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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Think these maps are so cool,even tho it's 15-days out the GFS shows a split. https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d
  2. jaxjagman
    Nice looking trough going through East Asia the next few days.Teles look like the NAO/AO is going to start climbing during this time so lots of uncertainty.Should potentiallly see a system effecting us MId Jan
  3. jaxjagman
    https://www.weather.gov/ohx/tntornadostats
  4. jaxjagman
    We've done really well with tornadoes recently.Since the NWS started collecting data in the 1800s, Middle Tennessee has been hit with 65 EF-3 tornadoes, 20 EF-4 tornadoes and one EF-5 tornado.
  5. jaxjagman
    2014 the strongest LOW on record during this time frame, into the Bering Sea and western Aleutians was in a Nino year and the trough axis was further west unlike this year we are in a NINA,other drivers should be noted just as well,just pointing out the ENSO. https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2020/12/31/bomb-cyclone-heading-toward-aleutian-islands-becomes-strongest-storm-ever-to-hit-alaska/
  6. jaxjagman
    Wasnt sure i was right,believe it was this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2014_Bering_Sea_cyclone#North_America
  7. jaxjagman
    Probably right
  8. jaxjagman
    Believe the strongest to date was in 2012?Don't quote me, i could be wrong.Believe it was on Halloween afterwards LeConte got 3 feet of snow
  9. jaxjagman
    In 2016 in a NINA the models kept showing a big storm in this area but we ended up with one of our best snow storms on record,no clue if it will happen again.Its so weird how the Valley works,someone is always going to be left out one way or another
  10. jaxjagman
    They havent had a good snow strorm in years
  11. jaxjagman
    Looks like a potential active period coming up maybe.The MJO tho being shown into the the COD into the IO there looks like some decent convection more into the MARITIME,also into Jan you can clearly see a KW possibly into ,BETWEEN JAN 4-6,tho this certainly could change.
  12. jaxjagman
    Control today almost looks like it wants to just blow up the SPV
  13. jaxjagman
    My storms never work out,i'm still looking at the storm towards the 2nd week of Jan.The pattern looks up and down.We should have a trough new years which looks imminent right now then a warm up then a system towards the end of week one into two.Right now it's just meh looking
  14. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    KW passed through recently has pulled some of the cool subsurface up to the surface in the east.
  15. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Euro is going hog wild with a strong NINO into summer
  16. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Sea Surface Temperature and ENSO Outlook for January 2021 ~ June 2021 Issued: 21 Dec 2020 The APCC ENSO outlook suggests “La Nina”. The prevailing ENSO phase is expected to be negative. Negative SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific are predicted during January-June 2021. Along with these spatial distributions, most of the dynamical coupled models predict negative Nino3.4 index which is expected to gradually increase from -1.3℃ to -0.4℃ through the whole forecast period. In summary, based on the running 3-month mean Nino3.4 index, the APCC ENSO outlook suggests La Nina conditions (~87% chance) with weak intensity are dominant during January-March 2021. The conditions are expected to gradually decrease and a 48% chance of neutral conditions is expected during April-June 2021 ENSO Alert Definition(Download) ENSO Alert status for January 2021 ~ June 2021(left) and history of monthly ENSO Alert(right). Time series of predicted monthly mean Nino3.4 index from individual models and the MME for January 2021 ~ June 2021(left). 3-month mean Nino3.4 index from individual models and the MME for January 2021 ~ March 2021(right). Probabilistic MME forecasts for the status and intensity based on 3-month mean Nino3.4 index for four overlapping 3-month mean periods(right) and first 3-month (January ~ March)(right).
  17. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I am kinda skeptic to what some of the seasonals show,only based on this chart.Some of the seasonals could be killing off NINA to fast.This chart shows in a way or another not counting 2019 there has always to an extent been some sort of resurgent NINA,based on the ONI.Each of the following two winters the ONI has never gone into a NINO but in fact stayed into more of a NINA pattern.Guess we will see down the road. JAMSTEC has a NINO into summer it seems.The subsurface lately has warmed in the east.Could be a possible KW in the east as well the next few days which could help upwell those cold waters
  18. jaxjagman
    Went positive tilt yesterday to more neutral tilt today,looks like that ridge it was showing yesterday is getting broke down sooner in the east,least that what it shows this afternoon
  19. jaxjagman
    Control has a +ve tilted trough with a ridge in the east and a ridge to the west around Christmas,potential big rain maker if it were to be anywhere right for the Valley
  20. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Sure looks like we are headed back to a potential +TNI into spring,if the EURO seasonals are anywhere right 2016 -1.630 -1.802 -1.946 -1.978 -1.763 -1.441 -0.968 -0.508 -0.101 0.324 0.690 1.097 2017 1.447 1.465 1.268 0.592 -0.267 -1.150 -1.575 -1.925 -1.847 -1.735 -1.548 -1.264 2018 -1.134 -1.260 -1.320 -1.650 -1.978 -2.118 -2.089 -2.159 -1.979 -1.890 -1.734 -1.700 2019 -1.725 -1.774 -1.892 -2.226 -2.535 -2.750 -3.045 -3.344 -3.286 -3.001 -2.857 -2.549 2020 -2.208 -2.029 -1.811 -1.756 -1.891 -1.855 -1.720 -1.586 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99 TNI
  21. jaxjagman
    Sounds like you are waiting on the apocalypse,sorry couldn't resist,just playing..lol
  22. jaxjagman
    Man look at the SSTS off the JAPAN coast,Sea of JAPAN and even Sea of OKHOTSK.Then you factor in the warmer than normal SST'S in he Gulf.Seems prime for a fun severe season,if you like severe.Of course this is only a model in Nov and we are talking April,but still.Troughs galore in the east with this.
  23. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    NMME is showing a strong NINA now into winter.APEC is the same its last update a couple weeks ago.We seem to be already at that point right now with the last ENSO update coming in at +1.7 for the week,per CPC. It does not look like the IOD(DMI) is going to disappoint the ENSO.Every year the DMI reaches around +1.4 there has been always been a moderate to strong LaNina into the the following winter,since 1980
  24. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Coldest the subsurface has been yet along with a standing wave west of the IDL and KW ongoing along the IDL,NINA looks pretty healthy .Its still cold in the east,not sure why some of these seasonal models want to kill it off so fast sure some of these models
  25. jaxjagman
    Today is fall back,we lose a hour and models are a hour early,wish they would not change this crap and leave time alone
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