jaxjagman

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 PM EST Sun Feb 02 2020 Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 04 2020 - 12Z Wed Feb 05 2020 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... 21z update... No significant changes to the previously issued Marginal Risk. Any changes were based primarily on model trends in the placement of the axis of maximum rainfall. Model soundings showed that the best instability remains south of KY/TN, with the best MUCAPE values relegated to the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast (which is not unusual for a cool season system). However, model soundings did show some elevated instability across these areas, with MUCAPE values generally less than 100 J/KG. There is some spread on how models distribute the elevated instability, which has some effect on where the heaviest rainfall axis ultimately resides. Moisture is plentiful, with precipitable water values between two and three standard deviations above the mean transported into the upper TN Valley and lower OH Valley, where three hour flash flood guidance values are as low as 1.50 inches. While there is some model spread regarding the highest rainfall amounts, each of them placed the axis west of the lowest flash flood guidance. Based on this, the Marginal Risk was left in place. If there is better agreement concerning the placement of the heaviest rainfall (especially if it impacts areas with lower flash flood guidance values), a Slight Risk could be needed in later forecasts.

Congrats Jeff

Have to wait and see but if there is a more occuled system there would be a potential of strong thunderstorms that would be along the WF lifting N,seems most of the models are showing this set-up right now

Looking like the rossby wave train is coming through NA the next several days.We already have some flood threat upcoming,long range models are hinting at a occluded system just before Valentines day.We should be dealing with a flood potential especially the storm before Valentines day.,we'll have to wait and see how the details tho work out.Even tho we have a more -EPO the -PNA looks rather strong right now

Still would like to know why San Diego St is ranked so high and they have played nothing but chump teams,they might be one of the first teams if they get a #1 bracket to get knocked off by a 16 seed..lol

Ha..it usually updates to the date stamp

Tropical hasnt updated,can you post the ENSO into the ENSO thread into summer,?It's been showing a LaNina,just curious to see if it still shows it,suspect it will,thanks

Subsurface is almost cool basin wide,no real sign of any sig WWB upcoming tho the CFS does show right now a KW passing east of the IDL which should warm up region 3 past the mid month,if its right

Your lawn looks nice

The MJO looks basically stuck into the Maritime upcoming,.i'm starting to wonder if it can't get even more crappier down the road.Region 3 of the ENSO is cool right now but by the looks there could be a KW upcoming towards the middle of the month which would/could upwell the warmer subsurface to the surface,sure looks possible if the KW is right

The next work week looks sad if you want winter in the Mid Valley,temps could exceed around 15F+ AN. by the Euro and possibly around 3" of rain,possibly more in some locations depending on instability ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-FEB 3.8 -2.1 -2 43 -9 -8 SAT 18Z 01-FEB 5.5 -4.1 -3 -13 -10 -8 SUN 00Z 02-FEB 4.5 -4.6 -3 -38 -6 -3 SUN 06Z 02-FEB 0.7 0.5 -3 8 1 3 SUN 12Z 02-FEB 0.5 5.0 -5 5 6 10 SUN 18Z 02-FEB 12.6 10.5 -7 -20 10 15 MON 00Z 03-FEB 8.7 12.7 -7 -28 12 17 MON 06Z 03-FEB 6.1 14.6 -6 -30 13 19 MON 12Z 03-FEB 5.2 12.7 -6 -31 13 18 MON 18Z 03-FEB 13.2 11.8 -7 -20 12 18 TUE 00Z 04-FEB 11.7 11.5 -9 25 12 19 TUE 06Z 04-FEB 10.1 8.1 -7 50 11 17 TUE 12Z 04-FEB 9.8 7.7 -7 56 10 15 TUE 18Z 04-FEB 11.6 8.1 -7 51 10 15 WED 00Z 05-FEB 11.9 8.1 -8 1098 50 39.54 9 15 WED 06Z 05-FEB 12.2 9.6 -10 1097 43 39.51 8 16 WED 12Z 05-FEB 12.1 9.3 -10 1098 48 39.69 8 16 WED 18Z 05-FEB 13.2 10.3 -13 1097 43 39.64 6 17 THU 00Z 06-FEB 13.9 10.8 -19 36 4 19 THU 06Z 06-FEB 13.0 10.8 -21 35 1 18 THU 12Z 06-FEB 6.1 8.8 -19 -17 -3 13 THU 18Z 06-FEB 4.1 3.8 -19 53 -9 7 FRI 00Z 07-FEB 3.7 -1.7 -21 -11 -16 0 FRI 06Z 07-FEB -0.1 -8.1 -17 12 -26 -12 FRI 12Z 07-FEB -1.6 -10.7 -14 -27 -28 -17 FRI 18Z 07-FEB 1.8 -9.0 -10 5 -25 -17 SAT 00Z 08-FEB 1.8 -2.6 -10 43 -16 -7 SAT 06Z 08-FEB 4.3 0.9 -7 44 -10 -4 SAT 12Z 08-FEB 4.2 0.2 -5 46 -7 -3

Looks like a pretty crappie look through the Feb,but the details they decribe look about accurate as there looks to be a more stationary Equatorial Rossby Wave around the IDL with Kelvin moving through the IO the next couple days that gets into or around the IDL mid month,past that the MJO signal gets murky Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 15 2020-Fri Feb 28 2020 A complicated perspective emerges when considering possible tropical drivers of the midlatitude circulation as of late January. Over the past week the RMM index tracks the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) inside the unit circle with an accompanying uncharacteristic westward shift driven by equatorial Rossby wave activity, with a recent re-emergence over the West Pacific (Phase 6). Decomposition of canonical equatorial waves suggests this signal is tied to a Kelvin wave near the antimeridian, while dynamical model forecasts of the RMM show the MJO re-emerging over the Indian Ocean or Maritime Continent by the second week of February. At the lower frequencies, the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient remains robust across the Pacific in an east-west sense, with the latest Nino 4 SST anomalies of +0.9 degrees C and Nino 1+2 checking in at -0.2 degrees C. Persistent negative outgoing longwave radiation anomalies have been observed near and just west of the Date Line since late November. Given this complex perspective, any possible MJO influence is downplayed as the envelope appears to be in flux at present with the Phase 6 signal being tied to Kelvin wave activity that typically fails to couple with the extratropics. The convective pattern over the Pacific does project weakly onto a subseasonal El Nino-like response, despite SSTs increasing from east to west. As a result, the resultant Week 3 and 4 outlook primarily leverages dynamical model guidance with some deference to long-term trends and a slight adjustment toward canonical El Nino conditions. Dynamical model circulation guidance generally features a robust negative Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), both of which are consistent with the Week-2 forecast. These patterns translate into an amplified 500-hPa pattern featuring anomalous ridging south of the Aleutians, positively-tilted troughing over the West, and ridging extending from Mexico through New England. The outliers lacking this pattern come from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) model suite, in the way of the CCSM4, GEFS, and FIM models. These three models feature more ridging over the west and weakness or troughing in the East, in line with the typical MJO response to a Phase 6 event. Given the apparent Phase 6 signal being Kelvin-wave oriented, these models are discounted in the construction of the final outlook. Much to the chagrin of any snow lovers in the East, the continued NAO+ outlook and enhanced subtropical ridge over the Southeast favors a tilt toward above-normal temperatures, while the MJO re-emerging over the Maritime Continent would likely further lock in east coast warmth. Troughing across the West results in below-normal temperatures being favored, although there is some uncertainty regarding how far south and east any cold air mass would extend. A west-east dipole favoring above- and below-normal temperatures respectively is forecast across Alaska tied to the forecast ridge-trough pattern across the Pacific and western North America. El Nino influence across the Northern Tier tends to wash out long-term trends which are slightly below-normal, while decadal trends further support the increased chances for above-normal temperatures in the east, resulting in these probabilities being enhanced relative to the dynamical model guidance. The PNA- pattern supports a suppressed Pacific jet resulting in below-normal precipitation chances for areas adjacent to the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast. Dynamical models extend below-normal precipitation chances across the Southwest, further supported by decadal precipitation trends being negative for the region. There is some uncertainty with how far north and east this dry pattern would extend, further confounded by upslope precipitation potential along the High Plains tied to below-normal temperatures behind the anomalous trough. A mean frontal zone can be inferred at the trough-ridge interface, resulting in above-normal precipitation chances being elevated from the Lower Mississippi Valley through Ohio Valley. SST anomalies in the vicinity of Hawaii continue to range from +1 to +2 degrees C, supporting above-normal temperatures being favored across the islands. Model guidance supports a weak gradient in precipitation with wetter (drier) conditions favored across eastern (western) portions of the state, in line with observed conditions across the state in early 2020.

Middle Tennessee Weather History On January 31, 1951... Five inches of snow and ice fall, much of it during the evening, producing a water equivalent of 3.83". This is the greatest one-day precipitation event for January in Nashville's history. This was a heck of a storm in 1951 this time frame https://www.weather.gov/ohx/1951icestorm

That's a pretty sickening look the last couple decades

Looks like possibly a good system down the road" IF " the Bearing Sea rule works out.There is a system coming out of somewhere along the Kamchatka Peninsula that will move into the Aleutians/Bering Sea in about 3-days.So if this were to work out around the 13th of Feb we would see a trough coming back out of East Asia,these type of strong events have led into some extreme cold in the cold season and severe in the warm seasons

Not sure if it's going to do the trick,we was fooled earlier.Control don't show a split today

Definite have to look at the levels.You want this to fall at night or have some heavier QPF's which would cool the thermals down maybe GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z JAN27 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) MON 00Z 27-JAN 5.7 1.6 132 5833 23002 0.01 MON 06Z 27-JAN 5.1 1.5 132 5714 22005 0.01 0.01 MON 12Z 27-JAN 5.2 1.0 132 5228 24005 RA 0.13 0.01 MON 18Z 27-JAN 8.4 -0.2 133 4580 26006 RA 0.11 0.03 TUE 00Z 28-JAN 5.8 -1.3 132 4021 31003 0.08 0.01 TUE 06Z 28-JAN 3.3 -1.7 131 3005 35002 0.00 0.03 TUE 12Z 28-JAN 2.3 -1.6 130 2290 02002 0.00 0.03 TUE 18Z 28-JAN 6.9 -0.1 131 3750 32003 0.00 0.01 WED 00Z 29-JAN 3.6 -0.4 131 3768 05003 0.00 0.01 WED 06Z 29-JAN 2.5 -0.5 131 4117 05003 0.00 0.01 WED 12Z 29-JAN 1.7 -1.0 131 4147 05002 0.00 0.01 WED 18Z 29-JAN 8.3 0.5 132 5070 04004 0.00 0.01 THU 00Z 30-JAN 6.3 -0.6 132 4059 00003 RA 0.03 0.01 THU 06Z 30-JAN 4.9 -0.6 132 4243 01003 RA 0.04 0.01 THU 12Z 30-JAN 4.4 -2.1 131 3542 36003 0.02 0.01 THU 18Z 30-JAN 7.7 -1.8 131 3472 35002 0.00 0.01 FRI 00Z 31-JAN 6.5 -1.9 132 4082 23000 0.00 0.01 FRI 06Z 31-JAN 4.3 -1.4 132 5051 18001 0.00 0.01 FRI 12Z 31-JAN 4.5 -1.6 131 3868 12002 RA 0.00 0.01 FRI 18Z 31-JAN 7.3 -1.8 132 3869 17002 RA 0.02 0.01 SAT 00Z 01-FEB 5.1 -1.4 131 3971 24002 0.05 0.03 SAT 06Z 01-FEB 4.6 0.1 132 4819 09001 RA 0.02 0.03 SAT 12Z 01-FEB 4.7 -0.5 132 4377 18001 RA 0.06 0.03

Least we have a chance for some snow,but you have to get up early before it goes back to liquid to see it by the NAM

I wouldnt trust the soundings like John mnetioned,they are way to warm with the 850mb,the problem is the 925MB,levels with a warm nose with winds S/SW

Should be about 2500 ft

there iis a warm nose into the lower levels,you might be able to over come this with your elevation,for us you want to see this happen in the evening

Weather winter song for us in the Valley when we see a chance of snow..lol

Not sure i worded it right,It doesn't mean you can't get cold.I was talking about the jet extension in East Asia.This will cut off the active pattern we've been seeing because troughs will be more or less up north and we will possibly be dealing with some sort of SER.It's really a crappish look IMO