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Moderator Meteorologist
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About OKpowdah

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    Sam Lillo
  • Birthday 03/15/1991

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    Norman, OK
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    Weather, ultimate frisbee, biking, hiking, saxophone, guitar, food

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  1. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    5-day mean pattern from the GFS for next week has been consistently a picture of just persistent favorable conditions, thanks to ideal wavebreaking from the Plains to Midwest. This is one of those situations where I haven't bothered looking at any individual day yet, and probably won't until morning of. A signal like this in a time-averaged pattern is impressive and something that does not come around every year -- an indication of potential that surely will be realized by at least one or two days.
  2. Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

    2007-8 ... nickel and dimed to death, and enjoyed every bit of it.
  3. And we begin

    The earliest sea ice min on record, by far. Likely the result of a strong upper level cyclone, but wow this is impressive and significant - because we've reversed that positive feedback process a week earlier than normal
  4. I'd recommend using MLCAPE - more representative of the parcels being lifted. Still >4000 right now, which is huge
  5. Definitely has gotten better. Actually Verizon's more annoying hole in service was SE of Norman ...as I drove down 177 toward Sulfur... What provider do you have?
  6. Can we maybe place a moratorium on posting convectively contaminated NAM4km forecast soundings? I'm as guilty as anyone having fun posting interesting ones on twitter, but here we're trying to have a relatively informative discussion on the severe weather threats, and the eye-candy supercell soundings don't actually contribute anything.
  7. That is a wicked good point.
  8. I usually like to see more upper level confluence to the north/northeast to prevent the strung out SSW-NNE oriented sfc low we see next week. That usually helps in the shear department. One reason I've been cautious about getting excited at all. Though there have been big days with similar configurations. Certainly the ramping up of the STJ makes everything more interesting, on a number of levels. GFS consistently producing dew points in the mid to upper 70s, and astronomical CAPE (cue the "CAPE trumps everything" optimists from 4/26)
  9. May 16th Severe Potential

    I'm also wary of the UH streaks up there being associated more with bowing segments. Clearly strong storms, but undercutting + wind profile gets junkier
  10. May 16th Severe Potential

    Waiting for this to suddenly change day-of, but at least for the time being, this is one of very few events this year where the wind profile isn't so much a concern. These forecast hodographs have been pretty.
  11. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Please review the multitude of professionals who swore on their lives that no way could we achieve dew points in the upper 60s because the Gulf coast dew points the day before were in the upper 50s. Respect NWP or get left behind
  12. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    At least a few of us sitting at the Shell on 183 South of Clinton right now
  13. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Guys let's focus on the meteorology of the event here please
  14. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    People get easily stuck on the 5000 CAPE days in Oklahoma. Anything over like 1500 is gravy. CAPE 1500-2000 will not be a limiting factor as far as tornado potential goes. Last Tuesday there were several people that only cared about the huge CAPE and claimed it would "solve" all other issues.
  15. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Last Tuesday was absolutely a bust. A PDS watch with zero strong tornadoes. Even the 10% hatched tor ... First of all, again, zero strong tornadoes. Second, no one made that 10% tor region thinking "Oh we better cover the QLCS tornado threat". No, that was entirely in anticipation of a supercell mode that never transpired. Hence also the error in location of tors, as pointed out above. Finally, the outlook wording was always too strong. Constant mention of high risk, when the tor probs weren't even past the moderate risk threshold, and hail and wind probs were low end moderate. And the only way a high risk was happening without tors would be with an upgrade in wind probs, which was never a threat that was singled out for the day. I want to actually do a study on how many times "high risk" or "upgrade" has been mentioned in past moderate risks. It was absolutely completely unnecessary. The SPC, along with almost everyone else, fell on their butts Tuesday.