jaxjagman

If you want to use short range models for free the best site to use is this https://weathermodels.com/ Click on the link at the bottom where it says try it for free,then click model,pain is the ass to navigate but its free Edit:Thats not the greatest tool in the shed,just noticed it dont update a day or two earlier

Probably low but that might depend on where they at?Winds look like they might be blowing from the N around 5kts at TYS April fools morn with temps in the mid to upper 30's,higher elevations should still see snow maybe

Fairly quiet looking pattern upcoming the next several days in our parts.Like Jeff mentioned in another thread ,we're getting into a -NAO,for a few days anyways,.The AAM is going in the wrong direction.The MJO is fixing to lose signals.To top all that off that EPS is hinting at an Upper Level Ridge building in the long range.After that seemingly around day 10 right now the ULR might weaken or get kicked out to the east.SIPS shows a more severe pattern could possibly be back during this time.Does not mean we cant get severe,it's spring,its not a great look right now for several days IMO

Subsurface is cooling fast other than the Humboldt doing its thing,the warmest subsurface are now east of the IDL

Not very exciting in our parts.The system seemed to slow down and acted more as an ANA front,hope all is well in Jonesboro tho

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 74 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 935 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Line of strong to severe thunderstorms over western Tennessee will progress east across middle Tennessee tonight with a risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles south southwest of Nashville TN to 40 miles northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline updat

Tornado Warning TNC069-075-113-290215- /O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0023.200329T0148Z-200329T0215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Memphis TN 848 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Hardeman County in western Tennessee... Southeastern Haywood County in western Tennessee... Southwestern Madison County in western Tennessee... * Until 915 PM CDT. * At 848 PM CDT, doppler radar indicated severe thunderstorms producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located over Hillville, or 13 miles south of Brownsville, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Jackson, Bemis, Hillville, Cloverport, Mercer, Medon, Neely, Pinson, Malesus, Parkburg, Huntersville, Cedar Chapel, Vildo, Hatchie, Westover, Madison Hall, Uptonville, Denmark and Leighton.

Mesoscale Discussion 0262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0825 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Areas affected...Northern MS...Northwest AL...Western/Middle TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 71... Valid 290125Z - 290300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 71 continues. SUMMARY...Squall line is organizing and shifting east across ww71. New tornado watch will likely be issued by 0230z. DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing appears to be aiding upward evolving squall line across the Mid-South this evening. Over the last few hours a slow maturation has been noted and its forward propagation is on the order of 35kt to the east. This speed/movement would place the leading edge of strongest convection near the eastern edge of ww71 around 03z and through much of Middle TN into northwestern AL by 06z. New tornado watch will likely be issued by 0230z.

Probably watch into the western Valley this area could possibly have some strong storms fixing to FIRE up running into some SBCAPES AROUND 2K,in the next hr or two

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MIDWEST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms posing a threat for tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail will continue this evening into the overnight from a portion of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into the Midwest region. ...Midwest region... The warm sector is in the process of being pinched off across northeast IA suggesting the tornado threat in this region should end by 02Z. However...additional storms are developing farther south across northwestern and west central IL and will move eastward into central and eastern IL where the 00Z RAOB from Lincoln indicated around 800 J/kg MLCAPE, large low-level hodographs and 80 kt effective bulk shear. This environment will continue to support organized storms incuding supercells capable of producing tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong this evening. ...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... A secondary branch of the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen tonight from middle TN into the OH Valley in association with a strong upper jet moving through the base of a progressive trough situated across the Midwest. This will contribute to modest low-level theta-e advection with MUCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg as well as large hodographs with 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km storm-relative helicity within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. The band of scattered storms developing along the warm conveyor belt from southwest IN into western TN and northwest MS will likely maintain embedded organized structures including supercells and bowing segments capable of tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail as they develop eastward into the overnight.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 71 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far eastern Arkansas Far southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Missouri Boothell Northwest Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 635 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Extensive clusters of thunderstorms will evolve east-northeast tonight. Tornado risk through mid-evening will be greatest across the Kentucky and Tennessee portions of the watch, with an increasing risk towards late evening across Mississippi. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north of Evansville IN to 25 miles south of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

Mesoscale Discussion 0255 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northern MS...Western TN/KY...Southeast MO/IL Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...70... Valid 282159Z - 282300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68, 70 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat will shift east of WWs 68/69 over the next few hours. New tornado watch may be warranted soon. DISCUSSION...Latest NAM guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen across the western TN Valley this evening as 500mb speed max increases in excess of 100kt from AR into western KY over the next 03-06hr. Earlier trends suggesting a QLCS might be evolving across AR now favor a mix of discrete supercells and clusters. This may be in part to expected strengthening wind fields. Over the next few hours, ongoing corridor of supercells over eastern portions of ww68 should approach, then spread east of the watch. This will necessitate a new tornado watch soon.

PDS on that cell once again

Looks like the cell headed towards Jonesboro has recycled

Probably maybe just as well keep an eye into the GOM in a few weeks for some early TG,those SST's are really warm

Yeah the monsoonal flow is changing as we head more into spring

Probably watch the models tonight and even in the morning.Some of the cams show some discrete cells after the cap breaks in the afternoon,We could possibly hit 85 tomorrow which would break our record.Nashville sure sounds concerned National Weather Service Nashville TN 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 .DISCUSSION... As a citizen of Middle TN, I hate writing these AFDs. However, as a met and a scientist, they`re the ones you wait for. Now look, tomorrow isn`t going to be an April 2011 kind of day, nor do I expect for us to have a repeat of March 3rd. However, tomorrow evening, despite the differences in the models warrants everyone in Middle TN, especially those along and west of I-65 (this includes but is not limited to the Metro area) to be very weather aware tomorrow evening. Let`s start with what`s going on now: A mix of sun of clouds and a warm breeze is making for a great day across Middle TN. Temperatures are running about 20 degrees above average which is a welcomed increase in temperatures for spring. The southerly winds will continue to blow overnight. Not gusty, but the warmth and persistent increase of low-level moisture will continue. I have 67 for a morning low tomorrow and while I don`t expect us to remain above 70, the record max low temperature for March 28th is 70 degrees set in 1907. Unexpected cloud cover in the morning would likely help us break that record, but as I said, unexpected. As we get into the afternoon hours tomorrow and the boundary layer continues to warm and low-level moisture increases, temperatures should be as warm or warmer than today. That means tomorrow`s high temperature will also be under assault. I have 83 in there and the record is only 85 set in 2012. If you`re a regular reader of the AFD, you see where we`re headed here... Throughout the day tomorrow, an intensifying low pressure system will continue to develop over the Plains. In the afternoon, those well north of us will be dealing with problems of their own, but as the front nears Middle TN tomorrow evening, we very well could have issues, too. I alluded to it earlier, forecast soundings aren`t in great agreement, but the only thing they aren`t in great agreement about is how bad it`ll be. As is normal, the NAM is the outlier in this situation. It`s a little slower, it has winds out of the south (which would increase the low-level helicity and in turn, the discrete supercell potential) as well as instability that is considerably higher than other models. Fingers crossed that the GFS and Euro are closer to the actual solution. That wouldn`t absolve us from a severe weather threat, just the overall severity of it. GFS soundings show surface winds that are veered compared to the NAM. This means more of a QLCS and a straight-line wind threat (but still NOT a zero tornado threat). All of that said, I`m leaning towards the GFS solution. The main surface low is well north of us and the overall system is very wrapped up, becoming occluded at the point when the the front starts to near Middle TN. We don`t TYPICALLY get discrete cell development in this scenario. A NAM solution would require the development of a secondary surface low closer to the mid- state and right now, the likelihood of that is low. So the main thing we`re going to want to monitor tomorrow afternoon and early evening: what are the surface winds doing? The more southerly they are, the better chance of discrete development (and a better tornado threat). More of a southwesterly component, we should be looking at the development of a line, less low-level helicity and a reduced chance of things getting out of hand -- but still a severe wind threat. Here`s the next problem: models continue to show this as another nocturnal event. That means it`s going to be after dark before the cap can break and develop occurs (no matter what kind). I`m looking at a 6 pm to midnight event, and 6 pm might be a touch early. This means today is the day to make sure you have multiple ways to get warnings. A properly programmed NOAA Weather Radio, your cell phone (make sure it`s turned on and up) and preferably one other way -- all something that will wake you up if you go under a warning and you`re sleeping. Storms/rain should be off the Plateau before sunrise and we`ll return to these fantastic dry conditions we`ve been experiencing the last couple of days. Our next shot at rain won`t be until Tuesday. Current trajectories keep Tuesday`s system from being severe for us, but will need to be monitored over the coming days. &&

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including the potential for hail/wind damage along with a few tornadoes, are expected over the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians vicinity. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians... Bands of elevated showers/thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning across the Ozarks into much of Tennessee and northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A low-amplitude shortwave trough/mid-level speed max over the south-central Plains and Ozarks early today will steadily progress eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley by early evening. In response to this feature, a weak surface low will shift into Arkansas by early afternoon as the frontal zone that is currently draped across the central Gulf States lifts north toward the Tennessee border. This surface low will then track along the wind shift into middle Tennessee by early evening. Diurnal heating will be maximized ahead of the surface low across Arkansas where low-level flow should veer and surface temperatures should reach convective temperatures by mid-afternoon. Surface-based supercells are expected to initially develop across eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee/northern Mississippi within the warm sector and near the warm front. This activity will develop within strong deep-layer shear, but low-level shear is not forecast to be particularly strong initially given the southwesterly surface winds. The surface-based nature of these storms suggests all hazards are possible, including a few tornadoes. Hail will be the primary risk north of the warm front. While exact later-day positioning of the warm front is a bit uncertain, there is concern that a somewhat more focused/heightened supercell and tornado potential could materialize across portions of Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama in vicinity of the surface triple point. Near the modestly deepening surface low/warm front, low-level shear/SRH will be maximized with an enlargement of hodographs expected toward sunset. Portions of Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama will be reevaluated later today for the possibility of a higher risk category (Enhanced).

Euro might be playing a April fools joke on yall in the east with a potent system cutting through around Birmingham that gives yall some wrap around snow

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, a tornado or two and hail will be possible in the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward into the Ozarks with a warm front extending eastward from the low into the Tennessee Valley. Thunderstorms associated with a marginal severe threat will be likely to the northeast of the surface low across southern Missouri during the morning. As the low moves eastward, low-level flow will strengthen across the Tennessee Valley. In response, low-level moisture will increase with surface dewpoints reaching the lower to mid 60s F from northern Mississippi into western Tennessee. Surface heating should enable MLCAPE to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range by afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms appear likely to develop across just ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This convection is forecast to move eastward across the Tennessee Valley during the afternoon reaching the southern Appalachians by early evening. Forecast soundings across the Tennessee Valley Tuesday afternoon show strong deep-layer shear profiles and steep low-level lapse rates. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be 65 to 75 kt range which should be favorable for supercells and short bowing line segments. A tornado threat, along with a potential for wind damage and hail will be possible with supercells. Short line segments should also be capable of producing wind damage. The severe threat is expected to become isolated as scattered thunderstorms move eastward into the southern Appalachians and southeastward into the central Gulf Coast States during the evening. ..Broyles.. 03/23/2020

Yes and should wait and see if/where any triple point sets up Tues afternoon,think the question will be how far the warm front lifts north

Euro starts to kick in the LL/Shear into the morning and afternoon Tuesday,more into the western and possibly the Middle Valley.,could get some supercells develop.NAM shows the TT'S 52-54 mid afternoon into Mid Valley but like always it could be over doing it but it did do well IMO when Nashville had its Tornado recently even at this range,still wouldnt trust it.Like BNA stated it should go into a QLCS Tuesday as it progress eastward with mesocyclones possibly embedded. Much as i like severe weather,i'm hoping this won't happen this time,anywhere ational Weather Service Nashville TN 216 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 .DISCUSSION... Showers are showing up on radar just off to the west of the TN River currently, and moving eastward. Rain will continue eastward through the afternoon and evening, and still expecting the heaviest rainfall after midnight for areas south of I-40. Around an inch to an inch and a half will be possible closer to the AL border as the upper trough moves through the OH River Valley tonight. Left in mention of thunderstorms in the southern zones where some instability will work its way into the area overnight. Showers should come to an end from west to east during the day, with some lingering showers holding on in the afternoon on the Plateau. Monday night early on looks to be dry as we will be between troughs, but the next stronger Plains trough will be moving eastward and start impacting the area Tuesday morning. Warm air will already be in place from the previous trough, but the next trough will bring a warm front through the area Tuesday morning after sunrise, allowing more warm moist air to spread over the region. Model soundings show a shallow low level inversion that should limit convection early on, but once the warm front passes through, the mid state will be uncapped in the warm sector for the rest of the morning and afternoon. The GFS/NAM have heavier showers and thunderstorms mainly along the I-40 corridor and northward Tuesday before noon, and enough instability is around for some strong to severe storms during that time. After the warm front passes, there may be a brief break before additional storms develop ahead of the cold front in the warm sector during the afternoon, and spread eastward. As the trough and its axis approach the mid state, both instability and shear increase, along with low level helicity. MLCAPE values around 500 to 1000 J/kg look likely across the area during the afternoon, with the NAM not surprisingly showing slightly higher values. Deep layer shear is consistent between the models, however, showing 60 to 70 knots from 0-6km. Low level shear and helicity increase mid afternoon through the early evening, with 0-3km helicity values around 300 m2/s2 during that time. Model soundings also showing some decent dry air aloft, with mainly moist adiabatic lapse rates later in the afternoon. Better mid level lapse rates exist in the morning before earlier convection works it over a bit. All of this would suggest that damaging winds will be the primary threat, and could occur from late morning through the mid evening. Hail looks more likely in the late morning through mid afternoon, and will also be more likely with any isolated stronger convection that develops ahead of the squall line/QLCS. A few tornadoes can also not be ruled out, but as of right now, look more likely from mid afternoon to the early evening when convective mode looks more linear/QLCS-like. 00Z models tonight and even 12Z runs tomorrow morning will hopefully paint a better picture and help narrow down timeframes a bit more for Tuesday.