jaxjagman

Yeah keep seeing some strong inversion setting into the Valley soon by both the HRRR and RAP

Finally showing something

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Northern and central Mississippi * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1040 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Intense bowing line with a history of several tornadoes in northwest Louisiana will progress rapidly east-northeast this afternoon. Additional semi-discrete suprecells may develop ahead of the line as well across parts of northern and central Mississippi. Environment is supportive of several tornadoes, some of which will likely be strong in addition to potential widespread damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Monroe LA to 20 miles south of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Would not take much instability,but who knows if its gonna be right

Nice if its right

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHEAST AR...NORTHERN LA...MUCH OF MS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL AND FAR NORTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely today into tonight, with the greatest threat expected from Louisiana through much of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. Strong tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and large hail are all possible. ...Synopsis... An outbreak of severe storms is expected today across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeastern U.S. Intense storms capable of widespread damaging winds, large hail, and several strong tornadoes are possible with several rounds of storms from late morning into the overnight hours. ...ArkLaTex into the Southeast... Initially, convection is expected to be ongoing across east TX this morning, in association with a lead shortwave perturbation. Storm mode may be messy with this area of convection as it spreads east/northeast across northern LA/southern AR into northern MS and the TN Valley vicinity. However, strong warm advection will bring upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints as far north as I-20 by late morning/middday, as a 50+ kt southwesterly low level jet overspreads the lower MS Valley. As a result, any convection that is initially elevated above a modest EML should quickly become surface based. Additional convection is then expected to develop by early afternoon as a weak cap erodes across central and southern MS along a pre-frontal trough/confluence band. These storms will likely be more classic semi-discrete supercells, and spread eastward into AL by late afternoon, and northern GA during the evening. Large, curved hodographs and deep, rich boundary layer moisture in intense vertical shear will support long-lived supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes. Overnight, there is some potential for upscale growth into a LEWP/QLCS across eastern AL/GA into the FL Panhandle. Damaging wind and mesovortex tornadoes are possible with this convective mode as well. Further east, strong surface heating and increasing dewpoints will result in weak destabilization across the Carolinas in the vicinity of a weak surface trough. Upper forcing will remain weaker across this area, limiting storm coverage. However, a few cells could become intense, capable of a couple of tornadoes and severe wind/hail during the afternoon. ...Ozarks Vicinity to Lower OH Valley... Additional convection is expected to develop in association with the main mid/upper shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Plains through 00z, then northeastward across the OH Valley overnight. Storms are expected to develo across eastern OK during the afternoon and spread eastward into southern MO and AR. Some semi-discrete cells are possible initially, and will be capable of producing very large hail. However, low level shear will become veered and deep layer flow more parallel to a surface cold front, resulting in some upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. This could result in a corridor of intense, damaging winds from northern AR into western TN/KY during the evening/overnight hours. In addition to damaging wind potential, mesovortex tornadoes also will be possible with this activity. ...Mid-MS Valley into the Central Appalachians... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon across northern MO into southern IA in strong warm advection ahead of the surface cold front. Marginally severe hail and wind will accompany these storms. During the evening and overnight hours, a surface low will continue to deepen as it lift northeast toward the Great Lakes. Additional storms will spread across the IN/OH and into portions of the central Appalachians posing a threat for locally strong wind gusts and isolated hail with the strongest cells. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2020

Could be some super cells develop into the late afternoon into the early evening in the western valley.Seems to be showing a cap into the afternoon but after the cap breaks

Surprised they still trust the NAM National Weather Service Nashville TN 1028 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Made some minor tweaks to sky conditions and potential some light rain moving into southwestern portions of mid state approaching 12/06Z per regional radar and satellite imagery. Current temperatures trends in line with forecasted lows. Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids. 12/00Z NAM coming in but GFS is still 11/18Z. Had enough confidence in 11/12Z & 11/18Z model runs depiction/guidance and saw no reason it would radically change in the upcoming suite of 12/00Z model runs to do the following. With WPC placing late this afternoon mainly southern and eastern portions of mid state in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, issued a Flash Flood Watch for areas near and across these locations from noon Sunday through 7 AM CDT Monday for Cumberland Plateau Region earlier this evening. Two to three inches, with training convection resulting in localized possiblity of 4 to 6 inches, especially across southeastern portions of Cumberland Plateau Region where warm frontal passage might occur Sunday evening, is expected. Strong low level jet dynamics are expected to develop by the mid morning hours on Sunday and persist with approaching and even after surface frontal passage on Sunday Night. This due to pronounced upper level troughing moving across mid state region late Sunday night into morning hours on Monday. Surface winds will initially be orientated southeasterly by the mid morning hours on Sunday but will veer south to southwest to eventually west by late Sunday night. Sustained surface winds will generally 15 to 25 mph, but gusts to around 45 mph possible. Taking a quick look, 12/00Z NAM still holding trend of its previous model runs showing mid state more conducive to severe weather development on Sunday night.

If its to be believed the RAP would be rather impressive in the Western Valley with DP'S hitting the lower 70's after the inversion would break the storms would grow rather rapidly upscale

If the virus wasnt going on right now i'd go towards Yazoo,Ms,but i'm not leaving the state

Indices put together for a chance of a significant tornado or tornado

Spiked up from 60 to 75% in Alabama to the Tn border

With the passing MJO and Kelvin region 4 has cooled and and 3.4 and 3 might finally surpass 4 as the warmer regions upcoming,this is where your warmer subsurface is at right now and 4 continues to get cooler down below

Don't trust any model.I agree with you i thought the HRRR would show a little more like the NAM and RAP.The HRRR the last severe event for us a couple days ago, missed the inversion breaking sooner than later, this is one reason it wasn't as severe like it was showing but the RAP just to give it credit showed this on the CAMS,but it still wasn't picture perfect either tho.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears likely Sunday into Sunday night, with the greatest threat expected from Louisiana through much of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. Strong tornadoes, potentially widespread damaging winds, and large hail are all possible. ...Synopsis... The ejecting shortwave trough initially over the southern High Plains on Sunday morning is forecast to move quickly eastward to the lower MS Valley by early evening, and then accelerate northeastward toward the Ohio Valley late Sunday night into Monday morning, as it becomes absorbed within an amplifying longwave trough that will encompass nearly all the CONUS by 12Z Monday. In conjunction with the ejecting trough, a broad surface low centered over the central/southern Plains on Sunday morning will move eastward to the mid-MS Valley by 00Z Monday, and then move northeastward and rapidly intensify into an intense cyclone over the lower Great Lakes by 12Z Monday. A warm front will surge northward ahead of the low across the lower MS Valley and Southeast, while a strong cold front will move southward through much of the Plains in the wake of the departing cyclone. ...East TX northeastward through much of the Southeast and TN Valley... One or more clusters of deep convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Sunday morning somewhere over east TX and potentially into portions of the lower MS Valley. The intensity and areal extent of any such clusters remain uncertain, but ample shear and instability will favor a threat of hail and damaging wind with any organized convection at the start of the period. Some tornado threat will also be present Sunday morning with any semi-discrete storms that begin to interact with the richer low-level moisture in the vicinity of the warm front. As this convection spreads northeastward, intensification is possible into portions of the ArkLAMiss region, with an increasing tornado threat in late morning/early afternoon with any surface-based storms, given rapidly increasing low-level moisture and shear. North of the warm front, evolution into a QLCS will be possible, with a corresponding risk of damaging wind into portions of the TN Valley. Meanwhile, further south, moderate to locally strong instability is forecast to develop along/south of the warm frontal position, which will be modulated by the impact of outflow from any early convection described above. Midlevel flow will increase to 70-100 kt as a south-southwesterly low-level jet intensifies into the 40-60 kt range. These wind profiles combined with ample instability (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) will support the potential for intense supercells. Any surface-based initiation along and east of a pseudo-dryline moving into western LA by late afternoon could evolve into one or more long-tracked supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts. The extent of development within the warm sector remains somewhat uncertain, given the presence of a capping inversion and generally subtle foci for initiation. While the conditional risk of all severe hazards will be quite high if supercells develop, uncertainty remains regarding how convection will evolve from the morning into the afternoon. Any remnant outflow related to early convection will determine the northern extent of the higher-end tornado potential, and some guidance suggests the potential for elevated convection within a midlevel moist plume across the warm sector during the afternoon, which could either dampen the severe potential, or evolve into surface-based convection with a substantial severe threat. Given these factors, there is too much uncertainty to upgrade the ongoing outlook at this time. Evolution into more of QLCS is suggested by most guidance by Sunday evening, which would pose an increasing threat of widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes across much of AL into western/central GA through the overnight hours. Higher wind probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in this scenario grows. ...Central/southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau... While widespread convection to the southeast will likely limit transport of deeper Gulf moisture into the Plains/Ozarks, more modest moisture that was advected into the region on Saturday should remain in place ahead the advancing surface low and cold front Sunday afternoon. Steep lapse rates and cold midlevel temperatures associated with the primary shortwave will support moderate destabilization. Wind profiles will likely not favor classic supercells, with some backing of mid/upper-level flow expected, but effective shear will be supportive of organized structures. Large hail (potentially significant) will be the primary threat, with some wind potential if any upscale growth occurs. Wind profiles will not generally favor tornado potential, though robust updrafts interacting with locally enhanced vorticity near the surface cyclone could produce a tornado or two. ...TN Valley into the OH Valley -- Sunday night... Substantial uncertainty remains regarding the potential for destabilization from northern portions of the TN Valley into the OH Valley, due to the potential for widespread convection to the south of this area. However, rapidly strengthening wind fields in advance of the deepening cyclone will support the potential for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado risk by Sunday evening should even modest destabilization occur, as strong convection attempts to move in from the southwest in tandem with the deepening cyclone. ... Eastern Georgia into the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic... Substantial low-level moistening is expected over eastern GA into the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic through the period. There is a nonzero risk of organized convection along/north of the warm front during the day into the evening, which would pose some risk of locally damaging wind or perhaps a tornado, but confidence in this scenario is low at this time. A more likely scenario is for widespread upstream convection to evolve into multiple clusters or a QLCS and move into this region sometime early Monday morning. Intense wind profiles will support a risk of widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes, given sufficient instability. The magnitude and coverage of the severe threat in this region will be determined in part by how fast organized convection approaches from the west. If convection accelerates and arrives faster that current guidance would indicate, then there is less time for low-level moistening and destabilization, and the magnitude and northward-extent of the threat may be limited. If convection does not arrive until very late in the period, then a more substantial severe threat could evolve. If some of the slower guidance turns out to be accurate, then the primary severe threat in this region may not come until the D3/Monday period. Probabilities may need to be increased in this area once the details come into better focus.

That's close to Yazoo,MS,i dont know what it is about that town but they are a tornado magnet

Euro slightly east with the 18z run

SREF

Could see a scenario where modeling really doesn't start coming into line until around 18z tomorrow. This mainly due to differences in handling to phase timing and tilt so far. You'd think within 24 hrs they should be close enough to those differences get ironed out for a better consensus. Perhaps? By that point we'll all be focusing on 3km mesoscales anyway. Agree,the last shift of the Euro brought up the SBCapes in Mid Tn. and more into an overnight ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z APR10 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 3/6 3/6 500 1000 TMP DEW CAPE HR CVP NCP HGT 500 (C) (C) J/KG (IN) (IN) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 11-APR 5.1 -0.3 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 551 SAT 15Z 11-APR 12.6 -1.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 568 552 SAT 18Z 11-APR 17.6 -0.8 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 569 555 SAT 21Z 11-APR 18.7 1.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 569 557 SUN 00Z 12-APR 14.9 4.9 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 569 559 SUN 03Z 12-APR 13.0 3.7 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 570 559 SUN 06Z 12-APR 12.1 3.4 51 0.01 0.01 0.00 570 560 SUN 09Z 12-APR 12.9 4.0 1 0.01 0.01 0.00 570 560 SUN 12Z 12-APR 12.6 6.9 30 0.02 0.02 0.00 570 560 SUN 15Z 12-APR 12.7 10.7 0 0.06 0.03 0.03 571 561 SUN 18Z 12-APR 12.7 12.3 22 0.39 0.05 0.34 571 562 SUN 21Z 12-APR 14.6 14.4 263 0.21 0.07 0.14 569 566 MON 00Z 13-APR 17.1 16.8 148 0.55 0.33 0.21 568 568 MON 03Z 13-APR 19.1 18.4 130 0.45 0.08 0.37 566 571 MON 06Z 13-APR 18.8 18.2 521 1.01 0.20 0.81 562 565 MON 09Z 13-APR 15.9 13.5 3 0.01 0.00 0.00 559 558 MON 12Z 13-APR 12.7 9.7 31 0.01 0.00 0.00 564 557

The GFS the same time shows the LP around the Delta the NAM is further N than the Euro,they aren't playing along very nicely even in the short range

The Euro this afternoon continues to show a more westward trend.This afternoon shows the LP into the lower Mo/Valley with even a strong LLJ up to 75kts probably around Paducah

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 418 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2020 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... 2030z Update: Still looks like a good setup for excessive rainfall Sunday into Sunday night across northern MS/AL/GA into central and southern TN and the southern Appalachians. A strong mid level wave, favorable upper jet pattern, impressive low level moisture transport, and instability advecting northward...should set the stage for an active day of convection and heavy rainfall. Both PWs and IVT are forecast to be at or near record levels for mid April with this system. The system as a whole will remain progressive, which will cap the upper magnitude of rainfall potential...however still expecting a swath of rainfall greater than 3", with localized amounts of 4-6" a possibility. The best threat for these heavier rains will be near the northern gradient of the CAPE axis...where we will see the best overlap of lower and upper level forcing and enough instability for higher rainfall rates. Still some uncertainty on exactly where this sets up...but the model consensus is across the Moderate risk area. There is enough of a QPF and environmental ingredient signal to warrant an expansion of the Moderate risk westward over more of AL/MS and TN with this update. The Slight risk was also expanded to include more of the OH valley...as instability advecting ahead of the strong mid level vort should allow for convection making it this far north.

National Weather Service Nashville TN 220 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 .DISCUSSION... Another dry day across the mid state, with dewpoints dropping into the lower 20s and even upper teens. Winds have calmed down a little bit, and should continue to do so this afternoon. With clear skies and light winds overnight, temperatures should drop into the mid to upper 30s, and even areas on the Plateau along with low lying areas seeing temps around and just below freezing. Areas that get into the mid 30s will see some frost by sunrise, so have a freeze warning for the Plateau and a frost advisory for the rest of the area in effect overnight into Saturday morning. Another dry day will be in store Saturday before the next upper low moves in for Sunday. Some uncertainty on the track of the low still exists for Sunday, however, the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak will be in place for the southeast US Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Strong upper trough will move northeast from the southern Plains, bringing plenty of WAA and moisture into the region. Warm front will move through the mid state in the morning, with showers and thunderstorms at that time as well. Some may be strong to severe, but main focus remains on developing convection for the afternoon and evening. As we get into the afternoon, wind speeds aloft increase quite a bit, with the LLJ showing southerly winds around 60 knots and winds aloft around 100 knots. That additional strength in southerly flow near the surface will bring more low and mid level moisture, and PWAT values continue to trend upward with model runs, now exceeding 1.5 inches for the afternoon and evening across the mid state. These values are well above climatological max values, and with training of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, the potential for flash flooding looks to be increasing no matter which low track takes place. The severe threat on Sunday is also trending upward in addition to the flooding threat already in place, however, a shift in the track of the low will make a HUGE difference in regards to where severe weather occurs. As of right now, most of the higher instability stays off to the south, but Sunday afternoon and evening, models do have around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE over most of the southern zones. The NAM remains the most bullish model showing around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Wind shear is extremely strong, and has remained so over the past few runs, with 0-6km deep layer shear staying consistent around 70 to even 90 knots. 0-1km shear is also high thanks to the strong near surface winds and LLJ, with shear values around 40 to 50 knots. With shear values that strong, its no surprise that 0-1km and 0-3km helicity values exceed 600 m2/s2 with each model run from Sunday afternoon through around midnight Monday. This all suggests that we can have very fast moving, strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening Sunday, with the potential for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. Should the low track further north, and allow for additional instability to reach the mid state, the potential for a few long track, significant tornadoes will be possible as well. Be sure you stay up to date with the latest forecasts, and make a plan now to prepare for heavy rainfall/flooding as well as a potential for a significant severe weather outbreak. Should severe thunderstorms develop, with incredibly strong wind speeds through the atmosphere, storm motions will likely be over 60 mph, so you will need to be prepared to take shelter very quickly should warnings be issued. Some things that could inhibit the severe potential on Sunday would be a southerly track of the low, keeping even more instability to our south, and shifting our focus to a heavy rain/flooding event with a few strong to severe thunderstorms as opposed to a more widespread severe weather outbreak. Another factor that could limit severe potential is warm sector convection behind the morning warm front and before potential severe weather later in the afternoon and evening. Late morning/early afternoon convection may dilute the instability through cooling the low levels, and not allowing the atmosphere to reload additional instability with the strong southerly flow. Again, its important to stay updated on the latest forecast changes, and be prepared just in case for the potential of severe weather on Sunday.

NAM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 Not bad if you like severe 2P APR10 SFC SFC MU SFC BEST SFC 1000M 0 0 PWW CAPE CAPE LIX LIX CIN HEL 900 500 (IN) J/KG J/KG (C) (C) J/KG M2/S2 SHEAR SHEAR FRI 2P 10-APR 0.2 0 0 20 21 0 -6 00001 08046 FRI 8P 10-APR 0.3 0 0 16 16 0 -14 05002 09039 SAT 2A 11-APR 0.4 0 57 18 15 0 79 10010 17042 SAT 8A 11-APR 0.4 0 12 20 14 0 122 09011 15045 SAT 2P 11-APR 0.6 0 0 12 12 0 13 00003 09043 SAT 8P 11-APR 0.7 0 9 7 5 0 76 01016 06040 SUN 2A 12-APR 1.3 0 219 10 4 0 114 03021 08048 SUN 8A 12-APR 1.3 0 103 9 1 0 215 07022 10065 SUN 2P 12-APR 1.7 0 1068 6 -3 0 305 05036 05066 SUN 8P 12-APR 1.5 2165 2608 -7 -8 -13 388 02040 04086 MON 2A 13-APR 1.0 43 1102 3 -3 -104 231 04036 03055 MON 8A 13-APR 0.4 6 0 21 10 0 -46 02017 07061 MON 2P 13-APR 0.4 0 0 16 15 0 -107 02017 08066 MON 8P 13-APR 0.5 0 0 13 14 0 -49 01010 09067 TUE 2A 14-APR 0.5 0 0 16 16 0 -18 02009 12070

Yeah but with the virus on-going and the stay at home policy ,people living in mobile homes will be more vulnerable unless you lift the ban so they can seek shelter.Not a good situation to be in right now