AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Neutral ENSO next year is probably warm. The NAO doesn't shift like that. El Nino and it's probably a cold Winter.

Definitely El Nino, subsurface is leading indicator

It will probably be an above average temperature Summer.

It was a pretty classic La Nina Winter, although the eastern North America Polar Vortex (-EPO) has been a trend for the last 5 years. The +NAO was more surprising I think

Yeah, there used to be scientists.

I would go for 12 named storms as the over/under

Real pattern change in 4-5 days to +AO. This El Nino is already looking different.

I'm just realizing how sparse information has become, on this board. Began reading it as, "The initial stages of climate change will not present with an equable climate." equal information will not be known in the begging stages of dissimination of information.... starting reading the momentum of this, remembering the early 2000s and 2012 really. I thought was going to make a point about sociology and how dissimination of scientific information occurs

Visual

2017-2018 was the first Winter on record (since 1948) that had so many 50N-90N blocks. I think there were 8-9 compared to 0 PV that strong anomaly-wise.

This also followed it which is just crazy this early in the season.

The strength of this Greenland block was amazing in October. The ease for these W-E wavelengths to happen so far north so early in the year. It would be hard to imagine a noncold Winter surrounding this. I'm talking about 18-19/19-20. Looking back over CDC analysis maps since 1948, there is a definite 2-3 year trend.

Pretty cool to watch the pattern go directly from La Nina (until ~April 20-21) to El Nino. This will be the first storm to track across the south SW to SE like that in a long time.

I remember someone said the Kelvin wave during La Nina as strong as preceded rises to at least +Neutral even though the net effect was a cooler, more La Nina-like subsurface. And a monster -PNA for a few weeks. I thought this was interesting because it verified, the subsurface warming in the east is movement from that Kelvin Wave. It happened before the La Nina peaked is my point.