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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    If we don't get help somewhere this pattern we are in is fixing to suck IMHO.When the jet retracts back into East Asia this is going to build back the ridge into East Asia and keep troughs from going through,so our active pattern won't be so active,Basically it would look just like the GEFS is showing in the long range
  2. jaxjagman
    Thanks,but you should be here anyways,this is your home..lol
  3. jaxjagman
    If the pattern would teleconnect right,we'd have a potential bowling ball coming though the Valley,but that's a big "if"
  4. jaxjagman
    Still looks like a potential strong storm into the first of the month.You have a Equatorial Rossby Wave running in with a kelvin Wave.
  5. jaxjagman
    Sure looks like it 10mb-100mb,but like always it's the long range
  6. jaxjagman
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  8. jaxjagman
  9. jaxjagman
    More poleward today
  10. jaxjagman
    I use the CPC for the MJO,it usually updates our time just after 8 or some where in that line in the morning,Euro is later on tho https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
  11. jaxjagman
    Maybe money or rights?Not sure why he'd ommit it.It's a great tool and easy to decipher oceanic waves
  12. jaxjagman
    Just a note you can still get tropical monitoring on NCICS. Ventrice took it off his site for some reason. https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/
  13. jaxjagman
    giphy is the same way,i thought you was using tiny
  14. jaxjagman
    Thought about your pics just now and tinypics are what they are tinypics,i have to enlarge my pics to see them,its no big deal
  15. jaxjagman
    Could be cache?
  16. jaxjagman
    I use google chrome awesome pic,but i can understand how tinypic works
  17. jaxjagman
    Similar pattern it would turn cold with the AK warming by the weeklies,can you make your screen bigger when you post with tinypic?It could make the clarity better?
  18. jaxjagman
    This is the strongest +IOD on record this year since 1982 per SINTEX.In Feb the of 2007 the IOD was still reading + but this is typical of strong IOD events.Every year since 1982 not counting this year there has always been a moderate to strong LaNina the following ,.1995,1997,2007 Unlike the low solar years like this year these IOD events have happened into the mid decades which makes this seem rather unusual to an extent Even with the low solar there has never been a SSW IN 1994-1995 AND 1997-1998.This could have some merit because of a stronger ENSO compared to 2006-2007. In 2006-2007 The ENSO was a border line weak-moderate ElNino winter.But this was the only winter season to actually have a SSW into Feb.It got real cold though in Feb of 2007,there is also signs of a SSW upcoming.Who know at this point,but something to keep an eye on.. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/200702
  19. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Surface has cooled some since the last update in 3.Towards the end of the month into the first of next it looks possibly another KW will get to 3 again,seems possible just as well the MJO could get into 8 unlike what the RMM'S are showing today killing it off in 7.But either way the signal looks weak
  20. jaxjagman
  21. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Starting to think you were on to something back into early Dec,Seems possible the cold pool waters will get sfifted eastwards thats into 3.The subsurface is cooling west of the IDL,plus we have an active CCKW starting to get past the IDL which should help upwell the warmer subsurface east of it
  22. jaxjagman
    Looks like a active CCKW is passing east of the IDL.The subsurface is warm as well.3.4 ,3 AND 1.2.Seemingly the STJ is going to get active towards the end of the month into the first of next.Seems like the up and downs of the SOI we could be looking at a decent system around this time .need teleconnections to work out for once tho Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 19 Jan 2020 1012.31 1007.65 0.24 -5.28 -6.36 18 Jan 2020 1010.58 1007.80 -8.62 -5.57 -6.28 17 Jan 2020 1009.03 1007.95 -16.62 -5.51 -6.06 16 Jan 2020 1009.70 1007.85 -13.00 -5.22 -5.76 15 Jan 2020 1009.84 1007.70 -11.63 -5.24 -5.59 14 Jan 2020 1009.50 1007.15 -10.64 -5.35 -5.43 13 Jan 2020 1009.89 1005.85 -2.68 -5.49 -5.34 12 Jan 2020 1009.84 1005.45 -1.03 -5.78 -5.46
  23. jaxjagman
    This sucks For folks using my Albany webpage for tropical meteorology monitoring, I've been made aware that the rainfall dataset I've been using has been retired. I will be retiring any product with rainfall as a result. This will mean no more monsoon or rainrate products.
  24. jaxjagman
    Forgot what cold was like.least i got to see some some snow in Chicago yesterday.We pulled in about an hr before some heavy snow started yesterday afternoon,snowed about 4 inches but the warm nose kicked in and changed it over into rain while i was sleeping.Winds are westerly now so the flakes should end soon as the trough passes by.Cold night tho wind chills of around -15 when we check out early in he morning.Son wants to get home in time to watch the titans tomorrow so i told him we'd leave early..arrrggg
  25. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Subsurface has warmed somewhat,not much change with the surface,not much left of the cooler subsurface in the east as well.
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