jaxjagman

Not really sure why this would be a -NAO,the SPV is sitting over Greenland basically

iF have that -NAO look you should see lowering heights not rising,i call this run BS

It dont work like this

More less,you should not see those heights pump up in the east

If that is a -NAO, you should not see that SER..IMHO,LEAST WHAT THE gefs SHOWS

My thinking is where the SPV is going to be is what the models are doing

For those that want to learn the EPO

Here is the EPS H360

No doubt,lets hope these good signs continue

Almost looks like the EPS i posted above where the Rex block gets into the AK

Who knows if it's right,but it is certainly better today.Look where the SPV is

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Mid South and central Gulf States vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening, with at least some potential for a few to become severe, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid/upper troughing likely will encompass much of the Rockies, Plains and Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday, with a fairly deep embedded occluding cyclone centered over the mid Missouri Valley region and a significant short wave impulse turning eastward into the base of the trough across the southern Plains. The short wave is forecast to remain progressive, and models suggest that it will pivot in negatively-tilted fashion while accelerating across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley region, around the southeastern periphery of the cyclone, as another significant short wave perturbation digs toward the southern California coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by considerable intensification of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields across much of the Mississippi Valley through the Appalachians, and may contribute to support for renewed cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. While the initial and developing secondary surface cyclones may encompass a broad area, with a potentially sizable warm sector, it still appears that considerable cloud cover, associated rain, and otherwise generally weak lapse rates will inhibit boundary layer destabilization, particularly from the Ohio River northward. Even east of the lower Mississippi Valley, where surface dew points are forecast to increase through the 60s, models continue to indicate that mixed-layer CAPE may maximize in the 250-500 J/kg range Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Mid South/central Gulf States... Severe weather potential for Sunday through Sunday night still appears largely conditioned on sufficient warm sector destabilization. East of the lower Mississippi Valley, forecast soundings indicate moist low-level profiles supportive of boundary-layer based instability, though with very limited CAPE due to weak lapse rates. It is still not certain that this environment will become supportive of appreciable severe weather potential, but it might marginally be enough given the forecast strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields through the day, and favorable large-scale forcing for ascent. South to southwesterly winds in the 850-500 mb layer, within the warm sector, are forecast to strengthen to 50-70+ kt through the day across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Vertical shear for boundary-layer based storms will be strong and conducive to organized severe convection, including potential for one or more evolving lines and discrete supercells. At least some model output suggests that a developing low-level confluence zone could become one focus for the initiation and intensification of storms, well ahead of the surface cold front, across Alabama into eastern Tennessee by late Sunday afternoon. However, confidence is greater that a corridor of forcing for ascent, along/just ahead of the eastward advancing front, will become the primary focus for any possible vigorous convective development. It appears that this may advance east of the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon, before continuing northeastward and eastward through the Tennessee Valley and at least northern portions of Mississippi/Alabama by Sunday evening. Potentially damaging surface gusts aided by downward momentum transport seems the most prominent/widespread possible severe hazard, but a couple of isolated tornadoes may not be out of the question. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None

Like the Rex block the Euro shows towards the Aleutian Islands,just need it go into the AK,GOA.Least if it goes into the AK we might at least get help with the EPO

Euro got colder that run,looks more GFS,last run the Euro showed the trough trying to go -ve tilt,this run is more positive,like the GFS,Looks like some good low level shear tho so some one should get some good rains.Probably the better convection would be in the eastern where the better theta-e is showing,least thats what it looks right now.Still the teconnections suck right now on the Euro tonight

Just a little LLJ,have to wait and see, Euro might now even show it next run,first time it's shown this it was more like the GFS recently

You really like to see the low get kicked out of the Baffin Bay/Greenland that just spins for days.We arent getting help from the Pac anytime soon,least right now.If we have a change of any it seemingly will go with the MJO towards the mid month

Probably one thing that could make or break the MJO is going to be once again the +IOD.CFS wants to give it one last hurrah before it goes away then it totally weakens it sig. into the 2nd week of Jan.,so this should be a player of how the MJO progresses.But looks like a nice KW moving through into the first of the year,big storm?Sure looks like it,look at the entrance of that jet.But a couple days ago the Euro showed snow,now it's more severe

RMMS are having troubles,the Euro and GEFS shows it going into 8,1 now

Looks like when the QBO wants to flip it's going to flip when it wants..lol.TBH i'm not sure there is any time line in months now,it's been on the decline tho for the last 6 months 1948 2019 1948 -4.44 -5.78 -7.31 -6.70 -5.57 -4.73 -5.51 -7.22 -7.24 -6.07 -6.28 -8.18 1949 -9.77 -11.80 -11.72 -10.69 -9.34 -9.43 -9.07 -9.08 -8.32 -7.01 -6.43 -7.24 1950 -8.99 -11.37 -10.63 -8.19 -6.09 -6.61 -7.11 -6.51 -3.82 -2.39 -2.18 -3.31 1951 -6.01 -5.32 -1.93 0.91 2.26 -0.30 -2.70 -5.31 -5.92 -4.59 -3.65 -3.98 1952 -6.80 -7.71 -6.99 -5.68 -4.76 -6.00 -7.60 -8.15 -5.73 -2.96 -0.51 -1.65 1953 -2.94 -2.68 -1.22 1.30 2.69 1.86 0.10 -1.21 -1.28 -0.39 -0.59 -2.18 1954 -5.05 -6.88 -7.98 -9.01 -11.38 -12.72 -13.40 -14.53 -12.83 -10.35 -9.99 -9.56 1955 -5.82 -1.71 1.37 4.40 6.58 6.73 5.99 7.20 8.16 9.02 7.63 3.82 1956 -1.01 -3.23 -2.01 -2.01 -6.16 -11.02 -13.04 -15.17 -14.67 -14.90 -16.96 -15.02 1957 -13.05 -11.89 -6.68 -2.01 1.80 3.21 4.05 6.30 8.36 10.46 10.11 7.35 1958 5.25 4.10 4.27 1.98 -4.71 -10.60 -13.91 -15.59 -15.93 -16.39 -16.91 -18.96 1959 -20.06 -17.24 -14.02 -9.27 -5.91 -2.30 3.15 7.07 10.09 11.69 10.71 8.30 1960 4.79 3.39 -0.04 -1.08 -3.91 -8.98 -13.86 -16.04 -16.01 -15.62 -14.42 -11.36 1961 -5.47 -0.62 0.54 2.82 6.88 7.96 6.69 5.60 6.02 7.59 8.74 6.25 1962 2.84 3.68 5.26 2.04 -3.64 -11.42 -15.49 -15.00 -15.19 -15.33 -15.40 -15.16 1963 -17.35 -16.68 -19.93 -21.52 -24.18 -20.08 -9.27 -1.35 3.52 7.54 8.87 5.48 1964 3.94 5.26 5.46 5.94 6.32 2.23 -0.56 -0.57 -0.67 0.42 0.71 0.04 1965 -1.03 -2.26 -1.98 -3.44 -7.10 -12.01 -16.00 -18.19 -20.03 -20.13 -19.74 -21.27 1966 -21.90 -17.14 -11.07 -2.33 2.16 5.42 7.47 7.63 9.23 11.00 11.74 13.26 1967 11.03 10.49 10.94 10.13 5.79 -0.58 -5.65 -6.76 -6.06 -4.82 -6.05 -7.27 1968 -8.38 -10.21 -9.11 -12.25 -14.39 -19.27 -21.00 -21.82 -17.45 -14.58 -13.11 -11.36 1969 -8.58 -4.43 -1.50 3.98 8.18 9.35 9.08 9.78 9.74 9.75 7.34 5.00 1970 0.30 -1.41 -4.63 -7.25 -12.21 -16.25 -18.62 -21.38 -21.67 -22.12 -22.48 -17.39 1971 -10.67 -3.67 0.91 3.75 6.77 8.28 8.88 8.34 8.95 8.48 8.47 9.10 1972 8.20 7.95 7.35 6.22 -2.59 -10.70 -15.45 -19.28 -20.40 -21.17 -20.49 -16.78 1973 -4.40 0.08 3.40 6.28 8.12 8.63 6.94 5.86 5.51 5.20 4.92 2.31 1974 -0.91 -1.31 -1.08 -1.92 -7.58 -13.86 -19.58 -23.14 -23.52 -23.12 -22.48 -22.57 1975 -16.70 -15.39 -13.04 -5.12 1.18 4.47 7.41 9.06 10.25 10.65 11.27 10.95 1976 9.22 8.92 9.70 11.53 10.04 2.78 -1.90 -4.89 -6.19 -8.23 -8.89 -11.85 1977 -14.44 -14.90 -17.61 -14.93 -17.14 -21.33 -18.17 -11.24 -5.09 -1.81 -0.26 1.69 1978 3.21 6.07 9.34 12.98 12.23 8.36 6.02 5.84 5.91 6.22 4.04 1.46 1979 1.86 4.12 0.89 -3.57 -12.90 -19.60 -21.27 -22.24 -22.70 -23.32 -22.20 -16.99 1980 -10.11 -5.65 -2.90 2.31 6.24 7.33 8.74 9.61 12.67 13.10 12.15 9.73 1981 8.51 6.72 7.51 8.28 3.01 -3.49 -5.22 -8.24 -8.59 -9.53 -9.62 -12.31 1982 -12.52 -14.71 -16.67 -15.55 -15.26 -15.94 -8.95 -1.58 4.21 8.27 9.51 10.35 1983 10.85 11.40 12.17 13.81 11.93 3.12 -3.38 -6.53 -7.75 -10.12 -10.29 -11.42 1984 -10.65 -11.34 -12.98 -14.58 -15.05 -17.97 -25.39 -27.90 -25.44 -21.59 -13.19 -8.16 1985 -0.37 4.21 6.30 11.11 13.57 14.04 11.10 11.08 11.72 11.84 11.45 9.51 1986 8.74 10.15 11.96 9.11 3.56 -2.15 -5.25 -9.60 -10.21 -9.60 -8.01 -10.51 1987 -9.93 -11.37 -14.23 -16.20 -20.05 -21.47 -13.96 -0.60 5.88 9.35 9.23 8.41 1988 7.81 6.17 5.86 6.59 5.46 0.42 -3.96 -2.58 -2.29 -1.53 -0.84 -2.42 1989 -2.87 -3.56 -1.63 -1.93 -5.46 -9.38 -13.86 -16.98 -18.83 -21.30 -19.01 -13.54 1990 -8.71 -6.74 0.95 5.72 11.46 12.90 12.54 12.63 13.21 12.39 11.55 10.68 1991 8.71 8.44 9.00 10.69 3.82 -3.34 -10.36 -14.69 -13.96 -12.21 -12.27 -12.68 1992 -13.96 -14.33 -16.84 -17.79 -15.96 -15.34 -12.05 -4.75 1.30 3.94 6.33 8.19 1993 9.63 10.81 11.36 12.60 13.56 6.55 0.38 -1.20 -1.14 -4.04 -5.76 -6.00 1994 -7.64 -9.84 -11.29 -14.71 -18.03 -23.09 -28.65 -27.02 -19.07 -10.29 -0.30 5.93 1995 8.38 8.01 8.79 11.79 14.92 15.62 11.74 9.53 6.98 3.43 -0.77 -4.57 1996 -5.79 -6.90 -9.92 -11.08 -14.88 -17.03 -23.93 -25.85 -26.02 -23.40 -18.08 -9.86 1997 -3.57 1.94 4.77 9.74 12.37 14.50 14.85 11.69 11.64 9.91 5.74 0.78 1998 -0.85 -2.96 -4.92 -7.82 -14.08 -18.57 -22.97 -24.70 -22.12 -18.77 -12.22 -3.96 1999 3.09 5.84 8.59 13.51 15.56 15.23 14.11 11.91 11.18 10.62 6.01 6.43 2000 4.85 4.20 5.51 3.98 -0.99 -7.83 -13.13 -15.31 -15.52 -14.04 -15.07 -14.56 2001 -15.69 -15.53 -15.99 -17.73 -20.99 -23.31 -24.45 -21.67 -14.29 -10.81 -3.88 1.48 2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50 2003 -1.39 -1.43 -3.30 -8.56 -13.63 -17.71 -22.99 -24.64 -22.51 -20.34 -17.86 -11.38 2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 8.74 7.29 8.00 4.35 2.45 2005 -0.69 -0.96 -0.33 -6.64 -15.09 -20.59 -24.20 -25.87 -27.80 -28.76 -29.55 -25.04 2006 -18.83 -11.24 -0.38 5.00 10.36 11.47 10.75 9.10 10.20 10.86 10.10 6.21 2007 2.61 2.43 1.24 -5.18 -14.06 -21.33 -24.92 -27.41 -28.13 -29.05 -27.61 -19.48 2008 -12.42 -4.70 2.19 6.43 11.53 13.45 13.27 11.63 11.60 11.05 9.13 10.46 2009 10.71 12.33 11.44 9.11 1.56 -5.47 -12.21 -14.45 -13.81 -11.69 -13.83 -15.57 2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97 2011 9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02 3.90 0.44 -0.49 -2.30 -3.05 -9.09 -16.25 2012 -16.07 -15.25 -16.74 -17.62 -22.04 -25.89 -27.82 -27.93 -26.60 -24.51 -18.95 -10.02 2013 -6.07 -1.23 2.85 8.39 12.64 13.38 14.27 14.66 13.12 11.69 12.45 12.55 2014 13.13 12.68 11.72 7.15 -2.81 -13.98 -19.29 -21.64 -23.24 -23.86 -23.65 -25.38 2015 -26.70 -28.62 -28.15 -24.38 -12.33 2.18 7.45 10.97 12.07 13.38 12.79 11.39 2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48 12.83 14.16 15.09 2017 14.92 14.78 14.35 13.88 8.01 -3.18 -10.48 -14.42 -15.28 -16.79 -17.20 -18.12 2018 -19.02 -19.37 -19.77 -21.41 -24.23 -28.45 -29.10 -20.41 -9.91 -2.79 3.36 8.05 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 -999.00 -999.0 QBO Calculated at NOAA/ESRL PSD 30mb zonal wind at the equator, zonal average For info https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/ units=ms-1

I talked about this on thie ENSO thread.The strongest+IOD YEARS 1994,1997,2006 the ENSO always went into a Nina the next summer,During 1995,1998,2007 the EPO was either falling or rising one way or another -ve,seems like we are headed with other teleconnection signatures we should be headed towards a LaNina next winter EPO 1994 -7.64 -9.84 -11.29 -14.71 -18.03 -23.09 -28.65 -27.02 -19.07 -10.29 -0.30 5.93 1995 8.38 8.01 8.79 11.79 14.92 15.62 11.74 9.53 6.98 3.43 -0.77 -4.57 1996 -5.79 -6.90 -9.92 -11.08 -14.88 -17.03 -23.93 -25.85 -26.02 -23.40 -18.08 -9.86 1997 -3.57 1.94 4.77 9.74 12.37 14.50 14.85 11.69 11.64 9.91 5.74 0.78 1998 -0.85 -2.96 -4.92 -7.82 -14.08 -18.57 -22.97 -24.70 -22.12 -18.77 -12.22 -3.96 1999 3.09 5.84 8.59 13.51 15.56 15.23 14.11 11.91 11.18 10.62 6.01 6.43 2000 4.85 4.20 5.51 3.98 -0.99 -7.83 -13.13 -15.31 -15.52 -14.04 -15.07 -14.56 2001 -15.69 -15.53 -15.99 -17.73 -20.99 -23.31 -24.45 -21.67 -14.29 -10.81 -3.88 1.48 2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50 2003 -1.39 -1.43 -3.30 -8.56 -13.63 -17.71 -22.99 -24.64 -22.51 -20.34 -17.86 -11.38 2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 8.74 7.29 8.00 4.35 2.45 2005 -0.69 -0.96 -0.33 -6.64 -15.09 -20.59 -24.20 -25.87 -27.80 -28.76 -29.55 -25.04 2006 -18.83 -11.24 -0.38 5.00 10.36 11.47 10.75 9.10 10.20 10.86 10.10 6.21 2007 2.61 2.43 1.24 -5.18 -14.06 -21.33 -24.92 -27.41 -28.13 -29.05 -27.61 -19.48 2008 -12.42 -4.70 2.19 6.43 11.53 13.45 13.27 11.63 11.60 11.05 9.13 10.46 2009 10.71 12.33 11.44 9.11 1.56 -5.47 -12.21 -14.45 -13.81 -11.69 -13.83 -15.57 2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97 2011 9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02 3.90 0.44 -0.49 -2.30 -3.05 -9.09 -16.25 2012 -16.07 -15.25 -16.74 -17.62 -22.04 -25.89 -27.82 -27.93 -26.60 -24.51 -18.95 -10.02 2013 -6.07 -1.23 2.85 8.39 12.64 13.38 14.27 14.66 13.12 11.69 12.45 12.55 2014 13.13 12.68 11.72 7.15 -2.81 -13.98 -19.29 -21.64 -23.24 -23.86 -23.65 -25.38 2015 -26.70 -28.62 -28.15 -24.38 -12.33 2.18 7.45 10.97 12.07 13.38 12.79 11.39 2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48 12.83 14.16 15.09 2017 14.92 14.78 14.35 13.88 8.01 -3.18 -10.48 -14.42 -15.28 -16.79 -17.20 -18.12 2018 -19.02 -19.37 -19.77 -21.41 -24.23 -28.45 -29.10 -20.41 -9.91 -2.79 3.36 8.05 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 -999.00 -999.0

Right now with the QBO ssemingly next winter might be really good if teleconnections work out.Seems like a good chance we could be headed into a more LaNina pattern and low sunspots like this winter should be on the low side.I'm not punting this winter but just pointing this out.But when the QBO flip it relative stays flipped for around 18 months

Should strenghten it some.EPS is showing the SPV into the Baffin Bay long range

Least right now we have a chance of snow in the long range.Trough going through East Asia tomorrow would bring a trough in the east into the first of the year.Have to see how it plays out if it's to be believed.Euro shows a shortwave around the trough axis

No,that just reverses the QBO early,it will take time to have anything sig