AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Yeah, it will be a minor snowstorm.

Nice job, Don. So far in the first half of this November, the Scandinavian block has been a dominant 500mb feature. This continues on models through November 26, making it a November leading anomaly. Since 1948, using both the + there, and - signal surrounding it, these are the top matches. Rolled forward to December, it's a really nice -AAM signal, with the +/- balancing act in the Pacific vs Atlantic January is blocking Dec-Feb Temps

It seems like Mountain Torque..

The orientation makes me think it will be a good Winte.r

I'd like to see this too. I tracked it when I was a teenager and it was ~+25% vs random

Looking good continual https://imgur.com/a/igUvUJc

It's not going to end, models bringing back wet pattern. https://imgur.com/a/igUvUJc

There's your storm. https://imgur.com/a/sskOzSd

Look at this Scandinavian block. I still contest that February 21 last year was no fluke.

-PNA now getting sheared out and stuff. Kind of ridiculous. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Looking at satellite, it's hard to imagine such a long period of dry is coming.

Just like I said, the pattern is turning completely different. Watch the -NAO not really verify minus transient.

When talking about ENSO, I'm mostly referring to the North Pacific. +300dm centered there for more than a few days hasn't happened since July.

Here's 6z GFS ensembles, hr72-204 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Now the 12z Euro is completely different.

12z GFS ensembles are already trending away from -PNA-centered. It will continue.