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Moderator Meteorologist
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About OKpowdah

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    Sam Lillo
  • Birthday 03/15/1991

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    Norman, OK
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    Weather, ultimate frisbee, biking, hiking, saxophone, guitar, food

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  1. OKpowdah

    May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE

    This is a pretty telling picture. Strong agreement among the CAMs like you said. Widespread severe event looks likely.
  2. OKpowdah

    March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc

    8" more to go apparently
  3. OKpowdah

    March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc

    Maybe they were *forecasting* snow including what's on the ground in Amherst...?
  4. OKpowdah

    March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc

    Figured this still would go in this thread... Lots of fun tomorrow too. Upstream ML low drops over the Northeast, 500mb temps plummet to around -35C. There's no low level cold advection going on behind this storm. Plus low to mid level moisture gets trapped in the broad circulation formed. We're talking total totals >50, even potentially some low level CAPE >100J/kg. Recipe for heavy snow squalls with whiteout conditions, maybe some thunder.
  5. OKpowdah

    March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc

    The upper low is going to give you guys some fun for sure. Especially tomorrow. I mean you even have surface based CAPE tomorrow afternoon. Good recipe for squalls with whiteout conditions.
  6. OKpowdah

    March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc

    Parents back in Keene, NH reporting 3.5" total so far
  7. OKpowdah

    March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc

    For the sake of my own mental health, I'm so happy I'm living in Oklahoma right now. Because if I was back in Keene, NH for the moats in these past two storms .....
  8. The fgen band already overperforming as it is, if the elevated isothermal layer can cool just like a degree more, someone in SE MA is guaranteed 30" with prolonged 3-4/hr rates. Other guarantee is someone just W of this mega-band, and east of some western edge banding, is getting screwed.
  9. Shallow convection. Actually have a little bit of CAPE in the lowest couple kilometers. HRRR has this in the forecast too.
  10. Beginning with the early January bomb and going forward, the last 2 and half months have delivered a very impressive frequency of rapid deepening and deep cyclones inside 65W, and even more remarkably, south of 40N. I mean multiple sub-970 xtrop lows inside 40/65 in a couple months. Amazing.
  11. lol I was tempted to make a map for this storm. I'm sure the snowfall distribution will be as phallic as ever.
  12. DST is EXTREMELY useful now! We need every minute of evening daylight we can get for chasing Prospects of epic banding over eastern New England brought me here to watch y'all get hyped up! What a stretch.
  13. OKpowdah

    May 15-20 Severe Threat

    5-day mean pattern from the GFS for next week has been consistently a picture of just persistent favorable conditions, thanks to ideal wavebreaking from the Plains to Midwest. This is one of those situations where I haven't bothered looking at any individual day yet, and probably won't until morning of. A signal like this in a time-averaged pattern is impressive and something that does not come around every year -- an indication of potential that surely will be realized by at least one or two days.
  14. OKpowdah

    Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

    2007-8 ... nickel and dimed to death, and enjoyed every bit of it.
  15. OKpowdah

    And we begin

    The earliest sea ice min on record, by far. Likely the result of a strong upper level cyclone, but wow this is impressive and significant - because we've reversed that positive feedback process a week earlier than normal