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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Least most of us might have a chance of snow next weekend,nothing much for Memphis tho :(.It might feel like winter tho..lol ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 00Z DEC30 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 30-DEC 64.7 60.3 15012 100 MON 06Z 30-DEC 65.3 59.0 57.8 56.2 26012 100 MON 12Z 30-DEC 57.9 46.9 46.7 41.4 25006 0.01 0.00 37 MON 18Z 30-DEC 50.8 45.6 51.0 32.0 25008 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 31-DEC 52.2 44.6 44.4 31.4 24006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 31-DEC 44.4 39.4 39.3 29.7 25006 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 12Z 31-DEC 39.3 35.8 35.8 27.7 26006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 31-DEC 45.6 35.4 45.8 27.5 27007 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 01-JAN 47.7 40.5 40.3 29.4 25006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 01-JAN 40.3 35.9 35.8 28.2 27005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 01-JAN 35.8 32.1 32.0 25.8 26004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 18Z 01-JAN 46.8 31.4 47.0 26.3 27004 0.00 0.00 87 THU 00Z 02-JAN 49.4 42.7 42.6 30.6 20004 0.00 0.00 98 THU 06Z 02-JAN 42.6 39.8 40.2 31.2 18005 0.00 0.00 100 THU 12Z 02-JAN 42.4 39.7 42.3 31.6 17006 0.01 0.00 100 THU 18Z 02-JAN 43.9 40.2 43.9 43.7 14006 0.25 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 03-JAN 44.7 43.5 44.3 44.0 16007 1.04 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 03-JAN 50.5 44.3 49.8 49.1 19005 0.25 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 03-JAN 52.4 48.8 52.4 52.3 18006 0.22 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 03-JAN 55.5 52.1 55.5 52.6 19007 0.06 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 04-JAN 56.9 54.3 54.2 50.0 21008 0.01 0.00 40 SAT 06Z 04-JAN 54.2 44.9 44.7 39.1 26007 0.02 0.00 70 SAT 12Z 04-JAN 44.9 40.0 39.9 31.7 24006 0.00 0.00 35 SAT 18Z 04-JAN 42.5 38.3 41.2 26.7 26014 0.08 0.04 57 SUN 00Z 05-JAN 41.4 35.1 35.0 19.7 28009 0.01 0.01 35 SUN 06Z 05-JAN 35.0 31.6 31.5 21.5 27006 0.00 0.00 4 SUN 12Z 05-JAN 31.5 27.5 27.5 21.1 24004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 05-JAN 43.8 27.3 44.1 23.5 24007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 06-JAN 47.9 40.2 40.1 26.7 21006 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 06-JAN 40.1 35.0 34.9 27.8 21004 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 06-JAN 35.1 32.4 32.4 27.5 21003 0.00 0.00 0 MON 18Z 06-JAN 51.5 32.0 51.8 35.0 23004 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 07-JAN 55.0 48.9 48.8 38.9 30005 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 07-JAN 48.8 41.0 40.9 26.3 01006 0.00 0.00 96 TUE 12Z 07-JAN 40.9 30.2 30.0 17.3 36008 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 07-JAN 38.5 28.1 38.8 13.8 35006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 08-JAN 40.8 32.9 32.7 17.7 31006 0.00 0.00 1 WED 06Z 08-JAN 32.7 30.5 31.7 20.9 30006 0.00 0.00 97 WED 12Z 08-JAN 31.7 26.2 26.1 18.0 31008 0.00 0.00 53 WED 18Z 08-JAN 27.7 24.7 27.8 10.6 31009 0.00 0.00 99 THU 00Z 09-JAN 27.8 24.1 24.0 6.4 32008 0.00 0.00 89
  2. jaxjagman
    We really are not going to get any help with the PV it seems.When you have these strong +IOD events you never have a SSWE,1994,1997,2006,only in 2006 which formed a weak ElNino into winter was the only year to have at least a SSW and the ONI was similar to this year.All three of those years were follwed by an LaNina into next winter.I was just looking at Berlin and the PV looks almost stacked from 10hpa to 100hpa,10 days out around the pole
  3. jaxjagman
    But unless the MJO loses amptitude,you'll never be right with what you show
  4. jaxjagman
    If you are right this would give more credence to the Euro being more right with the MJO.I put the closest starting point towards the end of your analogs and this is where the MJO was 11-12at the starting point,definite if you are right this would be into the cold phases later on
  5. jaxjagman
    Right,the CFS and Euro has been consistent with the signal.The Euro wants to get the signal strong into the Maritime.CFS looks quite different and the GEFS today is looking less Euro as it wants to progress the signal faster into the WP.If the Euro is right you and stays amped up you might give more prudence to the map Raindance shows
  6. jaxjagman
    Everyday we see what coud change,at least .The models flip and say,"fooled you again" ...lol/:(
  7. jaxjagman
    I bet Nolensville Rd past downtown Nolensville is blocked off.Mill creeek can do this
  8. jaxjagman
    Our back yard is under water,really rare because the creek behind our house rarely flows over
  9. jaxjagman
    We live by Concord road just off Concord Pass
  10. jaxjagman
    Ha...yeah i'm with you we've been flooding here,they just put us in a warning Flood Warning National Weather Service Nashville TN 604 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 ...The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a flood warning for the following rivers in middle Tennessee... Mill Creek Near Nolensville affecting Davidson County . Heavy rain over the last few hours has caused rapid rises along Mill Creek at Nolensville. The creek has reached flood stage. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid flooded areas along the river...And move personal belongings to higher ground. Never drive through flooded roads as the depth of water may be too great to pass...Even in trucks or sport utility vehicles. If you come across a flooded road...Turn around don`t drown. Stay tuned to noaa weather radio or other local media for further information from the National Weather Service. && TNC037-301204- /O.NEW.KOHX.FL.W.0045.191230T0004Z-000000T0000Z/ /NLVT1.1.ER.191229T2327Z.191229T2330Z.000000T0000Z.UU/ 604 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a * Flood Warning for The Mill Creek Near Nolensville * From this evening until further notice. * At 05PM Sunday the stage was...13.1 feet * Flood stage is 13.0 feet. * At 16.0 feet...Further flooding of the athletic fields at Lighthouse Christian School, property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd, and property in the Concord Village shopping center is occurring. Water approaches properties along Bluff Rd and Nolensville Pike south of Concord Rd. * At 15.0 feet...Culbertson Rd east of Nolensville Pike and Bluff Rd west of Nolensville Pike are flooded and impassable. Water begins to flood property in the Concord Village shopping center at Concord Rd and Nolensville Pike, and water approaches low lying areas near A.Z. Kelley Elementary School. * At 14.0 feet...Culbertson Rd and Bluff Rd near Nolensville Pike at the Chandler Harris bridge are flooded. Water begins to flood the athletic fields at Lighthouse Christian School and property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd. * At 13.0 feet...Water begins to flood low lying areas along the creek, including portions of Culbertson Rd east of Nolensville Pike and walking trails near the Honey Brook subdivision. Water also approaches Bluff Road west of Nolensville Pike. * At 12.0 feet...Water begins to inundate low lying areas along the creek, including property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd, and the athletic fields near Lighthouse Christian School. Water may also approach low lying areas near the Chandler Harris bridge on Nolensville Pike, including portions of Culbertson Rd. * At 11.0 feet...Water begins to inundate low lying areas along the creek.
  11. jaxjagman
    Finally put us in a flood advisory,lots of our creeks are running over,some good rains today Flood Advisory National Weather Service Nashville TN 506 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 TNC037-147-165-187-189-300100- /O.NEW.KOHX.FA.Y.0159.191229T2306Z-191230T0100Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Davidson TN-Sumner TN-Williamson TN-Wilson TN-Robertson TN- 506 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Flood Advisory for... Davidson County in Middle Tennessee... Southern Sumner County in Middle Tennessee... North central Williamson County in Middle Tennessee... Northwestern Wilson County in Middle Tennessee... Southeastern Robertson County in Middle Tennessee... * Until 700 PM CST. * At 505 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area. Area creeks are rising quickly and may flood some low areas. This includes Mill Creek, Richland Creek, Browns Creek, Seven Mile Creek, and Mansker Creek. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Gallatin, Nashville, Madison, Hendersonville, Brentwood, Mount Juliet, Goodlettsville, Millersville, Greenbrier, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Lakewood, Ridgetop, Hermitage, Rural Hill, Bellevue, Antioch, Belinda City and Old Hickory.
  12. jaxjagman
    Not really sure why this would be a -NAO,the SPV is sitting over Greenland basically
  13. jaxjagman
    iF have that -NAO look you should see lowering heights not rising,i call this run BS
  14. jaxjagman
    It dont work like this
  15. jaxjagman
    More less,you should not see those heights pump up in the east
  16. jaxjagman
    If that is a -NAO, you should not see that SER..IMHO,LEAST WHAT THE gefs SHOWS
  17. jaxjagman
  18. jaxjagman
    My thinking is where the SPV is going to be is what the models are doing
  19. jaxjagman
    For those that want to learn the EPO
  20. jaxjagman
    Here is the EPS H360
  21. jaxjagman
    No doubt,lets hope these good signs continue
  22. jaxjagman
    Almost looks like the EPS i posted above where the Rex block gets into the AK
  23. jaxjagman
    Who knows if it's right,but it is certainly better today.Look where the SPV is
  24. jaxjagman
    Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Mid South and central Gulf States vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening, with at least some potential for a few to become severe, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid/upper troughing likely will encompass much of the Rockies, Plains and Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday, with a fairly deep embedded occluding cyclone centered over the mid Missouri Valley region and a significant short wave impulse turning eastward into the base of the trough across the southern Plains. The short wave is forecast to remain progressive, and models suggest that it will pivot in negatively-tilted fashion while accelerating across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley region, around the southeastern periphery of the cyclone, as another significant short wave perturbation digs toward the southern California coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by considerable intensification of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields across much of the Mississippi Valley through the Appalachians, and may contribute to support for renewed cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. While the initial and developing secondary surface cyclones may encompass a broad area, with a potentially sizable warm sector, it still appears that considerable cloud cover, associated rain, and otherwise generally weak lapse rates will inhibit boundary layer destabilization, particularly from the Ohio River northward. Even east of the lower Mississippi Valley, where surface dew points are forecast to increase through the 60s, models continue to indicate that mixed-layer CAPE may maximize in the 250-500 J/kg range Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Mid South/central Gulf States... Severe weather potential for Sunday through Sunday night still appears largely conditioned on sufficient warm sector destabilization. East of the lower Mississippi Valley, forecast soundings indicate moist low-level profiles supportive of boundary-layer based instability, though with very limited CAPE due to weak lapse rates. It is still not certain that this environment will become supportive of appreciable severe weather potential, but it might marginally be enough given the forecast strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields through the day, and favorable large-scale forcing for ascent. South to southwesterly winds in the 850-500 mb layer, within the warm sector, are forecast to strengthen to 50-70+ kt through the day across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Vertical shear for boundary-layer based storms will be strong and conducive to organized severe convection, including potential for one or more evolving lines and discrete supercells. At least some model output suggests that a developing low-level confluence zone could become one focus for the initiation and intensification of storms, well ahead of the surface cold front, across Alabama into eastern Tennessee by late Sunday afternoon. However, confidence is greater that a corridor of forcing for ascent, along/just ahead of the eastward advancing front, will become the primary focus for any possible vigorous convective development. It appears that this may advance east of the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon, before continuing northeastward and eastward through the Tennessee Valley and at least northern portions of Mississippi/Alabama by Sunday evening. Potentially damaging surface gusts aided by downward momentum transport seems the most prominent/widespread possible severe hazard, but a couple of isolated tornadoes may not be out of the question. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None
  25. jaxjagman
    Like the Rex block the Euro shows towards the Aleutian Islands,just need it go into the AK,GOA.Least if it goes into the AK we might at least get help with the EPO
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