Ground Scouring

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About Ground Scouring

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    Torchy allapattah
  • Birthday 08/25/1992

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    St. Petersburg, Florida

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  1. The CanSIPS, NMME, and CFSv2 models are suggesting that the current +PDO, which has persisted for two years, will continue through the fall (and perhaps early winter) of 2016. Such a long +PDO stretch without a single monthly negative reading would be unprecedented since the early 1940s. We've already seen 25 consecutive months of positive values. Is there any climate feedback that could favor more frequent/intense or long-lived +PDO cycles in a warmer world? Obviously, they've occurred many times on (and off) record.
  2. Most likely the warming of the Pacific/Indian basins and the attendant Hadley expansion have been the long-term climatic signals favoring drier conditions in CA. The overuse of local resources is worrisome in light of the overall changes in the global climate system. At some point, conditions and overpopulation could make parts of the state uninhabitable, barring technological evolution, which is always likely to help people cope with change. The question is whether there is some point at which even larger sacrifices besides conservation will need to be made.
  3. Long-range guidance (CanSIPS, NMME, CFSv2, etc.) has been fairly consistent in depicting a 2011-type summertime pattern at 500 mb, with a mean ridge over the southern High Plains and a weakness over the western Atlantic. That type of pattern would be mostly very unfavorable for storms to hit the United States, unless homegrown MCV-type/frontal development were to occur in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, storms approaching from the MDR would likely curve out to sea or continue into the Caribbean, where westerly shear may be elevated thanks to the tenacious +PDO (shown by all guidance for ASO '16), with attendant warmer-than-average SST projected off the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. We'll likely have a slightly-above-average season with few, if any, U.S. landfalls. 2011 tracks
  4. Ditto. And I'll be the first to say that my previous (low) expectations for DCA have/are going out the window. What a storm...!
  5. Long-term radar doesn't show the dry slot filling in. The fact that some people are relying on one model showing unrealistic totals shows desperation (though understandably so). DCA, at least, isn't getting more than 5" additional inches out of this storm. The show is all along the Appalachians.
  6. Honestly, by most people's standards this won't end up as historic, simply because the heaviest +SN is out in the boondocks of far northern VA, eastern WV, and western MD. Technically, it's still a HECS, but considering how those areas have seen many similar events, it's not as historic as similar totals would be farther east and south. After all, the areas most affected are along the Appalachians...
  7. Models continue to advertise a potentially significant threat around 30 Jan–1 Feb, with the 12Z deterministic ECMWF and the 12Z EPS showing one of the warmest low-level air masses since 26 Dec 2015 (the date of the Garland, TX, EF4 tornado) over the southern High Plains for multiple days. In fact, even the EPS mean shows 15°C 850-mb temperatures reaching as far north as the TX/OK panhandles on at least two of the days that I mentioned. One important key is the relatively low amplitude of the upcoming pattern, with its lack of significant cold intrusions, which not only may prevent heights from rising too much ahead of any ejecting disturbance, but also allows southwesterly low-level flow to advect richer instability (as well as a noticeable if not strong elevated mixed layer, which is surprising given the subtropical jet) north from the Mexican plateau. The tongue of greatest instability is likely to be at least a bit narrower than projected at this point, but the fact that we are talking about EMLs and a potentially significant southern High Plains threat in a potent El Niño says a lot. For reference:
  8. Both the EPS and the GEFS are signaling a major long-range pattern shift toward the the end of January and the first week of February (especially around 28 Jan–1 Feb), with a restrengthening of the polar vortex and at least a transient +NAO/–EPO/–PNA period taking hold. Even at this range, models are indicating that the polar jet will take over as the dominant stream with strong hints of multiple shortwave impulses intruding into the Pacific Northwest, likely inducing lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. Details regarding ejection and overall evolution are obviously too early to ascertain, but the overall trend toward a more zonal look/longer wavelengths favors a Southeast ridge with likely favorable moisture vectors out of the Caribbean, setting up a potentially decent return flow over the southern High Plains for a few days in advance of any potential ejecting disturbance. There aren't many analogs from strong El Niño events since 1950, but an interesting one is 26 Feb 1958, which was somewhat similar synoptic-wise and featured several significant tornadoes across LA and MS. An interesting difference is that this case may also extend the opportunity for severe weather to the southern High Plains.
  9. Total: 1,229 tornadoes First High Risk: February 1 I'll even add that I expect the first High Risk to affect somewhere in the lower MS Valley (most likely centered around NE LA/E AR/central and N MS/SW TN). It will likely be associated with a multi-day outbreak commencing on January 31 over the southern High Plains (N TX/S OK).
  10. This area really needs an extra radar to fill in holes, considering the demographic vulnerabilities of the area and much of FL (mobile homes, densely packed subdivisions and apartments, elderly snowbirds, etc.). We've already seen two fatalities in a mobile home from that "large and extremely dangerous" tornado near Duette in Manatee County. Seven people were in the home when the tornado hit and did not take any precautions whatsoever. There are numerous mobile homes in the Fort Myers/Cape Coral area as well and is a potential disaster waiting to happen, especially with paltry radar coverage.
  11. Do you have any scientific basis for this statement, besides ALEX? 1937-38 and 1954-55 had a completely different ENSO set-up from this winter season's.
  12. Don, I'd kindly wish to correct you. Reanalysis has upgraded ALICE's peak winds in January to 80 kt on 2 January, making ALEX the second strongest. ALEX also happens to be the second most northeasterly hurricane on record in the basin, behind only VINCE in 2005. Best wishes!
  13. From the official NHC site (Special Message). This would likely mark the first coincidence (simultaneous occurrence) of two January tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Central Pacific, respectively, and definitely marks the first January Atlantic TC since 1978.
  14. Surface analyses by TAFB at 12Z indicate that the surrounding air mass has sufficiently modified so that 90L has practically shed its cold front. The system is more symmetric than previously, there are hints of mid-level anticyclonic flow as the cold-core trough shears out. Satellite imagery shows a steady improvement in organization, with a concentrated area of convection and even a formative eye, though the structure is still a bit tilted overall. The system actually looks to be transitioning straight to tropical status without an intermediate stage, though the switch will only last about a day or so, as the system is already curving northeast and leaving warmer SST (it is already over an area with below-average anomalies thus far). Nevertheless, the system looks to have winds approaching hurricane status at this time (55-60 kt). It seems likely to become a hurricane-strength system shortly. Maybe it will be upgraded in a post-seasonal analysis, making it one of only two Atlantic cyclones to reach hurricane status in January. Amazing...