jaxjagman

Starting to think you were on to something back into early Dec,Seems possible the cold pool waters will get sfifted eastwards thats into 3.The subsurface is cooling west of the IDL,plus we have an active CCKW starting to get past the IDL which should help upwell the warmer subsurface east of it

Looks like a active CCKW is passing east of the IDL.The subsurface is warm as well.3.4 ,3 AND 1.2.Seemingly the STJ is going to get active towards the end of the month into the first of next.Seems like the up and downs of the SOI we could be looking at a decent system around this time .need teleconnections to work out for once tho Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 19 Jan 2020 1012.31 1007.65 0.24 -5.28 -6.36 18 Jan 2020 1010.58 1007.80 -8.62 -5.57 -6.28 17 Jan 2020 1009.03 1007.95 -16.62 -5.51 -6.06 16 Jan 2020 1009.70 1007.85 -13.00 -5.22 -5.76 15 Jan 2020 1009.84 1007.70 -11.63 -5.24 -5.59 14 Jan 2020 1009.50 1007.15 -10.64 -5.35 -5.43 13 Jan 2020 1009.89 1005.85 -2.68 -5.49 -5.34 12 Jan 2020 1009.84 1005.45 -1.03 -5.78 -5.46

This sucks For folks using my Albany webpage for tropical meteorology monitoring, I've been made aware that the rainfall dataset I've been using has been retired. I will be retiring any product with rainfall as a result. This will mean no more monsoon or rainrate products.

Forgot what cold was like.least i got to see some some snow in Chicago yesterday.We pulled in about an hr before some heavy snow started yesterday afternoon,snowed about 4 inches but the warm nose kicked in and changed it over into rain while i was sleeping.Winds are westerly now so the flakes should end soon as the trough passes by.Cold night tho wind chills of around -15 when we check out early in he morning.Son wants to get home in time to watch the titans tomorrow so i told him we'd leave early..arrrggg

Subsurface has warmed somewhat,not much change with the surface,not much left of the cooler subsurface in the east as well.

Some of NOAA'a sites seem to be down

Its still weak and maybe to late,but a definite QBO switch upcoming

15-0..there i just jinxed us

Yeah i have no doubts there are more EF-4 and probably even more EF5 before hand we just dont know

I see what you are saying,but these were downgraded https://www.weather.gov/ohx/forgottenf5

But this was in Alabama,it's marked on that link i posted above from NOAA

There's only been one confirmed F-5 in Tn since 1950,that was the Lawrenceburg one,now if you want to consider parts of Northern Alabama as parts of the Valley,i'd agree with you.Its really insane tho if you look at North Alabama per capita how many F-5'S they had,that's just crazy https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html

You definite want to keep the GEFS look.Even tho it loses the -NAO it keeps the -EPO with a +PNA starting up still around the 19th-20th,least it's showing consistency

That's the GFS upcoming

I didnt word that right,it was after about 45 min to an hr the convection started after the squall passed.I went back and looked at the K-Index on all the models there shouldn't have beeen much of any post convection,its still lightning and thunder here

Convection of this system seemed to lag behind the main line.We've had thunder now for almost 45 min recently after that main squall passed,every model did a poor job with the mesoscales in our parts

Amazing how cold the GEFS is compared to the GFS,i'm wondering if the last upgrade of the GEFS helped the thermals with the hi-res upgrade?GEFS use to have a warm bias,not to oftern you see it that cold,especiallly here in the long range.But then again,i might have forgotten what cold is anymore..lol

Only been one EF-5,Lawrenceburg

Tornado on the ground in Arkansas,looks to be headed towards Lamar

Teleconnections are going to start flipping around the 19-20th,about every model shows this.We will seemingly start to get back to a +PNA/-EPO

When ever you see these systems coming out of East China,East China Sea, Yellow Sea and South Korea this is a juicy pattern for the Valley.If everything teleconnects correctly we can score with this pattern or we can get the boats ready.It's beeen awhile since we seen this look in these parts.Look for an active pattern anyways upcoming

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected across parts of the southeastern U.S. on Saturday. A risk for damaging wind gusts will include parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... An intense mid-level shortwave trough will rapidly move from the southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes late Saturday night. In the low levels, a surface low initially over east-central AR will develop northeast towards central IN by early evening and subsequently to the NY Adirondacks by Sunday morning. A warm front will advance northward into parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic states while a cold front sweeps east across the central Gulf Coast and OH Valley. ...TN/MS/LA/AL/GA/FL Panhandle... A squall line with a risk for severe gusts will be ongoing Saturday morning from near the OH/MS River confluence south-southwestward into coastal LA and the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Intense wind fields associated with a 100-kt 500mb jet and an 80-kt southerly LLJ will gradually shift east/northeastward during the period in association with the progression of the mid-level trough. Strong low-level mass response and associated advection processes will support the poleward transport of lower 60s degrees F dewpoints into middle TN and upper 60s farther south near I-20. Intense background flow fields and associated very large hodographs will support both the threat for severe gusts with bowing segments in the squall line and a conditional risk for tornadoes with any supercell managing to develop ahead of the squall line or with stronger mesovortices. The risk for significant severe gusts will likely focus with more pronounced bowing segments and longer-lived mesovortices. As the squall line advances across AL into GA late in the day, models are indicating less organization in the line as it encounters slightly weaker instability concurrent with the upper system becoming increasingly displaced from the GA/north FL vicinity. ...OH Valley... The northern periphery of the severe risk (damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado) will likely extend into the OH Valley associated with the northern part of the squall line expected to develop Friday night into Saturday morning. Intense wind fields coupled with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE would seemingly support a conditional risk for damaging gusts with a fragmented convective band as far north as OH to the southeast of the forecast surface low track. ...Carolinas north into VA/MD... The latest model guidance shows at least weak instability (MUCAPE ranging from 250 J/kg north to 1000 J/kg south) as flow strengthens during the evening into the overnight. CAM guidance suggests the possibility for a re-invigoration of storms east of the Appalachians as low-middle 60s surface dewpoints infiltrate the Carolina/VA Piedmont. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with this activity during the 04-12z period. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced Wind: 30% SIG - Enhanced Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Smith.. 01/10/2020

Short range models are showing alot more instability.Memphis got bumped up from a slight to moderate risk. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern Great Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening, spreading east into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The most dangerous corridor for strong tornadoes and intense damaging winds should be centered on northeast Texas through northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening through the overnight. ...South-Central States... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible later today through tonight, with the most dangerous portion being tonight into early Saturday morning with a potential derecho and embedded strong tornado risk. Primary changes this outlook are to expand the Moderate Risk east across the Lower MS Valley and increase tornado probabilities for the evening/overnight period. Vigorous shortwave trough near the AZ/NM border will shift east across the southern Great Plains through 12Z Saturday. A powerful 90+ kt jet at 500 mb is expected to emanate out of the base of the trough across east TX/OK. In response to this trough, the LLJ will increase throughout the period, more notably late in the period. Along the northwest periphery of low-level moisture advancement, multiple elevated supercells are expected to develop this morning across parts of western/northern OK into southern KS. A large hail risk is anticipated initially, but convection will have an opportunity to become surface based towards midday, though discrete cells should not be particularly common as a polar front sags into this region. Farther south, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across west TX where 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to approach 9 C/km. At the same time, strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific cold front/dryline by peak heating, and thunderstorms should easily develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Scattered supercells will evolve from east-central OK to north-central TX by 19-21Z, and farther south into south-central TX during the late afternoon. This activity will be strongly sheared and could produce very large hail early in the convective cycle. With time, multi-scale forcing will encourage consolidation into an extensive QLCS that should accelerate toward the Ark-La-Tex region during the evening. Damaging winds will likely be common along the QLCS with embedded mesovortex and supercell tornadoes. Guidance such as the 00Z HRW-NSSL and HRW-ARW, along with the 06Z NAM and 11Z HRRR suggest that pre-frontal convection should develop out ahead of the QLCS across the Sabine Valley towards 06Z. As this convection spreads northeast across northern LA towards the Ark-La-Miss, the strong tornado potential should increase amid strengthening 0-1 km SRH of 300+ m2/s2 and upper 60s surface dew points. A couple long-track tornadoes are possible given fast storm motions but convective mode should be messy. Consolidation with the accelerating upstream QLCS should eventually occur, sustaining potential for widespread damaging winds with embedded significant severe gusts and tornadoes as it spreads toward the Lower MS Valley through 12Z. ..Grams/Mosier.. 01/10/2020