AfewUniversesBelowNormal

There's some really nice ice crystal clouds.

NAO is actually a secondary index, because the pattern is mostly west to east and rarely buckles over the top since the 1800s/ice decline.

lol. There is a reason -NAO isn't building. It has to do with Atlantic ocean currents.

It's a really weak low pressure moving into a cold airmass. There isn't much reason the WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge) should flex like that out of nowhere. Thanks for replying/discussion.

Let's look at the next event.. with such a weak Low pressure, I don't know how this will verify. It's a lot of QPF coming as the coastal develops later, and this is almost there.. looking at conditions right now this storm could be something to watch.

NAM is surprisingly warm. I'm not sure it will verify.. seems like a cold bust as the primarily low is trending weaker..

What's going on with models? Why is this storm so warm?

NAM seems to be trending a little bit colder for the next storm. It's like 1-2" of QPF coming, so I'm watching it. Edit: Really surprised this storm isn't trending colder on the NAM..

Not sure this won't just become an EPO ridge.

This is the best I've seen all Winter.. with above average precip.

Sometimes those major Vort's dropping into the West trend more SW, which would send our storm up the coast. I like the run, It's cold.

I'd take this. The potential is there.

I'd love to see this develop in an El Nino.

I would guess this could trend to a freezing rain event.

I don't know.. we have 1-2 major arctic shots coming, It's hard to do a pattern change after that, maybe. The El Nino is in a strengthening trend based on subsurface, which favors +PNA. (look at this new +subsurface wave happening)