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About AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  • Birthday 05/05/1987

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  • Gender
  • Location:
    Bel Air, MD
  • Interests
    balance in the force

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  1. January Banter String

    For this kind of consciousness to be possible... you guys win all kinds of awards
  2. January Banter String

    check out these temps in the west
  3. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    Yeah, this pattern could definitely turn cold. There is nothing in the Northeast Pacific that could hold ridging. So that potential energy heads right into Alaska and the north pole, displacing the polar vortex south.
  4. Summer ice loss 2012 really showed up after the fact

    It continues on and on..
  5. Summer ice loss 2012 really showed up after the fact

    Nothing is forcing the Hemisphere pattern right now except small movements, the biggest difference is less ice in the Bering Straight region and +anomaly showing up as dominant. It will be interesting to see if the Hemisphere sits at the poles with constant +ridging for the next few years or if a big wave occurs...
  6. El Nino

    My theory is that recent warming is intentional through beams or whatever to give a look in the other direction "humans are the cause" reason to what is really happening (may be human still), and enso is valid, but smooths in this situation.
  7. El Nino

    It seems that the 2015-2016 is super interesting in the context of global warming, because it seems that we are way below average in effect. Strong El Nino 1972-1973 Hadley Cell reversal...check Strong El Nino 1982-1983 Hadley Cell reversal...check Strong El Nino 1997-1998 Hadley Cell reversal... kind of different , stretches the Polar Cell Strong El Nino 2015-2016 No Hadley Cell reversal, actually nothing. Stagnant global pattern in a Super El Nino So what happens after this El Nino is, ENSO begins reversing the Poles. This is what I've noticed this Winter - long range forcasting methods are nothing. It's all 60-90N ridging all the time, and La Nina is balancing vs driving a North Pacific Ridge. Since 2015, the earth is basically still or stagnant and enso instead of forcing is balancing. The 15-16 El Nino maxed out at +2.6, and according to what happened, wasn't a primary driver to global pattern, meaning just hypothetically it was at less than 50% of normal potential. Meaning, a +5.2c El Nino is possible, if this is a cycle that continues on in new climate.
  8. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    Yeah, there is pretty good arctic blocking still at 96hr. My posts are wide ranged but this is a cold time for the next 7 days. What's interesting is when the pattern relaxes it shoots right up into the 60s in the middle of Winter... no forcing just relaxation.
  9. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    I'll just say... pattern is too unstable to have a sustained GOA ridge right now. This is where Low's hit friction on the western mountains.
  10. January Banter String

    Am I speaking ahead of the class? We aren't going to have Winter's anymore in 2-3 years. The rate of warming is phenomenal.
  11. Drought

    Regarding ENSO, I think SSTs are so warm right now we would default to +0.5c as the new average, especially in the Spring.
  12. Drought

    Not really possible. Can I have a job?
  13. January Banter String

    Just sayin', your long range forecasting methods don't work
  14. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    Looking at 6z, the drought may put us in the 60s for an extended period of time.
  15. 2010s

    Watch the blue. (click to animate) I've noticed this Winter that long range forecasting methods don't work. There is an X variable that is ahead of everything else, extra warm potential energy. Watch 60-90N blocking continue late Winter... Siberian 500mb +500dm block modeled in 7 days turns into Greenland block into Alaska block, Northern Europe is warm etc. This isn't long range forecasting anymore, it's a like a soup that everything has floated to the top. What's especially interesting is how the mid-latitudes have warmed since 2013, El Nino or not.