jaxjagman

Kudos to the control,its been all over the upcoming long range pattern the last few days now, the Euro and GFS are showing this in the long range other than timing which should be expected.Looks to be a potent shortwave trough coming through that will dump more rain into the Valley with possibly some thunderstorms and would bring a CF down and possibly bring clippers with it for snow lovers,if it stays like its showing

National Weather Service Nashville TN 156 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 .DISCUSSION... The last few days have been an unexpected change to doing the forecast. Models have been really consistent regarding expected weather today, tomorrow and really into the middle of this week. As advertised, there are some light returns on radar this afternoon, none of which are amounting to much as it`s taking time for the atmosphere to saturate. Tonight, look for intensity and coverage to increase, especially after midnight and as we close in on commute time tomorrow morning. Forecast soundings maintain a tiny bit of instability with which to work and this should amount to a few rumbles of thunder tomorrow afternoon and early evening. I went ahead and removed thunder mentions after 9 pm Monday as an elevated cap develops after that. Tuesday still looks dry and if there`s any sway in the models, it`s in regards to Wednesday`s clipper system. Models have backed off a little on QPF, which is good news in relation to snowfall potential Wednesday evening. I still maintain the idea that Wednesday`s high temperature occurs in the morning and by 00Z Thursday, temperatures should be such that a change over to at least a rain/snow mix will be possible. I`ve got some light accumulations on the Plateau, but QPFs are exiting the mid-state pretty quick now. I`ll keep about a half inch over there by sunrise Thursday. The forecast through next weekend is still pretty benign, with another clipper possible Friday night that shouldn`t amount to much and though temperatures will react to the passage of these clippers, there aren`t any real extremes, cold or warm. What is interesting is both the GFS and Euro have a big system ramping up for the start of next week. This is way out in the forecast, but it`s worth mentioning as both portray a fairly dynamic system in the works. More at 11.

Maybe we are headed into a cycle with the IOD?I omitted the IOD into 1997 because this was such a viscous cycle based on the ONI but still has some merit,but seemingly after a strong IOD year we see a strong ElNino sign roughly three years after,probably means nothing,just pointing out a possibility 1993 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6

In moderate Ninas its a crap shoot for the Valley.Unless we get the right teleconnections -AO/+PNA we will see a more of the cold locked up above us,but what's new theses last winters,but Carver is right with his teleconnection discussion up above.To be honest all Ninas in avg,if its neutral,weak or moderate your chances of cold winters would weigh slightly warmer than colder and strong Ninas from the past would just make you think about the folllowing winter and forget the one you are in In typical strong IOD years, like this year the ENSO would seem to go more negative into winter.I.E 95,98,07.So the IOD would seemingly be a non-player with the MJO signal,like this year. In some of these years 95,98,07 looking at SSWE years,1995 didn't have one,.1998 had one Dec 16th while 2007 was Feb 23rd,so no help here.But SSWE's would result in the same out coming because it would depend on blocking and when it actually does occur.In the winter of 1995 was a cold winter without a SSWE. But the coldest winter,i'm just basing this on the strong IOD years was back into the 1995-96 winter without a SSWE 3) Winter 1995/96 The 1995/96 winter (DJF) season featured abnormally cold and snowy conditions in the northern plains, the eastern half of the Midwest, the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic states, and much of Canada. For the season as whole, temperatures averaged 3°-5oC below normal across western and central Canada, and 1°-2oC below normal across the northern tier of the United States and throughout the eastern seaboard from Florida to New England (see section 5, Fig. 59a ). In the East, these conditions contrasted with the abnormally warm temperatures and low snowfall totals (less than 25% of normal) observed during the 1994/95 winter. One prominent aspect of the 1995/96 winter season was a recurring pattern of enhanced northwesterly flow, which extended from northern Alaska and the Bering Sea to southeastern Canada and the north-central United States. This flow brought a series of major winter storms and severe winter outbreaks to the northern and eastern United States, resulting in record-breaking cold and snowfall totals in many regions. The season also featured considerable variability over large portions of the United States and Canada, with periods of extreme cold and snow followed by brief periods of warmth and rain. The most notable cold-air outbreak occurred during 29 January-6 February 1996, when temperatures averaged 11°-17oC below normal from the southern Canadian prairies southeastward through the northern and central plains and western Great Lakes and more than 6oC below normal throughout the rest of the United States with the exception of the Southwest. Temperatures dropped below -40oC throughout interior Canada during the period and below -46oC in some portions of central Canada. In the United States, all-time record low temperatures were set in four states (Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Rhode Island), and nearly 400 daily record lows were either tied or broken. Additionally, the cold temperatures were accompanied by strong winds that produced extreme wind chill temperatures below -50oC over much of Canada and large portions of the northern United States. The upper-level height and anomaly fields (Fig. 48a) reveal that the Arctic outbreak was associated with a highly amplified flow, featuring above-normal heights across the high latitudes of the central North Pacific and well below normal heights throughout central North America. Within this flow pattern, height contours originating in Alaska, eastern Siberia, and the Arctic Circle covered central and southern Canada and extended southeastward across the upper one-third of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. This pattern resulted in a sustained flow of pure Arctic air into central and eastern North America. This Arctic outbreak was immediately followed during 6-10 February by much milder air across central North America. During this 5-day period, temperatures reached 21oC in the plains states, more than a 50oC increase from the record-low readings observed the prior week. At Tulsa, Oklahoma, new February extreme minimum (-24oC) and maximum (32.2oC) records were set within 18 days of each other in association with the Arctic outbreak and subsequent warm-up. This warm-up was associated with a large-scale transition in the upper-level flow to below-normal heights and a deep trough over western Alaska and an amplified ridge over the intermountain region of North America (Fig. 48b). This pattern resulted in a strong and extensive flow of marine air from the central North Pacific into virtually all of North America. Overall, snowfall totals by the end of February averaged more than 150% of normal over the Dakotas and the upper Midwest and over the central and eastern United States from Indiana northeastward to southeastern Maine and southeastward to the Virginia coast (Fig. 49). Totals exceeded 200% of normal from southern Virginia northward to northern Massachusetts, and more than 300% of normal snowfall was recorded from central Maryland northward to southern New York and throughout the southern Appalachian Mountains region. Totals also averaged 200%-300% of normal over eastern North Dakota, northwestern Minnesota, and western South Dakota. Many locations established new all-time record seasonal snowfall totals during the 1995/96 cold season (Table 2). The largest total snowfall (573 cm) was observed at Sault Saint Marie, Michigan, which broke its previous highest total snowfall accumulation record of 454 cm. Most of the other records were established in the East, extending from Virginia in the south to Massachusetts in the Northeast. For many of these cities, the previous snowfall records were broken by mid-February. In some locations the previous record snowfall totals were exceeded by more than 60 cm during the winter of 1995/96. Perhaps the most notable snow event during the winter was the blizzard of 6-9 January 1996, which af fected the entire eastern United States. During this event, 50-120 cm of snow covered the eastern seaboard from the mid-Ohio valley eastward to eastern Virginia and northward to southern Massachusetts (Fig. 50). Totals exceeded 76 cm at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, establishing a new single-storm record, and reached 87.5 cm in west-central New Jersey and 120 cm in Pocahantas County, West Virginia. Additionally, most areas from Washington, D.C., northeastward to Providence, Rhode Island, reported one of the five biggest single-storm snowfall totals on record during the storm, which resulted in a shutdown of most airports on the East Coast from Virginia northward and made other modes of transportation virtually impossible. In contrast, during the following week the eastern United States experienced a dramatic warm-up and heavy rains (50-150 mm), resulting in a rapid snow melt and extensive runoff. These conditions produced flooding throughout the mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast during 19-24 January. During this period, all major rivers in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, New York, and Vermont crested 1.2 m-3.6 m above flood stage. In many areas, this was the highest recorded crest since the flooding associated with Hurricane Agnes in June 1972. Back to Table of Contents

Euro has a weak clipper the end of the work week next week,could get some snow in some parts of the Valley if its right.Problem is tho, here, is seemingly the trough axis with possibly a more NW flow,so the QPFS wouldnt be that fantastic,beggars cant be choosey tho right?

Not a great looking pattern upcoming,its still winter right now tho.Control looks about about like what the GFS looks like in the long range today You almost hit it,poor theta with some K-Index and some weak showalter could get some elevated thunder,still looks like a clippper like system behind it that will spit some flakes at us Wednesday,but it dont look as strong today

Better pic,of course this is still basically the long range and either one could be right and of course both could be wrong

The battle is going to be more is,is this more westerly or NW,both the Euro and GFS shows the clipper right now anyways,this is the Euro,meh

Maybe you guys in the east might get something,thats actually a pretty potent clipper being shown.The upslopes east of us here can do wonders at times in the east of us,i know what NE winds do here,over modeled..lol GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z FEB22 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SAT 00Z 22-FEB 0.9 -3.0 130 2246 03002 0.05 SAT 06Z 22-FEB -0.9 1.2 130 6940 04001 0.00 0.05 SAT 12Z 22-FEB -1.6 0.9 130 6329 06001 0.00 0.05 SAT 18Z 22-FEB 10.5 1.8 132 7193 29002 0.00 0.03 SUN 00Z 23-FEB 4.9 2.6 132 7478 20002 0.00 0.03 SUN 06Z 23-FEB 2.0 2.1 132 7228 18002 0.00 0.03 SUN 12Z 23-FEB 0.6 1.4 131 7772 19002 0.00 0.03 SUN 18Z 23-FEB 10.3 2.0 133 8738 24006 0.00 0.03 MON 00Z 24-FEB 7.8 1.9 133 8099 24006 0.00 0.02 MON 06Z 24-FEB 5.8 1.0 132 8329 22005 RA 0.03 0.02 MON 12Z 24-FEB 4.9 0.5 132 7493 20005 RA 0.10 0.03 MON 18Z 24-FEB 6.3 4.2 133 8461 15004 RA 0.14 0.04 TUE 00Z 25-FEB 7.3 6.3 134 8846 14005 0.16 0.03 TUE 06Z 25-FEB 8.2 7.4 135 8521 13004 RA 0.16 0.03 TUE 12Z 25-FEB 9.3 6.6 135 8288 20003 RA 0.04 0.03 TUE 18Z 25-FEB 16.1 5.4 136 10693 26008 RA 0.02 0.03 WED 00Z 26-FEB 11.5 5.6 135 9933 33003 0.00 0.01 WED 06Z 26-FEB 9.9 4.7 134 8690 35003 0.00 0.01 WED 12Z 26-FEB 8.7 3.7 134 6399 28002 RA 0.00 0.01 WED 18Z 26-FEB 11.2 2.1 134 5754 26006 0.03 0.01 THU 00Z 27-FEB 6.0 -1.9 132 3652 29003 RA 0.09 0.01 THU 06Z 27-FEB 4.5 -2.7 131 3120 27003 RA 0.08 0.01 THU 12Z 27-FEB 0.5 -8.0 129 1354 30007 SN 0.26 0.14 THU 18Z 27-FEB 0.9 -10.4 128 1208 28012 SN 0.08 0.19 FRI 00Z 28-FEB -2.5 -11.8 127 386 28008 0.01 0.18 FRI 06Z 28-FEB -5.1 -12.7 126 0 25006 0.00 0.18 FRI 12Z 28-FEB -5.7 -11.8 126 0 24006 0.00 0.18 FRI 18Z 28-FEB 1.8 -10.2 128 1479 27008 0.00 0.14 SAT 00Z 29-FEB -0.8 -9.6 128 983 27007 0.00 0.14

Yeah the Euro shows a clipper Mid week,we never do any good around here but when it hits the upslopes might be ok with you

All kinds other drivers to look at ,certainly you want a CE.Ninas just like Nino dont always work the same.The IOD, would seem to be right now as a starting point.In the strongest three-+IOD events, the ENSO has always crashed from "OND"the year of the strong IOD event years into the following tri-monthly year "OND" 1995 -2.0...."OND" OF 1994 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +1.0,the following year "OND" was -1,0 1998 -3.9 "OND" OF 1997 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +2.4 the following year "OND" was -1.5 2007 -2.4 "OND" OF 2006 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +0.9 the following year "OND" was -1.5 More study needs/ seems to be needed. The most negative the IOD has been since 1982 happened in 2016 coming off the strongest Nino that ever developed into winter of 2015 that went into a LaNina in winter of 2016,this broke the snow dome here with some parts getting close to if not a foot of snow from one storm.. ENSO can be quite different.Just look at the maps 2010-2011, this was in a resurgent Nina time that collapsed briefly into the sping/summer 2011,But the winter of 2010 was cold but not so in the 2011 winter

Warmed up to 35,as soon as the ratios started to fall the snow melted away quickly,cant even tell it snowed any a couple hours ago

Least we got something,temps are slightly colder than modeled,we just hit 32 http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201153.htm

APEC Update

Finally updated

Yeah definite looks better than yesterday,even the Euro isnt as horrid as it was yesterday with the dry air

Wish they'd update the Pentad,no update in almost two weeks it seems like Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 17 February 2020 • Enhanced convection over the Western Pacific amplified over the past week, becoming the more dominant center of action in the tropics. Constructive interference from a Kelvin wave moving eastward out of the Indian Ocean aided in this strengthening. Westward propagating Rossby waves and tropical cyclone activity has led to a stall in the eastward propagation of the convective envelope. • Dynamical model guidance indicates that this enhanced convection is likely to decay over the next week, but possibly continue eastward propagation with the weakened signal. The ECMWF and GEFS guidance show differing solutions on the RMM index as we move into week-2; however, both signals are fairly unorganized, diminishing confidence in forecasts for any strong renewed signal for the MJO toward the end of the month. • Growing anomalous low-level westerly winds along the equator in the western Pacific is starting to show impacts on the upper-oceanic heat content anomalies. This could have further implications for the El Niño state if the downwelling continues, increasing the available warm water at depth across the basin.

My thinking if i'm right this 2nd system what the Euro is showing is coming in to fast towards the NW

Long range models shows a trough going through East Asia today and another few days later.long range models don't show much right now with the first system which should reach the Valley around the 24th but show the 2nd system as more dominant,not sure that's going to be right but this is what long range is showing

Even with what the Euro shows a 1047MBHP during this time into IOWA you'd expect some height falls but the raging jet just won't let it happen

700MB are quite juicy,it's when you get to the 850mb it's quite dry

Yeah i mentioned this last night in the winter thread with the through going through Korea,this is the time frame you are showing but we'll have to see how the synoptics work out upcoming

This is where your MJO signal is at right now around the dateline.Noticed the GEFS is showing the EPO flipping to - into the last week of Feb,this should happen as these KW'S pass east of Hawaii basically

The strong +AO in Feb of 1990 it had a neutral ONI like this year kinda speaking.This brought on some sig flooding down south of us and into the SE subforum,then into summer the flooding went into the OV.iF the MJO which we dont know right now gets back strong into 4 once again the chances would seemingly be we will have a chance to see once again see some sig flooding,this also has a chance to be an active severe season

That is a beast of a storm in the North Atlantic to fly recon to see how strong the the ocean winds are https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ This in turn should really cool down the NA Tripole.if this were into a transition Nina this would be signs of some potential severe outbreaks into the Plains into the Valley in the warm season