 17.4 561 137 WED 00Z 12-FEB 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.95 12.5 558 135 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.06 0.00 0.00 5.01 8.4 558 134 WED 12Z 12-FEB 0.08 0.00 0.00 5.09 7.4 560 135 WED 18Z 12-FEB 0.04 0.00 0.00 5.13 12.7 563 136 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.06 0.03 0.00 5.19 15.2 565 138 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.01 0.00 0.00 5.20 17.7 566 138 THU 12Z 13-FEB 0.25 0.05 0.00 5.45 16.9 565 138

Seemingly NCAR and the CFS shows a resurgent ENSO upcoming which seems quite possible while the others don't.Oddly,they show the strongest Nina upcoming.

ENSO upcoming is going to be a punching bag east of the IDL from ERW,KW and MJO.Plus signs of a possible strong WWB upcoming